82_FR_15527 82 FR 15468 - Candidate Debates

82 FR 15468 - Candidate Debates

FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION

Federal Register Volume 82, Issue 59 (March 29, 2017)

Page Range15468-15474
FR Document2017-06150

On February 1, 2017, the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia ordered the Commission to reconsider its disposition of the Petition for Rulemaking filed by Level the Playing Field and to issue a new decision consistent with the Court's opinion. The Petition for Rulemaking asks the Commission to amend its regulation on candidate debates to revise the criteria governing the inclusion of candidates in presidential and vice presidential general election debates. In this supplement to the Notice of Disposition, as directed by the Court, the Commission provides further explanation of its decision to not initiate a rulemaking at this time.

Federal Register, Volume 82 Issue 59 (Wednesday, March 29, 2017)
[Federal Register Volume 82, Number 59 (Wednesday, March 29, 2017)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 15468-15474]
From the Federal Register Online  [www.thefederalregister.org]
[FR Doc No: 2017-06150]


========================================================================
Proposed Rules
                                                Federal Register
________________________________________________________________________

This section of the FEDERAL REGISTER contains notices to the public of 
the proposed issuance of rules and regulations. The purpose of these 
notices is to give interested persons an opportunity to participate in 
the rule making prior to the adoption of the final rules.

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Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 59 / Wednesday, March 29, 2017 / 
Proposed Rules

[[Page 15468]]



FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION

11 CFR Part 110

[Notice 2017-09]


Candidate Debates

AGENCY: Federal Election Commission.

ACTION: Supplemental Notice of Disposition of Petition for Rulemaking.

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SUMMARY: On February 1, 2017, the U.S. District Court for the District 
of Columbia ordered the Commission to reconsider its disposition of the 
Petition for Rulemaking filed by Level the Playing Field and to issue a 
new decision consistent with the Court's opinion. The Petition for 
Rulemaking asks the Commission to amend its regulation on candidate 
debates to revise the criteria governing the inclusion of candidates in 
presidential and vice presidential general election debates. In this 
supplement to the Notice of Disposition, as directed by the Court, the 
Commission provides further explanation of its decision to not initiate 
a rulemaking at this time.

DATES: March 29, 2017.

ADDRESSES: The petition and other documents relating to this matter are 
available on the Commission's Web site, www.fec.gov/fosers (reference 
REG 2014-06), and in the Commission's Public Records Office, 999 E 
Street NW., Washington, DC 20463.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Mr. Robert M. Knop, Assistant General 
Counsel, or Ms. Jessica Selinkoff, Attorney, 999 E Street NW., 
Washington, DC 20463, (202) 694-1650 or (800) 424-9530.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: On September 11, 2014, the Commission 
received a Petition for Rulemaking from Level the Playing Field 
(``Petitioner'') regarding the Commission's regulation at 11 CFR 
110.13(c). That regulation governs the criteria that debate staging 
organizations use for inclusion in candidate debates. The regulation, 
to prevent corporate spending on debates from constituting 
contributions to the participating candidates, requires staging 
organizations to ``use pre-established objective criteria to determine 
which candidates may participate in a debate'' and further specifies 
that, for general election debates, staging organizations ``shall not 
use nomination by a particular political party as the sole objective 
criterion to determine whether to include a candidate in a debate.'' 11 
CFR 110.13(c). The petition asks the Commission to amend 11 CFR 
110.13(c) in two respects: (1) To preclude sponsors of general election 
presidential and vice presidential debates from requiring that a 
candidate meet a polling threshold in order to be included in the 
debate; and (2) to require sponsors of general election presidential 
and vice presidential debates to have a set of objective, unbiased 
criteria for debate participation that do not require candidates to 
satisfy a polling threshold. The petition included, in addition to 
legal arguments, reports and other evidence in support of its position.

Procedural History

    The Commission published a Notice of Availability seeking comment 
on the petition on November 14, 2014. Candidate Debates, 79 FR 68137. 
The Commission received 1264 comments in response to that notice, 
including one from the Petitioner that included updated and additional 
factual submissions. On November 20, 2015, the Commission published in 
the Federal Register a Notice of Disposition in which it explained why 
it would not initiate a rulemaking. Candidate Debates, 80 FR 72616.
    The Petitioner and others sued on the basis that the Commission's 
failure to initiate a rulemaking was arbitrary and capricious in 
violation of the Administrative Procedure Act. See Level the Playing 
Field v. FEC, No. 15-cv-1397, 2017 WL 437400 at *1 (D.D.C. Feb. 1, 
2017) (citing 5 U.S.C. 706). On February 1, 2017, the U.S. District 
Court for the District of Columbia concluded that the Commission acted 
arbitrarily and capriciously by failing to thoroughly consider the 
presented evidence and explain its decision; the Court ordered the 
Commission to reconsider its disposition of the petition and issue a 
new decision consistent with the Court's opinion. See id. at *13. In 
particular, the Court concluded that the Commission had not adequately 
addressed evidence concerning the 15% vote share polling threshold used 
by the Commission on Presidential Debates (``CPD'') as a criterion for 
inclusion in presidential general election debates. See id. at *12 
(noting that ``for thirty years [CPD] has been the only debate staging 
organization for presidential debates'' and concluding that Commission 
had arbitrarily ignored evidence particular to CPD's polling 
criterion). The Court declined to ``take the extraordinary step of 
ordering promulgation of a new rule,'' but instead remanded for the 
Commission to ``give the Petition the consideration it requires'' and 
publish a new reasoned disposition or the commencement of rulemaking 
``if the Commission so decides.'' Id. at *11, *13 (citing Shays v. FEC, 
424 F. Supp. 2d 100, 116-17 (D.D.C. 2006)).
    In accordance with the Court's instructions, the Commission has 
reconsidered the full rulemaking record. On the basis of this review, 
the Commission again declines to initiate a rulemaking to amend 11 CFR 
110.13(c) at this time. The analysis below is intended to supplement, 
rather than replace, the analysis that the Commission provided in its 
original Notice of Disposition. 80 FR 72616.

Purpose and Requirements of Existing Candidate Debate Regulation

    As the Commission stated in adopting the current candidate debate 
regulation in 1995, ``the purpose of section 110.13 . . . is to provide 
a specific exception so that certain nonprofit organizations . . . and 
the news media may stage debates, without being deemed to have made 
prohibited corporate contributions to the candidates taking part in 
debates.'' Corporate and Labor Organization Activity; Express Advocacy 
and Coordination with Candidates, 60 FR 64260, 64261 (Dec. 14, 
1995).\1\ Accordingly, the Commission has required that debate 
``staging organizations use pre-

[[Page 15469]]

established objective criteria to avoid the real or apparent potential 
for a quid pro quo, and to ensure the integrity and fairness of the 
process.'' Id. at 64262. In discussing objective selection criteria, 
the Commission has noted that debate staging organizations may use them 
to ``control the number of candidates participating in . . . a 
meaningful debate'' but must not use criteria ``designed to result in 
the selection of certain pre-chosen participants.'' Id. The Commission 
has further explained that while ``[t]he choice of which objective 
criteria to use is largely left to the discretion of the staging 
organization,'' the rule contains an implied reasonableness 
requirement. Id. Within the realm of reasonable criteria, the 
Commission has stated that it ``gives great latitude in establishing 
the criteria for participant selection'' to debate staging 
organizations under 11 CFR 110.13.\2\ First General Counsel's Report at 
n.5, MUR 5530 (Commission on Presidential Debates) (May 4, 2005), 
http://eqs.fec.gov/eqsdocsMUR/000043F0.pdf.
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    \1\ See also Funding and Sponsorship of Federal Candidate 
Debates, 44 FR 76734 (Dec. 27, 1979) (explaining that, through 
candidate debate rule, costs of staging multi-candidate nonpartisan 
debates are not contributions or expenditures); 11 CFR 100.92 
(excluding funds provided for costs of candidate debates staged 
under 11 CFR 110.13 from definition of ``contribution''); 11 CFR 
100.154 (excluding funds used for costs of candidate debates staged 
under 11 CFR 110.13 from definition of ``expenditure'').
    \2\ See Candidate Debates and News Stories, 61 FR 18049 (Apr. 
24, 1996) (quoting H.R. Rep. No. 93-1239 at 4 (1974)).
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    In the first major enforcement action under this regulation almost 
two decades ago, the Commission found that CPD's use of polling data 
(among other criteria) did not result in an unlawful corporate 
contribution, with five Commissioners observing that it would make 
``little sense'' if ``a debate sponsor could not look at the latest 
poll results even though the rest of the nation could look at this as 
an indicator of a candidate's popularity.'' MUR 4451/4473 Commission 
Statement of Reasons at 8 n.7 (Commission on Presidential Debates) 
(Apr. 6, 1998), http://www.fec.gov/disclosure_data/mur/4451.pdf#page=459. Citing this statement, one court noted with respect 
to the use of polling thresholds as debate selection criteria that 
``[i]t is difficult to understand why it would be unreasonable or 
subjective to consider the extent of a candidate's electoral support 
prior to the debate to determine whether the candidate is viable enough 
to be included.'' Buchanan v. FEC, 112 F. Supp. 2d 58, 75 (D.D.C. 
2000). Nonetheless, the Commission has noted that while it cannot 
reasonably ``question[ ] each and every . . . candidate assessment 
criterion,'' it can evaluate ``evidence that [such a] criterion was 
`fixed' or arranged in some manner so as to guarantee a preordained 
result.'' MUR 4451/4473 Commission Statement of Reasons at 8-9 
(Commission on Presidential Debates).

The Arguments for Changing the Regulation

    The petition and many of the comments supporting it essentially 
argue that CPD's 15% threshold is a non-objective criterion because it 
is unreliable and/or intended to unfairly benefit major party 
candidates at the expense of independent and third-party candidates. 
The Court summarized the petition's arguments as attempting to 
establish, first, that ``CPD's polling threshold is being used 
subjectively to exclude independent and third-party candidates'' and, 
second, that ``polling thresholds are particularly unreliable and 
susceptible to . . . subjective use at the presidential level, 
undermining the FEC's stated goal of using `objective criteria to avoid 
the real or apparent potential for a quid pro quo, and to ensure the 
integrity and fairness of the process.' '' Level the Playing Field, 
2017 WL 437400 at *12.
    In essence, the petition argues that there are biases against 
third-party and independent candidates in accurate polling, and 
therefore that a polling threshold requirement like CPD's presents 
these candidates with a Catch-22 scenario:

    [A polling threshold] effectively institutionalizes the 
Democratic and Republican candidates as the only options with which 
the voters are presented. A third-party or independent candidate who 
is excluded from the debates loses the opportunity to take the stage 
against the major party nominees and demonstrate that he or she is a 
better alternative; the media does not cover the candidate; and the 
candidate does not get the public exposure necessary to compete. The 
``determination'' that a [third-party or independent] candidate is 
not viable because he or she lacks a certain amount of support 
becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Petition at 3. The petition argues that inclusion of independent and 
third-party candidates in presidential general election debates 
furthers voter education and voter turnout, which, the petition 
asserts, are policy purposes underlying the regulation.

