80_FR_28055 80 FR 27961 - Holcim Ltd. and Lafarge S.A.; Analysis of Proposed Consent Orders To Aid Public Comment

80 FR 27961 - Holcim Ltd. and Lafarge S.A.; Analysis of Proposed Consent Orders To Aid Public Comment

FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION

Federal Register Volume 80, Issue 94 (May 15, 2015)

Page Range27961-27970
FR Document2015-11724

The consent agreement in this matter settles alleged violations of federal law prohibiting unfair methods of competition. The attached Analysis to Aid Public Comment describes both the allegations in the draft complaint and the terms of the consent orders--embodied in the consent agreement--that would settle these allegations.

Federal Register, Volume 80 Issue 94 (Friday, May 15, 2015)
[Federal Register Volume 80, Number 94 (Friday, May 15, 2015)]
[Notices]
[Pages 27961-27970]
From the Federal Register Online  [www.thefederalregister.org]
[FR Doc No: 2015-11724]


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FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION

[File No. 141 0129 ]


Holcim Ltd. and Lafarge S.A.; Analysis of Proposed Consent Orders 
To Aid Public Comment

AGENCY: Federal Trade Commission.

ACTION: Proposed consent agreement.

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SUMMARY: The consent agreement in this matter settles alleged 
violations of federal law prohibiting unfair methods of competition. 
The attached Analysis to Aid Public Comment describes both the 
allegations in the draft complaint and the terms of the consent 
orders--embodied in the consent agreement--that would settle these 
allegations.

DATES: Comments must be received on or before June 4, 2015.

ADDRESSES: Interested parties may file a comment at https://ftcpublic.commentworks.com/ftc/holcimlafargeconsent online or on paper, 
by following the instructions in the Request for Comment part of the 
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION section below. Write ``Holcim Ltd. and 
Lafarge

[[Page 27962]]

SA--Consent Agreement; File No. 141-0129'' on your comment and file 
your comment online at https://ftcpublic.commentworks.com/ftc/holcimlafargeconsent by following the instructions on the web-based 
form. If you prefer to file your comment on paper, write ``Holcim Ltd. 
and Lafarge SA--Consent Agreement; File No. 141-0129'' on your comment 
and on the envelope, and mail your comment to the following address: 
Federal Trade Commission, Office of the Secretary, 600 Pennsylvania 
Avenue NW., Suite CC-5610 (Annex D), Washington, DC 20580, or deliver 
your comment to the following address: Federal Trade Commission, Office 
of the Secretary, Constitution Center, 400 7th Street SW., 5th Floor, 
Suite 5610 (Annex D), Washington, DC 20024.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: James Southworth, Bureau of 
Competition, (202-326-2822), 600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW., Washington, 
DC 20580.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Pursuant to Section 6(f) of the Federal 
Trade Commission Act, 15 U.S.C. 46(f), and FTC Rule 2.34, 16 CFR 2.34, 
notice is hereby given that the above-captioned consent agreement 
containing consent orders to cease and desist, having been filed with 
and accepted, subject to final approval, by the Commission, has been 
placed on the public record for a period of thirty (30) days. The 
following Analysis to Aid Public Comment describes the terms of the 
consent agreement, and the allegations in the complaint. An electronic 
copy of the full text of the consent agreement package can be obtained 
from the FTC Home Page (for May 4, 2015), on the World Wide Web, at 
http://www.ftc.gov/os/actions.shtm.
    You can file a comment online or on paper. For the Commission to 
consider your comment, we must receive it on or before June 4, 2015. 
Write ``Holcim Ltd. and Lafarge SA--Consent Agreement; File No. 141-
0129'' on your comment. Your comment--including your name and your 
state--will be placed on the public record of this proceeding, 
including, to the extent practicable, on the public Commission Web 
site, at http://www.ftc.gov/os/publiccomments.shtm. As a matter of 
discretion, the Commission tries to remove individuals' home contact 
information from comments before placing them on the Commission Web 
site.
    Because your comment will be made public, you are solely 
responsible for making sure that your comment does not include any 
sensitive personal information, like anyone's Social Security number, 
date of birth, driver's license number or other state identification 
number or foreign country equivalent, passport number, financial 
account number, or credit or debit card number. You are also solely 
responsible for making sure that your comment does not include any 
sensitive health information, like medical records or other 
individually identifiable health information. In addition, do not 
include any ``[t]rade secret or any commercial or financial information 
which . . . is privileged or confidential,'' as discussed in Section 
6(f) of the FTC Act, 15 U.S.C. 46(f), and FTC Rule 4.10(a)(2), 16 CFR 
4.10(a)(2). In particular, do not include competitively sensitive 
information such as costs, sales statistics, inventories, formulas, 
patterns, devices, manufacturing processes, or customer names.
    If you want the Commission to give your comment confidential 
treatment, you must file it in paper form, with a request for 
confidential treatment, and you have to follow the procedure explained 
in FTC Rule 4.9(c), 16 CFR 4.9(c).\1\ Your comment will be kept 
confidential only if the FTC General Counsel, in his or her sole 
discretion, grants your request in accordance with the law and the 
public interest.
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    \1\ In particular, the written request for confidential 
treatment that accompanies the comment must include the factual and 
legal basis for the request, and must identify the specific portions 
of the comment to be withheld from the public record. See FTC Rule 
4.9(c), 16 CFR 4.9(c).
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    Postal mail addressed to the Commission is subject to delay due to 
heightened security screening. As a result, we encourage you to submit 
your comments online. To make sure that the Commission considers your 
online comment, you must file it at https://ftcpublic.commentworks.com/ftc/holcimlafargeconsent by following the instructions on the web-based 
form. If this Notice appears at http://www.regulations.gov/#!home, you 
also may file a comment through that Web site.
    If you file your comment on paper, write ``Holcim Ltd. and Lafarge 
SA--Consent Agreement; File No. 141-0129'' on your comment and on the 
envelope, and mail your comment to the following address: Federal Trade 
Commission, Office of the Secretary, 600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW., Suite 
CC-5610 (Annex D), Washington, DC 20580, or deliver your comment to the 
following address: Federal Trade Commission, Office of the Secretary, 
Constitution Center, 400 7th Street SW., 5th Floor, Suite 5610 (Annex 
D), Washington, DC 20024. If possible, submit your paper comment to the 
Commission by courier or overnight service.
    Visit the Commission Web site at http://www.ftc.gov to read this 
Notice and the news release describing it. The FTC Act and other laws 
that the Commission administers permit the collection of public 
comments to consider and use in this proceeding as appropriate. The 
Commission will consider all timely and responsive public comments that 
it receives on or before June 4, 2015. For information on the 
Commission's privacy policy, including routine uses permitted by the 
Privacy Act, see http://www.ftc.gov/ftc/privacy.htm.

Analysis of Agreement Containing Consent Orders To Aid Public Comment

    The Federal Trade Commission (``Commission'') has accepted, subject 
to final approval, an Agreement Containing Consent Orders (``Consent 
Agreement'') designed to remedy the anticompetitive effects resulting 
from the proposed acquisition of Lafarge S.A (``Lafarge'') by Holcim 
Ltd. (``Holcim''). Under the terms of the proposed Consent Agreement, 
Lafarge is required to divest to Continental Cement Company 
(``Continental'') its Davenport cement plant and quarry located in 
Buffalo, Iowa along with cement terminals and associated distribution 
assets in Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota; La Crosse, Wisconsin; 
Memphis, Tennessee; and Convent and New Orleans, Louisiana. The Consent 
Agreement also requires Holcim to divest its Skyway slag cement plant 
located in Chicago, Illinois to Eagle Materials Inc. (``Eagle''), its 
slag cement plant located in Camden, New Jersey and its terminal near 
Boston, Massachusetts to Essroc Cement Corporation (``Essroc''), and 
its cement terminals in Grandville and Elmira, Michigan and Rock 
Island, Illinois to Buzzi Unicem USA (``Buzzi''). Finally, the Consent 
Agreement requires Holcim to divest to a buyer or buyers approved by 
the Commission (1) Holcim's Trident, Montana cement plant and two 
related terminals in Alberta, Canada, and (2) Holcim's Mississauga 
cement plant located in Ontario, Canada and related cement terminals in 
Duluth, Minnesota; Detroit and Dundee, Michigan; Cleveland, Ohio; and 
Buffalo, New York.
    The Consent Agreement has been placed on the public record for 30 
days to solicit comments from interested persons. Comments received 
during this period will become part of the public record. After 30 
days, the Commission will again review the Consent

[[Page 27963]]

Agreement and the comments received, and decide whether it should 
withdraw from the Consent Agreement, modify it, or make final the 
Decision and Order (``Order'').

The Transaction

    Pursuant to a Combination Agreement dated July 7, 2014, Holcim 
proposes to acquire 100 percent of the existing shares of Lafarge in a 
transaction valued at $24.95 billion at that time. The Commission's 
Complaint alleges that the proposed acquisition, if consummated, would 
violate Section 7 of the Clayton Act, as amended, 15 U.S.C. 18, and 
Section 5 of the Federal Trade Commission Act, as amended, 15 U.S.C. 
45, by substantially lessening competition in certain regional markets 
in the United States for the manufacture and sale of portland cement 
and slag cement. The proposed Consent Agreement will remedy the alleged 
violations by preserving the competition that would otherwise be 
eliminated by the proposed acquisition.

The Parties

    Holcim is a Swiss-based, vertically integrated global building 
materials company. The company's products include cement, clinker, 
concrete, lime, and aggregates. In the United States, Holcim currently 
operates nine portland cement and three slag grinding plants, as well 
as a large network of distribution assets.
    Lafarge is a vertically-integrated global building materials 
company incorporated in France and headquartered in Paris. Lafarge 
primarily produces and sells cement, aggregates, and ready-mix 
concrete. In the United States, Lafarge currently operates six portland 
cement and three slag cement grinding plants as well as numerous 
distribution terminals.

The Relevant Products and Structure of the Markets

    In the United States, both parties manufacture and sell portland 
cement. Portland cement is an essential ingredient in making concrete, 
a cheap and versatile building material. Because portland cement has no 
close substitute and the cost of cement usually represents a relatively 
small percentage of a project's overall construction costs, few 
customers are likely to switch to other products in response to a small 
but significant increase in the price of portland cement.
    Both parties also manufacture and sell ground, granulated blast 
furnace slag (``slag cement''), a specialty cement product with unique 
characteristics that can serve as a partial substitute for portland 
cement. Customers add slag cement to portland cement to enhance the 
physical properties of a concrete mixture. It is appropriate to treat 
slag cement as a separate relevant product because an insufficient 
number of purchasers would switch to other products in response to a 
small but significant increase in the price of slag cement to render 
such a price increase unprofitable.
    The primary purchasers of portland and slag cement are ready-mix 
concrete firms and producers of concrete products. These customers 
usually pick up portland and slag cement from a cement company's plant 
or terminal in trucks. Because portland and slag cement are heavy and 
relatively cheap commodities, transportation costs limit the distance 
customers can economically travel to pick up the products. The precise 
scope of the area that can be served by a particular plant or terminal 
depends on a number of factors, including the density of the specific 
region and local transportation costs.
    Due to transportation costs, cement markets are local or regional 
in nature. The relevant geographic markets in which to analyze the 
effects of the proposed acquisition on portland cement competition are 
(1) the Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota area; (2) the Duluth, Minnesota 
area; (3) western Wisconsin; (4) eastern Iowa; (5) the Memphis, 
Tennessee area; (6) the Baton Rouge, Louisiana area; (7) the New 
Orleans, Louisiana area; (8) the Detroit, Michigan area; (9) northern 
Michigan; (10) the Grand Rapids, Michigan area; (11) western Montana; 
and (12) the Boston, Massachusetts/Providence, Rhode Island area. The 
proper geographic markets in which to analyze the effects of the 
proposed transaction on slag cement are (1) the Mid-Atlantic region and 
(2) the western Great Lakes region.
    The relevant markets for portland cement and slag cement are 
already highly concentrated. For each of the relevant markets, the 
parties are either the only suppliers in the market, two of only three 
suppliers, or two of only four suppliers.

Entry

    Entry into the relevant portland cement and slag cement markets 
would not be timely, likely, or sufficient in magnitude, character, and 
scope to deter or counteract the anticompetitive effects of the 
proposed transaction. The cost to construct a new portland cement plant 
of sufficient size to be competitive would likely cost over $300 
million and take more than five years to permit, design, and construct 
while the expansion of an existing facility would likely cost hundreds 
of millions of dollars and take four or more years to complete. 
Building competitive cement distribution terminals is also difficult 
and time consuming. It can take more than two years to obtain the 
necessary permits and complete construction of a competitive terminal 
in the relevant markets. New entrants into slag cement markets face the 
additional hurdle of having to obtain a cost-effective source for the 
raw material. There are few domestic sources for granulated blast 
furnace slag because there are a limited number of active blast 
furnaces in the United States. Given the difficulties of entry, it is 
unlikely that any new entry could be accomplished in a timely manner in 
the relevant markets to defeat a likely price increase caused by the 
proposed acquisition.

Effects of the Acquisition

    Unless remedied, the proposed merger would likely result in 
competitive harm in each of the relevant portland and slag cement 
markets. The merger would eliminate substantial head-to-head 
competition between the parties in each of these markets and 
significantly increase market concentration. For many customers in 
these markets, the merger would combine the two closest competitors for 
their business, leaving the merged entity with the power to increase 
prices to these customers unilaterally. Further, because the merger 
would reduce the number of significant competitors to, at most, two or 
three in the relevant markets, it would enhance the likelihood of 
collusion or coordinated action between the remaining competitors by 
reducing impediments to reaching common terms of coordination and 
making it easier to monitor and retaliate against potential deviation 
from a coordinated scheme.

The Consent Agreement

    The proposed Consent Agreement eliminates the competitive concerns 
raised by Holcim's proposed acquisition of Lafarge by requiring the 
parties to divest assets in each relevant market. Lafarge is required 
to divest a cement plant in Buffalo, Iowa and a network of distribution 
terminals along the Mississippi River in Louisiana, Tennessee, 
Wisconsin, and Minnesota to Continental. Continental, in turn, will 
sell its cement terminal located in Bettendorf, Iowa to Lafarge in 
order to eliminate the competitive overlap that would otherwise be 
created by its acquisition of Lafarge's Davenport cement plant. Because 
Lafarge will be

[[Page 27964]]

able to supply the Bettendorf terminal at a comparable or lower cost 
than Continental, the transactions contemplated in the Consent 
Agreement will maintain the competitive status quo in the eastern Iowa 
market. Holcim is required to divest distribution terminals in Illinois 
and Michigan to Buzzi. Holcim is further required to divest a terminal 
in Massachusetts and a slag plant in New Jersey to Essroc and a slag 
plant in Illinois to Eagle. Each of the identified buyers possesses the 
experience and capability to become significant competitors in the 
relevant markets. The parties must accomplish the divestitures to these 
buyers within ten days after the proposed acquisition is accomplished.
    The Commission's goal in evaluating possible purchasers of divested 
assets is to maintain the competitive environment that existed prior to 
the proposed acquisition. If the Commission determines that any of the 
identified buyers is not an acceptable acquirer, the proposed Order 
requires the parties to divest the assets to a Commission-approved 
acquirer within 90 days of the Commission notifying the parties that 
the proposed acquirer is not acceptable. If the Commission determines 
that the manner in which any divestiture was accomplished is not 
acceptable, the Commission may direct the parties, or appoint a 
divestiture trustee, to effect such modifications as may be necessary 
to satisfy the requirements of the Order.
    Finally, the proposed Consent Agreement requires Holcim to divest 
to a buyer or buyers approved by the Commission (1) a cement plant in 
Trident, Montana and two distribution terminals in Alberta, Canada (the 
``Trident Assets''), and (2) a cement plant in Mississauga, Ontario and 
cement terminals in Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, and New York (the 
``Great Lakes Assets''). The divestiture of the Trident plant would 
eliminate the proposed merger's potential anticompetitive impact on 
purchasers of portland cement located in western Montana. The two 
Alberta terminals distribute cement produced at the Trident plant and 
are included in the Consent Agreement in order to preserve the 
viability and marketability of the Trident Assets. Holcim's Mississauga 
plant supplies portland cement into the United States both directly and 
via terminals located in Duluth; Detroit; Dundee, Michigan; Cleveland, 
Ohio; and Buffalo, New York. The divestiture of the Great Lakes Assets 
would remedy the proposed merger's anticompetitive effects in the 
Duluth and Detroit areas. The Cleveland and Buffalo terminals are 
included in the Consent Agreement in order to preserve the viability 
and marketability of the Great Lakes Assets. The Trident Assets and 
Great Lakes Assets are also part of a larger group of Holcim assets 
located in Canada that the Respondents have agreed to divest in order 
to resolve competitive concerns raised by the Canadian Competition 
Bureau (``CCB''). Commission staff worked cooperatively with staff from 
the CCB to ensure that our respective proposed remedies would be 
consistent and effective.
    The proposed Order provides that Holcim must find a buyer (or 
buyers) for the Trident Assets and the Great Lakes Assets, at no 
minimum price, that is acceptable to the Commission, no later than 120 
days from the date on which the parties consummate the proposed 
acquisition. The Consent Agreement also contains an Order to Hold 
Separate and Maintain Assets, which will serve to ensure that these 
assets are held separate and operated independently from the merged 
company and protect the viability, marketability, and competitiveness 
of the divestiture asset packages until the assets are divested to a 
buyer or buyers approved by the Commission.
    To ensure compliance with the proposed Order, the Commission has 
agreed to appoint an Interim Monitor to ensure that Holcim and Lafarge 
comply with all of their obligations pursuant to the Consent Agreement 
and to keep the Commission informed about the status of the transfer of 
the rights and assets to appropriate purchasers.
    The purpose of this analysis is to facilitate public comment on the 
Consent Agreement, and it is not intended to constitute an official 
interpretation of the proposed Decision and Order or to modify its 
terms in any way.