Summary of Petition Evidence in Support of Changing the Regulation

    In support of the argument that polling thresholds have the purpose 
or effect of favoring major party candidates over third-party or 
independent candidates, the petition presents facts and analysis 
regarding the name recognition required to poll at CPD's 15% threshold 
and the amount of money required to gain that level of name 
recognition. The petition provides further factual submissions that, 
according to the petition, show that the unreliability of polling--both 
generally and with respect to independent and third-party candidates--
renders the 15% threshold unattainable and unreasonable for independent 
and third-party candidates.
    The crux of the petition's factual submissions consists of two 
reports that purport to show that CPD's 15% threshold is designed to 
result in the exclusion of independent or third-party candidates. The 
first report, by Dr. Clifford Young, concludes that in order to reach a 
15% threshold, a candidate must achieve name recognition among 60-80% 
of the population.\3\ The second, by Douglas Schoen, estimates that the 
cost to a third-party or independent candidate of achieving 60% name 
recognition would be over $266 million, including almost $120 million 
for paid media content production and dissemination, which the report 
concludes is not a reasonably reachable figure for a non-major-party 
candidate.\4\ Additionally, both the Young and Schoen reports conclude 
that polling in three-way races is inherently unreliable and not, 
therefore, an objective measure of the viability of third-party and 
independent candidates. In reaching their conclusions, both the Young 
and Schoen reports assert that third-party and independent candidates 
are disadvantaged by the fact that they do not benefit from a ``party 
halo effect'' by which Democratic and Republican candidates--regardless 
of name recognition--may garner a minimum vote share in polling merely 
for being associated with a major party, in addition to benefitting 
from increased name recognition from media coverage of the major party 
primary season.\5\
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    \3\ Petition Ex. 3 (``Young Report'').
    \4\ Petition Ex. 11 (``Schoen Report'').
    \5\ See Young Report at ]] 21-22.
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The Commission's Assessment of the Petition's Factual Submissions

1. Submissions Regarding Whether a 15% Threshold Cannot Be Attained by 
(and Therefore Excludes) Independent and Third-Party Candidates

    The Young Report's conclusion that third-party and independent 
candidates require a 60-80% name recognition to meet CPD's 15% 
threshold does not provide a persuasive basis for changing the 
candidate debate regulation. Dr. Young acknowledges that his report's 
analysis is one-dimensional; it correlates polling results to name 
recognition alone, and then it draws conclusions regarding hypothetical 
third-party candidate performance based on that one factor. More

[[Page 15470]]

specifically, Dr. Young acknowledges that polling results are not 
merely a function of name recognition--they are a much more complex 
confluence of factors. See Young Report at ]] 10, 20(d) (listing other 
factors, beyond name recognition, affecting candidate vote share, 
including ``fundraising, candidate positioning, election results, and 
idiosyncratic events''); see also Nate Silver, A Polling Based Forecast 
of the Republican Primary Field, FiveThirtyEight Politics (May 11, 
2011) (attached to Petition as Exhibit 20) (noting that, more than name 
recognition, ``laying the groundwork for a run quite early on,'' 
including efforts to ``hire staff, cultivate early support, brush up [ 
] media skills,'' predicts later vote share success). Due to the Young 
Report's focus on this one correlative factor, the report does not 
purport to establish any causative effect between name recognition and 
vote share, and it does not account for how external forces apart from 
name recognition--such as fundraising, candidate positioning, election 
results, and idiosyncratic events--may influence vote share. For 
example, the report does not take into consideration forces that might 
increase the vote share of an otherwise unfamiliar independent 
candidate--such as high unfavorable ratings among major party 
candidates--or forces that might decrease the vote share of an 
independent candidate who has become well-recognized--such as policy 
preferences or political missteps. Because it largely omits analysis of 
all other factors beyond name recognition, the Commission is not 
persuaded that the Young Report's conclusions are a sufficient basis on 
which to determine that a 15% polling threshold is so inherently 
unreachable by non-major-party candidates that the Commission should 
provide that sponsors of general election presidential debates must be 
prohibited as a matter of law from using it in order to fulfill the 
statutory prohibition on corporate contributions.
    Moreover, even within the confines of name recognition, the Young 
Report is only weakly applicable to the debates at issue, which are 
presidential general election debates. The Young Report reaches its 60-
80% name recognition result through three models, all of which 
extrapolate from data about name recognition of major party candidates 
at the early stages of the party primary process (i.e., before the Iowa 
caucuses) because, the report explains, ``party halo effects'' may be 
lower during early primary polling. Young Report at ] 22. The decision 
to measure name recognition at this extraordinarily early stage in all 
three models, even if only in part, may amplify polling errors, which 
the report notes are higher earlier in the election cycle than during 
the later ``election salience'' period--from one day to several months 
before election day--during which people start paying more attention to 
the election. Id. at ]] 43(g), (i). Additionally, the use of the early 
party primary stage as the point of comparison for third-party or 
independent candidates' name recognition in September does not address 
or account for differences in the size of the candidate fields at those 
points in time. Thus, the Young Report's observations regarding early 
primary candidates provide little or no persuasive evidence as to the 
effect of a polling threshold on presidential general election 
candidates.
    In addition, the petition appears to draw inapposite conclusions 
from the Young Report's data. Critically, neither the Young Report nor 
other evidence submitted with the petition or comments establishes that 
third-party or independent candidates do not or cannot meet 60-80% name 
recognition. In fact, at least one third-party candidate was reported 
to achieve over 60% name recognition in the most recent presidential 
campaign prior to the general election debates. See Poll Results: Third 
Party Candidates, YouGov (Aug. 25-26, 2016), available at https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/wc35k48hrs/tabs_HP_Third_Party_Candidates_20160831.pdf (showing Gary Johnson and 
Jill Stein having 63% and 59% name recognition among registered voters, 
respectively). Thus, there is no information in the rulemaking record 
showing that 60-80% name recognition is a prohibitively high bar for 
independent candidates. In other words, even if the Commission were to 
assume arguendo that 60-80% name recognition correlates with 15% vote 
share, there is no information in the record demonstrating that these 
thresholds inherently function to exclude third-party or independent 
candidates because of their party status.
    Instead, the petition uses Dr. Young's name recognition threshold 
as a springboard to the primary argument of the Schoen Report: That the 
cost of achieving 15% vote share is prohibitively high for independent 
candidates. The Schoen Report starts from the premise that 60-80% name 
recognition is necessary to gain a 15% vote share and proceeds to 
estimate the amount of money that an independent candidate would need 
to spend to reach 60-80% name recognition. For the reasons stated 
above, the Commission does not find that this premise is adequately 
established by the Young Report, and therefore the Commission questions 
whether the Schoen Report possesses any meaningful evidentiary value. 
But even assuming that a candidate must reach 60-80% name recognition 
to achieve a 15% threshold in vote share, the Commission finds the 
Schoen Report not to provide a reasoned evidentiary basis for amending 
the rule at issue.
    The Commission is unpersuaded by the Schoen Report primarily 
because the report builds its conclusion through an extensive series of 
unsupported suppositions and assertions. For example, to explain a 
significant portion of its calculations, the report states that ``the 
media will not cover an independent candidate until they are certainly 
in the debates.'' Schoen Report at 3. But the report provides no basis 
for this assertion other than an unexplained reference to the number of 
publications ``follow[ing]'' one particular candidate (id. at 5), and 
the Commission is aware of at least three non-major-party candidates 
who did not participate in the general election debates but received 
significant media attention in 2016.\6\
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    \6\ Searches of the Thompson Reuters Westlaw ``Newspaper'' 
database for mentions in 2016 of independent and third-party 2016 
presidential candidate names (``Gary Johnson,'' ``Jill Stein,'' and 
``Evan McMullin'') show thousands of results. Moreover, the number 
of results for references to these independent candidates was 
comparable to the number of results for references to several major 
party candidates during comparable time periods. Using as a baseline 
the 277 days from the lead up to the first Republican party primary 
debate until Donald Trump was determined to be the presumptive 
nominee (August 1, 2015, to May 4, 2016), and the similar 277-day 
period of September 4, 2015 (before the first Democratic primary 
debate) to June 7, 2016 (when Hillary Clinton became the presumptive 
Democratic nominee), the Commission looked at mentions for 
independent candidates during the 277 days before the general 
election (February 5-November, 7, 2016). Those results show that 
Gary Johnson (with 3,001 results) was comparable to Bobby Jindal and 
Mike Huckabee (with 2,894 and 3,274 results, respectively); Jill 
Stein (with 1,744 results) was comparable to Rick Perry and Martin 
O'Malley (with 2,278 and 2,566 results, respectively); and Evan 
McMullin (with 353 results) was comparable to Lincoln Chafee, Jim 
Webb, and George Pataki (with 424, 521, and 937 results, 
respectively). And, while searches for Donald Trump's and Hillary 
Clinton's names returned significantly more results (7,451 and 
7,404, respectively), those results were in line with other 
candidates who did not achieve high vote share in the party 
primaries, such as Jeb Bush with 7,102 results.
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    In another premise that the report uses to build its later 
conclusions, the Schoen Report asserts that independent candidates are 
disadvantaged because they ``must resort to launching a massive 
national media campaign'' while major party candidates ``by competing 
in small state primaries, can build their name recognition without

[[Page 15471]]

the costs of running a national campaign.'' Id. In support of this 
statement, the report states that ``Obama's 2008 victory in the Iowa 
caucuses catapulted him to national prominence.'' Id. In fact, polling 
expert Nate Silver has noted that ``contrary to the conventional 
wisdom, which holds that Barack Obama suddenly burst onto the political 
scene, the polling shows that he was already reasonably well-known to 
voters in advance of the 2008 primaries, largely as a result of his 
speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention. His name was 
recognized by around 60 percent of primary voters by late 2006, and 
that figure quickly ramped up to 80 or 90 percent after he declared for 
the presidency in February, 2007.'' Nate Silver, A Brief History of 
Primary Polling, Part II, FiveThirtyEight (Apr. 4, 2011), https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-brief-history-of-primary-polling-part-ii/. The only other basis that the report provides for this portion of 
its conclusion is the statement that Senator Rick Santorum ``spent only 
$21,980 in [Iowa], or 73 cents per vote'' in 2012. Schoen Report at 5. 
It is not clear how the newspaper article cited by the report derived 
this figure, and Schoen (despite having access to all relevant 
financial data through the FEC's Web site) does not appear to have 
assessed its accuracy. In fact, reports filed with the Commission for 
the period ending three days before the Iowa caucus show that Senator 
Santorum made disbursements of $1,906,018. Rick Santorum for President, 
FEC Form 3P at 4 (Jan. 31, 2012), http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/317/12950383317/12950383317.pdf. While not all of these disbursements were 
targeted to Iowa, the candidate's total spending in relation to the 
caucuses in that state was far higher than $21,980. Even looking at 
only reported disbursements to Iowa payees (and, therefore, not 
including payments to media buyers and others outside of Iowa for 
activities targeted towards Iowa), the filings shows that Santorum 
spent over $112,000 in Iowa between October 1 and December 31, 2011, 
for purposes including rent, payroll, lodging, direct mail, 
advertising, communication consulting, and coalition building. Id. 
Thus, the Schoen Report's use of unexplained second-hand analysis 
undercuts its credibility, and the facts demonstrated by the public 
record give the Commission reason to doubt the Schoen Report's 
calculations regarding any extra benefit major party primary candidates 
receive from their media expenditures.
    In addition, the Schoen Report states that media costs to 
accomplish 60% name recognition are higher in three-way races due to 
increased competition, and the report increases its cost estimate 
accordingly.\7\ But the 60% figure is apparently drawn from the Young 
Report, which, as discussed above, addresses the very earliest stages 
of major party primaries. Like the Young Report, the Schoen Report does 
not explain why or how this 60% figure can be extrapolated from early 
major party primaries to three-way general elections.
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    \7\ Schoen Report at 3; see also id. at 10 (asserting, without 
supporting data or sources, that costs will likely be 
``significantly'' higher ``in an election year featuring three 
viable candidates'' and, therefore, adding 5% premium to report's 
earlier cost estimates).
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    The Schoen Report ultimately adopts an estimated cost of at least 
$100 million for a media buy that an independent candidate would 
require to gain the name recognition to meet the 15% threshold. Schoen 
Report at 6. Not only does this figure rely upon the faulty assumptions 
that the Commission has already noted, it is also unreliable for at 
least four additional reasons.
    First, the $100 million figure is taken from an estimate from ``a 
leading corporate and political media buying firm,'' without any 
underlying data and without any explanation of the circumstances under 
which the firm purportedly offered that estimate. Nor does the report 
address (or even acknowledge) any biases in that estimate that may stem 
from a media buying firm's financial interest in estimating or 
promoting high media buy costs. The Schoen Report simply provides no 
evidentiary basis for the Commission to credit this third-person 
estimate.
    Second, the $100 million estimate presumes that a candidate must go 
from zero percent name recognition to 60% name recognition, without 
noting the likelihood of a candidate starting from zero or otherwise 
explaining this assumption. The Schoen Report suggests, by consistently 
comparing the hypothetical independent candidate's position with the 
positions of his ``two'' (and only two) major party candidate 
competitors, that this zero percent baseline occurs at some point after 
the major parties have established presumptive nominees. See, e.g., 
Schoen Report at 10-11 (discussing ``the two major party campaigns'' 
with whom hypothetical independent candidate needing 60% name 
recognition will be competing for ad buy time); id. at 15 (same). A 
hypothetical situation in which a person with zero percent name 
recognition decides to run for president in approximately June of the 
election year and must raise name recognition from nothing to 60% 
within the three months before CPD looks at polls in September is 
unrelated to the realities of presidential elections. Presidential 
candidates--major party and third-party alike--generally begin 
campaigning a full year or more before the election, see, e.g., Jill 
Stein, FEC Form 2 (July 6, 2015) (declaring candidacy for president in 
2016 election cycle), and they rarely start with zero name recognition, 
see, e.g., Petition Ex. 13 (Gallup report showing 11 candidates 
(including Libertarian Gary Johnson) with over 10% name recognition in 
January 2011). The Schoen Report's scenario--and the conclusions that 
the report draws from it--therefore provides no persuasive support for 
the petition's assertion that the candidate debate regulation must be 
revised.
    Third, the Schoen Report bases its estimate of campaign and paid 
media costs on the assertion that independent candidates are unable to 
attract news media coverage. See Schoen Report at 4. But the report's 
assertion, based primarily on research published in 1999,\8\ seems 
particularly antiquated in the age of digital and social media. See 
Farhad Manjoo, I Ignored Trump News for a Week. Here's What I Learned, 
NY Times, Feb. 22, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/22/technology/trump-news-media-ignore.html (discussing news media coverage during and 
since 2016 presidential election campaign in light of social media 
pressures). The Commission declines to promulgate rules that will 
govern the 2020 presidential election and beyond on the basis of 
opinions that are premised on such obsolete data.
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    \8\ Schoen Report at 4 (citing Paul Herrnson & Rob Faucheux, 
Outside Looking In: Views of Third Party and Independent Candidates, 
Campaigns & Elections (Aug. 1999)). The assertion also appears to be 
in tension with the statutory exclusion of the news media coverage 
from legal treatment as campaign spending. See 52 U.S.C. 
30101(9)(B)(i) (excluding ``any news story . . . distributed through 
the facilities of any broadcasting station, newspaper, magazine, or 
other periodical'' from definition of ``expenditure'').
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    Fourth, the Schoen Report's media cost estimates do not appear to 
take account of media purchases in support of a candidate by outside 
groups, including independent expenditure-only political committees 
(``IEOPCs''). IEOPCs may create, produce, and distribute communications 
in support of, but independently of, a particular candidate, and in 
2016 several IEOPCs supported third-party candidate Gary

[[Page 15472]]

Johnson in just that way.\9\ In addition, IEOPCs may raise unlimited 
funds from individuals and from sources, like corporations, otherwise 
prohibited under the Federal Election Campaign Act, 52 U.S.C. 30101-46. 
Thus, the existence and rise of IEOPCs undermine the Schoen Report's 
assumptions about the amount of the average contribution to a 
candidate, as well as the report's extrapolations about the number of 
individual contributions needed and total sum necessary to reach Dr. 
Young's 60-80% name recognition threshold. See Schoen Report at 24-25 
(estimating third-party candidate's ``hypothetical average donation'' 
on basis of ``assumption for average donation'' of ``plurality'' of 
Obama and Romney contributors under $2600 maximum).
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    \9\ See Open Secrets, Independent Expenditures, Gary Johnson, 
2016 cycle, https://www.opensecrets.org/pres16/outside-spending?id=N00033226 (listing six ``Super PACs'' or IEOPCs 
supporting Johnson, two of which spent over $1 million in support) 
(last visited Feb. 24, 2017).
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    Ultimately, the unreliability of the Schoen Report's conclusions is 
most clearly demonstrated by the fact that third-party candidate Gary 
Johnson reached 60% name recognition by August 31, 2016.\10\ In the 
2016 election cycle through August 31, Johnson had spent almost $5.5 
million; this amount represents total disbursements for all purposes, 
including, but not limited to, media buys.\11\ According to the Schoen 
Report, such a result should have been impossible: Johnson should not 
have been able to achieve 60% name recognition until he spent at least 
$266 million--fifty times more than he actually did.\12\
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    \10\ See Ariel Edwards-Levy, Third-Party Candidates are Getting 
a Boost in Name Recognition, Huffington Post (Aug. 31, 2016) (noting 
Johnson's name recognition); Poll Results: Third Party Candidates, 
YouGov (Aug. 25-26, 2016), available at https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/wc35k48hrs/tabs_HP_Third_Party_Candidates_20160831.pdf (showing Gary Johnson 
and Jill Stein having 63% and 59% name recognition among registered 
voters, respectively).
    \11\ See Gary Johnson 2016, FEC Form 3P at 3-4 (Sept. 20, 2016), 
http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/391/201609209032026391/201609209032026391.pdf (showing receipts of $7,937,608 and 
disbursements of $5,444,704).
    \12\ The Young and Schoen Reports do not address a circumstance 
in which a candidate, like Gary Johnson, reaches at least 60% name 
recognition but does not reach a 15% threshold. The Commission 
notes, though, that this circumstance (in which name recognition 
does not translate to high vote share) might be explained by the 
other factors beyond name recognition that affect vote share, 
including ``fundraising, candidate positioning, election results, 
and idiosyncratic events,'' mentioned in the Young Report. See Young 
Report at ]] 10, 20(d). Moreover, the circumstance in which name 
recognition does not translate to high vote share is not unique to 
third party candidates. See note 6, above (discussing Jeb Bush).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For all of the foregoing reasons, the Commission finds the Schoen 
Report unpersuasive.
    Finally, the petition acknowledges that a number of third-party 
presidential candidates have performed sufficiently well that they were 
included or would have been included in debates with 15% thresholds. 
See Petition at 15-16. Indeed, the petition notes that as many as six 
candidates would apparently have satisfied this requirement at some 
point during their campaigns: Roosevelt in 1912, LaFolette in 1924, 
Thurmond in 1948, Wallace in 1968, Anderson in 1980, and Perot in 1992. 
Id. The petition asks the Commission to categorically disregard these 
examples because they predate the Internet, and in some cases, the 
television. Petition at 16.\13\ As discussed above, the Commission 
agrees that pre-Internet candidacies provide only a relatively weak 
basis assessing how easy or difficult it would be for candidates to 
achieve 15% vote share in a modern election. But to the extent that the 
availability of Internet communication has changed this calculus, the 
Commission notes that advertising on the Internet can cost 
significantly less money than advertising in more traditional media 
that was available to those pre-Internet independent candidates. See, 
e.g. Internet Communications, 71 FR 18589, 18589 (Apr. 12, 2006) 
(describing Internet as ``low-cost means of civic engagement and 
political advocacy'' and noting that Internet presents minimal barriers 
to entry compared to ``television or radio broadcasts or most other 
forms of mass communication''); Associated Press, Here's How Much Less 
than Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Spent on the Election, Fortune (Dec. 
9, 2016), http://fortune.com/2016/12/09/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-campaign-spending/ (comparing Hillary Clinton's ``more traditional'' 
television-heavy advertising strategy in campaign's last weeks--$72 
million on TV ads and about $16 million on Internet ads--with Donald 
Trump's ``nearly $39 million on last-minute TV ads and another $29 
million on digital''); see also Bill Allison et al., Tracking the 2016 
Presidential Money Race, Bloomberg Politics (Dec. 9, 2016), https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/ (noting that Trump's spending to ``target[ ] specific 
groups of Clinton backers with negative ads on social media to lower 
Democratic turnout . . . may have been a factor in Trump's performance 
in battleground states'').
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \13\ The petition also asks the Commission to disregard the 
strong polling results of third-party or independent candidates, 
like George Wallace and John Anderson, who have a prior affiliation 
with a major political party. Petition at 15. The Commission is not 
persuaded that disregarding those polling results would be 
reasonable in the context of assessing, as required by the court, 
whether the CPD's 15% threshold under the current candidate debate 
regulation acts ``subjectively to exclude independent and third-
party candidates,'' since the threshold would apply to all third-
party and independent candidates, regardless of prior affiliation. 
Level the Playing Field, 2017 WL 437400 at *12.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In sum, the Commission concludes that the petition does not present 
credible evidence that a 15% threshold is so unobtainable by 
independent or third-party candidates that it is per se subjective or 
intended to exclude them.

2. Submissions Regarding Whether Polls are Unreliable and 
Systematically Disfavor Independent and Third-Party Candidate

    The Young Report's examination of polling error in three-way races 
with independents seeks to determine, essentially, if the threshold is 
drawn in the right place to identify candidates that actually have a 
15% vote share. Young Report at ] 60. The Young Report concludes that 
polls in three-way races have greater errors than polls in two-way 
races. Specifically, the Young Report extrapolates from gubernatorial 
election polls taken two months before the general election (the point 
at which CPD uses polls as a debate inclusion criterion) where there is 
an 8% error rate in three-way races compared to a 5.5% error rate in 
two-way races. Id. at ]] 52-56. Adjusting for the fact that 
gubernatorial race polling is ``more error prone'' than presidential 
race polling, the Young Report concludes that the applicable error rate 
is 6.04%. Id. at ]] 57-58. The Young Report continues to extrapolate 
the effect of this error on candidates, such as independent or third-
party candidates, that poll close to the 15% threshold; for these 
candidates, the Young Report concludes that there is an approximately 
40% chance that a third-party or independent candidate who holds the 
support of 15% of the population would be excluded. Id. at ]] 59-66.
    The Commission is unpersuaded by this analysis for two fundamental 
reasons. First, as the Commission noted in its original notice of 
disposition, the fact that polling data can be erroneous does not mean 
that a debate staging organization acts subjectively in using it. 80 FR 
at 72618 n.6. By way of analogy, consider a school district with a 
policy of canceling school if a majority of local television news 
stations predict at least six inches of snow for the next day. That 
policy would be facially objective, even though such weather forecasts 
are known to be significantly

[[Page 15473]]

inaccurate. The policy would be subjective only if the inaccuracy in 
the forecast were systematically biased for or against the condition 
being triggered (e.g., if the local weather forecasters regularly used 
high-end estimates of snow to drive viewer interest). But this 
demonstrates the second reason the Commission is unpersuaded by the 
petition's submissions regarding polling unreliability: The petition 
provides no evidence that the polling error is biased in a manner 
specific to party affiliation, that is, that polling is biased against 
third-party or independent candidates. Indeed, the petition explicitly 
acknowledges that ``it [is] wholly unclear whether the polling over- or 
underestimate[s] the potential of the third party candidate.'' Petition 
at 19 (quoting Schoen Report at 28). Thus, the Commission concludes 
that the petition does not demonstrate that statistical errors in 
polling data render the use of such data subjective or show that it is 
intended to exclude third-party candidates.\14\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \14\ Because this data, even as cited by the petition, does not 
show that the regulation should be amended, the Commission need not 
further assess the data's validity. Nonetheless, the Commission 
notes that there are significant structural differences between the 
state polls cited by Dr. Young and national presidential polls. See, 
e.g., Young Report at ]] 41 (explaining differences between 
reputable national and state or local polls, with respect to both 
number of interviews and margins of error), 57 (showing significant 
differences between state and federal polling at different points in 
time). Although Dr. Young adjusts the state-poll results before 
applying them to his national analysis, (see id. ] 58), the manner 
in which the adjustment is described leaves unexplained whether the 
adjustment accounts for all of the relevant differences between 
state and national polls.
    The Petitioner also submitted in response to the Notice of 
Availability a comment with additional data concerning ``grossly 
inaccurate'' polling in 2014 midterm Senate and gubernatorial 
elections. Level the Playing Field, Comment at 1 (Nov. 26, 2014), 
http://sers.fec.gov/fosers/showpdf.htm?docid=310980. However, 
attachments to the comment note that ``midterm polling biases in 
Senate elections are far worse than in presidential elections.'' Id. 
at Exhibit A. And a chart created by the Petitioner for the comment 
shows that, of ten races with purportedly high polling errors in 
races without a ``viable third-party or independent candidate,'' the 
two races included in the chart with the lowest polling error are, 
in fact, the only two races that include a third-party or 
independent candidate. Compare Level the Playing Field, Comment at 3 
(showing Georgia and North Carolina Senate races with the lowest 
final polling errors of those entries in chart) to Level the Playing 
Field, Comment at Exhibit C (showing Georgia and North Carolina 
Senate as only races included in chart that involved three-way race 
polling). For all of these reasons, the Commission is not persuaded 
that the Petitioner's submissions regarding state and Senate polls 
indicate any systematic, anti-third-party flaw in the polls at issue 
here, which are presidential general election polls.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The petition does imply that third-party and independent candidates 
are at a disadvantage because ``there is no requirement that pollsters 
test third-party and independent candidates,'' and therefore the CPD 
might ``cherry pick from among the myriad polls that exist in order to 
engineer a specific outcome.'' Petition at 17-18. But the petition 
presents no evidence that such manipulation has ever occurred, and the 
Commission is unwilling to predicate a rule change on unsupported 
speculation of wrongdoing. A debate sponsor who took actions to 
manipulate the ``pre-established'' and ``objective'' selection criteria 
so as to ``select[ ] certain pre-chosen participants'' by cherry-
picking polls that excluded other candidates would violate the existing 
rule. Corporate and Labor Organization Activity; Express Advocacy and 
Coordination with Candidates, 60 FR at 64262.
    The petition further argues that lowering the polling threshold is 
insufficient to solve polling error problems. As an initial matter, the 
Commission notes that the Young Report does not conclude that any and 
all polling thresholds are unreliable. On this point, in addition to 
the Young and Schoen Reports discussed above, Petitioner cites an 
article from Nate Silver on Republican primaries for the conclusion 
that ``a simple poll does not capture a candidate's potential.'' 
Petition at 17 (citing Nate Silver, A Polling Based Forecast of the 
Republican Primary Field, FiveThirtyEight Politics (May 11, 2011) 
(attached to Petition as Exhibit 20)). The cited article, though, 
concludes what appears to be the opposite of the point for which it is 
cited; it starts by explaining that it will prove the author's 
contention that ``polls have enough predictive power to be a worthwhile 
starting point.'' Petition, Ex. 20. In fact, that article was part four 
of a four part series. The second sentence of part one of that series 
explained that the series was intended to show that ``national polls of 
primary voters--even [nine months] out from the Iowa caucuses and New 
Hampshire primary--do have a reasonable amount of predictive power in 
informing us as to the identity of the eventual nominee.'' Nate Silver, 
A Brief History of Primary Polling, Part I, FiveThirtyEight (Mar. 31, 
2011), https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-brief-history-of-primary-polling-part-i/. Moreover, polls like those used in September by CPD 
are not ``inaccurate'' or ``unreliable'' simply because their 
assessments of vote share do not match the final vote share on Election 
Day; such polls are ``designed to measure the true level of public 
support at the time the poll is administered,'' not ``to measure the 
true level of public support on Election Day.'' Commission on 
Presidential Debates, Comment at Ex. 2 ] 20 (Declaration of Frank M. 
Newport, Editor-in-Chief, Gallup Organization) (Dec. 15, 2014), http://sers.fec.gov/fosers/showpdf.htm?docid=310982. As the Newport 
Declaration notes, ``there is no doubt that properly conducted polls 
remain the best measure of public support for a candidate . . . at the 
time the polls are conducted.'' Id. at Ex. 2 ] 21.