    By direction of the Commission, Commissioner Wright dissenting.
Donald S. Clark,
Secretary.

Statement of the Federal Trade Commission in the Matter of Holcim Ltd. 
and Lafarge S.A.

    The Federal Trade Commission has voted to accept a settlement to 
resolve the likely anticompetitive effects of Holcim Ltd.'s 
(``Holcim'') proposed $25 billion acquisition of Lafarge S.A. 
(``Lafarge''). We have reason to believe that, absent a remedy, the 
proposed acquisition is likely to substantially reduce competition in 
the manufacture and sale of portland cement and slag cement. As we 
explain below, we believe the proposed remedy, tailored to counteract 
the likely anticompetitive effects of the proposed acquisition without 
eliminating any efficiencies that might arise from the combination of 
the two companies, is in the public interest.\1\
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    \1\ Chairwoman Ramirez, Commissioner Brill, Commissioner 
Ohlhausen, and Commissioner McSweeny join in this statement.
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    Holcim is a Switzerland-based, vertically integrated global 
building materials company, with products that include cement, clinker, 
concrete, lime, and aggregates. Lafarge is a France-based, vertically 
integrated global building materials company that primarily produces 
and sells cement, aggregates, and ready-mix concrete.
    The merged company will be the world's largest cement manufacturer, 
with combined 2014 revenues of approximately $35 billion and operations 
in more than 90 countries. Our competitive concerns pertain to specific 
geographic markets in the United States where Holcim and Lafarge each 
make significant cement sales. The proposed merger would likely harm 
competition for the distribution and sale of portland cement, an 
essential ingredient in making concrete, in 12 local or regional 
markets. It would also threaten to lessen competition for the 
distribution and sale of slag cement, a specialty cement product used 
in certain applications, in two other regional markets.
    The merger would create a merger to monopoly in some of the 
challenged relevant markets, while in others at most three competitors 
would remain post-merger. Absent a remedy, the Herfindahl-Hirschman 
Index (``HHI'') in each of these markets would exceed 3,400, making 
every market highly concentrated according to the 2010 Horizontal 
Merger Guidelines.\2\ The increase in HHI in each market would exceed 
900, well above the 200-point change necessary to trigger the 
Guidelines' presumption that the merger is ``likely to enhance market 
power.'' \3\ There is no evidence rebutting this presumption. If 
anything, the evidence suggests that the estimates of market 
concentration understate our concerns.
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    \2\ See 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines Sec.  5.3. The 
threshold at which a market is considered ``highly concentrated'' 
under the Guidelines is 2,500.
    \3\ Id.
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    In each of the relevant markets at issue, there is evidence that 
unilateral anticompetitive effects are likely. Substantial evidence 
demonstrates that, for many customers in the relevant areas, the 
merging firms are their preferred suppliers and that customers have 
benefitted from substantial head-to-head competition between the 
parties

[[Page 27965]]

in negotiating prices for portland and slag cement. Customers in every 
single one of the affected markets expressed concern that their 
inability to play the merging parties off each other would diminish 
their ability to obtain better prices or other favorable terms. As the 
Guidelines note, a combination of two competing sellers ``can 
significantly enhance the ability and incentive of the merged entity to 
obtain a result more favorable to it, and less favorable to the buyer, 
than the merging firms would have offered separately absent the 
merger.'' \4\ In addition, the evidence demonstrates that not all of 
the remaining suppliers in the relevant markets provide customers with 
practical alternatives to the merging parties for a variety of reasons, 
including capacity constraints, lack of distribution assets to supply 
new customers, and downstream vertical integration.\5\
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    \4\ Id. Sec.  6.2.
    \5\ For instance, ready-mix concrete producers are often 
unwilling to purchase cement from their rivals.
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    The evidence also suggests that the proposed acquisition would 
increase the ability and incentives of the combined firm and other 
market participants to engage in coordinated behavior that would result 
in harm to consumers. The relevant markets have characteristics that 
make them susceptible to coordination. They are highly concentrated; 
the products are homogeneous; overall market elasticity is low; 
customer switching costs are low; and sales are relatively small, 
frequent, and usually not made pursuant to long-term contracts. There 
is also a high degree of transparency in these markets. Competitors are 
aware of each other's production capacities, costs, sales volumes, 
prices, and customers. Our concern about the potential for coordinated 
effects in these markets is heightened by evidence that cement 
suppliers, including the same global firms that compete in these 
markets, have expressly colluded in other geographic markets with 
similar characteristics.\6\ By reducing the number of significant 
competitors to only two or three, the proposed merger would make it 
easier for the remaining firms to coordinate, monitor compliance with, 
and retaliate against potential deviation from, a coordinated scheme. 
We therefore have reason to believe that the merger may enhance the 
vulnerability to coordinated effects that already exists in the 
relevant markets.\7\
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    \6\ See, e.g., Press Release, European Commission, The Court of 
Justice Upholds in Substance the Judgment Delivered by the Court of 
First Instance in 2000 Concerning the Cement Cartel, Jan. 7, 2004, 
available at http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_CJE-04-2_en.htm 
(announcing fines of EUR 100 million on cement suppliers for 
collusion); Press Release, German Federal Cartel Office, Highest 
fine in Bundeskartellamt History is Final, April 10, 2013, available 
at http://www.bundeskartellamt.de/SharedDocs/Meldung/EN/Pressemitteilungen/2013/10_04_2013_BGH-Zement.html (announcing fines 
of EUR 380 million on Lafarge, Holcim, and others for collusion); 
Philip Blenkinsop, Belgian Competition Regulator Fines Cement 
Groups, Aug. 31, 2013, available at http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/31/belgium-cement-idUSL6N0GW05U20130831 (reporting EUR 14.7 
million in fines levied by the Belgian Competition Council on Holcim 
and others for collusion); Press Release, Polish Office of 
Competition and Consumer Protection, UOKiK Breaks Cement Cartel, 
Dec. 12, 2013, available at https://uokik.gov.pl/news.php?news_id=10754&news_page=1 (announcing decision of Poland's 
Court of Competition and Consumer Protection to impose fines of PLN 
339 million (~$93 million) on cement suppliers for collusion 
involving Lafarge and others); see generally Merger Guidelines Sec.  
7.2.
    \7\ See Merger Guidelines Sec.  7.1.
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    In his dissent, Commissioner Wright takes issue with our decision 
to seek a remedy in six markets, going to great lengths to argue that 
we are improperly relying solely on the increase in market 
concentration to justify our action, that we are creating new 
presumptions of harm, that we lack a ``credible basis'' on which to 
conclude that the merger may enhance the vulnerability of the relevant 
markets to coordination, and that our action is otherwise inconsistent 
with the Guidelines. We respectfully disagree with Commissioner 
Wright's various characterizations of the Commission's statement in 
this matter. The Guidelines make clear that a substantial increase in 
concentration caused by a merger continues to be a significant factor 
in merger analysis because highly concentrated markets with only two or 
three large firms are more likely to lead to anticompetitive 
outcomes.\8\ Economic theory and empirical research bear this out.\9\ 
As a result, we view the evidence in a merger that reduces the number 
of firms in a relevant market to two or three differently from a merger 
that only reduces the number of firms to six or seven. Where, as here, 
a proposed merger significantly increases concentration in an already 
highly concentrated market, a presumption of competitive harm is 
justified under both the Guidelines and well-established case law.\10\
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    \8\ Id. Sec.  2.1.3 (``Mergers that cause a significant increase 
in concentration and result in highly concentrated markets are 
presumed to be likely to enhance market power, but this presumption 
can be rebutted by persuasive evidence showing that the merger is 
unlikely to enhance market power.''). See also Carl Shapiro, The 
2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines: From Hedgehog to Fox in Forty 
Years, 77 Antitrust L.J. 701, 708 (2010) (explaining that the 
Guidelines' flexible approach ``certainly does not mean that they 
reject the use of market concentration to predict competitive 
effects, as can be seen in Sections 2.1.3 and 5,'' that the 
Guidelines ``recognize that levels and changes in market 
concentration are more probative in some cases than others,'' and 
that ``the Agencies place considerable weight on HHI measures in 
cases involving coordinated effects'') (emphasis in original).
    \9\ See, e.g., Steven C. Salop, The Evolution and Vitality of 
Merger Presumptions: A Decision-Theoretic Approach 11 (Georgetown 
Law Faculty Publications and Other Works, Working Paper No. 1304, 
2014), available at http://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/facpub/1304 (``[V]arious theories of oligopoly conduct--both static and 
dynamic models of firm interaction--are consistent with the view 
that competition with fewer significant firms on average is 
associated with higher prices. . . . Accordingly, a horizontal 
merger reducing the number of rivals from four to three, or three to 
two, would be more likely to raise competitive concerns than one 
reducing the number from ten to nine, ceteris paribus.''); Steffen 
Huck, et al., Two Are Few and Four Are Many: Number Effects from 
Experimental Oligopolies, 53 J. Econ. Behavior & Org. 435, 443 
(2004) (testing the frequency of collusive outcomes in Cournot 
oligopolies and finding ``clear evidence that there is a qualitative 
difference between two and four or more firms''); Timothy F. 
Bresnahan & Peter C. Reiss, Entry and Competition in Concentrated 
Markets, 99 J. Pol. Econ. 977, 1006 (1991) (finding, in a study of 
tire prices, that ``[m]arkets with three or more dealers have lower 
prices than monopolists or duopolists,'' and noting that, ``while 
prices level off between three and five dealers, they are higher 
than unconcentrated market prices'').
    \10\ See Merger Guidelines Sec.  2.1.3; Chicago Bridge & Iron 
Co. v. FTC, 534 F.3d 410, 423 (5th Cir. 2008) (``Typically, the 
Government establishes a prima facie case by showing that the 
transaction in question will significantly increase market 
concentration, thereby creating a presumption that the transaction 
is likely to substantially lessen competition.''); FTC v. H.J. Heinz 
Co., 246 F.3d 708, 716 (D.C. Cir. 2001) (merger to duopoly creates a 
rebuttable presumption of anticompetitive harm through direct or 
tacit coordination).
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    Moreover, despite Commissioner Wright's assertion to the contrary, 
our investigation went beyond consideration of market concentration and 
application of the Guidelines presumption of competitive harm and, as 
noted above, produced additional evidence supporting our belief that 
the effect of the proposed acquisition would be to substantially lessen 
competition and harm cement customers in the relevant markets. On 
coordinated effects, we found numerous characteristics of the market 
making it vulnerable to collusion. It is particularly troubling that 
existing cement suppliers have expressly colluded in other geographic 
markets with similar characteristics. We also examined whether other 
market factors, such as the possibility of entry or expansion, might 
alleviate our competitive concerns. The evidence demonstrates the 
presence of high barriers to entry for both portland cement and slag 
cement, including significant capital costs and regulatory 
requirements. Entry sufficient to deter or counteract the likely harm 
from the proposed transaction would thus be neither timely nor likely.

[[Page 27966]]

    In the face of our competitive concerns, based on what we had 
learned about the nature and conditions of the relevant markets, the 
parties proposed divestitures to remedy our concerns in each of those 
markets. The parties did not comply with our Second Requests. While 
continued investigation may have produced more evidentiary support for 
our complaint, including those markets for which Commissioner Wright 
dissents, we do not think such a course would have been justified. We 
have ample evidence to support our allegations of anticompetitive harm 
and had no reason to burden the parties with the expense and delay of 
further inquiry for the sole purpose of obtaining additional, 
cumulative evidence. Nor would further inquiry have been a good use of 
Commission resources.
    Merger analysis is necessarily predictive. The evidence in this 
case provides us with sufficient reason to believe that the proposed 
acquisition is likely to substantially reduce competition, and there is 
no evidence of countervailing efficiencies that weigh against the 
remedy. We believe that the public interest is best served by remedying 
the competitive concerns as set forth in our proposed consent order.

Statement of Commissioner Joshua D. Wright, Dissenting in Part and 
Concurring in Part In the Matter of Holcim Ltd. and Lafarge S.A.

    The Commission has voted to issue a Complaint and a Decision & 
Order against Holcim Ltd. (``Holcim'') and Lafarge S.A. (``Lafarge'') 
to remedy the allegedly anticompetitive effects of the proposed merger 
of the two companies. I dissent in part from and concur in part with 
the Commission's decision because the evidence is insufficient to 
provide a reason to believe the proposed transaction is likely to 
substantially lessen competition, in violation of Section 7 of the 
Clayton Act, in several of the portland cement markets identified in 
the Complaint.\1\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \1\ As I explain below, I concur with the Commission as to the 
Twin Cities, Duluth, western Wisconsin, New Orleans, western 
Montana, Boston/Providence, the Mid-Atlantic region, and the western 
Great Lakes region; I dissent with the Commission as to eastern 
Iowa, Memphis, Baton Rouge, Detroit, northern Michigan, and Grand 
Rapids.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The Commission articulates coordinated effects and unilateral 
effects theories of harm arising from the proposed transaction in all 
of the fourteen relevant geographic markets defined in the Complaint 
(the ``Relevant Markets'').\2\ Additionally, and untethered to these 
two theories of harm articulated in the 2010 Horizontal Merger 
Guidelines (``Merger Guidelines''), the Commission asserts that 
mergers, such as the proposed transaction, that reduce the number of 
competitors to three or fewer are likely to harm competition. The 
Commission's structural presumption is economically unfounded and 
inappropriate in the vast majority of Relevant Markets. Furthermore, 
there is insufficient evidence to support a coordinated effects theory 
in any Relevant Market and insufficient evidence to support a 
unilateral effects theory in several of the Relevant Markets.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \2\ See Analysis of Agreement Containing Consent Orders to Aid 
Public Comment 3, Holcim Ltd., FTC File No. 141-0129 (May 4, 2015) 
(``For many customers in these markets, the merger would . . . 
leav[e] the merged entity with the power to increase prices . . . 
unilaterally. Further, . . . it would enhance the likelihood of 
collusion or coordinated action between the remaining 
competitors.'').
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In those markets in which I conclude the record evidence supports 
neither a coordinated nor a unilateral effects theory, the Commission 
relies upon little more than the change in market structure to support 
each of its allegations. Without particularized evidence substantiating 
a unilateral effects or coordinated effects theory of harm arising from 
the proposed transaction, a structural theory alone cannot provide a 
sufficient basis to establish reason to believe a transaction violates 
the Clayton Act. It follows, in my view, that the Commission should 
refrain from imposing a remedy in the markets for which the evidence is 
insufficient to support either a coordinated effects theory or a 
unilateral effects theory.