3. Submissions Regarding the Desirability of Expanding Debate 
Participation

    The petition and most of the commenters who support it rely 
primarily on policy arguments that polling thresholds are inconsistent 
with the purposes of the existing regulations and that those purposes 
would be better served by, in essence, including more voices on the 
debate stage.\15\ The Commission explained in its original Notice of 
Disposition why it was not persuaded by the petition's ``arguments in 
favor of debate selection criteria that

[[Page 15474]]

would include more candidates in general election presidential and vice 
presidential debates.'' 80 FR at 72617. As the Commission explained, 
``The rule at section 110.13(c) . . . is not intended to maximize the 
number of debate participants; it is intended to ensure that staging 
organizations do not select participants in such a way that the costs 
of a debate constitute corporate contributions to the candidates taking 
part.'' Id. That is the only basis on which the Commission is 
authorized to regulate in this area. The Commission has no independent 
statutory basis for regulating the number of candidates who participate 
in debates, and the merits or drawbacks of increasing such 
participation--except to the limited extent that they implicate federal 
campaign finance law -- are policy questions outside the Commission's 
jurisdiction.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \15\ A substantial majority of the comments that the Commission 
received on the petition were cursory and consisted of a single 
sentence expressing support for the petition. See, e.g., Comment by 
Amanda Powell, REG 2014-06 Amendment of 11 CFR 110.13(c) (Dec. 15, 
2014) (``I support the petition.''), http://sers.fec.gov/fosers/showpdf.htm?docid=310989. Additionally, the League of Women Voters 
``does not support amending the FEC regulation to preclude sponsors 
of general election presidential and vice presidential debates from 
requiring that a candidate meet a polling threshold in order to be 
included in the debate,'' but did generally support opening a 
rulemaking, though without supporting or proposing any specific 
proposal. Comment by League of Women Voters, REG 2014-06 Amendment 
of 11 CFR 110.13(c) (Dec. 15, 2014), http://sers.fec.gov/fosers/showpdf.htm?docid=310985. The comment did not, however, present any 
substantial justification for doing so. Moreover, such an open-ended 
inquiry was not the focus of the petition for rulemaking.
    Another commenter, FairVote, indicated that it ``do[es] not 
oppose the use of polling as a debate selection criterion so long as 
candidates have an alternative means of qualifying for inclusion.'' 
See Comment by FairVote, REG 2014-06 Amendment of 11 CFR 110.13(c) 
(Dec. 15, 2014), http://sers.fec.gov/fosers/showpdf.htm?docid=310974. That commenter emphasized the Commission's 
recognition of the educational purpose of candidate debates and 
advocated that including additional candidates in debates would 
``broaden the substantive discussion within the debates.'' Id. As 
explained supra, however, the main purpose of the regulation at 
issue is to clarify when money spent on debate sponsorship is exempt 
from the FECA's definition of ``contribution.'' The Commission's 
recognition of the educational value of debates does not alter its 
view that the determination of which candidates participate in a 
given debate should generally be left to the organizations 
sponsoring such events. See supra. In addition, while the Commenter 
supported Petitioner's proposed alternative to select a third debate 
participant based upon the number of signatures gathered to obtain 
ballot access, the existing rule already permits this alternative 
and thus amending the rule is not required to allow for that 
approach. See id.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conclusion
    The evidence presented to the Commission in the petition and 
comments on the impracticability of independent candidates reaching the 
15% threshold and on the unreliability of polling do not lead the 
Commission to conclude that the CPD's use of such a threshold for 
selecting debate participants is per se subjective, so as to require 
initiating a rulemaking to amend 11 CFR 110.13(c). While the reports by 
Dr. Young and Mr. Schoen, in addition to the historical polling and 
campaign finance data presented with the petition, demonstrate certain 
challenges that independent candidates may face when seeking the 
presidency, these submissions do not demonstrate either that the 
threshold is so high that only Democratic and Republican nominees could 
reasonably achieve it, or that the threshold is intended to result in 
the selection of those nominees to participate in the debates.
    For all of the above reasons, in addition to the reasons discussed 
in the Notice of Disposition published in 2015, see Candidate Debates, 
80 FR 72616, and because the Commission has determined that further 
pursuit of a rulemaking would not be a prudent use of available 
Commission resources, see 11 CFR 200.5(e), the Commission declines to 
commence a rulemaking that would amend the criteria for staging 
candidate debates in 11 CFR 110.13(c) to prohibit the use of a polling 
threshold to determine participation in presidential general election 
debates.

    On behalf of the Commission,

    Dated: March 23, 2017.
Steven T. Walther,
Chairman, Federal Election Commission.
[FR Doc. 2017-06150 Filed 3-28-17; 8:45 am]
 BILLING CODE 6715-01-P



                                                    15468

                                                    Proposed Rules                                                                                                Federal Register
                                                                                                                                                                  Vol. 82, No. 59

                                                                                                                                                                  Wednesday, March 29, 2017



                                                    This section of the FEDERAL REGISTER                    participating candidates, requires                    the Commission had not adequately
                                                    contains notices to the public of the proposed          staging organizations to ‘‘use pre-                   addressed evidence concerning the 15%
                                                    issuance of rules and regulations. The                  established objective criteria to                     vote share polling threshold used by the
                                                    purpose of these notices is to give interested          determine which candidates may                        Commission on Presidential Debates
                                                    persons an opportunity to participate in the            participate in a debate’’ and further                 (‘‘CPD’’) as a criterion for inclusion in
                                                    rule making prior to the adoption of the final
                                                                                                            specifies that, for general election                  presidential general election debates.
                                                    rules.
                                                                                                            debates, staging organizations ‘‘shall not            See id. at *12 (noting that ‘‘for thirty
                                                                                                            use nomination by a particular political              years [CPD] has been the only debate
                                                    FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION                             party as the sole objective criterion to              staging organization for presidential
                                                                                                            determine whether to include a                        debates’’ and concluding that
                                                    11 CFR Part 110                                         candidate in a debate.’’ 11 CFR                       Commission had arbitrarily ignored
                                                                                                            110.13(c). The petition asks the                      evidence particular to CPD’s polling
                                                    [Notice 2017–09]
                                                                                                            Commission to amend 11 CFR 110.13(c)                  criterion). The Court declined to ‘‘take
                                                    Candidate Debates                                       in two respects: (1) To preclude                      the extraordinary step of ordering
                                                                                                            sponsors of general election presidential             promulgation of a new rule,’’ but
                                                    AGENCY:  Federal Election Commission.                   and vice presidential debates from                    instead remanded for the Commission to
                                                    ACTION: Supplemental Notice of                          requiring that a candidate meet a polling             ‘‘give the Petition the consideration it
                                                    Disposition of Petition for Rulemaking.                 threshold in order to be included in the              requires’’ and publish a new reasoned
                                                                                                            debate; and (2) to require sponsors of                disposition or the commencement of
                                                    SUMMARY:   On February 1, 2017, the U.S.                                                                      rulemaking ‘‘if the Commission so
                                                                                                            general election presidential and vice
                                                    District Court for the District of                                                                            decides.’’ Id. at *11, *13 (citing Shays v.
                                                                                                            presidential debates to have a set of
                                                    Columbia ordered the Commission to                                                                            FEC, 424 F. Supp. 2d 100, 116–17
                                                                                                            objective, unbiased criteria for debate
                                                    reconsider its disposition of the Petition                                                                    (D.D.C. 2006)).
                                                                                                            participation that do not require
                                                    for Rulemaking filed by Level the                                                                                In accordance with the Court’s
                                                                                                            candidates to satisfy a polling threshold.
                                                    Playing Field and to issue a new                                                                              instructions, the Commission has
                                                                                                            The petition included, in addition to
                                                    decision consistent with the Court’s                                                                          reconsidered the full rulemaking record.
                                                                                                            legal arguments, reports and other
                                                    opinion. The Petition for Rulemaking                                                                          On the basis of this review, the
                                                                                                            evidence in support of its position.
                                                    asks the Commission to amend its                                                                              Commission again declines to initiate a
                                                    regulation on candidate debates to                      Procedural History                                    rulemaking to amend 11 CFR 110.13(c)
                                                    revise the criteria governing the                          The Commission published a Notice                  at this time. The analysis below is
                                                    inclusion of candidates in presidential                 of Availability seeking comment on the                intended to supplement, rather than
                                                    and vice presidential general election                  petition on November 14, 2014.                        replace, the analysis that the
                                                    debates. In this supplement to the                      Candidate Debates, 79 FR 68137. The                   Commission provided in its original
                                                    Notice of Disposition, as directed by the               Commission received 1264 comments in                  Notice of Disposition. 80 FR 72616.
                                                    Court, the Commission provides further                  response to that notice, including one
                                                    explanation of its decision to not initiate                                                                   Purpose and Requirements of Existing
                                                                                                            from the Petitioner that included                     Candidate Debate Regulation
                                                    a rulemaking at this time.                              updated and additional factual
                                                    DATES: March 29, 2017.                                                                                           As the Commission stated in adopting
                                                                                                            submissions. On November 20, 2015,                    the current candidate debate regulation
                                                    ADDRESSES: The petition and other                       the Commission published in the
                                                    documents relating to this matter are                                                                         in 1995, ‘‘the purpose of section 110.13
                                                                                                            Federal Register a Notice of Disposition              . . . is to provide a specific exception
                                                    available on the Commission’s Web site,                 in which it explained why it would not
                                                    www.fec.gov/fosers (reference REG                                                                             so that certain nonprofit organizations
                                                                                                            initiate a rulemaking. Candidate                      . . . and the news media may stage
                                                    2014–06), and in the Commission’s                       Debates, 80 FR 72616.
                                                    Public Records Office, 999 E Street NW.,                                                                      debates, without being deemed to have
                                                                                                               The Petitioner and others sued on the              made prohibited corporate contributions
                                                    Washington, DC 20463.                                   basis that the Commission’s failure to                to the candidates taking part in
                                                    FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Mr.                    initiate a rulemaking was arbitrary and               debates.’’ Corporate and Labor
                                                    Robert M. Knop, Assistant General                       capricious in violation of the                        Organization Activity; Express
                                                    Counsel, or Ms. Jessica Selinkoff,                      Administrative Procedure Act. See Level               Advocacy and Coordination with
                                                    Attorney, 999 E Street NW.,                             the Playing Field v. FEC, No. 15–cv–                  Candidates, 60 FR 64260, 64261 (Dec.
                                                    Washington, DC 20463, (202) 694–1650                    1397, 2017 WL 437400 at *1 (D.D.C.                    14, 1995).1 Accordingly, the
                                                    or (800) 424–9530.                                      Feb. 1, 2017) (citing 5 U.S.C. 706). On               Commission has required that debate
                                                    SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: On                           February 1, 2017, the U.S. District Court             ‘‘staging organizations use pre-
                                                    September 11, 2014, the Commission                      for the District of Columbia concluded
                                                    received a Petition for Rulemaking from                 that the Commission acted arbitrarily
mstockstill on DSK3G9T082PROD with PROPOSALS




                                                                                                                                                                     1 See also Funding and Sponsorship of Federal

                                                    Level the Playing Field (‘‘Petitioner’’)                and capriciously by failing to                        Candidate Debates, 44 FR 76734 (Dec. 27, 1979)
                                                    regarding the Commission’s regulation                   thoroughly consider the presented                     (explaining that, through candidate debate rule,
                                                                                                                                                                  costs of staging multi-candidate nonpartisan
                                                    at 11 CFR 110.13(c). That regulation                    evidence and explain its decision; the                debates are not contributions or expenditures); 11
                                                    governs the criteria that debate staging                Court ordered the Commission to                       CFR 100.92 (excluding funds provided for costs of
                                                    organizations use for inclusion in                      reconsider its disposition of the petition            candidate debates staged under 11 CFR 110.13 from
                                                                                                                                                                  definition of ‘‘contribution’’); 11 CFR 100.154
                                                    candidate debates. The regulation, to                   and issue a new decision consistent                   (excluding funds used for costs of candidate debates
                                                    prevent corporate spending on debates                   with the Court’s opinion. See id. at *13.             staged under 11 CFR 110.13 from definition of
                                                    from constituting contributions to the                  In particular, the Court concluded that               ‘‘expenditure’’).