I. The Commission's Structural Theory and Presumption Are Unsupported 
by Economic Evidence

    The Commission argues mergers that reduce the number of competitors 
in a relevant market to three or two are unique in the sense that they 
warrant a presumption of competitive harm and illegality,\3\ but it 
cannot defend its structural presumption upon the basis of economic 
evidence or accumulated empirical knowledge.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \3\ Id. at 3.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The Commission cites in support of its structural theory and 
presumption three academic articles written by economists.\4\ Only two 
offer economic evidence, and the proffered substantiation fails to 
support the claim. The first is an important early entrant into the 
static entry literature examining the relationship between market size 
and the number of entrants in a market, focusing upon isolated rural 
markets.\5\ It strains credulity to argue that Bresnahan and Reiss's 
important analysis of the impact of entry in markets involving doctors, 
dentists, druggists, plumbers, and tire dealers in local and isolated 
areas, where they find the competitive benefits of a second competitor 
are especially important, apply with generality sufficient to support a 
widely applicable presumption of harm based upon the number of firms. 
Indeed, the authors warn against precisely this interpretation of their 
work.\6\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \4\ Id. at 3 n.9.
    \5\ Timothy F. Bresnahan & Peter C. Reiss, Entry and Competition 
in Concentrated Markets, 99 J. Pol. Econ. 977 (1991). While 
Bresnahan and Reiss is an important early contribution to the static 
entry literature, it cannot possibly bear the burden the Commission 
wishes to place upon it. Abstracting from the complexities of market 
definition was necessary for the researchers to isolate entry 
decisions. This is possible when studying the effects of entry by a 
second dentist in a town with a population of less than 1,000, but 
not in most real-world antitrust applications. The authors of the 
study make this point themselves, noting that ``whether this pattern 
appears in other industries remains an open question.'' Id. at 1007.
    \6\ In earlier research using similar empirical techniques and 
data--namely, small rural markets--Bresnahan and Reiss plainly 
reject the notion that the findings should inform views of market 
structure and competition generally: ``We do not believe that these 
markets `stand in' for highly concentrated industries in the sectors 
of the economy where competition is national or global.'' Timothy F. 
Bresnahan & Peter C. Reiss, Do Entry Conditions Vary Across Markets, 
3 Brookings Papers Econ. Activity 833, 868 (1987).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The second article is a laboratory experiment and does not involve 
the behavior of actual firms and certainly cannot provide sufficient 
economic evidence to support a presumption that four-to-three and 
three-to-two mergers in real-world markets will result in 
anticompetitive coordination.\7\ Once again, the authors warn against 
such an interpretation.\8\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \7\ Steffen Huck et al., Two Are Few and Four Are Many: Number 
Effects from Experimental Oligopolies, 53 J. Econ. Behavior & Org. 
435 (2004).
    \8\ Id. at 436 (``The number of firms is not the only factor 
affecting competition in experimental markets. This implies that 
there exists no unique number of firms that determines a definite 
borderline between non-cooperative and collusive markets 
irrespective of all institutional and structural details of the 
experimental markets.'').
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Finally, the Commission cites a draft article, authored by Steve 
Salop, in support of its view that economic evidence supports a 
presumption that four-to-three and three-to-two mergers are 
competitively suspect.\9\ The article does not purport to study or 
provide new economic evidence on the relationship between market 
structure and competition. Thus, it cannot

[[Page 27967]]

support the Commission's proposition.\10\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \9\ Steven C. Salop, The Evolution and Vitality of Merger 
Presumptions: A Decision-Theoretic Approach (Georgetown Law Faculty 
Publications and Other Works, Working Paper No. 1304, 2014), 
available at http://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/facpub/1304/.
    \10\ Nevertheless, to the extent Salop argues in favor of legal 
presumptions in merger analysis, he clarifies that they ``obviously 
should be based on valid economic analysis, that is, proper economic 
presumptions,'' which should be updated ``based on new or additional 
economic factors besides market shares and concentration.'' Id. at 
37, 48. I agree. Additionally, Salop explains that ``[c]ontemporary 
economic learning suggests that concentration be considered when 
undertaking competitive effects analysis--in conjunction with other 
factors suggested by the competitive effects theory--but not treated 
as the sole determinant of post-merger pricing.'' Id. at 13-14. 
Notably, Salop does not endorse a distinction between four-to-three 
mergers or three-to-two mergers and mergers in less concentrated 
markets that justifies a presumption that the former are 
anticompetitive; rather, he merely observes that empirical evidence 
and economic theory do not warrant ``ignoring market shares and 
concentration in merger analysis.'' Id. at 12 (emphasis in 
original).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    There is simply no empirical economic evidence sufficient to 
warrant a presumption that anticompetitive coordination is likely to 
result from four-to-three or three-to-two mergers. Indeed, such a 
presumption would be inconsistent with modern economic theory and the 
analysis endorsed by the Merger Guidelines, which deemphasize 
inferences of competitive harm arising from market structure in favor 
of greater reliance upon particularized evidence of changes in post-
merger incentives to compete.\11\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \11\ See Carl Shapiro, The 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines: 
From Hedgehog to Fox in Forty Years, 77 Antitrust L.J. 701, 707-08 
(2010) (acknowledging the role of market concentration in the 
analysis endorsed in the Merger Guidelines and observing that they 
place less weight upon market concentration and market shares, 
instead emphasizing the importance of direct evidence of changes in 
post-merger incentives to compete and competitive effects). To the 
extent the Commission relies upon Shapiro's caveat that ``changes in 
market concentration are more probative in some cases than others,'' 
Statement of the Federal Trade Commission 3 n.8, Holcim Ltd., FTC 
File No. 141-0129 (May 8, 2015), they fail to explain why, nor have 
I been provided any evidence attempting to establish that, markets 
for portland or slag concrete fit within the subset of cases for 
which it has been established that there is a reliable a 
relationship between market structure and competition. I do not 
quarrel with the notion that such markets exist. We identify them 
over time using economic analysis, empirical evidence, and 
accumulated learning. For example, substantial research has 
identified empirical regularities in the relationship between 
structure and price in generic pharmaceutical markets. See David 
Reiffen & Michael R. Ward, Generic Drug Industry Dynamics, 87 Rev. 
Econ. & Stat. 37 (2005).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    To the contrary, this approach is inconsistent with Agency practice 
and the letter and spirit of the more economically sophisticated 
approach adopted in the Merger Guidelines.\12\ Section 2.1.3 of the 
Merger Guidelines does, as the Commission observes, state that 
``mergers that cause a significant increase in concentration and result 
in highly concentrated markets are presumed to be likely to enhance 
market power.'' \13\ The Merger Guidelines insure against reverting to 
naked structural analysis by making clear that the role of market 
shares and market concentration is ``not an end in itself,'' but rather 
``one useful indicator of likely anticompetitive effects,'' and that 
market concentration is not to be used to ``provide a rigid screen to 
separate competitively benign mergers from anticompetitive ones,'' but 
rather to provide one way to distinguish competitively benign mergers 
from those that warrant closer scrutiny.\14\ To the extent these 
passages evince an ambiguity in the Merger Guidelines with respect to 
the minimum evidentiary burden that must be satisfied to support a 
merger challenge, the Commission should embrace the interpretation more 
consistent with a modern economic approach rather than with the 
obsolete and discredited structural analysis of a prior era.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \12\ Comments of the ABA Section of Antitrust Law on the 
Horizontal Merger Guidelines Revision Project (June 4, 2010), 
available at https://www.ftc.gov/sites/default/files/documents/public_comments/horizontal-merger-guidelines-review-project-proposed-new-horizontal-merger-guidelines-548050-00026/548050-00026.pdf (urging the agencies to ``remove the presumption of 
illegality keyed to the level and increase in the HHI'' because 
``[t]he presumption does not reflect how the Agencies conduct 
investigations [and] is not theoretically warranted'').
    \13\ U.S. Dep't of Justice & Fed. Trade Comm'n, Horizontal 
Merger Guidelines Sec.  7.1 (2010) [hereinafter Merger Guidelines].
    \14\ Id. Sec. Sec.  4, 5.3.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Rather than relying upon economic evidence to defend the 
Commission's structural presumption, the Commission highlights case law 
supporting a presumption of illegality for mergers to duopoly or that 
substantially increase concentration.\15\ As a preliminary matter, case 
law that endorses a wholly structural approach to merger analysis--an 
approach clearly rejected by the Merger Guidelines--does not constitute 
relevant economic evidence. Judicial opinions adopting this approach 
are orthogonal to the proposition in need of economic substantiation: 
that mergers resulting in three- or two-firm markets are likely to 
result in coordination. Indeed, one can find a variety of economically 
dubious propositions adopted in antitrust case law blessed by no less a 
legal authority than the Supreme Court.\16\ But courts' observations 
about the relationship between market structure and competition are not 
relevant to the Commission's adoption of a structural presumption in 
this case.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \15\ Statement of the Federal Trade Commission, supra note 11, 
at 3 (citing Chicago Bridge & Iron Co. v. FTC, 534 F.3d 410, 423 
(5th Cir. 2008) and FTC v. H.J. Heinz Co., 246 F.3d 708, 716 (D.C. 
Cir. 2001)).
    \16\ For example, well-established case law endorses the 
economic proposition that mergers that result in post-merger shares 
of greater than 30% are likely to harm competition, United States v. 
Philadelphia Nat'l Bank, 374 U.S. 321, 364-65 (1963), and that 
mergers resulting in post-merger shares of less than 10% harm 
competition when coupled with a trend toward concentration, United 
States v. Von's Grocery Co., 384 U.S. 270 (1966); United States v. 
Pabst Brewing Co., 384 U.S. 546 (1966).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    I therefore find any reliance upon structural changes alone to be 
economically untenable and insufficient to give me reason to believe 
the proposed transaction will violate Section 7 in the vast majority of 
Relevant Markets.

II. Coordinated Effects Are Unlikely in Any Relevant Market

    The Merger Guidelines describe the conditions under which the 
antitrust agencies will challenge a proposed merger on the basis that 
it is likely to result in anticompetitive coordination. Specifically, 
the Merger Guidelines articulate three necessary conditions that must 
each be satisfied to support a coordinated effects theory: (1) A 
significant increase in concentration, leading to a moderately or 
highly concentrated market, (2) a market vulnerable to coordinated 
conduct, and (3) a credible basis for concluding the transaction will 
enhance that vulnerability.\17\ Thus, the Merger Guidelines establish 
clearly that a highly concentrated market that is already vulnerable to 
coordinated conduct is necessary but not sufficient to support a 
coordinated effects theory. Critically, the Commission must also have 
evidence sufficient to provide a credible basis to conclude the 
transaction will enhance the market's vulnerability to coordinated 
conduct. Such evidence must evince a change in the post-merger 
competitive market dynamics and, in particular, post-merger incentives 
to engage in coordinated pricing. The Merger Guidelines provide the 
elimination of a maverick firm as an illustrative example of the type 
of evidence that would satisfy the third condition and warrant a 
presumption of adverse coordinated effects.\18\ Importantly, the Merger 
Guidelines explain evidence that a merger will eliminate a maverick is 
given weight precisely because it

[[Page 27968]]

changes post-merger incentives to coordinate.\19\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \17\ Merger Guidelines, supra note 13, Sec.  7.1; see also 
Dissenting Statement of Commissioner Joshua D. Wright 3, Fidelity 
National Financial, Inc., FTC File No. 131-0159 (Dec. 23, 2013) 
[hereinafter Wright, Fidelity Dissent].
    \18\ Merger Guidelines, supra note 13, Sec.  7.1.
    \19\ Id. Sec.  2.1.5.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The first and second elements of the Merger Guidelines' coordinated 
effects analysis are not at issue in this case. The Commission's 
investigation revealed evidence supporting a conclusion that the 
Relevant Markets are already highly concentrated and the proposed 
transaction will increase concentration.\20\ Furthermore, the evidence 
supports a conclusion that the markets are vulnerable to coordinated 
conduct.\21\ Nevertheless, the investigation failed to uncover any 
evidence to suggest the proposed transaction will increase post-merger 
incentives to coordinate--that is, there is no record evidence to 
provide a credible basis to conclude the merger alters the competitive 
dynamic in any Relevant Market in a manner that enhances its 
vulnerability to coordinated conduct.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \20\ See Analysis of Agreement Containing Consent Orders to Aid 
Public Comment, supra note 2, at 2.
    \21\ See Statement of the Federal Trade Commission, supra note 
11, at 2 (describing the characteristics of the Relevant Markets 
that render them vulnerable to coordination).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The Commission asserts that the facts that the market is highly 
concentrated, that it is vulnerable to coordination, and that the 
merger reduces ``the number of significant competitors to only two or 
three'' \22\ jointly satisfy the third necessary element that ``the 
Agencies have a credible basis on which to conclude that the merger may 
enhance that vulnerability.''\23\ The Commission's analysis can be read 
in one of two ways. Each is tantamount to the application of a 
structural presumption for coordinated effects claims involving markets 
with three or two firms, each is problematic because it adopts an 
outdated and obsolete structural approach to coordinated effects, and 
each is in significant tension with the economic approach to 
coordinated effects embodied in the Merger Guidelines.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \22\ Id. at 2.
    \23\ Merger Guidelines, supra note 13, Sec.  7.1.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The first interpretation is that the satisfaction of the first and 
second elements of the Merger Guidelines analysis--and particularly the 
demonstration that the merger significantly increases concentration in 
an already concentrated market--is sufficient to simultaneously satisfy 
the third element that the merger enhance post-merger incentives to 
coordinate. This interpretation renders the third element of Section 
7.1 entirely superfluous. The more logical explanation of the third 
element is that a crucial, additional type of information is required 
to illuminate how the merger changes the merged firm's incentives to 
coordinate. The Commission's application completely overlooks the 
economic relevance of the third element.
    The second plausible interpretation of the Commission's analysis is 
that the reduction in the number of competitors in a market is itself 
sufficient evidence to provide a credible basis that a merger will 
enhance a market's vulnerability to coordination and thus satisfy the 
third element of the Merger Guidelines' coordinated effects analysis. 
Under this reading, the Commission relies upon the fact that the 
proposed transaction reduces the number of competitors in each Relevant 
Market by one firm, either from four to three or from three to two.\24\ 
For example, the Majority Statement asserts that the proposed 
transaction might enhance the likelihood of coordination by ``mak[ing] 
it easier for the remaining firms to coordinate, monitor compliance 
with, and retaliate against potential deviation from, a coordinated 
scheme.'' \25\ These are generic observations that are true of any 
merger that reduces the number of firms in a market; they are not 
particularized to the proposed transaction or to any Relevant Market 
nor do they establish a credible basis to conclude that post-merger 
incentives to coordinate will increase. The observation that a market 
with N firms will, after the merger, have N-1 firms is simply 
insufficient without more to establish the required credible basis. 
This is true even when a merger reduces the number of firms from four 
to three or from three to two. The Commission offers no explanation as 
to why the Merger Guidelines would go through the trouble of requiring 
a credible basis to believe a merger will change the market's 
competitive dynamics that enhances the market's vulnerability to 
coordinated conduct, in addition to an increase in market 
concentration, in order to substantiate a coordinated effects merger 
challenge if the latter were considered sufficient to satisfy both 
elements.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \24\ See Statement of the Federal Trade Commission, supra note 
11, at 2 (taking the view that a reduction of competitors to three 
or two firms in the relevant market justify a presumption of 
competitive harm).
    \25\ Id. at 2.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As I have stated previously, ``there is no basis in modern 
economics to conclude with any modicum of reliability that increased 
concentration--without more--will increase post-merger incentives to 
coordinate.'' \26\ Janusz Ordover, in a leading treatment of the 
economics of coordinated effects, similarly explains that ``[i]t is now 
well understood that it is not sufficient when gauging the likelihood 
of coordinated effects from a merger to simply observe that because the 
merger reduces the number of firms, it automatically lessens the 
coordination problem facing the firms and enhances their incentives to 
engage in tacit collusion; far from it.''\27\ Without particularized 
evidence that the proposed transaction will enhance incentives to 
coordinate post-merger, I am unable to conclude there is reason to 
believe it is likely to substantially lessen competition in violation 
of Section 7.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \26\ Wright, Fidelity Dissent, supra note 17, at 3.
    \27\ Janusz A. Ordover, Coordinated Effects, in 2 Issues in 
Competition Law and Policy 1359, 1367 (ABA Section of Antitrust Law 
2008) (``It is quite clear . . . that a reduction in the number of 
firms and concomitant increases in concentration do not necessarily 
make collusion inevitable or even more likely, stable, or 
complete.'').
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

III. Unilateral Effects Are Unlikely in Some of the Relevant Markets

    The Commission alleges the proposed transaction is likely to result 
in unilateral price effects in the Relevant Markets. Unilateral effects 
arise when the reduction in direct competition between merging firms is 
sufficient to create post-merger market power. The Merger Guidelines 
articulate a variety of potential unilateral effects theories, 
including merger to monopoly, merger of firms producing very close 
substitutes in a differentiated products market, merger of sellers 
competing in bargaining and auction markets, and mergers in homogeneous 
goods markets making post-merger output suppression strategies more 
profitable.\28\ The unifying theme of the unilateral effects analysis 
contemplated by the Merger Guidelines is that a particularized showing 
that post-merger competitive constraints are weakened or eliminated by 
the merger is superior to relying solely upon inferences of competitive 
effects drawn from changes in market structure.\29\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \28\ Merger Guidelines, supra note 13, Sec.  6.
    \29\ See Shapiro, supra note 11, Part III (explaining the Merger 
Guidelines' unilateral effects analysis, the types of evidence that 
support such analysis, and the relative analytical weakness of 
inferences of competitive harm drawn from changes in market 
structure).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The potential unilateral effects theories in this case fall broadly 
within one of three categories. The first category involves 
straightforward merger-to-monopoly markets. In these markets, the 
theory of harm is that Holcim and Lafarge are the only two meaningful 
suppliers for all customers in the Relevant Market. The second

[[Page 27969]]

category involves markets in which Holcim and Lafarge face some 
competition, but the proposed transaction will result in a merger to 
monopoly for a substantial subset of customers and will allow the 
merged entity to unilaterally increase market prices. The third 
category includes markets where the proposed transaction will reduce 
the number of competitors in the Relevant Market to three or two, and 
the remaining competitors will be unable or unwilling to compete for 
market share--for example, because of capacity constraints, leaving the 
merged entity with the ability to unilaterally raise prices. Each of 
these theories requires particularized evidence sufficient to establish 
reason to believe the proposed transaction violates Section 7 of the 
Clayton Act. I conclude the available evidence is sufficient to do so 
in some Relevant Markets and insufficient in others.
    Unilateral price effects are ``most apparent in a merger to 
monopoly in a relevant market.'' \30\ Basic economic theory provides a 
robust and reliable inference that a merger to monopoly or near 
monopoly is likely to result in anticompetitive effects. A rational 
firm with little or no competitive constraints will set prices or 
choose output to maximize its profits; it can be expected that a 
rational firm acquiring such monopoly power will adjust prices and 
output accordingly. No further economic evidence is required to 
substantiate an enforcement action based upon likely unilateral price 
effects and to establish reason to believe a merger to monopoly or near 
monopoly is likely to violate Section 7 of the Clayton Act. This 
analysis applies to at least one of the Relevant Markets.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \30\ Merger Guidelines, supra note 13, Sec.  6.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The analysis is necessarily more nuanced for theories falling 
within the second category of theories of unilateral price effects. 
These theories involve Relevant Markets where the proposed transaction 
would reduce the number of competitors from four to three or three to 
two, and the market share for the merged entity would not be large 
enough to infer it would have the power to raise market prices 
unilaterally. In these markets, particularized evidence is required to 
establish reason to believe the merged firm will gain unilateral 
pricing power. In many Relevant Markets, staff was successful in 
uncovering the required evidence. For example, in some Relevant 
Markets, there was evidence of a significant subset of customers for 
whom a sole market participant would be the only remaining acceptable 
supplier, due either to physical proximity or to some other preference 
rendering alternatives an unacceptable source of portland or slag 
cement. The Commission's example of ready-mix concrete producers,\31\ a 
relevant subset of customers, is an illustrative example here. In some 
Relevant Markets, the evidence supports a finding that such customers 
would continue to find their vertically integrated rivals to be an 
unacceptable source of portland cement, even if the sole remaining 
vertically unintegrated portland cement producer raised its prices 
after the merger. In the Relevant Markets for which credible evidence 
of this type is available, I find it sufficient to create reason to 
believe the merger is likely to result in competitive harm. Several 
other Relevant Markets fall into this category.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \31\ See Statement of the Federal Trade Commission, supra note 
11, at 2 n.5.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In other Relevant Markets, the allegation that there will remain 
only one acceptable supplier for a significant subset of customers 
after the proposed transaction lacks evidentiary support. Specifically, 
in these markets, the record evidence does not indicate that a material 
number of customers view Holcim and Lafarge as closest supply 
alternatives or that they view other potential suppliers as 
unacceptable supply sources and would continue to do so in the face of 
a post-merger unilateral price increase.\32\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \32\ The role of ready-mix customers in the competitive analysis 
is again illustrative. In some Relevant Markets the available 
evidence indicates there are some ready-mix customers that purchase 
from rivals and others that do not, but the totality of the evidence 
fails to establish the existence of a significant set of customers 
that view vertically integrated suppliers as unacceptable or would 
continue to do so in the face of a post-merger unilateral price 
increase.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The final category of potential unilateral effects theories, like 
the second category, also involves Relevant Markets where the proposed 
transaction would reduce the number of competitors from four to three 
or three to two, but the post-merger market share would not be large 
enough to infer it would have the power to raise market prices 
unilaterally. However, unlike the second category, in these Relevant 
Markets, it is not customer preference that limits the number of 
available competitors to one. Rather, in these Relevant Markets, the 
proposed transaction is effectively a merger to monopoly or near 
monopoly because alternative suppliers would be unwilling or unable to 
compete with the merged entity in the face of a price increase. In some 
Relevant Markets, the investigation uncovered particularized evidence 
sufficient to establish a reason to believe such unilateral effects are 
likely, including evidence that other competitors are experiencing, or 
soon will experience, capacity constraints, rendering them unable or 
unwilling to compete for market share, or that other suppliers will not 
constrain the merged entity's prices. Several Relevant Markets fall 
into this third category.
    Relevant Markets where the ``reason to believe'' standard is not 
satisfied lacked record evidence necessary to corroborate any of these 
three theories.\33\ Indeed, with respect to the Relevant Markets for 
which I dissent from the Commission's decision, it is my view that the 
investigation failed to adduce particularized evidence to elevate the 
anticipated likelihood of competitive effects from ``possible'' to 
``likely'' under any of these theories. Without this necessary 
evidence, the only remaining factual basis upon which the Commission 
rests its decision is the fact that the merger will reduce the number 
of competitors from four to three or three to two. This is simply not 
enough evidence to support a reason to believe the proposed transaction 
will violate the Clayton Act in these Relevant Markets.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \33\ One other potentially plausible theory is that customers 
refuse to sole source their product, and therefore that two or more 
competitors are necessary to prevent post-merger unilateral effects. 
There is insufficient record evidence to indicate customers would be 
unwilling to switch from dual- to single-sourced supply in the event 
of a post-merger price increase.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

IV. Conclusion

    Prior to entering into a consent agreement with the merging 
parties, the Commission must first find reason to believe that a merger 
likely will substantially lessen competition under Section 7 of the 
Clayton Act. A presumption that such reason to believe exists when a 
merger decreases in the number of competitors in a market to three or 
two is misguided. Additionally, when the Commission alleges coordinated 
or unilateral effects arising from a proposed transaction, this 
standard requires more than a mere counting of pre- and post-merger 
firms. In particular, reason to believe a proposed transaction is 
likely to result in coordinated effects requires evidence--absent from 
the record here--that the merger will enhance a market's vulnerability 
to coordinated pricing, and not just that it takes place in a market 
that is already concentrated. In the absence of such a particularized 
showing, the Commission's approach to coordinated effects here reduces 
to a strict structural presumption

[[Page 27970]]

unsupported by modern economics and at odds with the Merger Guidelines.
    Similarly, substantiating a unilateral effects theory requires 
particularized evidence--also absent from the record here in some 
Relevant Markets--that a merger will reduce or eliminate competitive 
constraints, permitting the merged entity to increase prices. Without 
such evidence, a unilateral effects theory reduces to little more than 
a complaint about market structure coupled with speculation about the 
circumstances under which unilateral effects might occur in a post-
merger world. The Merger Guidelines contemplate a more rigorous 
analysis.
    This is not to suggest the ``reason to believe'' standard requires 
access to every piece of relevant information and a full and complete 
economic analysis of a proposed transaction, regardless of whether the 
parties wish to propose divestitures before complying with a Second 
Request. Rather, the standard requires only evidence sufficient to 
establish that competitive harm is likely. Such evidence, although 
quite minimal--indeed, a handful of facts in most instances--is indeed 
available in some Relevant Markets in this matter, and it is in those 
markets that I concur with the Commission's decision. While I 
appreciate the practical complications of requesting additional 
information during the course of a merger investigation, as well as the 
desire to conduct efficient investigations, these important pragmatic 
considerations do not trump the Commission's primary obligation to 
collect evidence sufficient to establish reason to believe the merger 
will harm competition before issuing a complaint and accepting a 
consent.
    For the reasons I explain above, I find reason to believe the 
proposed transaction is likely to result in unilateral price effects, 
and thus violate the Clayton Act, in the Twin Cities, Duluth, western 
Wisconsin, New Orleans, western Montana, Boston/Providence, the Mid-
Atlantic region, and the western Great Lakes region. I conclude there 
is no reason to believe the proposed transaction will violate Section 7 
in eastern Iowa, Memphis, Baton Rouge, Detroit, northern Michigan, and 
Grand Rapids; it follows that I believe the Commission should refrain 
from imposing a remedy in these markets.

[FR Doc. 2015-11724 Filed 5-14-15; 8:45 am]
 BILLING CODE 6750-01-P



                                                                                   Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 94 / Friday, May 15, 2015 / Notices                                                     27961

                                                  Rather concentration is but one aspect                  such research has been done in this                   minimum level of evidence required to
                                                  of the inquiry aimed at better                          market. Accordingly, unlike in generic                substantiate a merger challenge. I reject
                                                  understanding post-merger incentives to                 pharmaceutical markets, we have no                    the view that it should be a standard
                                                  compete. The predictive power of                        evidence to conclude that a simple                    that should be relaxed because the
                                                  market share and market concentration                   reduction in the number of firms in this              merging parties offer a remedy.31 The
                                                  data is informed by economic theory                     market is likely to lead to higher prices             Commission is primarily a law
                                                  and available empirical evidence. There                 and lower output. Simply assuming                     enforcement agency, albeit one that
                                                  is no empirical evidence sufficient to                  such a relationship exists in this market             largely conducts it business by entering
                                                  establish a generally applicable                        without any evidence to suggest that it               into consents with merging parties.
                                                  presumption that mergers that reduce                    does harkens back to the bad old days                 Making the consent process more
                                                  the number of firms to three or two are                 of the first half of the 20th century,                efficient and predictable is a laudable
                                                  likely to harm competition.24 Further,                  when the structure-conduct-                           goal; but we must not allow pursuit of
                                                  the Commission’s reliance upon such                     performance paradigm was in vogue.                    a more efficient consent process to
                                                  shorthand structural presumptions                          To summarize, there are three-to-two               distort our evaluation of the substantive
                                                  untethered from empirical evidence                      mergers that give rise to unilateral                  merits. To do so, as in my view we have
                                                  subsidize a shift away from the more                    effects, and three-to-two mergers that                here, risks in the long run reducing the
                                                  rigorous and reliable economic tools                    give rise to coordinated effects. It is our           institutional capital of the agency in
                                                  embraced by the Merger Guidelines in                    burden to show that this three-to-two                 magnitudes far greater than any
                                                  favor of convenient but obsolete and                    merger is likely anticompetitive. The                 potential cost savings from truncating
                                                  less reliable economic analysis.                        Commission must find sufficient                       an investigation.
                                                     This is not to say that evidence of                  evidence to support an inference of                      For these reasons, I cannot join my
                                                  changes in market structure cannot ever                 likely economic harm to consumers.                    colleagues in supporting the consent
                                                  warrant such a presumption. It does                     The heavy degree of reliance upon a                   order because I do not have reason to
                                                  when the evidence warrants as much.                     structural presumption in this case is                believe the transaction violates Section
                                                  The Commission has in certain contexts                  not sufficient to do so.                              7 of the Clayton Act nor that a consent
                                                  found reason to believe competition                        Finally, the Commission and                        ordering divestiture is in the public
                                                  would be substantially lessened based                   Commissioner Ohlhausen each claim                     interest.
                                                  simply upon a reduction of firms in the                 that the quantity, and presumably the
                                                                                                                                                                [FR Doc. 2015–11721 Filed 5–14–15; 8:45 am]
                                                  relevant market. See Actavis plc-Forest                 quality, of the evidence is not the same
                                                                                                                                                                BILLING CODE 6750–01–P
                                                  Laboratories 25 and also Akorn-Hi-Tech                  for investigations truncated by remedy
                                                  Pharmacal,26 which both involve                         proposals compared to cases where a
                                                  generic pharmaceutical markets. The                     full phase investigation is completed or              FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION
                                                  Commission was able to draw                             compared to a completed trial,
                                                  conclusions about the relationship                      respectively.28 While this observation is             [File No. 141 0129 ]
                                                  between price and the number of firms                   an accurate description of the pragmatic
                                                  in generic pharmaceutical markets                       reality of conducting law enforcement                 Holcim Ltd. and Lafarge S.A.; Analysis
                                                  because substantial research has been                   investigations, I do not agree with the               of Proposed Consent Orders To Aid
                                                  done to establish that such a                           implication that the quantum and                      Public Comment
                                                  relationship exists.27 Indeed, the cases                quality of evidence needed to satisfy the             AGENCY:    Federal Trade Commission.
                                                  in the pharmaceutical industry are the                  ‘‘reason to believe’’ standard should                 ACTION:   Proposed consent agreement.
                                                  exceptions that prove the rule that the                 turn on whether and when a remedy
                                                  Commission needs to do more than                        proposal is offered during an                         SUMMARY:   The consent agreement in this
                                                  count the number of firms in a market                   investigation. The idea is that we should             matter settles alleged violations of
                                                  to have reason to believe a substantial                 ‘‘take into account the need for                      federal law prohibiting unfair methods
                                                  lessening of competition is likely. No                  predictability and fairness for merging               of competition. The attached Analysis to
                                                                                                          parties in these circumstances’’ 29 and               Aid Public Comment describes both the
                                                     24 See Statement of Commissioner Joshua D.
                                                                                                          considerations whether it is                          allegations in the draft complaint and
                                                  Wright 3–5, Holcim Ltd., FTC File No. 141–0129
                                                  (May 8, 2015).
                                                                                                          ‘‘appropriate to subject the parties to the           the terms of the consent orders—
                                                     25 Analysis of Agreement Containing Consent          added expense and delay of a full phase               embodied in the consent agreement—
                                                  Orders to Aid Public Comment 2, Actavis plc, FTC        investigation.’’ 30 I fully support the               that would settle these allegations.
                                                  File No. 141–0098 (June 30, 2014) (‘‘In generic         agency identifying opportunities to                   DATES: Comments must be received on
                                                  pharmaceutical product markets, price generally
                                                  decreases as the number of generic competitors
                                                                                                          lower the administrative costs of                     or before June 4, 2015.
                                                  increases. Accordingly, the reduction in the number     antitrust investigations and believe                  ADDRESSES: Interested parties may file a
                                                  of suppliers within each relevant market would          there to be ample opportunity to do so.               comment at https://
                                                  likely have a direct and substantial anticompetitive    But attempts to operate a more efficient
                                                  effect on pricing.’’).
                                                                                                                                                                ftcpublic.commentworks.com/ftc/
                                                     26 Analysis of Agreement Containing Consent
                                                                                                          law enforcement system must satisfy the               holcimlafargeconsent online or on
                                                  Orders to Aid Public Comment 3, Akorn                   constraint, required by law, that there is            paper, by following the instructions in
                                                  Enterprises, Inc., FTC File No. 131–0221 (Apr. 14,      reason to believe a transaction violates              the Request for Comment part of the
                                                  2014) (‘‘In generic pharmaceuticals markets, price is   Section 7 of the Clayton Act. That                    SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION section
                                                  heavily influenced by the number of participants
                                                  with sufficient supply.’’).
                                                                                                          standard sets a relatively low bar for the            below. Write ‘‘Holcim Ltd. and Lafarge
                                                     27 See David Reiffen & Michael R. Ward, Generic
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                                                                                                            28 See Statement of the Federal Trade
                                                  Drug Industry Dynamics, 87 Rev. Econ. & Stat. 37                                                                 31 That said, as I stated in Holcim Ltd., I am not

                                                  (2005). As an aside, given that we are now ten years    Commission, supra note 9, at 3 n.7; see also          suggesting the ‘‘reason to believe’’ standard
                                                  removed from the publication of this important          Separate Statement of Commissioner Maureen K.         ‘‘requires access to every piece of relevant
                                                  study and over twenty years removed from the            Ohlhausen 1, ZF Friedrichshafen AG, FTC File No.      information and a full and complete economic
                                                  sample period, it might be worth revisiting this        141–0235 (May 8, 2015).                               analysis of a proposed transaction, regardless of
                                                                                                            29 Separate Statement of Commissioner Maureen
                                                  question with fresher data if the Commission                                                                  whether the parties wish to propose divestitures
                                                  intends to continue relying upon inferences of          K. Ohlhausen, supra note 28, at 2.                    before complying with a Second Request.’’ See
                                                  competitive harm from market structure in the             30 Statement of the Federal Trade Commission,       Statement of Commissioner Joshua D. Wright, supra
                                                  generic pharmaceutical market.                          supra note 9, at 3 n.7.                               note 24, at 11.



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                                                  27962                            Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 94 / Friday, May 15, 2015 / Notices