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                                                                          Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 59 / Wednesday, March 29, 2017 / Proposed Rules                                                  15469

                                                    established objective criteria to avoid                 The Arguments for Changing the                        unreliability of polling—both generally
                                                    the real or apparent potential for a quid               Regulation                                            and with respect to independent and
                                                    pro quo, and to ensure the integrity and                  The petition and many of the                        third-party candidates—renders the
                                                    fairness of the process.’’ Id. at 64262. In             comments supporting it essentially                    15% threshold unattainable and
                                                    discussing objective selection criteria,                argue that CPD’s 15% threshold is a                   unreasonable for independent and third-
                                                    the Commission has noted that debate                    non-objective criterion because it is                 party candidates.
                                                    staging organizations may use them to                   unreliable and/or intended to unfairly                   The crux of the petition’s factual
                                                    ‘‘control the number of candidates                      benefit major party candidates at the                 submissions consists of two reports that
                                                    participating in . . . a meaningful                     expense of independent and third-party                purport to show that CPD’s 15%
                                                    debate’’ but must not use criteria                      candidates. The Court summarized the                  threshold is designed to result in the
                                                    ‘‘designed to result in the selection of                petition’s arguments as attempting to                 exclusion of independent or third-party
                                                    certain pre-chosen participants.’’ Id. The              establish, first, that ‘‘CPD’s polling                candidates. The first report, by Dr.
                                                    Commission has further explained that                   threshold is being used subjectively to               Clifford Young, concludes that in order
                                                    while ‘‘[t]he choice of which objective                 exclude independent and third-party                   to reach a 15% threshold, a candidate
                                                    criteria to use is largely left to the                                                                        must achieve name recognition among
                                                                                                            candidates’’ and, second, that ‘‘polling
                                                    discretion of the staging organization,’’                                                                     60–80% of the population.3 The second,
                                                                                                            thresholds are particularly unreliable
                                                    the rule contains an implied                                                                                  by Douglas Schoen, estimates that the
                                                                                                            and susceptible to . . . subjective use at
                                                    reasonableness requirement. Id. Within                                                                        cost to a third-party or independent
                                                                                                            the presidential level, undermining the
                                                    the realm of reasonable criteria, the                                                                         candidate of achieving 60% name
                                                                                                            FEC’s stated goal of using ‘objective
                                                    Commission has stated that it ‘‘gives                                                                         recognition would be over $266 million,
                                                                                                            criteria to avoid the real or apparent
                                                    great latitude in establishing the criteria                                                                   including almost $120 million for paid
                                                                                                            potential for a quid pro quo, and to
                                                    for participant selection’’ to debate                                                                         media content production and
                                                                                                            ensure the integrity and fairness of the
                                                    staging organizations under 11 CFR                                                                            dissemination, which the report
                                                                                                            process.’ ’’ Level the Playing Field, 2017
                                                    110.13.2 First General Counsel’s Report                                                                       concludes is not a reasonably reachable
                                                    at n.5, MUR 5530 (Commission on                         WL 437400 at *12.
                                                                                                              In essence, the petition argues that                figure for a non-major-party candidate.4
                                                    Presidential Debates) (May 4, 2005),                                                                          Additionally, both the Young and
                                                                                                            there are biases against third-party and
                                                    http://eqs.fec.gov/eqsdocsMUR/                                                                                Schoen reports conclude that polling in
                                                                                                            independent candidates in accurate
                                                    000043F0.pdf.                                                                                                 three-way races is inherently unreliable
                                                       In the first major enforcement action                polling, and therefore that a polling
                                                                                                            threshold requirement like CPD’s                      and not, therefore, an objective measure
                                                    under this regulation almost two                                                                              of the viability of third-party and
                                                    decades ago, the Commission found that                  presents these candidates with a Catch-
                                                                                                            22 scenario:                                          independent candidates. In reaching
                                                    CPD’s use of polling data (among other                                                                        their conclusions, both the Young and
                                                    criteria) did not result in an unlawful                    [A polling threshold] effectively
                                                                                                            institutionalizes the Democratic and
                                                                                                                                                                  Schoen reports assert that third-party
                                                    corporate contribution, with five                                                                             and independent candidates are
                                                    Commissioners observing that it would                   Republican candidates as the only options
                                                                                                            with which the voters are presented. A third-         disadvantaged by the fact that they do
                                                    make ‘‘little sense’’ if ‘‘a debate sponsor                                                                   not benefit from a ‘‘party halo effect’’ by
                                                                                                            party or independent candidate who is
                                                    could not look at the latest poll results               excluded from the debates loses the                   which Democratic and Republican
                                                    even though the rest of the nation could                opportunity to take the stage against the             candidates—regardless of name
                                                    look at this as an indicator of a                       major party nominees and demonstrate that             recognition—may garner a minimum
                                                    candidate’s popularity.’’ MUR 4451/                     he or she is a better alternative; the media          vote share in polling merely for being
                                                    4473 Commission Statement of Reasons                    does not cover the candidate; and the                 associated with a major party, in
                                                    at 8 n.7 (Commission on Presidential                    candidate does not get the public exposure
                                                                                                            necessary to compete. The ‘‘determination’’
                                                                                                                                                                  addition to benefitting from increased
                                                    Debates) (Apr. 6, 1998), http://                                                                              name recognition from media coverage
                                                    www.fec.gov/disclosure_data/mur/                        that a [third-party or independent] candidate
                                                                                                            is not viable because he or she lacks a certain       of the major party primary season.5
                                                    4451.pdf#page=459. Citing this
                                                                                                            amount of support becomes a self-fulfilling           The Commission’s Assessment of the
                                                    statement, one court noted with respect                 prophecy.
                                                    to the use of polling thresholds as                                                                           Petition’s Factual Submissions
                                                    debate selection criteria that ‘‘[i]t is                Petition at 3. The petition argues that
                                                                                                            inclusion of independent and third-                   1. Submissions Regarding Whether a
                                                    difficult to understand why it would be                                                                       15% Threshold Cannot Be Attained by
                                                    unreasonable or subjective to consider                  party candidates in presidential general
                                                                                                            election debates furthers voter                       (and Therefore Excludes) Independent
                                                    the extent of a candidate’s electoral                                                                         and Third-Party Candidates
                                                    support prior to the debate to determine                education and voter turnout, which, the
                                                    whether the candidate is viable enough                  petition asserts, are policy purposes                   The Young Report’s conclusion that
                                                    to be included.’’ Buchanan v. FEC, 112                  underlying the regulation.                            third-party and independent candidates
                                                    F. Supp. 2d 58, 75 (D.D.C. 2000).                                                                             require a 60–80% name recognition to
                                                                                                            Summary of Petition Evidence in
                                                    Nonetheless, the Commission has noted                                                                         meet CPD’s 15% threshold does not
                                                                                                            Support of Changing the Regulation
                                                    that while it cannot reasonably                                                                               provide a persuasive basis for changing
                                                    ‘‘question[ ] each and every . . .                         In support of the argument that                    the candidate debate regulation. Dr.
                                                    candidate assessment criterion,’’ it can                polling thresholds have the purpose or                Young acknowledges that his report’s
                                                    evaluate ‘‘evidence that [such a]                       effect of favoring major party candidates             analysis is one-dimensional; it
                                                                                                            over third-party or independent                       correlates polling results to name
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                                                    criterion was ‘fixed’ or arranged in some
                                                    manner so as to guarantee a preordained                 candidates, the petition presents facts               recognition alone, and then it draws
                                                    result.’’ MUR 4451/4473 Commission                      and analysis regarding the name                       conclusions regarding hypothetical
                                                    Statement of Reasons at 8–9                             recognition required to poll at CPD’s                 third-party candidate performance
                                                    (Commission on Presidential Debates).                   15% threshold and the amount of                       based on that one factor. More
                                                                                                            money required to gain that level of
                                                      2 See Candidate Debates and News Stories, 61 FR       name recognition. The petition provides                 3 Petition
                                                                                                                                                                             Ex. 3 (‘‘Young Report’’).
                                                    18049 (Apr. 24, 1996) (quoting H.R. Rep. No. 93–        further factual submissions that,                       4 Petition
                                                                                                                                                                             Ex. 11 (‘‘Schoen Report’’).
                                                    1239 at 4 (1974)).                                      according to the petition, show that the                5 See Young Report at ¶¶ 21–22.




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                                                    15470                 Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 59 / Wednesday, March 29, 2017 / Proposed Rules

                                                    specifically, Dr. Young acknowledges                    stage in all three models, even if only in            does not find that this premise is
                                                    that polling results are not merely a                   part, may amplify polling errors, which               adequately established by the Young
                                                    function of name recognition—they are                   the report notes are higher earlier in the            Report, and therefore the Commission
                                                    a much more complex confluence of                       election cycle than during the later                  questions whether the Schoen Report
                                                    factors. See Young Report at ¶¶ 10,                     ‘‘election salience’’ period—from one                 possesses any meaningful evidentiary
                                                    20(d) (listing other factors, beyond name               day to several months before election                 value. But even assuming that a
                                                    recognition, affecting candidate vote                   day—during which people start paying                  candidate must reach 60–80% name
                                                    share, including ‘‘fundraising, candidate               more attention to the election. Id. at                recognition to achieve a 15% threshold
                                                    positioning, election results, and                      ¶¶ 43(g), (i). Additionally, the use of the           in vote share, the Commission finds the
                                                    idiosyncratic events’’); see also Nate                  early party primary stage as the point of             Schoen Report not to provide a reasoned
                                                    Silver, A Polling Based Forecast of the                 comparison for third-party or                         evidentiary basis for amending the rule
                                                    Republican Primary Field,                               independent candidates’ name                          at issue.
                                                    FiveThirtyEight Politics (May 11, 2011)                 recognition in September does not                        The Commission is unpersuaded by
                                                    (attached to Petition as Exhibit 20)                    address or account for differences in the             the Schoen Report primarily because the
                                                    (noting that, more than name                            size of the candidate fields at those                 report builds its conclusion through an
                                                    recognition, ‘‘laying the groundwork for                points in time. Thus, the Young Report’s              extensive series of unsupported
                                                    a run quite early on,’’ including efforts               observations regarding early primary                  suppositions and assertions. For
                                                    to ‘‘hire staff, cultivate early support,               candidates provide little or no                       example, to explain a significant portion
                                                    brush up [ ] media skills,’’ predicts later             persuasive evidence as to the effect of a             of its calculations, the report states that
                                                    vote share success). Due to the Young                   polling threshold on presidential                     ‘‘the media will not cover an
                                                    Report’s focus on this one correlative                  general election candidates.                          independent candidate until they are
                                                    factor, the report does not purport to                     In addition, the petition appears to               certainly in the debates.’’ Schoen Report
                                                    establish any causative effect between                  draw inapposite conclusions from the                  at 3. But the report provides no basis for
                                                    name recognition and vote share, and it                 Young Report’s data. Critically, neither              this assertion other than an unexplained
                                                    does not account for how external forces                the Young Report nor other evidence                   reference to the number of publications
                                                    apart from name recognition—such as                     submitted with the petition or                        ‘‘follow[ing]’’ one particular candidate
                                                    fundraising, candidate positioning,                     comments establishes that third-party or              (id. at 5), and the Commission is aware
                                                    election results, and idiosyncratic                     independent candidates do not or                      of at least three non-major-party
                                                    events—may influence vote share. For                    cannot meet 60–80% name recognition.                  candidates who did not participate in
                                                    example, the report does not take into                  In fact, at least one third-party candidate           the general election debates but received
                                                    consideration forces that might increase                was reported to achieve over 60% name                 significant media attention in 2016.6
                                                    the vote share of an otherwise                          recognition in the most recent                           In another premise that the report
                                                                                                            presidential campaign prior to the                    uses to build its later conclusions, the
                                                    unfamiliar independent candidate—
                                                                                                            general election debates. See Poll                    Schoen Report asserts that independent
                                                    such as high unfavorable ratings among
                                                                                                            Results: Third Party Candidates,                      candidates are disadvantaged because
                                                    major party candidates—or forces that
                                                                                                            YouGov (Aug. 25–26, 2016), available at               they ‘‘must resort to launching a
                                                    might decrease the vote share of an
                                                                                                            https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/                massive national media campaign’’
                                                    independent candidate who has become
                                                                                                            cumulus_uploads/document/                             while major party candidates ‘‘by
                                                    well-recognized—such as policy
                                                                                                            wc35k48hrs/tabs_HP_Third_Party_                       competing in small state primaries, can
                                                    preferences or political missteps.
                                                                                                            Candidates_20160831.pdf (showing                      build their name recognition without
                                                    Because it largely omits analysis of all
                                                                                                            Gary Johnson and Jill Stein having 63%
                                                    other factors beyond name recognition,
                                                                                                            and 59% name recognition among                           6 Searches of the Thompson Reuters Westlaw
                                                    the Commission is not persuaded that                                                                          ‘‘Newspaper’’ database for mentions in 2016 of
                                                                                                            registered voters, respectively). Thus,
                                                    the Young Report’s conclusions are a                                                                          independent and third-party 2016 presidential
                                                                                                            there is no information in the                        candidate names (‘‘Gary Johnson,’’ ‘‘Jill Stein,’’ and
                                                    sufficient basis on which to determine
                                                                                                            rulemaking record showing that 60–                    ‘‘Evan McMullin’’) show thousands of results.
                                                    that a 15% polling threshold is so                                                                            Moreover, the number of results for references to
                                                                                                            80% name recognition is a prohibitively
                                                    inherently unreachable by non-major-                                                                          these independent candidates was comparable to
                                                                                                            high bar for independent candidates. In
                                                    party candidates that the Commission                                                                          the number of results for references to several major
                                                                                                            other words, even if the Commission                   party candidates during comparable time periods.
                                                    should provide that sponsors of general                 were to assume arguendo that 60–80%                   Using as a baseline the 277 days from the lead up
                                                    election presidential debates must be                   name recognition correlates with 15%                  to the first Republican party primary debate until
                                                    prohibited as a matter of law from using                vote share, there is no information in                Donald Trump was determined to be the
                                                    it in order to fulfill the statutory                                                                          presumptive nominee (August 1, 2015, to May 4,
                                                                                                            the record demonstrating that these                   2016), and the similar 277-day period of September
                                                    prohibition on corporate contributions.                 thresholds inherently function to                     4, 2015 (before the first Democratic primary debate)
                                                       Moreover, even within the confines of                exclude third-party or independent                    to June 7, 2016 (when Hillary Clinton became the
                                                    name recognition, the Young Report is                                                                         presumptive Democratic nominee), the Commission
                                                                                                            candidates because of their party status.             looked at mentions for independent candidates
                                                    only weakly applicable to the debates at                   Instead, the petition uses Dr. Young’s             during the 277 days before the general election
                                                    issue, which are presidential general                   name recognition threshold as a                       (February 5–November, 7, 2016). Those results
                                                    election debates. The Young Report                      springboard to the primary argument of                show that Gary Johnson (with 3,001 results) was
                                                    reaches its 60–80% name recognition                                                                           comparable to Bobby Jindal and Mike Huckabee
                                                                                                            the Schoen Report: That the cost of                   (with 2,894 and 3,274 results, respectively); Jill
                                                    result through three models, all of                     achieving 15% vote share is                           Stein (with 1,744 results) was comparable to Rick
                                                    which extrapolate from data about name                  prohibitively high for independent
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                                                                                                                                                                  Perry and Martin O’Malley (with 2,278 and 2,566
                                                    recognition of major party candidates at                candidates. The Schoen Report starts                  results, respectively); and Evan McMullin (with 353
                                                    the early stages of the party primary                                                                         results) was comparable to Lincoln Chafee, Jim
                                                                                                            from the premise that 60–80% name                     Webb, and George Pataki (with 424, 521, and 937
                                                    process (i.e., before the Iowa caucuses)                recognition is necessary to gain a 15%                results, respectively). And, while searches for
                                                    because, the report explains, ‘‘party halo              vote share and proceeds to estimate the               Donald Trump’s and Hillary Clinton’s names
                                                    effects’’ may be lower during early                     amount of money that an independent                   returned significantly more results (7,451 and
                                                                                                                                                                  7,404, respectively), those results were in line with
                                                    primary polling. Young Report at ¶ 22.                  candidate would need to spend to reach                other candidates who did not achieve high vote
                                                    The decision to measure name                            60–80% name recognition. For the                      share in the party primaries, such as Jeb Bush with
                                                    recognition at this extraordinarily early               reasons stated above, the Commission                  7,102 results.