                                                  SA—Consent Agreement; File No. 141–                     information, like anyone’s Social                          submit your paper comment to the
                                                  0129’’ on your comment and file your                    Security number, date of birth, driver’s                   Commission by courier or overnight
                                                  comment online at https://                              license number or other state                              service.
                                                  ftcpublic.commentworks.com/ftc/                         identification number or foreign country                     Visit the Commission Web site at
                                                  holcimlafargeconsent by following the                   equivalent, passport number, financial                     http://www.ftc.gov to read this Notice
                                                  instructions on the web-based form. If                  account number, or credit or debit card                    and the news release describing it. The
                                                  you prefer to file your comment on                      number. You are also solely responsible                    FTC Act and other laws that the
                                                  paper, write ‘‘Holcim Ltd. and Lafarge                  for making sure that your comment does                     Commission administers permit the
                                                  SA—Consent Agreement; File No. 141–                     not include any sensitive health                           collection of public comments to
                                                  0129’’ on your comment and on the                       information, like medical records or                       consider and use in this proceeding as
                                                  envelope, and mail your comment to the                  other individually identifiable health                     appropriate. The Commission will
                                                  following address: Federal Trade                        information. In addition, do not include                   consider all timely and responsive
                                                  Commission, Office of the Secretary,                    any ‘‘[t]rade secret or any commercial or                  public comments that it receives on or
                                                  600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW., Suite                      financial information which . . . is                       before June 4, 2015. For information on
                                                  CC–5610 (Annex D), Washington, DC                       privileged or confidential,’’ as discussed                 the Commission’s privacy policy,
                                                  20580, or deliver your comment to the                   in Section 6(f) of the FTC Act, 15 U.S.C.                  including routine uses permitted by the
                                                  following address: Federal Trade                        46(f), and FTC Rule 4.10(a)(2), 16 CFR                     Privacy Act, see http://www.ftc.gov/ftc/
                                                  Commission, Office of the Secretary,                    4.10(a)(2). In particular, do not include                  privacy.htm.
                                                  Constitution Center, 400 7th Street SW.,                competitively sensitive information                        Analysis of Agreement Containing
                                                  5th Floor, Suite 5610 (Annex D),                        such as costs, sales statistics,                           Consent Orders To Aid Public Comment
                                                  Washington, DC 20024.                                   inventories, formulas, patterns, devices,
                                                                                                          manufacturing processes, or customer                          The Federal Trade Commission
                                                  FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
                                                                                                          names.                                                     (‘‘Commission’’) has accepted, subject to
                                                  James Southworth, Bureau of                                                                                        final approval, an Agreement
                                                                                                             If you want the Commission to give
                                                  Competition, (202–326–2822), 600                                                                                   Containing Consent Orders (‘‘Consent
                                                                                                          your comment confidential treatment,
                                                  Pennsylvania Avenue NW., Washington,                                                                               Agreement’’) designed to remedy the
                                                                                                          you must file it in paper form, with a
                                                  DC 20580.                                                                                                          anticompetitive effects resulting from
                                                                                                          request for confidential treatment, and
                                                  SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Pursuant                     you have to follow the procedure                           the proposed acquisition of Lafarge S.A
                                                  to Section 6(f) of the Federal Trade                    explained in FTC Rule 4.9(c), 16 CFR                       (‘‘Lafarge’’) by Holcim Ltd. (‘‘Holcim’’).
                                                  Commission Act, 15 U.S.C. 46(f), and                    4.9(c).1 Your comment will be kept                         Under the terms of the proposed
                                                  FTC Rule 2.34, 16 CFR 2.34, notice is                   confidential only if the FTC General                       Consent Agreement, Lafarge is required
                                                  hereby given that the above-captioned                   Counsel, in his or her sole discretion,                    to divest to Continental Cement
                                                  consent agreement containing consent                    grants your request in accordance with                     Company (‘‘Continental’’) its Davenport
                                                  orders to cease and desist, having been                 the law and the public interest.                           cement plant and quarry located in
                                                  filed with and accepted, subject to final                  Postal mail addressed to the                            Buffalo, Iowa along with cement
                                                  approval, by the Commission, has been                   Commission is subject to delay due to                      terminals and associated distribution
                                                  placed on the public record for a period                heightened security screening. As a                        assets in Minneapolis and St. Paul,
                                                  of thirty (30) days. The following                      result, we encourage you to submit your                    Minnesota; La Crosse, Wisconsin;
                                                  Analysis to Aid Public Comment                          comments online. To make sure that the                     Memphis, Tennessee; and Convent and
                                                  describes the terms of the consent                      Commission considers your online                           New Orleans, Louisiana. The Consent
                                                  agreement, and the allegations in the                   comment, you must file it at https://                      Agreement also requires Holcim to
                                                  complaint. An electronic copy of the                    ftcpublic.commentworks.com/ftc/                            divest its Skyway slag cement plant
                                                  full text of the consent agreement                      holcimlafargeconsent by following the                      located in Chicago, Illinois to Eagle
                                                  package can be obtained from the FTC                    instructions on the web-based form. If                     Materials Inc. (‘‘Eagle’’), its slag cement
                                                  Home Page (for May 4, 2015), on the                     this Notice appears at http://                             plant located in Camden, New Jersey
                                                  World Wide Web, at http://www.ftc.gov/                  www.regulations.gov/#!home, you also                       and its terminal near Boston,
                                                  os/actions.shtm.                                        may file a comment through that Web                        Massachusetts to Essroc Cement
                                                     You can file a comment online or on                  site.                                                      Corporation (‘‘Essroc’’), and its cement
                                                  paper. For the Commission to consider                      If you file your comment on paper,                      terminals in Grandville and Elmira,
                                                  your comment, we must receive it on or                  write ‘‘Holcim Ltd. and Lafarge SA—                        Michigan and Rock Island, Illinois to
                                                  before June 4, 2015. Write ‘‘Holcim Ltd.                Consent Agreement; File No. 141–0129’’                     Buzzi Unicem USA (‘‘Buzzi’’). Finally,
                                                  and Lafarge SA—Consent Agreement;                       on your comment and on the envelope,                       the Consent Agreement requires Holcim
                                                  File No. 141–0129’’ on your comment.                    and mail your comment to the following                     to divest to a buyer or buyers approved
                                                  Your comment—including your name                        address: Federal Trade Commission,                         by the Commission (1) Holcim’s
                                                  and your state—will be placed on the                    Office of the Secretary, 600                               Trident, Montana cement plant and two
                                                  public record of this proceeding,                       Pennsylvania Avenue NW., Suite CC–                         related terminals in Alberta, Canada,
                                                  including, to the extent practicable, on                5610 (Annex D), Washington, DC 20580,                      and (2) Holcim’s Mississauga cement
                                                  the public Commission Web site, at                      or deliver your comment to the                             plant located in Ontario, Canada and
                                                  http://www.ftc.gov/os/                                  following address: Federal Trade                           related cement terminals in Duluth,
                                                  publiccomments.shtm. As a matter of                     Commission, Office of the Secretary,                       Minnesota; Detroit and Dundee,
                                                  discretion, the Commission tries to                     Constitution Center, 400 7th Street SW.,                   Michigan; Cleveland, Ohio; and Buffalo,
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                                                  remove individuals’ home contact                        5th Floor, Suite 5610 (Annex D),                           New York.
                                                  information from comments before                        Washington, DC 20024. If possible,                            The Consent Agreement has been
                                                  placing them on the Commission Web                                                                                 placed on the public record for 30 days
                                                  site.                                                      1 In particular, the written request for confidential   to solicit comments from interested
                                                     Because your comment will be made                    treatment that accompanies the comment must                persons. Comments received during this
                                                                                                          include the factual and legal basis for the request,
                                                  public, you are solely responsible for                  and must identify the specific portions of the
                                                                                                                                                                     period will become part of the public
                                                  making sure that your comment does                      comment to be withheld from the public record. See         record. After 30 days, the Commission
                                                  not include any sensitive personal                      FTC Rule 4.9(c), 16 CFR 4.9(c).                            will again review the Consent


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                                                                                   Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 94 / Friday, May 15, 2015 / Notices                                            27963

                                                  Agreement and the comments received,                    portland cement. Customers add slag                   design, and construct while the
                                                  and decide whether it should withdraw                   cement to portland cement to enhance                  expansion of an existing facility would
                                                  from the Consent Agreement, modify it,                  the physical properties of a concrete                 likely cost hundreds of millions of
                                                  or make final the Decision and Order                    mixture. It is appropriate to treat slag              dollars and take four or more years to
                                                  (‘‘Order’’).                                            cement as a separate relevant product                 complete. Building competitive cement
                                                                                                          because an insufficient number of                     distribution terminals is also difficult
                                                  The Transaction
                                                                                                          purchasers would switch to other                      and time consuming. It can take more
                                                     Pursuant to a Combination Agreement                  products in response to a small but                   than two years to obtain the necessary
                                                  dated July 7, 2014, Holcim proposes to                  significant increase in the price of slag             permits and complete construction of a
                                                  acquire 100 percent of the existing                     cement to render such a price increase                competitive terminal in the relevant
                                                  shares of Lafarge in a transaction valued               unprofitable.                                         markets. New entrants into slag cement
                                                  at $24.95 billion at that time. The                        The primary purchasers of portland                 markets face the additional hurdle of
                                                  Commission’s Complaint alleges that                     and slag cement are ready-mix concrete                having to obtain a cost-effective source
                                                  the proposed acquisition, if                            firms and producers of concrete                       for the raw material. There are few
                                                  consummated, would violate Section 7                    products. These customers usually pick                domestic sources for granulated blast
                                                  of the Clayton Act, as amended, 15                      up portland and slag cement from a                    furnace slag because there are a limited
                                                  U.S.C. 18, and Section 5 of the Federal                 cement company’s plant or terminal in                 number of active blast furnaces in the
                                                  Trade Commission Act, as amended, 15                    trucks. Because portland and slag                     United States. Given the difficulties of
                                                  U.S.C. 45, by substantially lessening                   cement are heavy and relatively cheap                 entry, it is unlikely that any new entry
                                                  competition in certain regional markets                 commodities, transportation costs limit               could be accomplished in a timely
                                                  in the United States for the manufacture                the distance customers can                            manner in the relevant markets to defeat
                                                  and sale of portland cement and slag                    economically travel to pick up the                    a likely price increase caused by the
                                                  cement. The proposed Consent                            products. The precise scope of the area               proposed acquisition.
                                                  Agreement will remedy the alleged                       that can be served by a particular plant
                                                                                                          or terminal depends on a number of                    Effects of the Acquisition
                                                  violations by preserving the competition
                                                  that would otherwise be eliminated by                   factors, including the density of the                    Unless remedied, the proposed
                                                  the proposed acquisition.                               specific region and local transportation              merger would likely result in
                                                                                                          costs.                                                competitive harm in each of the relevant
                                                  The Parties                                                Due to transportation costs, cement                portland and slag cement markets. The
                                                    Holcim is a Swiss-based, vertically                   markets are local or regional in nature.              merger would eliminate substantial
                                                  integrated global building materials                    The relevant geographic markets in                    head-to-head competition between the
                                                  company. The company’s products                         which to analyze the effects of the                   parties in each of these markets and
                                                  include cement, clinker, concrete, lime,                proposed acquisition on portland                      significantly increase market
                                                  and aggregates. In the United States,                   cement competition are (1) the                        concentration. For many customers in
                                                  Holcim currently operates nine portland                 Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota area;                 these markets, the merger would
                                                  cement and three slag grinding plants,                  (2) the Duluth, Minnesota area; (3)                   combine the two closest competitors for
                                                  as well as a large network of distribution              western Wisconsin; (4) eastern Iowa; (5)              their business, leaving the merged entity
                                                  assets.                                                 the Memphis, Tennessee area; (6) the                  with the power to increase prices to
                                                    Lafarge is a vertically-integrated                    Baton Rouge, Louisiana area; (7) the                  these customers unilaterally. Further,
                                                  global building materials company                       New Orleans, Louisiana area; (8) the                  because the merger would reduce the
                                                  incorporated in France and                              Detroit, Michigan area; (9) northern                  number of significant competitors to, at
                                                  headquartered in Paris. Lafarge                         Michigan; (10) the Grand Rapids,                      most, two or three in the relevant
                                                  primarily produces and sells cement,                    Michigan area; (11) western Montana;                  markets, it would enhance the
                                                  aggregates, and ready-mix concrete. In                  and (12) the Boston, Massachusetts/                   likelihood of collusion or coordinated
                                                  the United States, Lafarge currently                    Providence, Rhode Island area. The                    action between the remaining
                                                  operates six portland cement and three                  proper geographic markets in which to                 competitors by reducing impediments to
                                                  slag cement grinding plants as well as                  analyze the effects of the proposed                   reaching common terms of coordination
                                                  numerous distribution terminals.                        transaction on slag cement are (1) the                and making it easier to monitor and
                                                                                                          Mid-Atlantic region and (2) the western               retaliate against potential deviation from
                                                  The Relevant Products and Structure of                                                                        a coordinated scheme.
                                                                                                          Great Lakes region.
                                                  the Markets                                                The relevant markets for portland
                                                     In the United States, both parties                                                                         The Consent Agreement
                                                                                                          cement and slag cement are already
                                                  manufacture and sell portland cement.                   highly concentrated. For each of the                     The proposed Consent Agreement
                                                  Portland cement is an essential                         relevant markets, the parties are either              eliminates the competitive concerns
                                                  ingredient in making concrete, a cheap                  the only suppliers in the market, two of              raised by Holcim’s proposed acquisition
                                                  and versatile building material. Because                only three suppliers, or two of only four             of Lafarge by requiring the parties to
                                                  portland cement has no close substitute                 suppliers.                                            divest assets in each relevant market.
                                                  and the cost of cement usually                                                                                Lafarge is required to divest a cement
                                                  represents a relatively small percentage                Entry                                                 plant in Buffalo, Iowa and a network of
                                                  of a project’s overall construction costs,                Entry into the relevant portland                    distribution terminals along the
                                                  few customers are likely to switch to                   cement and slag cement markets would                  Mississippi River in Louisiana,
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                                                  other products in response to a small                   not be timely, likely, or sufficient in               Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Minnesota
                                                  but significant increase in the price of                magnitude, character, and scope to deter              to Continental. Continental, in turn, will
                                                  portland cement.                                        or counteract the anticompetitive effects             sell its cement terminal located in
                                                     Both parties also manufacture and sell               of the proposed transaction. The cost to              Bettendorf, Iowa to Lafarge in order to
                                                  ground, granulated blast furnace slag                   construct a new portland cement plant                 eliminate the competitive overlap that
                                                  (‘‘slag cement’’), a specialty cement                   of sufficient size to be competitive                  would otherwise be created by its
                                                  product with unique characteristics that                would likely cost over $300 million and               acquisition of Lafarge’s Davenport
                                                  can serve as a partial substitute for                   take more than five years to permit,                  cement plant. Because Lafarge will be


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                                                  27964                            Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 94 / Friday, May 15, 2015 / Notices

                                                  able to supply the Bettendorf terminal at               order to preserve the viability and                   effects of the proposed acquisition
                                                  a comparable or lower cost than                         marketability of the Great Lakes Assets.              without eliminating any efficiencies that
                                                  Continental, the transactions                           The Trident Assets and Great Lakes                    might arise from the combination of the
                                                  contemplated in the Consent Agreement                   Assets are also part of a larger group of             two companies, is in the public
                                                  will maintain the competitive status quo                Holcim assets located in Canada that the              interest.1
                                                  in the eastern Iowa market. Holcim is                   Respondents have agreed to divest in                     Holcim is a Switzerland-based,
                                                  required to divest distribution terminals               order to resolve competitive concerns                 vertically integrated global building
                                                  in Illinois and Michigan to Buzzi.                      raised by the Canadian Competition                    materials company, with products that
                                                  Holcim is further required to divest a                  Bureau (‘‘CCB’’). Commission staff                    include cement, clinker, concrete, lime,
                                                  terminal in Massachusetts and a slag                    worked cooperatively with staff from                  and aggregates. Lafarge is a France-
                                                  plant in New Jersey to Essroc and a slag                the CCB to ensure that our respective                 based, vertically integrated global
                                                  plant in Illinois to Eagle. Each of the                 proposed remedies would be consistent                 building materials company that
                                                  identified buyers possesses the                         and effective.                                        primarily produces and sells cement,
                                                  experience and capability to become                       The proposed Order provides that                    aggregates, and ready-mix concrete.
                                                  significant competitors in the relevant                 Holcim must find a buyer (or buyers) for                 The merged company will be the
                                                  markets. The parties must accomplish                    the Trident Assets and the Great Lakes                world’s largest cement manufacturer,
                                                  the divestitures to these buyers within                 Assets, at no minimum price, that is                  with combined 2014 revenues of
                                                  ten days after the proposed acquisition                 acceptable to the Commission, no later                approximately $35 billion and
                                                  is accomplished.                                        than 120 days from the date on which                  operations in more than 90 countries.
                                                     The Commission’s goal in evaluating                  the parties consummate the proposed                   Our competitive concerns pertain to
                                                  possible purchasers of divested assets is               acquisition. The Consent Agreement                    specific geographic markets in the
                                                  to maintain the competitive                             also contains an Order to Hold Separate               United States where Holcim and Lafarge
                                                  environment that existed prior to the                   and Maintain Assets, which will serve                 each make significant cement sales. The
                                                  proposed acquisition. If the Commission                 to ensure that these assets are held                  proposed merger would likely harm
                                                  determines that any of the identified                   separate and operated independently                   competition for the distribution and sale
                                                  buyers is not an acceptable acquirer, the               from the merged company and protect                   of portland cement, an essential
                                                  proposed Order requires the parties to                  the viability, marketability, and                     ingredient in making concrete, in 12
                                                  divest the assets to a Commission-                      competitiveness of the divestiture asset              local or regional markets. It would also
                                                  approved acquirer within 90 days of the                 packages until the assets are divested to             threaten to lessen competition for the
                                                  Commission notifying the parties that                   a buyer or buyers approved by the                     distribution and sale of slag cement, a
                                                  the proposed acquirer is not acceptable.                Commission.                                           specialty cement product used in
                                                  If the Commission determines that the                     To ensure compliance with the                       certain applications, in two other
                                                  manner in which any divestiture was                     proposed Order, the Commission has                    regional markets.
                                                  accomplished is not acceptable, the                     agreed to appoint an Interim Monitor to                  The merger would create a merger to
                                                  Commission may direct the parties, or                   ensure that Holcim and Lafarge comply                 monopoly in some of the challenged
                                                  appoint a divestiture trustee, to effect                with all of their obligations pursuant to             relevant markets, while in others at
                                                  such modifications as may be necessary                  the Consent Agreement and to keep the                 most three competitors would remain
                                                  to satisfy the requirements of the Order.               Commission informed about the status                  post-merger. Absent a remedy, the
                                                     Finally, the proposed Consent                                                                              Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (‘‘HHI’’) in
                                                                                                          of the transfer of the rights and assets to
                                                  Agreement requires Holcim to divest to                                                                        each of these markets would exceed
                                                                                                          appropriate purchasers.
                                                  a buyer or buyers approved by the                                                                             3,400, making every market highly
                                                                                                            The purpose of this analysis is to
                                                  Commission (1) a cement plant in                                                                              concentrated according to the 2010
                                                                                                          facilitate public comment on the
                                                  Trident, Montana and two distribution                                                                         Horizontal Merger Guidelines.2 The
                                                                                                          Consent Agreement, and it is not
                                                  terminals in Alberta, Canada (the                                                                             increase in HHI in each market would
                                                                                                          intended to constitute an official
                                                  ‘‘Trident Assets’’), and (2) a cement                                                                         exceed 900, well above the 200-point
                                                                                                          interpretation of the proposed Decision
                                                  plant in Mississauga, Ontario and                                                                             change necessary to trigger the
                                                                                                          and Order or to modify its terms in any
                                                  cement terminals in Minnesota,                                                                                Guidelines’ presumption that the merger
                                                                                                          way.
                                                  Michigan, Ohio, and New York (the                                                                             is ‘‘likely to enhance market power.’’ 3
                                                  ‘‘Great Lakes Assets’’). The divestiture                  By direction of the Commission,                     There is no evidence rebutting this
                                                  of the Trident plant would eliminate the                Commissioner Wright dissenting.
                                                                                                                                                                presumption. If anything, the evidence
                                                  proposed merger’s potential                             Donald S. Clark,                                      suggests that the estimates of market
                                                  anticompetitive impact on purchasers of                 Secretary.                                            concentration understate our concerns.
                                                  portland cement located in western                                                                               In each of the relevant markets at
                                                                                                          Statement of the Federal Trade
                                                  Montana. The two Alberta terminals                                                                            issue, there is evidence that unilateral
                                                                                                          Commission in the Matter of Holcim
                                                  distribute cement produced at the                                                                             anticompetitive effects are likely.
                                                                                                          Ltd. and Lafarge S.A.
                                                  Trident plant and are included in the                                                                         Substantial evidence demonstrates that,
                                                  Consent Agreement in order to preserve                     The Federal Trade Commission has                   for many customers in the relevant
                                                  the viability and marketability of the                  voted to accept a settlement to resolve               areas, the merging firms are their
                                                  Trident Assets. Holcim’s Mississauga                    the likely anticompetitive effects of                 preferred suppliers and that customers
                                                  plant supplies portland cement into the                 Holcim Ltd.’s (‘‘Holcim’’) proposed $25               have benefitted from substantial head-
                                                  United States both directly and via                     billion acquisition of Lafarge S.A.                   to-head competition between the parties
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                                                  terminals located in Duluth; Detroit;                   (‘‘Lafarge’’). We have reason to believe
                                                  Dundee, Michigan; Cleveland, Ohio;                      that, absent a remedy, the proposed                      1 Chairwoman Ramirez, Commissioner Brill,

                                                  and Buffalo, New York. The divestiture                  acquisition is likely to substantially                Commissioner Ohlhausen, and Commissioner
                                                  of the Great Lakes Assets would remedy                  reduce competition in the manufacture                 McSweeny join in this statement.
                                                                                                                                                                   2 See 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines § 5.3.
                                                  the proposed merger’s anticompetitive                   and sale of portland cement and slag
                                                                                                                                                                The threshold at which a market is considered
                                                  effects in the Duluth and Detroit areas.                cement. As we explain below, we                       ‘‘highly concentrated’’ under the Guidelines is
                                                  The Cleveland and Buffalo terminals are                 believe the proposed remedy, tailored to              2,500.
                                                  included in the Consent Agreement in                    counteract the likely anticompetitive                    3 Id.




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                                                                                   Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 94 / Friday, May 15, 2015 / Notices                                                         27965

                                                  in negotiating prices for portland and                  number of significant competitors to                     in a merger that reduces the number of
                                                  slag cement. Customers in every single                  only two or three, the proposed merger                   firms in a relevant market to two or
                                                  one of the affected markets expressed                   would make it easier for the remaining                   three differently from a merger that only
                                                  concern that their inability to play the                firms to coordinate, monitor compliance                  reduces the number of firms to six or
                                                  merging parties off each other would                    with, and retaliate against potential                    seven. Where, as here, a proposed
                                                  diminish their ability to obtain better                 deviation from, a coordinated scheme.                    merger significantly increases
                                                  prices or other favorable terms. As the                 We therefore have reason to believe that                 concentration in an already highly
                                                  Guidelines note, a combination of two                   the merger may enhance the                               concentrated market, a presumption of
                                                  competing sellers ‘‘can significantly                   vulnerability to coordinated effects that                competitive harm is justified under both
                                                  enhance the ability and incentive of the                already exists in the relevant markets.7                 the Guidelines and well-established
                                                  merged entity to obtain a result more                      In his dissent, Commissioner Wright                   case law.10
                                                  favorable to it, and less favorable to the              takes issue with our decision to seek a                     Moreover, despite Commissioner
                                                  buyer, than the merging firms would                     remedy in six markets, going to great                    Wright’s assertion to the contrary, our
                                                  have offered separately absent the                      lengths to argue that we are improperly                  investigation went beyond
                                                  merger.’’ 4 In addition, the evidence                   relying solely on the increase in market                 consideration of market concentration
                                                  demonstrates that not all of the                        concentration to justify our action, that                and application of the Guidelines
                                                  remaining suppliers in the relevant                     we are creating new presumptions of                      presumption of competitive harm and,
                                                  markets provide customers with                          harm, that we lack a ‘‘credible basis’’ on               as noted above, produced additional
                                                  practical alternatives to the merging                   which to conclude that the merger may                    evidence supporting our belief that the
                                                  parties for a variety of reasons,                       enhance the vulnerability of the relevant                effect of the proposed acquisition would
                                                  including capacity constraints, lack of                 markets to coordination, and that our                    be to substantially lessen competition
                                                  distribution assets to supply new                       action is otherwise inconsistent with the                and harm cement customers in the
                                                  customers, and downstream vertical                      Guidelines. We respectfully disagree                     relevant markets. On coordinated
                                                  integration.5                                           with Commissioner Wright’s various                       effects, we found numerous
                                                     The evidence also suggests that the                  characterizations of the Commission’s                    characteristics of the market making it
                                                  proposed acquisition would increase the                 statement in this matter. The Guidelines                 vulnerable to collusion. It is particularly
                                                  ability and incentives of the combined                  make clear that a substantial increase in                troubling that existing cement suppliers
                                                  firm and other market participants to                   concentration caused by a merger                         have expressly colluded in other
                                                  engage in coordinated behavior that                     continues to be a significant factor in                  geographic markets with similar
                                                  would result in harm to consumers. The                  merger analysis because highly                           characteristics. We also examined
                                                  relevant markets have characteristics                   concentrated markets with only two or                    whether other market factors, such as
                                                  that make them susceptible to                           three large firms are more likely to lead                the possibility of entry or expansion,
                                                  coordination. They are highly                           to anticompetitive outcomes.8 Economic                   might alleviate our competitive
                                                  concentrated; the products are                          theory and empirical research bear this                  concerns. The evidence demonstrates
                                                  homogeneous; overall market elasticity                  out.9 As a result, we view the evidence                  the presence of high barriers to entry for
                                                  is low; customer switching costs are                                                                             both portland cement and slag cement,
                                                  low; and sales are relatively small,                    article/2013/08/31/belgium-cement-                       including significant capital costs and
                                                  frequent, and usually not made                          idUSL6N0GW05U20130831 (reporting EUR 14.7                regulatory requirements. Entry sufficient
                                                                                                          million in fines levied by the Belgian Competition       to deter or counteract the likely harm
                                                  pursuant to long-term contracts. There                  Council on Holcim and others for collusion); Press
                                                  is also a high degree of transparency in                Release, Polish Office of Competition and                from the proposed transaction would
                                                  these markets. Competitors are aware of                 Consumer Protection, UOKiK Breaks Cement Cartel,         thus be neither timely nor likely.
                                                                                                          Dec. 12, 2013, available at https://uokik.gov.pl/
                                                  each other’s production capacities,                     news.php?news_id=10754&news_page=1                       of firm interaction—are consistent with the view
                                                  costs, sales volumes, prices, and                       (announcing decision of Poland’s Court of                that competition with fewer significant firms on
                                                  customers. Our concern about the                        Competition and Consumer Protection to impose            average is associated with higher prices. . . .
                                                  potential for coordinated effects in these              fines of PLN 339 million (∼$93 million) on cement        Accordingly, a horizontal merger reducing the
                                                                                                          suppliers for collusion involving Lafarge and            number of rivals from four to three, or three to two,
                                                  markets is heightened by evidence that                  others); see generally Merger Guidelines § 7.2.          would be more likely to raise competitive concerns
                                                  cement suppliers, including the same                       7 See Merger Guidelines § 7.1.
                                                                                                                                                                   than one reducing the number from ten to nine,
                                                  global firms that compete in these                         8 Id. § 2.1.3 (‘‘Mergers that cause a significant     ceteris paribus.’’); Steffen Huck, et al., Two Are Few
                                                  markets, have expressly colluded in                     increase in concentration and result in highly           and Four Are Many: Number Effects from
                                                  other geographic markets with similar                   concentrated markets are presumed to be likely to        Experimental Oligopolies, 53 J. Econ. Behavior &
                                                                                                          enhance market power, but this presumption can be        Org. 435, 443 (2004) (testing the frequency of
                                                  characteristics.6 By reducing the                       rebutted by persuasive evidence showing that the         collusive outcomes in Cournot oligopolies and
                                                                                                          merger is unlikely to enhance market power.’’). See      finding ‘‘clear evidence that there is a qualitative
                                                    4 Id. § 6.2.                                          also Carl Shapiro, The 2010 Horizontal Merger            difference between two and four or more firms’’);
                                                    5 For  instance, ready-mix concrete producers are     Guidelines: From Hedgehog to Fox in Forty Years,         Timothy F. Bresnahan & Peter C. Reiss, Entry and
                                                  often unwilling to purchase cement from their           77 Antitrust L.J. 701, 708 (2010) (explaining that the   Competition in Concentrated Markets, 99 J. Pol.
                                                  rivals.                                                 Guidelines’ flexible approach ‘‘certainly does not       Econ. 977, 1006 (1991) (finding, in a study of tire
                                                    6 See, e.g., Press Release, European Commission,      mean that they reject the use of market                  prices, that ‘‘[m]arkets with three or more dealers
                                                  The Court of Justice Upholds in Substance the           concentration to predict competitive effects, as can     have lower prices than monopolists or duopolists,’’
                                                  Judgment Delivered by the Court of First Instance       be seen in Sections 2.1.3 and 5,’’ that the Guidelines   and noting that, ‘‘while prices level off between
                                                  in 2000 Concerning the Cement Cartel, Jan. 7, 2004,     ‘‘recognize that levels and changes in market            three and five dealers, they are higher than
                                                  available at http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_      concentration are more probative in some cases           unconcentrated market prices’’).
                                                  CJE–04–2_en.htm (announcing fines of EUR 100            than others,’’ and that ‘‘the Agencies place                10 See Merger Guidelines § 2.1.3; Chicago Bridge

                                                  million on cement suppliers for collusion); Press       considerable weight on HHI measures in cases             & Iron Co. v. FTC, 534 F.3d 410, 423 (5th Cir. 2008)
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                                                  Release, German Federal Cartel Office, Highest fine     involving coordinated effects’’) (emphasis in            (‘‘Typically, the Government establishes a prima
                                                  in Bundeskartellamt History is Final, April 10,         original).                                               facie case by showing that the transaction in
                                                  2013, available at http://www.bundeskartellamt.de/         9 See, e.g., Steven C. Salop, The Evolution and       question will significantly increase market
                                                  SharedDocs/Meldung/EN/Pressemitteilungen/2013/          Vitality of Merger Presumptions: A Decision-             concentration, thereby creating a presumption that
                                                  10_04_2013_BGH-Zement.html (announcing fines            Theoretic Approach 11 (Georgetown Law Faculty            the transaction is likely to substantially lessen
                                                  of EUR 380 million on Lafarge, Holcim, and others       Publications and Other Works, Working Paper No.          competition.’’); FTC v. H.J. Heinz Co., 246 F.3d 708,
                                                  for collusion); Philip Blenkinsop, Belgian              1304, 2014), available at http://scholarship.law.        716 (D.C. Cir. 2001) (merger to duopoly creates a
                                                  Competition Regulator Fines Cement Groups, Aug.         georgetown.edu/facpub/1304 (‘‘[V]arious theories of      rebuttable presumption of anticompetitive harm
                                                  31, 2013, available at http://www.reuters.com/          oligopoly conduct—both static and dynamic models         through direct or tacit coordination).



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                                                  27966                            Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 94 / Friday, May 15, 2015 / Notices

                                                     In the face of our competitive                       untethered to these two theories of harm               focusing upon isolated rural markets.5 It
                                                  concerns, based on what we had learned                  articulated in the 2010 Horizontal                     strains credulity to argue that Bresnahan
                                                  about the nature and conditions of the                  Merger Guidelines (‘‘Merger                            and Reiss’s important analysis of the
                                                  relevant markets, the parties proposed                  Guidelines’’), the Commission asserts                  impact of entry in markets involving
                                                  divestitures to remedy our concerns in                  that mergers, such as the proposed                     doctors, dentists, druggists, plumbers,
                                                  each of those markets. The parties did                  transaction, that reduce the number of                 and tire dealers in local and isolated
                                                  not comply with our Second Requests.                    competitors to three or fewer are likely               areas, where they find the competitive
                                                  While continued investigation may have                  to harm competition. The Commission’s                  benefits of a second competitor are
                                                  produced more evidentiary support for                   structural presumption is economically                 especially important, apply with
                                                  our complaint, including those markets                  unfounded and inappropriate in the vast                generality sufficient to support a widely
                                                  for which Commissioner Wright                           majority of Relevant Markets.                          applicable presumption of harm based
                                                  dissents, we do not think such a course                 Furthermore, there is insufficient                     upon the number of firms. Indeed, the
                                                  would have been justified. We have                      evidence to support a coordinated                      authors warn against precisely this
                                                  ample evidence to support our                           effects theory in any Relevant Market                  interpretation of their work.6
                                                  allegations of anticompetitive harm and                 and insufficient evidence to support a                    The second article is a laboratory
                                                  had no reason to burden the parties with                unilateral effects theory in several of the            experiment and does not involve the
                                                  the expense and delay of further inquiry                Relevant Markets.                                      behavior of actual firms and certainly
                                                  for the sole purpose of obtaining                                                                              cannot provide sufficient economic
                                                  additional, cumulative evidence. Nor                       In those markets in which I conclude                evidence to support a presumption that
                                                  would further inquiry have been a good                  the record evidence supports neither a                 four-to-three and three-to-two mergers
                                                  use of Commission resources.                            coordinated nor a unilateral effects                   in real-world markets will result in
                                                     Merger analysis is necessarily                       theory, the Commission relies upon                     anticompetitive coordination.7 Once
                                                  predictive. The evidence in this case                   little more than the change in market                  again, the authors warn against such an
                                                  provides us with sufficient reason to                   structure to support each of its                       interpretation.8
                                                  believe that the proposed acquisition is                allegations. Without particularized                       Finally, the Commission cites a draft
                                                  likely to substantially reduce                          evidence substantiating a unilateral                   article, authored by Steve Salop, in
                                                  competition, and there is no evidence of                effects or coordinated effects theory of               support of its view that economic
                                                  countervailing efficiencies that weigh                  harm arising from the proposed                         evidence supports a presumption that
                                                  against the remedy. We believe that the                 transaction, a structural theory alone                 four-to-three and three-to-two mergers
                                                  public interest is best served by                       cannot provide a sufficient basis to                   are competitively suspect.9 The article
                                                  remedying the competitive concerns as                   establish reason to believe a transaction              does not purport to study or provide
                                                  set forth in our proposed consent order.                violates the Clayton Act. It follows, in               new economic evidence on the
                                                                                                          my view, that the Commission should                    relationship between market structure
                                                  Statement of Commissioner Joshua D.                     refrain from imposing a remedy in the                  and competition. Thus, it cannot
                                                  Wright, Dissenting in Part and                          markets for which the evidence is
                                                  Concurring in Part In the Matter of                     insufficient to support either a                          5 Timothy F. Bresnahan & Peter C. Reiss, Entry
                                                  Holcim Ltd. and Lafarge S.A.                            coordinated effects theory or a unilateral             and Competition in Concentrated Markets, 99 J. Pol.
                                                                                                                                                                 Econ. 977 (1991). While Bresnahan and Reiss is an
                                                     The Commission has voted to issue a                  effects theory.                                        important early contribution to the static entry
                                                  Complaint and a Decision & Order                                                                               literature, it cannot possibly bear the burden the
                                                  against Holcim Ltd. (‘‘Holcim’’) and                    I. The Commission’s Structural Theory                  Commission wishes to place upon it. Abstracting
                                                  Lafarge S.A. (‘‘Lafarge’’) to remedy the                and Presumption Are Unsupported by                     from the complexities of market definition was
                                                  allegedly anticompetitive effects of the                Economic Evidence                                      necessary for the researchers to isolate entry
                                                                                                                                                                 decisions. This is possible when studying the
                                                  proposed merger of the two companies.                      The Commission argues mergers that                  effects of entry by a second dentist in a town with
                                                  I dissent in part from and concur in part               reduce the number of competitors in a
                                                                                                                                                                 a population of less than 1,000, but not in most real-
                                                  with the Commission’s decision because                                                                         world antitrust applications. The authors of the
                                                                                                          relevant market to three or two are                    study make this point themselves, noting that
                                                  the evidence is insufficient to provide a
                                                                                                          unique in the sense that they warrant a                ‘‘whether this pattern appears in other industries
                                                  reason to believe the proposed                                                                                 remains an open question.’’ Id. at 1007.
                                                                                                          presumption of competitive harm and
                                                  transaction is likely to substantially                                                                            6 In earlier research using similar empirical
                                                                                                          illegality,3 but it cannot defend its
                                                  lessen competition, in violation of                                                                            techniques and data—namely, small rural
                                                                                                          structural presumption upon the basis                  markets—Bresnahan and Reiss plainly reject the
                                                  Section 7 of the Clayton Act, in several
                                                                                                          of economic evidence or accumulated                    notion that the findings should inform views of
                                                  of the portland cement markets                                                                                 market structure and competition generally: ‘‘We do
                                                                                                          empirical knowledge.
                                                  identified in the Complaint.1                                                                                  not believe that these markets ‘stand in’ for highly
                                                     The Commission articulates                              The Commission cites in support of                  concentrated industries in the sectors of the
                                                  coordinated effects and unilateral effects              its structural theory and presumption                  economy where competition is national or global.’’
                                                                                                                                                                 Timothy F. Bresnahan & Peter C. Reiss, Do Entry
                                                  theories of harm arising from the                       three academic articles written by                     Conditions Vary Across Markets, 3 Brookings
                                                  proposed transaction in all of the                      economists.4 Only two offer economic                   Papers Econ. Activity 833, 868 (1987).
                                                  fourteen relevant geographic markets                    evidence, and the proffered                               7 Steffen Huck et al., Two Are Few and Four Are