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                                                                          Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 59 / Wednesday, March 29, 2017 / Proposed Rules                                                        15471

                                                    the costs of running a national                            In addition, the Schoen Report states                   in approximately June of the election
                                                    campaign.’’ Id. In support of this                      that media costs to accomplish 60%                         year and must raise name recognition
                                                    statement, the report states that                       name recognition are higher in three-                      from nothing to 60% within the three
                                                    ‘‘Obama’s 2008 victory in the Iowa                      way races due to increased competition,                    months before CPD looks at polls in
                                                    caucuses catapulted him to national                     and the report increases its cost estimate                 September is unrelated to the realities of
                                                    prominence.’’ Id. In fact, polling expert               accordingly.7 But the 60% figure is                        presidential elections. Presidential
                                                    Nate Silver has noted that ‘‘contrary to                apparently drawn from the Young                            candidates—major party and third-party
                                                    the conventional wisdom, which holds                    Report, which, as discussed above,                         alike—generally begin campaigning a
                                                    that Barack Obama suddenly burst onto                   addresses the very earliest stages of                      full year or more before the election,
                                                    the political scene, the polling shows                  major party primaries. Like the Young                      see, e.g., Jill Stein, FEC Form 2 (July 6,
                                                    that he was already reasonably well-                    Report, the Schoen Report does not                         2015) (declaring candidacy for president
                                                    known to voters in advance of the 2008                  explain why or how this 60% figure can                     in 2016 election cycle), and they rarely
                                                    primaries, largely as a result of his                   be extrapolated from early major party                     start with zero name recognition, see,
                                                    speech at the 2004 Democratic National                  primaries to three-way general elections.                  e.g., Petition Ex. 13 (Gallup report
                                                                                                               The Schoen Report ultimately adopts                     showing 11 candidates (including
                                                    Convention. His name was recognized
                                                                                                            an estimated cost of at least $100                         Libertarian Gary Johnson) with over
                                                    by around 60 percent of primary voters
                                                                                                            million for a media buy that an                            10% name recognition in January 2011).
                                                    by late 2006, and that figure quickly                   independent candidate would require to
                                                    ramped up to 80 or 90 percent after he                                                                             The Schoen Report’s scenario—and the
                                                                                                            gain the name recognition to meet the                      conclusions that the report draws from
                                                    declared for the presidency in February,                15% threshold. Schoen Report at 6. Not
                                                    2007.’’ Nate Silver, A Brief History of                                                                            it—therefore provides no persuasive
                                                                                                            only does this figure rely upon the
                                                    Primary Polling, Part II, FiveThirtyEight                                                                          support for the petition’s assertion that
                                                                                                            faulty assumptions that the Commission
                                                    (Apr. 4, 2011), https://fivethirtyeight.                                                                           the candidate debate regulation must be
                                                                                                            has already noted, it is also unreliable
                                                    com/features/a-brief-history-of-primary-                                                                           revised.
                                                                                                            for at least four additional reasons.
                                                    polling-part-ii/. The only other basis                     First, the $100 million figure is taken                    Third, the Schoen Report bases its
                                                    that the report provides for this portion               from an estimate from ‘‘a leading                          estimate of campaign and paid media
                                                    of its conclusion is the statement that                 corporate and political media buying                       costs on the assertion that independent
                                                    Senator Rick Santorum ‘‘spent only                      firm,’’ without any underlying data and                    candidates are unable to attract news
                                                    $21,980 in [Iowa], or 73 cents per vote’’               without any explanation of the                             media coverage. See Schoen Report at 4.
                                                    in 2012. Schoen Report at 5. It is not                  circumstances under which the firm                         But the report’s assertion, based
                                                    clear how the newspaper article cited by                purportedly offered that estimate. Nor                     primarily on research published in
                                                    the report derived this figure, and                     does the report address (or even                           1999,8 seems particularly antiquated in
                                                    Schoen (despite having access to all                    acknowledge) any biases in that                            the age of digital and social media. See
                                                    relevant financial data through the                     estimate that may stem from a media                        Farhad Manjoo, I Ignored Trump News
                                                    FEC’s Web site) does not appear to have                 buying firm’s financial interest in                        for a Week. Here’s What I Learned, NY
                                                    assessed its accuracy. In fact, reports                 estimating or promoting high media buy                     Times, Feb. 22, 2017, https://
                                                    filed with the Commission for the                       costs. The Schoen Report simply                            www.nytimes.com/2017/02/22/
                                                    period ending three days before the                     provides no evidentiary basis for the                      technology/trump-news-media-
                                                    Iowa caucus show that Senator                           Commission to credit this third-person                     ignore.html (discussing news media
                                                    Santorum made disbursements of                          estimate.                                                  coverage during and since 2016
                                                    $1,906,018. Rick Santorum for                              Second, the $100 million estimate                       presidential election campaign in light
                                                    President, FEC Form 3P at 4 (Jan. 31,                   presumes that a candidate must go from                     of social media pressures). The
                                                    2012), http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/317/                 zero percent name recognition to 60%                       Commission declines to promulgate
                                                                                                            name recognition, without noting the                       rules that will govern the 2020
                                                    12950383317/12950383317.pdf. While
                                                                                                            likelihood of a candidate starting from                    presidential election and beyond on the
                                                    not all of these disbursements were
                                                                                                            zero or otherwise explaining this                          basis of opinions that are premised on
                                                    targeted to Iowa, the candidate’s total
                                                                                                            assumption. The Schoen Report                              such obsolete data.
                                                    spending in relation to the caucuses in                 suggests, by consistently comparing the
                                                    that state was far higher than $21,980.                 hypothetical independent candidate’s                          Fourth, the Schoen Report’s media
                                                    Even looking at only reported                           position with the positions of his ‘‘two’’                 cost estimates do not appear to take
                                                    disbursements to Iowa payees (and,                      (and only two) major party candidate                       account of media purchases in support
                                                    therefore, not including payments to                    competitors, that this zero percent                        of a candidate by outside groups,
                                                    media buyers and others outside of Iowa                 baseline occurs at some point after the                    including independent expenditure-
                                                    for activities targeted towards Iowa), the              major parties have established                             only political committees (‘‘IEOPCs’’).
                                                    filings shows that Santorum spent over                  presumptive nominees. See, e.g.,                           IEOPCs may create, produce, and
                                                    $112,000 in Iowa between October 1                      Schoen Report at 10–11 (discussing ‘‘the                   distribute communications in support
                                                    and December 31, 2011, for purposes                     two major party campaigns’’ with whom                      of, but independently of, a particular
                                                    including rent, payroll, lodging, direct                hypothetical independent candidate                         candidate, and in 2016 several IEOPCs
                                                    mail, advertising, communication                        needing 60% name recognition will be                       supported third-party candidate Gary
                                                    consulting, and coalition building. Id.                 competing for ad buy time); id. at 15
                                                    Thus, the Schoen Report’s use of                        (same). A hypothetical situation in                          8 Schoen Report at 4 (citing Paul Herrnson & Rob
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                                                    unexplained second-hand analysis                        which a person with zero percent name                      Faucheux, Outside Looking In: Views of Third Party
                                                    undercuts its credibility, and the facts                                                                           and Independent Candidates, Campaigns &
                                                                                                            recognition decides to run for president                   Elections (Aug. 1999)). The assertion also appears
                                                    demonstrated by the public record give                                                                             to be in tension with the statutory exclusion of the
                                                    the Commission reason to doubt the                         7 Schoen Report at 3; see also id. at 10 (asserting,    news media coverage from legal treatment as
                                                    Schoen Report’s calculations regarding                  without supporting data or sources, that costs will        campaign spending. See 52 U.S.C. 30101(9)(B)(i)
                                                                                                            likely be ‘‘significantly’’ higher ‘‘in an election year   (excluding ‘‘any news story . . . distributed
                                                    any extra benefit major party primary                   featuring three viable candidates’’ and, therefore,        through the facilities of any broadcasting station,
                                                    candidates receive from their media                     adding 5% premium to report’s earlier cost                 newspaper, magazine, or other periodical’’ from
                                                    expenditures.                                           estimates).                                                definition of ‘‘expenditure’’).