                                                  defined in the Complaint (the ‘‘Relevant                substantiation fails to support the claim.             Many: Number Effects from Experimental
                                                                                                                                                                 Oligopolies, 53 J. Econ. Behavior & Org. 435 (2004).
                                                  Markets’’).2 Additionally, and                          The first is an important early entrant                   8 Id. at 436 (‘‘The number of firms is not the only
                                                                                                          into the static entry literature examining             factor affecting competition in experimental
                                                    1 As I explain below, I concur with the               the relationship between market size                   markets. This implies that there exists no unique
                                                  Commission as to the Twin Cities, Duluth, western       and the number of entrants in a market,                number of firms that determines a definite
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                                                  Wisconsin, New Orleans, western Montana, Boston/                                                               borderline between non-cooperative and collusive
                                                  Providence, the Mid-Atlantic region, and the                                                                   markets irrespective of all institutional and
                                                  western Great Lakes region; I dissent with the          customers in these markets, the merger would . . .     structural details of the experimental markets.’’).
                                                  Commission as to eastern Iowa, Memphis, Baton           leav[e] the merged entity with the power to increase      9 Steven C. Salop, The Evolution and Vitality of
                                                  Rouge, Detroit, northern Michigan, and Grand            prices . . . unilaterally. Further, . . . it would     Merger Presumptions: A Decision-Theoretic
                                                  Rapids.                                                 enhance the likelihood of collusion or coordinated     Approach (Georgetown Law Faculty Publications
                                                    2 See Analysis of Agreement Containing Consent        action between the remaining competitors.’’).          and Other Works, Working Paper No. 1304, 2014),
                                                                                                            3 Id. at 3.
                                                  Orders to Aid Public Comment 3, Holcim Ltd., FTC                                                               available at http://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/
                                                  File No. 141–0129 (May 4, 2015) (‘‘For many               4 Id. at 3 n.9.                                      facpub/1304/.



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                                                                                   Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 94 / Friday, May 15, 2015 / Notices                                                     27967

                                                  support the Commission’s                                Section 2.1.3 of the Merger Guidelines                 observations about the relationship
                                                  proposition.10                                          does, as the Commission observes, state                between market structure and
                                                    There is simply no empirical                          that ‘‘mergers that cause a significant                competition are not relevant to the
                                                  economic evidence sufficient to warrant                 increase in concentration and result in                Commission’s adoption of a structural
                                                  a presumption that anticompetitive                      highly concentrated markets are                        presumption in this case.
                                                  coordination is likely to result from                   presumed to be likely to enhance market
                                                  four-to-three or three-to-two mergers.                                                                            I therefore find any reliance upon
                                                                                                          power.’’ 13 The Merger Guidelines insure
                                                  Indeed, such a presumption would be                                                                            structural changes alone to be
                                                                                                          against reverting to naked structural
                                                  inconsistent with modern economic                       analysis by making clear that the role of              economically untenable and insufficient
                                                  theory and the analysis endorsed by the                 market shares and market concentration                 to give me reason to believe the
                                                  Merger Guidelines, which deemphasize                    is ‘‘not an end in itself,’’ but rather ‘‘one          proposed transaction will violate
                                                  inferences of competitive harm arising                  useful indicator of likely                             Section 7 in the vast majority of
                                                  from market structure in favor of greater               anticompetitive effects,’’ and that                    Relevant Markets.
                                                  reliance upon particularized evidence of                market concentration is not to be used                 II. Coordinated Effects Are Unlikely in
                                                  changes in post-merger incentives to                    to ‘‘provide a rigid screen to separate                Any Relevant Market
                                                  compete.11                                              competitively benign mergers from
                                                    To the contrary, this approach is                     anticompetitive ones,’’ but rather to                     The Merger Guidelines describe the
                                                  inconsistent with Agency practice and                   provide one way to distinguish                         conditions under which the antitrust
                                                  the letter and spirit of the more                       competitively benign mergers from                      agencies will challenge a proposed
                                                  economically sophisticated approach                     those that warrant closer scrutiny.14 To               merger on the basis that it is likely to
                                                  adopted in the Merger Guidelines.12                     the extent these passages evince an                    result in anticompetitive coordination.
                                                                                                          ambiguity in the Merger Guidelines with                Specifically, the Merger Guidelines
                                                     10 Nevertheless, to the extent Salop argues in
                                                                                                          respect to the minimum evidentiary                     articulate three necessary conditions
                                                  favor of legal presumptions in merger analysis, he
                                                  clarifies that they ‘‘obviously should be based on
                                                                                                          burden that must be satisfied to support               that must each be satisfied to support a
                                                  valid economic analysis, that is, proper economic       a merger challenge, the Commission                     coordinated effects theory: (1) A
                                                  presumptions,’’ which should be updated ‘‘based         should embrace the interpretation more
                                                  on new or additional economic factors besides                                                                  significant increase in concentration,
                                                                                                          consistent with a modern economic
                                                  market shares and concentration.’’ Id. at 37, 48. I                                                            leading to a moderately or highly
                                                                                                          approach rather than with the obsolete
                                                  agree. Additionally, Salop explains that
                                                                                                          and discredited structural analysis of a               concentrated market, (2) a market
                                                  ‘‘[c]ontemporary economic learning suggests that
                                                  concentration be considered when undertaking            prior era.                                             vulnerable to coordinated conduct, and
                                                  competitive effects analysis—in conjunction with           Rather than relying upon economic                   (3) a credible basis for concluding the
                                                  other factors suggested by the competitive effects      evidence to defend the Commission’s                    transaction will enhance that
                                                  theory—but not treated as the sole determinant of                                                              vulnerability.17 Thus, the Merger
                                                  post-merger pricing.’’ Id. at 13–14. Notably, Salop     structural presumption, the Commission
                                                  does not endorse a distinction between four-to-three    highlights case law supporting a                       Guidelines establish clearly that a
                                                  mergers or three-to-two mergers and mergers in less     presumption of illegality for mergers to               highly concentrated market that is
                                                  concentrated markets that justifies a presumption       duopoly or that substantially increase                 already vulnerable to coordinated
                                                  that the former are anticompetitive; rather, he
                                                  merely observes that empirical evidence and             concentration.15 As a preliminary                      conduct is necessary but not sufficient
                                                  economic theory do not warrant ‘‘ignoring market        matter, case law that endorses a wholly                to support a coordinated effects theory.
                                                  shares and concentration in merger analysis.’’ Id. at   structural approach to merger analysis—                Critically, the Commission must also
                                                  12 (emphasis in original).                              an approach clearly rejected by the
                                                     11 See Carl Shapiro, The 2010 Horizontal Merger
                                                                                                                                                                 have evidence sufficient to provide a
                                                  Guidelines: From Hedgehog to Fox in Forty Years,
                                                                                                          Merger Guidelines—does not constitute                  credible basis to conclude the
                                                  77 Antitrust L.J. 701, 707–08 (2010) (acknowledging     relevant economic evidence. Judicial                   transaction will enhance the market’s
                                                  the role of market concentration in the analysis        opinions adopting this approach are                    vulnerability to coordinated conduct.
                                                  endorsed in the Merger Guidelines and observing         orthogonal to the proposition in need of
                                                  that they place less weight upon market
                                                                                                                                                                 Such evidence must evince a change in
                                                  concentration and market shares, instead
                                                                                                          economic substantiation: that mergers                  the post-merger competitive market
                                                  emphasizing the importance of direct evidence of        resulting in three- or two-firm markets                dynamics and, in particular, post-
                                                  changes in post-merger incentives to compete and        are likely to result in coordination.                  merger incentives to engage in
                                                  competitive effects). To the extent the Commission      Indeed, one can find a variety of
                                                  relies upon Shapiro’s caveat that ‘‘changes in                                                                 coordinated pricing. The Merger
                                                  market concentration are more probative in some
                                                                                                          economically dubious propositions                      Guidelines provide the elimination of a
                                                  cases than others,’’ Statement of the Federal Trade     adopted in antitrust case law blessed by               maverick firm as an illustrative example
                                                  Commission 3 n.8, Holcim Ltd., FTC File No. 141–        no less a legal authority than the                     of the type of evidence that would
                                                  0129 (May 8, 2015), they fail to explain why, nor       Supreme Court.16 But courts’
                                                  have I been provided any evidence attempting to                                                                satisfy the third condition and warrant
                                                  establish that, markets for portland or slag concrete
                                                                                                          agencies to ‘‘remove the presumption of illegality
                                                                                                                                                                 a presumption of adverse coordinated
                                                  fit within the subset of cases for which it has been                                                           effects.18 Importantly, the Merger
                                                  established that there is a reliable a relationship     keyed to the level and increase in the HHI’’ because
                                                  between market structure and competition. I do not      ‘‘[t]he presumption does not reflect how the           Guidelines explain evidence that a
                                                  quarrel with the notion that such markets exist. We     Agencies conduct investigations [and] is not           merger will eliminate a maverick is
                                                  identify them over time using economic analysis,        theoretically warranted’’).
                                                                                                             13 U.S. Dep’t of Justice & Fed. Trade Comm’n,       given weight precisely because it
                                                  empirical evidence, and accumulated learning. For
                                                  example, substantial research has identified            Horizontal Merger Guidelines § 7.1 (2010)
                                                  empirical regularities in the relationship between      [hereinafter Merger Guidelines].                       (1963), and that mergers resulting in post-merger
                                                                                                             14 Id. §§ 4, 5.3.                                   shares of less than 10% harm competition when
                                                  structure and price in generic pharmaceutical
                                                  markets. See David Reiffen & Michael R. Ward,              15 Statement of the Federal Trade Commission,       coupled with a trend toward concentration, United
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                                                  Generic Drug Industry Dynamics, 87 Rev. Econ. &         supra note 11, at 3 (citing Chicago Bridge & Iron      States v. Von’s Grocery Co., 384 U.S. 270 (1966);
                                                  Stat. 37 (2005).                                        Co. v. FTC, 534 F.3d 410, 423 (5th Cir. 2008) and      United States v. Pabst Brewing Co., 384 U.S. 546
                                                     12 Comments of the ABA Section of Antitrust Law      FTC v. H.J. Heinz Co., 246 F.3d 708, 716 (D.C. Cir.    (1966).
                                                  on the Horizontal Merger Guidelines Revision            2001)).                                                  17 Merger Guidelines, supra note 13, § 7.1; see

                                                  Project (June 4, 2010), available at https://              16 For example, well-established case law           also Dissenting Statement of Commissioner Joshua
                                                  www.ftc.gov/sites/default/files/documents/public_       endorses the economic proposition that mergers         D. Wright 3, Fidelity National Financial, Inc., FTC
                                                  comments/horizontal-merger-guidelines-review-           that result in post-merger shares of greater than      File No. 131–0159 (Dec. 23, 2013) [hereinafter
                                                  project-proposed-new-horizontal-merger-guidelines-      30% are likely to harm competition, United States      Wright, Fidelity Dissent].
                                                  548050-00026/548050-00026.pdf (urging the               v. Philadelphia Nat’l Bank, 374 U.S. 321, 364–65         18 Merger Guidelines, supra note 13, § 7.1.




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                                                  27968                            Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 94 / Friday, May 15, 2015 / Notices

                                                  changes post-merger incentives to                       a crucial, additional type of information               leading treatment of the economics of
                                                  coordinate.19                                           is required to illuminate how the merger                coordinated effects, similarly explains
                                                     The first and second elements of the                 changes the merged firm’s incentives to                 that ‘‘[i]t is now well understood that it
                                                  Merger Guidelines’ coordinated effects                  coordinate. The Commission’s                            is not sufficient when gauging the
                                                  analysis are not at issue in this case. The             application completely overlooks the                    likelihood of coordinated effects from a
                                                  Commission’s investigation revealed                     economic relevance of the third                         merger to simply observe that because
                                                  evidence supporting a conclusion that                   element.                                                the merger reduces the number of firms,
                                                  the Relevant Markets are already highly                    The second plausible interpretation of               it automatically lessens the coordination
                                                  concentrated and the proposed                           the Commission’s analysis is that the                   problem facing the firms and enhances
                                                  transaction will increase                               reduction in the number of competitors                  their incentives to engage in tacit
                                                  concentration.20 Furthermore, the                       in a market is itself sufficient evidence               collusion; far from it.’’27 Without
                                                  evidence supports a conclusion that the                 to provide a credible basis that a merger               particularized evidence that the
                                                  markets are vulnerable to coordinated                   will enhance a market’s vulnerability to                proposed transaction will enhance
                                                  conduct.21 Nevertheless, the                            coordination and thus satisfy the third                 incentives to coordinate post-merger, I
                                                  investigation failed to uncover any                     element of the Merger Guidelines’                       am unable to conclude there is reason
                                                  evidence to suggest the proposed                        coordinated effects analysis. Under this                to believe it is likely to substantially
                                                  transaction will increase post-merger                   reading, the Commission relies upon the                 lessen competition in violation of
                                                  incentives to coordinate—that is, there                 fact that the proposed transaction                      Section 7.
                                                  is no record evidence to provide a                      reduces the number of competitors in
                                                  credible basis to conclude the merger                   each Relevant Market by one firm, either                III. Unilateral Effects Are Unlikely in
                                                  alters the competitive dynamic in any                   from four to three or from three to two.24              Some of the Relevant Markets
                                                  Relevant Market in a manner that                        For example, the Majority Statement                        The Commission alleges the proposed
                                                  enhances its vulnerability to                           asserts that the proposed transaction                   transaction is likely to result in
                                                  coordinated conduct.                                    might enhance the likelihood of                         unilateral price effects in the Relevant
                                                     The Commission asserts that the facts                coordination by ‘‘mak[ing] it easier for                Markets. Unilateral effects arise when
                                                  that the market is highly concentrated,                 the remaining firms to coordinate,                      the reduction in direct competition
                                                  that it is vulnerable to coordination, and              monitor compliance with, and retaliate                  between merging firms is sufficient to
                                                  that the merger reduces ‘‘the number of                 against potential deviation from, a                     create post-merger market power. The
                                                  significant competitors to only two or                  coordinated scheme.’’ 25 These are                      Merger Guidelines articulate a variety of
                                                  three’’ 22 jointly satisfy the third                    generic observations that are true of any               potential unilateral effects theories,
                                                  necessary element that ‘‘the Agencies                   merger that reduces the number of firms                 including merger to monopoly, merger
                                                  have a credible basis on which to                       in a market; they are not particularized                of firms producing very close substitutes
                                                  conclude that the merger may enhance                    to the proposed transaction or to any                   in a differentiated products market,
                                                  that vulnerability.’’23 The Commission’s                Relevant Market nor do they establish a                 merger of sellers competing in
                                                  analysis can be read in one of two ways.                credible basis to conclude that post-                   bargaining and auction markets, and
                                                  Each is tantamount to the application of                merger incentives to coordinate will                    mergers in homogeneous goods markets
                                                  a structural presumption for                            increase. The observation that a market                 making post-merger output suppression
                                                  coordinated effects claims involving                    with N firms will, after the merger, have               strategies more profitable.28 The
                                                  markets with three or two firms, each is                N–1 firms is simply insufficient without                unifying theme of the unilateral effects
                                                  problematic because it adopts an                        more to establish the required credible                 analysis contemplated by the Merger
                                                  outdated and obsolete structural                        basis. This is true even when a merger                  Guidelines is that a particularized
                                                  approach to coordinated effects, and                    reduces the number of firms from four                   showing that post-merger competitive
                                                  each is in significant tension with the                 to three or from three to two. The                      constraints are weakened or eliminated
                                                  economic approach to coordinated                        Commission offers no explanation as to                  by the merger is superior to relying
                                                  effects embodied in the Merger                          why the Merger Guidelines would go                      solely upon inferences of competitive
                                                  Guidelines.                                             through the trouble of requiring a                      effects drawn from changes in market
                                                     The first interpretation is that the                 credible basis to believe a merger will                 structure.29
                                                  satisfaction of the first and second                    change the market’s competitive                            The potential unilateral effects
                                                  elements of the Merger Guidelines                       dynamics that enhances the market’s                     theories in this case fall broadly within
                                                  analysis—and particularly the                           vulnerability to coordinated conduct, in                one of three categories. The first
                                                  demonstration that the merger                           addition to an increase in market                       category involves straightforward
                                                  significantly increases concentration in                concentration, in order to substantiate a               merger-to-monopoly markets. In these
                                                  an already concentrated market—is                       coordinated effects merger challenge if                 markets, the theory of harm is that
                                                  sufficient to simultaneously satisfy the                the latter were considered sufficient to                Holcim and Lafarge are the only two
                                                  third element that the merger enhance                   satisfy both elements.                                  meaningful suppliers for all customers
                                                  post-merger incentives to coordinate.                      As I have stated previously, ‘‘there is              in the Relevant Market. The second
                                                  This interpretation renders the third                   no basis in modern economics to
                                                  element of Section 7.1 entirely                         conclude with any modicum of                               27 Janusz A. Ordover, Coordinated Effects, in 2

                                                  superfluous. The more logical                           reliability that increased                              Issues in Competition Law and Policy 1359, 1367
                                                  explanation of the third element is that                concentration—without more—will                         (ABA Section of Antitrust Law 2008) (‘‘It is quite
                                                                                                          increase post-merger incentives to                      clear . . . that a reduction in the number of firms
                                                                                                                                                                  and concomitant increases in concentration do not
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                                                    19 Id. § 2.1.5.                                       coordinate.’’ 26 Janusz Ordover, in a                   necessarily make collusion inevitable or even more
                                                    20 See  Analysis of Agreement Containing Consent                                                              likely, stable, or complete.’’).
                                                  Orders to Aid Public Comment, supra note 2, at 2.         24 See Statement of the Federal Trade                    28 Merger Guidelines, supra note 13, § 6.
                                                    21 See Statement of the Federal Trade                 Commission, supra note 11, at 2 (taking the view           29 See Shapiro, supra note 11, Part III (explaining
                                                  Commission, supra note 11, at 2 (describing the         that a reduction of competitors to three or two firms   the Merger Guidelines’ unilateral effects analysis,
                                                  characteristics of the Relevant Markets that render     in the relevant market justify a presumption of         the types of evidence that support such analysis,
                                                  them vulnerable to coordination).                       competitive harm).                                      and the relative analytical weakness of inferences
                                                    22 Id. at 2.                                            25 Id. at 2.
                                                                                                                                                                  of competitive harm drawn from changes in market
                                                    23 Merger Guidelines, supra note 13, § 7.1.             26 Wright, Fidelity Dissent, supra note 17, at 3.     structure).