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                                                    15472                 Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 59 / Wednesday, March 29, 2017 / Proposed Rules

                                                    Johnson in just that way.9 In addition,                    For all of the foregoing reasons, the                 Money Race, Bloomberg Politics (Dec. 9,
                                                    IEOPCs may raise unlimited funds from                   Commission finds the Schoen Report                       2016), https://www.bloomberg.com/
                                                    individuals and from sources, like                      unpersuasive.                                            politics/graphics/2016-presidential-
                                                    corporations, otherwise prohibited                         Finally, the petition acknowledges                    campaign-fundraising/ (noting that
                                                    under the Federal Election Campaign                     that a number of third-party presidential                Trump’s spending to ‘‘target[ ] specific
                                                    Act, 52 U.S.C. 30101–46. Thus, the                      candidates have performed sufficiently                   groups of Clinton backers with negative
                                                    existence and rise of IEOPCs undermine                  well that they were included or would                    ads on social media to lower Democratic
                                                    the Schoen Report’s assumptions about                   have been included in debates with                       turnout . . . may have been a factor in
                                                    the amount of the average contribution                  15% thresholds. See Petition at 15–16.                   Trump’s performance in battleground
                                                    to a candidate, as well as the report’s                 Indeed, the petition notes that as many                  states’’).
                                                    extrapolations about the number of                      as six candidates would apparently have                     In sum, the Commission concludes
                                                    individual contributions needed and                     satisfied this requirement at some point                 that the petition does not present
                                                    total sum necessary to reach Dr. Young’s                during their campaigns: Roosevelt in                     credible evidence that a 15% threshold
                                                    60–80% name recognition threshold.                      1912, LaFolette in 1924, Thurmond in                     is so unobtainable by independent or
                                                    See Schoen Report at 24–25 (estimating                  1948, Wallace in 1968, Anderson in                       third-party candidates that it is per se
                                                    third-party candidate’s ‘‘hypothetical                  1980, and Perot in 1992. Id. The petition                subjective or intended to exclude them.
                                                    average donation’’ on basis of                          asks the Commission to categorically
                                                                                                                                                                     2. Submissions Regarding Whether Polls
                                                    ‘‘assumption for average donation’’ of                  disregard these examples because they
                                                                                                                                                                     are Unreliable and Systematically
                                                    ‘‘plurality’’ of Obama and Romney                       predate the Internet, and in some cases,
                                                                                                                                                                     Disfavor Independent and Third-Party
                                                    contributors under $2600 maximum).                      the television. Petition at 16.13 As
                                                                                                                                                                     Candidate
                                                       Ultimately, the unreliability of the                 discussed above, the Commission agrees
                                                    Schoen Report’s conclusions is most                     that pre-Internet candidacies provide                       The Young Report’s examination of
                                                                                                            only a relatively weak basis assessing                   polling error in three-way races with
                                                    clearly demonstrated by the fact that
                                                                                                            how easy or difficult it would be for                    independents seeks to determine,
                                                    third-party candidate Gary Johnson
                                                                                                            candidates to achieve 15% vote share in                  essentially, if the threshold is drawn in
                                                    reached 60% name recognition by
                                                                                                            a modern election. But to the extent that                the right place to identify candidates
                                                    August 31, 2016.10 In the 2016 election
                                                                                                            the availability of Internet                             that actually have a 15% vote share.
                                                    cycle through August 31, Johnson had
                                                                                                            communication has changed this                           Young Report at ¶ 60. The Young Report
                                                    spent almost $5.5 million; this amount
                                                                                                            calculus, the Commission notes that                      concludes that polls in three-way races
                                                    represents total disbursements for all
                                                                                                            advertising on the Internet can cost                     have greater errors than polls in two-
                                                    purposes, including, but not limited to,
                                                                                                            significantly less money than                            way races. Specifically, the Young
                                                    media buys.11 According to the Schoen
                                                                                                            advertising in more traditional media                    Report extrapolates from gubernatorial
                                                    Report, such a result should have been                                                                           election polls taken two months before
                                                    impossible: Johnson should not have                     that was available to those pre-Internet
                                                                                                            independent candidates. See, e.g.                        the general election (the point at which
                                                    been able to achieve 60% name                                                                                    CPD uses polls as a debate inclusion
                                                    recognition until he spent at least $266                Internet Communications, 71 FR 18589,
                                                                                                            18589 (Apr. 12, 2006) (describing                        criterion) where there is an 8% error
                                                    million—fifty times more than he                                                                                 rate in three-way races compared to a
                                                    actually did.12                                         Internet as ‘‘low-cost means of civic
                                                                                                            engagement and political advocacy’’ and                  5.5% error rate in two-way races. Id. at
                                                                                                            noting that Internet presents minimal                    ¶¶ 52–56. Adjusting for the fact that
                                                       9 See Open Secrets, Independent Expenditures,
                                                                                                            barriers to entry compared to ‘‘television               gubernatorial race polling is ‘‘more error
                                                    Gary Johnson, 2016 cycle, https://www.opensecrets.
                                                    org/pres16/outside-spending?id=N00033226 (listing       or radio broadcasts or most other forms                  prone’’ than presidential race polling,
                                                    six ‘‘Super PACs’’ or IEOPCs supporting Johnson,        of mass communication’’); Associated                     the Young Report concludes that the
                                                    two of which spent over $1 million in support) (last    Press, Here’s How Much Less than                         applicable error rate is 6.04%. Id. at ¶¶
                                                    visited Feb. 24, 2017).                                                                                          57–58. The Young Report continues to
                                                       10 See Ariel Edwards-Levy, Third-Party
                                                                                                            Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Spent on
                                                                                                            the Election, Fortune (Dec. 9, 2016),                    extrapolate the effect of this error on
                                                    Candidates are Getting a Boost in Name
                                                    Recognition, Huffington Post (Aug. 31, 2016)            http://fortune.com/2016/12/09/hillary-                   candidates, such as independent or
                                                    (noting Johnson’s name recognition); Poll Results:      clinton-donald-trump-campaign-                           third-party candidates, that poll close to
                                                    Third Party Candidates, YouGov (Aug. 25–26,             spending/ (comparing Hillary Clinton’s                   the 15% threshold; for these candidates,
                                                    2016), available at https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloud                                                                 the Young Report concludes that there
                                                    front.net/cumulus_uploads/document/wc35k48hrs/          ‘‘more traditional’’ television-heavy
                                                    tabs_HP_Third_Party_Candidates_20160831.pdf             advertising strategy in campaign’s last                  is an approximately 40% chance that a
                                                    (showing Gary Johnson and Jill Stein having 63%         weeks—$72 million on TV ads and                          third-party or independent candidate
                                                    and 59% name recognition among registered voters,       about $16 million on Internet ads—with                   who holds the support of 15% of the
                                                    respectively).                                                                                                   population would be excluded. Id. at ¶¶
                                                       11 See Gary Johnson 2016, FEC Form 3P at 3–4
                                                                                                            Donald Trump’s ‘‘nearly $39 million on
                                                    (Sept. 20, 2016), http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/391/      last-minute TV ads and another $29                       59–66.
                                                    201609209032026391/201609209032026391.pdf               million on digital’’); see also Bill Allison                The Commission is unpersuaded by
                                                    (showing receipts of $7,937,608 and disbursements       et al., Tracking the 2016 Presidential                   this analysis for two fundamental
                                                    of $5,444,704).                                                                                                  reasons. First, as the Commission noted
                                                       12 The Young and Schoen Reports do not address
                                                                                                               13 The petition also asks the Commission to           in its original notice of disposition, the
                                                    a circumstance in which a candidate, like Gary          disregard the strong polling results of third-party or
                                                    Johnson, reaches at least 60% name recognition but
                                                                                                                                                                     fact that polling data can be erroneous
                                                                                                            independent candidates, like George Wallace and
                                                    does not reach a 15% threshold. The Commission          John Anderson, who have a prior affiliation with a
                                                                                                                                                                     does not mean that a debate staging
                                                    notes, though, that this circumstance (in which                                                                  organization acts subjectively in using
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                                                                                                            major political party. Petition at 15. The
                                                    name recognition does not translate to high vote        Commission is not persuaded that disregarding            it. 80 FR at 72618 n.6. By way of
                                                    share) might be explained by the other factors          those polling results would be reasonable in the
                                                    beyond name recognition that affect vote share,
                                                                                                                                                                     analogy, consider a school district with
                                                                                                            context of assessing, as required by the court,
                                                    including ‘‘fundraising, candidate positioning,         whether the CPD’s 15% threshold under the current        a policy of canceling school if a majority
                                                    election results, and idiosyncratic events,’’           candidate debate regulation acts ‘‘subjectively to       of local television news stations predict
                                                    mentioned in the Young Report. See Young Report         exclude independent and third-party candidates,’’        at least six inches of snow for the next
                                                    at ¶¶ 10, 20(d). Moreover, the circumstance in          since the threshold would apply to all third-party
                                                    which name recognition does not translate to high       and independent candidates, regardless of prior
                                                                                                                                                                     day. That policy would be facially
                                                    vote share is not unique to third party candidates.     affiliation. Level the Playing Field, 2017 WL 437400     objective, even though such weather
                                                    See note 6, above (discussing Jeb Bush).                at *12.                                                  forecasts are known to be significantly


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                                                                           Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 59 / Wednesday, March 29, 2017 / Proposed Rules                                                     15473

                                                    inaccurate. The policy would be                           party and independent candidates,’’ and              on Election Day.’’ Commission on
                                                    subjective only if the inaccuracy in the                  therefore the CPD might ‘‘cherry pick                Presidential Debates, Comment at Ex. 2
                                                    forecast were systematically biased for                   from among the myriad polls that exist               ¶ 20 (Declaration of Frank M. Newport,
                                                    or against the condition being triggered                  in order to engineer a specific                      Editor-in-Chief, Gallup Organization)
                                                    (e.g., if the local weather forecasters                   outcome.’’ Petition at 17–18. But the                (Dec. 15, 2014), http://sers.fec.gov/
                                                    regularly used high-end estimates of                      petition presents no evidence that such              fosers/showpdf.htm?docid=310982. As
                                                    snow to drive viewer interest). But this                  manipulation has ever occurred, and the              the Newport Declaration notes, ‘‘there is
                                                    demonstrates the second reason the                        Commission is unwilling to predicate a               no doubt that properly conducted polls
                                                    Commission is unpersuaded by the                          rule change on unsupported speculation               remain the best measure of public
                                                    petition’s submissions regarding polling                  of wrongdoing. A debate sponsor who                  support for a candidate . . . at the time
                                                    unreliability: The petition provides no                   took actions to manipulate the ‘‘pre-                the polls are conducted.’’ Id. at Ex. 2 ¶
                                                    evidence that the polling error is biased                 established’’ and ‘‘objective’’ selection            21.
                                                    in a manner specific to party affiliation,                criteria so as to ‘‘select[ ] certain pre-           3. Submissions Regarding the
                                                    that is, that polling is biased against                   chosen participants’’ by cherry-picking              Desirability of Expanding Debate
                                                    third-party or independent candidates.                    polls that excluded other candidates                 Participation
                                                    Indeed, the petition explicitly                           would violate the existing rule.
                                                    acknowledges that ‘‘it [is] wholly                        Corporate and Labor Organization                        The petition and most of the
                                                    unclear whether the polling over- or                      Activity; Express Advocacy and                       commenters who support it rely
                                                    underestimate[s] the potential of the                     Coordination with Candidates, 60 FR at               primarily on policy arguments that
                                                    third party candidate.’’ Petition at 19                   64262.                                               polling thresholds are inconsistent with
                                                    (quoting Schoen Report at 28). Thus, the                                                                       the purposes of the existing regulations
                                                                                                                 The petition further argues that                  and that those purposes would be better
                                                    Commission concludes that the petition                    lowering the polling threshold is
                                                    does not demonstrate that statistical                                                                          served by, in essence, including more
                                                                                                              insufficient to solve polling error                  voices on the debate stage.15 The
                                                    errors in polling data render the use of                  problems. As an initial matter, the
                                                    such data subjective or show that it is                                                                        Commission explained in its original
                                                                                                              Commission notes that the Young                      Notice of Disposition why it was not
                                                    intended to exclude third-party                           Report does not conclude that any and
                                                    candidates.14                                                                                                  persuaded by the petition’s ‘‘arguments
                                                                                                              all polling thresholds are unreliable. On            in favor of debate selection criteria that
                                                       The petition does imply that third-
                                                                                                              this point, in addition to the Young and
                                                    party and independent candidates are at
                                                    a disadvantage because ‘‘there is no                      Schoen Reports discussed above,                         15 A substantial majority of the comments that the