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                                                                                     Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 94 / Friday, May 15, 2015 / Notices                                                       27969

                                                  category involves markets in which                        either to physical proximity or to some                 to believe such unilateral effects are
                                                  Holcim and Lafarge face some                              other preference rendering alternatives                 likely, including evidence that other
                                                  competition, but the proposed                             an unacceptable source of portland or                   competitors are experiencing, or soon
                                                  transaction will result in a merger to                    slag cement. The Commission’s example                   will experience, capacity constraints,
                                                  monopoly for a substantial subset of                      of ready-mix concrete producers,31 a                    rendering them unable or unwilling to
                                                  customers and will allow the merged                       relevant subset of customers, is an                     compete for market share, or that other
                                                  entity to unilaterally increase market                    illustrative example here. In some                      suppliers will not constrain the merged
                                                  prices. The third category includes                       Relevant Markets, the evidence supports                 entity’s prices. Several Relevant Markets
                                                  markets where the proposed transaction                    a finding that such customers would                     fall into this third category.
                                                  will reduce the number of competitors                     continue to find their vertically                          Relevant Markets where the ‘‘reason
                                                  in the Relevant Market to three or two,                   integrated rivals to be an unacceptable                 to believe’’ standard is not satisfied
                                                  and the remaining competitors will be                     source of portland cement, even if the                  lacked record evidence necessary to
                                                  unable or unwilling to compete for                        sole remaining vertically unintegrated                  corroborate any of these three
                                                  market share—for example, because of                      portland cement producer raised its                     theories.33 Indeed, with respect to the
                                                  capacity constraints, leaving the merged                  prices after the merger. In the Relevant                Relevant Markets for which I dissent
                                                  entity with the ability to unilaterally                   Markets for which credible evidence of                  from the Commission’s decision, it is
                                                  raise prices. Each of these theories                      this type is available, I find it sufficient
                                                                                                                                                                    my view that the investigation failed to
                                                  requires particularized evidence                          to create reason to believe the merger is
                                                                                                                                                                    adduce particularized evidence to
                                                  sufficient to establish reason to believe                 likely to result in competitive harm.
                                                                                                                                                                    elevate the anticipated likelihood of
                                                  the proposed transaction violates                         Several other Relevant Markets fall into
                                                                                                                                                                    competitive effects from ‘‘possible’’ to
                                                  Section 7 of the Clayton Act. I conclude                  this category.
                                                                                                               In other Relevant Markets, the                       ‘‘likely’’ under any of these theories.
                                                  the available evidence is sufficient to do
                                                                                                            allegation that there will remain only                  Without this necessary evidence, the
                                                  so in some Relevant Markets and
                                                                                                            one acceptable supplier for a significant               only remaining factual basis upon
                                                  insufficient in others.
                                                     Unilateral price effects are ‘‘most                    subset of customers after the proposed                  which the Commission rests its decision
                                                  apparent in a merger to monopoly in a                     transaction lacks evidentiary support.                  is the fact that the merger will reduce
                                                  relevant market.’’ 30 Basic economic                      Specifically, in these markets, the                     the number of competitors from four to
                                                  theory provides a robust and reliable                     record evidence does not indicate that a                three or three to two. This is simply not
                                                  inference that a merger to monopoly or                    material number of customers view                       enough evidence to support a reason to
                                                  near monopoly is likely to result in                      Holcim and Lafarge as closest supply                    believe the proposed transaction will
                                                  anticompetitive effects. A rational firm                  alternatives or that they view other                    violate the Clayton Act in these
                                                  with little or no competitive constraints                 potential suppliers as unacceptable                     Relevant Markets.
                                                  will set prices or choose output to                       supply sources and would continue to                    IV. Conclusion
                                                  maximize its profits; it can be expected                  do so in the face of a post-merger
                                                  that a rational firm acquiring such                       unilateral price increase.32                               Prior to entering into a consent
                                                  monopoly power will adjust prices and                        The final category of potential                      agreement with the merging parties, the
                                                  output accordingly. No further                            unilateral effects theories, like the                   Commission must first find reason to
                                                  economic evidence is required to                          second category, also involves Relevant                 believe that a merger likely will
                                                  substantiate an enforcement action                        Markets where the proposed transaction                  substantially lessen competition under
                                                  based upon likely unilateral price                        would reduce the number of                              Section 7 of the Clayton Act. A
                                                  effects and to establish reason to believe                competitors from four to three or three                 presumption that such reason to believe
                                                  a merger to monopoly or near monopoly                     to two, but the post-merger market share                exists when a merger decreases in the
                                                  is likely to violate Section 7 of the                     would not be large enough to infer it                   number of competitors in a market to
                                                  Clayton Act. This analysis applies to at                  would have the power to raise market                    three or two is misguided. Additionally,
                                                  least one of the Relevant Markets.                        prices unilaterally. However, unlike the                when the Commission alleges
                                                     The analysis is necessarily more                       second category, in these Relevant                      coordinated or unilateral effects arising
                                                  nuanced for theories falling within the                   Markets, it is not customer preference                  from a proposed transaction, this
                                                  second category of theories of unilateral                 that limits the number of available                     standard requires more than a mere
                                                  price effects. These theories involve                     competitors to one. Rather, in these                    counting of pre- and post-merger firms.
                                                  Relevant Markets where the proposed                       Relevant Markets, the proposed                          In particular, reason to believe a
                                                  transaction would reduce the number of                    transaction is effectively a merger to                  proposed transaction is likely to result
                                                  competitors from four to three or three                   monopoly or near monopoly because                       in coordinated effects requires
                                                  to two, and the market share for the                      alternative suppliers would be                          evidence—absent from the record
                                                  merged entity would not be large                          unwilling or unable to compete with the                 here—that the merger will enhance a
                                                  enough to infer it would have the power                   merged entity in the face of a price                    market’s vulnerability to coordinated
                                                  to raise market prices unilaterally. In                   increase. In some Relevant Markets, the                 pricing, and not just that it takes place
                                                  these markets, particularized evidence                    investigation uncovered particularized                  in a market that is already concentrated.
                                                  is required to establish reason to believe                evidence sufficient to establish a reason               In the absence of such a particularized
                                                  the merged firm will gain unilateral                                                                              showing, the Commission’s approach to
                                                  pricing power. In many Relevant                              31 See Statement of the Federal Trade
                                                                                                                                                                    coordinated effects here reduces to a
                                                  Markets, staff was successful in                          Commission, supra note 11, at 2 n.5.
                                                                                                               32 The role of ready-mix customers in the
                                                                                                                                                                    strict structural presumption
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                                                  uncovering the required evidence. For
                                                                                                            competitive analysis is again illustrative. In some
                                                  example, in some Relevant Markets,                        Relevant Markets the available evidence indicates         33 One other potentially plausible theory is that
                                                  there was evidence of a significant                       there are some ready-mix customers that purchase        customers refuse to sole source their product, and
                                                  subset of customers for whom a sole                       from rivals and others that do not, but the totality    therefore that two or more competitors are
                                                  market participant would be the only                      of the evidence fails to establish the existence of a   necessary to prevent post-merger unilateral effects.
                                                                                                            significant set of customers that view vertically       There is insufficient record evidence to indicate
                                                  remaining acceptable supplier, due                        integrated suppliers as unacceptable or would           customers would be unwilling to switch from dual-
                                                                                                            continue to do so in the face of a post-merger          to single-sourced supply in the event of a post-
                                                    30 Merger   Guidelines, supra note 13, § 6.             unilateral price increase.                              merger price increase.



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                                                  27970                            Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 94 / Friday, May 15, 2015 / Notices

                                                  unsupported by modern economics and                     GENERAL SERVICES                                      FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
                                                  at odds with the Merger Guidelines.                     ADMINISTRATION                                        Kevin Funk, Procurement Analyst,
                                                     Similarly, substantiating a unilateral                                                                     General Services Acquisition Policy
                                                                                                          [OMB Control No. 3090–0205; Docket 2015–
                                                  effects theory requires particularized                  0001; Sequence 12]
                                                                                                                                                                Division, GSA, at telephone 215–446–
                                                  evidence—also absent from the record                                                                          4860 or via email to kevin.funk@gsa.gov.
                                                  here in some Relevant Markets—that a                    General Services Administration                       SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
                                                  merger will reduce or eliminate                         Acquisition Regulation (GSAR;
                                                                                                                                                                A. Purpose
                                                  competitive constraints, permitting the                 Information Collection; Environmental
                                                                                                          Conservation, Occupational Safety,                       The Federal Hazardous Substance Act
                                                  merged entity to increase prices.                                                                             and Hazardous Material Transportation
                                                                                                          and Drug-Free Workplace
                                                  Without such evidence, a unilateral                                                                           Act prescribe standards for packaging of
                                                  effects theory reduces to little more than              AGENCY:  Office of Acquisition Policy,                hazardous substances. To meet the
                                                  a complaint about market structure                      General Services Administration (GSA).                requirements of the Acts, the General
                                                  coupled with speculation about the                      ACTION: Notice of request for comments                Services Administration Regulation
                                                  circumstances under which unilateral                    regarding the extension of a previously               prescribes provision 552.223–72,
                                                  effects might occur in a post-merger                    existing OMB clearance.                               Hazardous Material Information, to be
                                                  world. The Merger Guidelines                                                                                  inserted in solicitations and contracts
                                                                                                          SUMMARY:    Under the provisions of the
                                                  contemplate a more rigorous analysis.                                                                         that provides for delivery of hazardous
                                                                                                          Paperwork Reduction Act, the General
                                                     This is not to suggest the ‘‘reason to               Services Administration will be                       materials on an f.o.b. origin basis.
                                                  believe’’ standard requires access to                                                                            This information collection will be
                                                                                                          submitting to the Office of Management
                                                  every piece of relevant information and                                                                       accomplished by means of the provision
                                                                                                          and Budget (OMB) a request to review
                                                                                                                                                                which requires the contractor to identify
                                                  a full and complete economic analysis                   and approve an extension of a
                                                                                                          previously approved information                       for each National Stock Number, the
                                                  of a proposed transaction, regardless of
                                                                                                          collection requirement regarding                      DOT Shipping Name, DOT Hazards
                                                  whether the parties wish to propose
                                                                                                          Environmental Conservation,                           Class, and whether the item requires a
                                                  divestitures before complying with a                                                                          DOT label. Contracting Officers and
                                                  Second Request. Rather, the standard                    Occupational Safety, and Drug-Free
                                                                                                          Workplace.                                            technical personnel use the information
                                                  requires only evidence sufficient to                                                                          to monitor and ensure contract
                                                  establish that competitive harm is                      DATES: Submit comments on or before:                  requirements based on law and
                                                  likely. Such evidence, although quite                   July 14, 2015.                                        regulation.
                                                  minimal—indeed, a handful of facts in                   ADDRESSES: Submit comments                               Properly identified and labeled items
                                                  most instances—is indeed available in                   identified by Information Collection                  of hazardous material allows for
                                                  some Relevant Markets in this matter,                   3090–02085 by any of the following                    appropriate handling of such items
                                                  and it is in those markets that I concur                methods:                                              throughout GSA’s supply chain system.
                                                  with the Commission’s decision. While                      • Regulations.gov: http://                         The information is used by GSA, stored
                                                  I appreciate the practical complications                www.regulations.gov.                                  in an NSN database and provided to
                                                  of requesting additional information                       Submit comments via the Federal                    GSA customers. Non-Collection and/or
                                                                                                          eRulemaking portal by searching the                   a less frequently conducted collection of
                                                  during the course of a merger
                                                                                                          OMB control number. Select the link                   the information resulting from provision
                                                  investigation, as well as the desire to
                                                                                                          ‘‘Submit a Comment’’ that corresponds                 552.223–72 would prevent the
                                                  conduct efficient investigations, these                 with ‘‘Information Collection 3090–
                                                  important pragmatic considerations do                                                                         Government from being properly
                                                                                                          0205, Environmental Conservation,                     notified. Government activities may be
                                                  not trump the Commission’s primary                      Occupational Safety, and Drug-Free
                                                  obligation to collect evidence sufficient                                                                     hindered from apprising their
                                                                                                          Workplace’’. Follow the instructions                  employees of; (1) All hazards to which
                                                  to establish reason to believe the merger               provided at the ‘‘Submit a Comment’’
                                                  will harm competition before issuing a                                                                        they may be exposed; (2) Relative
                                                                                                          screen. Please include your name,                     symptoms and appropriate emergency
                                                  complaint and accepting a consent.                      company name (if any), and                            treatment; and (3) Proper conditions and
                                                     For the reasons I explain above, I find              ‘‘Information Collection 3090–0205,                   precautions for safe use and exposure.
                                                  reason to believe the proposed                          Environmental Conservation,
                                                  transaction is likely to result in                      Occupational Safety, and Drug-Free                    B. Annual Reporting Burden
                                                  unilateral price effects, and thus violate              Workplace’’ on your attached document.                  Respondents: 563.
                                                                                                             • Mail: General Services                             Responses per Respondent: 3.
                                                  the Clayton Act, in the Twin Cities,
                                                                                                          Administration, Regulatory Secretariat                  Total Responses: 1689.
                                                  Duluth, western Wisconsin, New
                                                                                                          Division (MVCB), 1800 F Street NW.,                     Hours per Response: .67.
                                                  Orleans, western Montana, Boston/                       Washington, DC 20405. ATTN: Ms.                         Total Burden Hours: 1132.
                                                  Providence, the Mid-Atlantic region,                    Flowers/IC 3090–0205, Environmental
                                                  and the western Great Lakes region. I                   Conservation, Occupational Safety, and                C. Public Comments
                                                  conclude there is no reason to believe                  Drug-Free Workplace.                                    Public Comments are particularly
                                                  the proposed transaction will violate                      Instructions: Please submit comments               invited on: Whether this collection of
                                                  Section 7 in eastern Iowa, Memphis,                     only and cite Information Collection                  information is necessary and whether it
                                                  Baton Rouge, Detroit, northern                          3090–0205, Environmental                              will have practical utility; whether our
                                                  Michigan, and Grand Rapids; it follows
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                                                                                                          Conservation, Occupational Safety, and                estimate of the public burden of this
                                                  that I believe the Commission should                    Drug-Free Workplace, in all                           collection of information is accurate and
                                                  refrain from imposing a remedy in these                 correspondence related to this                        based on valid assumptions and
                                                  markets.                                                collection. All comments received will                methodology; and ways to enhance the
                                                  [FR Doc. 2015–11724 Filed 5–14–15; 8:45 am]             be posted without change to http://                   quality, utility, and clarity of the
                                                  BILLING CODE 6750–01–P
                                                                                                          www.regulations.gov, including any                    information to be collected.
                                                                                                          personal and/or business confidential                   Obtaining Copies of Proposals:
                                                                                                          information provided.                                 Requesters may obtain a copy of the


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Document Created: 2018-02-21 10:27:36
Document Modified: 2018-02-21 10:27:36
CategoryRegulatory Information
CollectionFederal Register
sudoc ClassAE 2.7:
GS 4.107:
AE 2.106:
PublisherOffice of the Federal Register, National Archives and Records Administration
SectionNotices
ActionProposed consent agreement.
DatesComments must be received on or before June 4, 2015.
ContactJames Southworth, Bureau of Competition, (202-326-2822), 600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW., Washington, DC 20580.
FR Citation80 FR 27961 

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