                                                    requirement that pollsters test third-                    Petitioner cites an article from Nate                Commission received on the petition were cursory
                                                                                                              Silver on Republican primaries for the               and consisted of a single sentence expressing
                                                                                                                                                                   support for the petition. See, e.g., Comment by
                                                       14 Because this data, even as cited by the petition,   conclusion that ‘‘a simple poll does not             Amanda Powell, REG 2014–06 Amendment of 11
                                                    does not show that the regulation should be               capture a candidate’s potential.’’                   CFR 110.13(c) (Dec. 15, 2014) (‘‘I support the
                                                    amended, the Commission need not further assess           Petition at 17 (citing Nate Silver, A                petition.’’), http://sers.fec.gov/fosers/
                                                    the data’s validity. Nonetheless, the Commission          Polling Based Forecast of the                        showpdf.htm?docid=310989. Additionally, the
                                                    notes that there are significant structural differences                                                        League of Women Voters ‘‘does not support
                                                    between the state polls cited by Dr. Young and            Republican Primary Field,                            amending the FEC regulation to preclude sponsors
                                                    national presidential polls. See, e.g., Young Report      FiveThirtyEight Politics (May 11, 2011)              of general election presidential and vice
                                                    at ¶¶ 41 (explaining differences between reputable        (attached to Petition as Exhibit 20)). The           presidential debates from requiring that a candidate
                                                    national and state or local polls, with respect to        cited article, though, concludes what                meet a polling threshold in order to be included in
                                                    both number of interviews and margins of error), 57                                                            the debate,’’ but did generally support opening a
                                                    (showing significant differences between state and        appears to be the opposite of the point              rulemaking, though without supporting or
                                                    federal polling at different points in time). Although    for which it is cited; it starts by                  proposing any specific proposal. Comment by
                                                    Dr. Young adjusts the state-poll results before           explaining that it will prove the author’s           League of Women Voters, REG 2014–06
                                                    applying them to his national analysis, (see id. ¶                                                             Amendment of 11 CFR 110.13(c) (Dec. 15, 2014),
                                                    58), the manner in which the adjustment is
                                                                                                              contention that ‘‘polls have enough                  http://sers.fec.gov/fosers/
                                                    described leaves unexplained whether the                  predictive power to be a worthwhile                  showpdf.htm?docid=310985. The comment did not,
                                                    adjustment accounts for all of the relevant               starting point.’’ Petition, Ex. 20. In fact,         however, present any substantial justification for
                                                    differences between state and national polls.             that article was part four of a four part            doing so. Moreover, such an open-ended inquiry
                                                       The Petitioner also submitted in response to the                                                            was not the focus of the petition for rulemaking.
                                                                                                              series. The second sentence of part one
                                                    Notice of Availability a comment with additional                                                                  Another commenter, FairVote, indicated that it
                                                    data concerning ‘‘grossly inaccurate’’ polling in         of that series explained that the series             ‘‘do[es] not oppose the use of polling as a debate
                                                    2014 midterm Senate and gubernatorial elections.          was intended to show that ‘‘national                 selection criterion so long as candidates have an
                                                    Level the Playing Field, Comment at 1 (Nov. 26,           polls of primary voters—even [nine                   alternative means of qualifying for inclusion.’’ See
                                                    2014), http://sers.fec.gov/fosers/                                                                             Comment by FairVote, REG 2014–06 Amendment of
                                                    showpdf.htm?docid=310980. However, attachments
                                                                                                              months] out from the Iowa caucuses and               11 CFR 110.13(c) (Dec. 15, 2014), http://
                                                    to the comment note that ‘‘midterm polling biases         New Hampshire primary—do have a                      sers.fec.gov/fosers/showpdf.htm?docid=310974.
                                                    in Senate elections are far worse than in                 reasonable amount of predictive power                That commenter emphasized the Commission’s
                                                    presidential elections.’’ Id. at Exhibit A. And a chart   in informing us as to the identity of the            recognition of the educational purpose of candidate
                                                    created by the Petitioner for the comment shows                                                                debates and advocated that including additional
                                                    that, of ten races with purportedly high polling
                                                                                                              eventual nominee.’’ Nate Silver, A Brief             candidates in debates would ‘‘broaden the
                                                    errors in races without a ‘‘viable third-party or         History of Primary Polling, Part I,                  substantive discussion within the debates.’’ Id. As
                                                    independent candidate,’’ the two races included in        FiveThirtyEight (Mar. 31, 2011), https://            explained supra, however, the main purpose of the
                                                    the chart with the lowest polling error are, in fact,     fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-brief-                regulation at issue is to clarify when money spent
                                                    the only two races that include a third-party or                                                               on debate sponsorship is exempt from the FECA’s
                                                    independent candidate. Compare Level the Playing          history-of-primary-polling-part-i/.                  definition of ‘‘contribution.’’ The Commission’s
                                                                                                              Moreover, polls like those used in
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                                                    Field, Comment at 3 (showing Georgia and North                                                                 recognition of the educational value of debates does
                                                    Carolina Senate races with the lowest final polling       September by CPD are not ‘‘inaccurate’’              not alter its view that the determination of which
                                                    errors of those entries in chart) to Level the Playing    or ‘‘unreliable’’ simply because their               candidates participate in a given debate should
                                                    Field, Comment at Exhibit C (showing Georgia and                                                               generally be left to the organizations sponsoring
                                                    North Carolina Senate as only races included in           assessments of vote share do not match               such events. See supra. In addition, while the
                                                    chart that involved three-way race polling). For all      the final vote share on Election Day;                Commenter supported Petitioner’s proposed
                                                    of these reasons, the Commission is not persuaded         such polls are ‘‘designed to measure the             alternative to select a third debate participant based
                                                    that the Petitioner’s submissions regarding state and                                                          upon the number of signatures gathered to obtain
                                                    Senate polls indicate any systematic, anti-third-
                                                                                                              true level of public support at the time             ballot access, the existing rule already permits this
                                                    party flaw in the polls at issue here, which are          the poll is administered,’’ not ‘‘to                 alternative and thus amending the rule is not
                                                    presidential general election polls.                      measure the true level of public support             required to allow for that approach. See id.



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                                                    15474                 Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 59 / Wednesday, March 29, 2017 / Proposed Rules

                                                    would include more candidates in                          Dated: March 23, 2017.                              Examining the AD Docket
                                                    general election presidential and vice                  Steven T. Walther,                                       You may examine the AD docket on
                                                    presidential debates.’’ 80 FR at 72617.                 Chairman, Federal Election Commission.                the Internet at http://
                                                    As the Commission explained, ‘‘The                      [FR Doc. 2017–06150 Filed 3–28–17; 8:45 am]           www.regulations.gov by searching for
                                                    rule at section 110.13(c) . . . is not                  BILLING CODE 6715–01–P                                and locating Docket No. FAA–2011–
                                                    intended to maximize the number of                                                                            0961; or in person at the Docket
                                                    debate participants; it is intended to                                                                        Management Facility between 9 a.m.
                                                    ensure that staging organizations do not                                                                      and 5 p.m., Monday through Friday,
                                                    select participants in such a way that                  DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION                          except Federal holidays. The AD docket
                                                    the costs of a debate constitute corporate              Federal Aviation Administration                       contains this proposed AD, the
                                                    contributions to the candidates taking                                                                        regulatory evaluation, any comments
                                                    part.’’ Id. That is the only basis on                   14 CFR Part 39                                        received, and other information. The
                                                    which the Commission is authorized to                                                                         street address for the Docket Office
                                                    regulate in this area. The Commission                   [Docket No. FAA–2011–0961; Directorate                (phone: 800–647–5527) is in the
                                                    has no independent statutory basis for                  Identifier 2011–NE–22–AD]                             ADDRESSES section. Comments will be
                                                    regulating the number of candidates                                                                           available in the AD docket shortly after
                                                    who participate in debates, and the                     RIN 2120–AA64                                         receipt.
                                                    merits or drawbacks of increasing such                                                                        FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: John
                                                                                                            Airworthiness Directives; Rolls-Royce                 Tallarovic, Aerospace Engineer, Chicago
                                                    participation—except to the limited
                                                                                                            Corporation Turboshaft Engines                        Aircraft Certification Office, FAA, 2300
                                                    extent that they implicate federal
                                                    campaign finance law — are policy                       AGENCY: Federal Aviation                              E. Devon Ave., Des Plaines, IL 60018;
                                                    questions outside the Commission’s                      Administration (FAA), DOT.                            phone: 847–294–8180; fax: 847–294–
                                                    jurisdiction.                                                                                                 7834; email: john.m.tallarovic@faa.gov.
                                                                                                            ACTION: Notice of proposed rulemaking
                                                                                                                                                                  SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
                                                    Conclusion                                              (NPRM).
                                                                                                                                                                  Comments Invited
                                                       The evidence presented to the                        SUMMARY:    We propose to supersede
                                                                                                            Airworthiness Directive (AD) 2015–02–                    We invite you to send any written
                                                    Commission in the petition and                                                                                relevant data, views, or arguments about
                                                                                                            22, which applies to certain Rolls-Royce
                                                    comments on the impracticability of                                                                           this NPRM. Send your comments to an
                                                                                                            Corporation (RRC) model 250 turboprop
                                                    independent candidates reaching the                                                                           address listed under the ADDRESSES
                                                                                                            and turboshaft engines. AD 2015–02–22
                                                    15% threshold and on the unreliability                                                                        section. Include ‘‘Docket No. FAA–
                                                                                                            currently requires repetitive visual
                                                    of polling do not lead the Commission                   inspections and fluorescent-penetrant                 2011–0961; Directorate Identifier 2011–
                                                    to conclude that the CPD’s use of such                  inspection (FPIs) on certain 3rd-stage                NE–22–AD’’ at the beginning of your
                                                    a threshold for selecting debate                        and 4th-stage turbine wheels for cracks               comments. We specifically invite
                                                    participants is per se subjective, so as to             in the turbine wheel blades. Since we                 comments on the overall regulatory,
                                                    require initiating a rulemaking to amend                issued AD 2015–02–22, we determined                   economic, environmental, and energy
                                                    11 CFR 110.13(c). While the reports by                  that it is necessary to remove the 4th-               aspects of this NPRM. We will consider
                                                    Dr. Young and Mr. Schoen, in addition                   stage wheels at the next inspection. We               all comments received by the closing
                                                    to the historical polling and campaign                  are also proposing to revise the                      date and may amend this NPRM
                                                    finance data presented with the petition,               applicability to remove all RRC                       because of those comments.
                                                    demonstrate certain challenges that                     turboprop engines and add additional                     We will post all comments we
                                                    independent candidates may face when                    turboshaft engines. This proposed AD                  receive, without change, to http://
                                                    seeking the presidency, these                           would require repetitive visual                       www.regulations.gov, including any
                                                                                                            inspections and FPIs of 3rd-stage                     personal information you provide. We
                                                    submissions do not demonstrate either
                                                                                                            turbine wheels while removing from                    will also post a report summarizing each
                                                    that the threshold is so high that only
                                                                                                            service 4th-stage turbine wheels. We are              substantive verbal contact we receive
                                                    Democratic and Republican nominees
                                                                                                            proposing this AD to correct the unsafe               about this NPRM.
                                                    could reasonably achieve it, or that the
                                                    threshold is intended to result in the                  condition on these products.                          Discussion
                                                    selection of those nominees to                          DATES: We must receive comments on                      On January 20, 2015, we issued AD
                                                    participate in the debates.                             this proposed AD by May 15, 2017.                     2015–02–22, Amendment 39–18090 (80
                                                       For all of the above reasons, in                     ADDRESSES: You may send comments,                     FR 5452, February 2, 2015), (‘‘AD 2015–
                                                    addition to the reasons discussed in the                using the procedures found in 14 CFR                  02–22’’), for certain RRC 250–B17,
                                                    Notice of Disposition published in 2015,                11.43 and 11.45, by any of the following              –B17B, –B17C, –B17D, –B17E, –B17F,
                                                    see Candidate Debates, 80 FR 72616,                     methods:                                              –B17F/1, –B17F/2, turboprop engines;
                                                    and because the Commission has                             • Federal eRulemaking Portal: Go to                and 250–C20, –C20B, –C20F, –C20J,
                                                    determined that further pursuit of a                    http://www.regulations.gov. Follow the                –C20R, –C20R/1, –C20R/2, –C20R/4,
                                                    rulemaking would not be a prudent use                   instructions for submitting comments.                 –C20S, and –C20W turboshaft engines.
                                                    of available Commission resources, see                     • Fax: 202–493–2251.                               Note that, for the purposes of this
                                                                                                               • Mail: U.S. Department of                         proposed AD, we now consider the RRC
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                                                    11 CFR 200.5(e), the Commission
                                                                                                            Transportation, Docket Operations, M–                 250–C20S engine a turboprop engine.
                                                    declines to commence a rulemaking that
                                                                                                            30, West Building Ground Floor, Room                  RRC engine type certificate data sheet
                                                    would amend the criteria for staging
                                                                                                            W12–140, 1200 New Jersey Avenue SE.,                  No. E4CE, Revision 42, dated June 29,
                                                    candidate debates in 11 CFR 110.13(c)
                                                                                                            Washington, DC 20590.                                 2010, classifies it as a turboshaft engine,
                                                    to prohibit the use of a polling threshold                 • Hand Delivery: Deliver to Mail                   but then clarifies in Note 11 that it
                                                    to determine participation in                           address above between 9 a.m. and 5                    functions as a turboprop engine.
                                                    presidential general election debates.                  p.m., Monday through Friday, except                     AD 2015–02–22 requires repetitive
                                                       On behalf of the Commission,                         Federal holidays.                                     visual inspections and FPIs on certain


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Document Created: 2017-03-29 01:14:42
Document Modified: 2017-03-29 01:14:42
CategoryRegulatory Information
CollectionFederal Register
sudoc ClassAE 2.7:
GS 4.107:
AE 2.106:
PublisherOffice of the Federal Register, National Archives and Records Administration
SectionProposed Rules
ActionSupplemental Notice of Disposition of Petition for Rulemaking.
DatesMarch 29, 2017.
ContactMr. Robert M. Knop, Assistant General Counsel, or Ms. Jessica Selinkoff, Attorney, 999 E Street NW., Washington, DC 20463, (202) 694-1650 or (800) 424-9530.
FR Citation82 FR 15468 

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