82_FR_59768 82 FR 59528 - Stress Testing Policy Statement

82 FR 59528 - Stress Testing Policy Statement

FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

Federal Register Volume 82, Issue 240 (December 15, 2017)

Page Range59528-59533
FR Document2017-26857

The Board is inviting comment on a proposed policy statement on the approach to supervisory stress testing conducted under the Board's Regulation YY pursuant to the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank Act) and the Board's capital plan rule.

Federal Register, Volume 82 Issue 240 (Friday, December 15, 2017)
[Federal Register Volume 82, Number 240 (Friday, December 15, 2017)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 59528-59533]
From the Federal Register Online  [www.thefederalregister.org]
[FR Doc No: 2017-26857]


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Proposed Rules
                                                Federal Register
________________________________________________________________________

This section of the FEDERAL REGISTER contains notices to the public of 
the proposed issuance of rules and regulations. The purpose of these 
notices is to give interested persons an opportunity to participate in 
the rule making prior to the adoption of the final rules.

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Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 240 / Friday, December 15, 2017 / 
Proposed Rules

[[Page 59528]]



FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

12 CFR Part 252

[Regulation YY; Docket No. OP-1587]


Stress Testing Policy Statement

AGENCY: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Board).

ACTION: Proposed rule; policy statement with request for public 
comment.

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SUMMARY: The Board is inviting comment on a proposed policy statement 
on the approach to supervisory stress testing conducted under the 
Board's Regulation YY pursuant to the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and 
Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank Act) and the Board's capital plan 
rule.

DATES: Comments must be received by January 22, 2018.

ADDRESSES: You may submit comments, identified by Docket No. OP-1587 by 
any of the following methods:
     Agency website: http://www.federalreserve.gov. Follow the 
instructions for submitting comments at http://www.federalreserve.gov/generalinfo/foia/ProposedRegs.aspx.
     Federal eRulemaking Portal: http://www.regulations.gov. 
Follow the instructions for submitting comments.
     Email: [email protected]. Include the 
docket number and RIN number in the subject line of the message.
     Fax: (202) 452-2819 or (202) 452-3102.
     Mail: Ann Misback, Secretary, Board of Governors of the 
Federal Reserve System, 20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW, 
Washington, DC 20551.
    All public comments will be made available on the Board's website 
at http://www.federalreserve.gov/generalinfo/foia/ProposedRegs.aspx as 
submitted, unless modified for technical reasons. Accordingly, your 
comments will not be edited to remove any identifying or contact 
information. Public comments may also be viewed electronically or in 
paper form in Room 3515, 1801 K St. NW (between 18th and 19th Streets 
NW), Washington, DC 20006 between 9:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. on weekdays. 
For security reasons, the Board requires that visitors make an 
appointment to inspect comments. You may do so by calling (202) 452-
3684. Upon arrival, visitors will be required to present valid 
government-issued photo identification and to submit to security 
screening in order to inspect and photocopy comments.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Lisa Ryu, Associate Director, (202) 
263-4833, Kathleen Johnson, Assistant Director, (202) 452-3644, Joseph 
Cox, Supervisory Financial Analyst, (202) 452-3216, Hillel Kipnis, 
Senior Financial Analyst, (202) 452-2924, Aurite Werman, Financial 
Analyst, (202) 263-4802, Division of Supervision and Regulation; 
Benjamin W. McDonough, Assistant General Counsel, (202) 452-2036, or 
Julie Anthony, Counsel, (202) 475-6682, Legal Division, Board of 
Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 20th Street and Constitution 
Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20551. Users of Telecommunication Device for 
Deaf (TDD) only, call (202) 263-4869.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: 

I. Overview

    The proposed policy statement (Policy Statement) outlines the key 
principles and policies governing the Board's approach to the 
development, implementation, and validation of models used in the 
supervisory stress test. The supervisory stress test models are used to 
produce estimates of post-stress capital ratios for covered 
companies,\1\ pursuant to the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and 
Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank Act) and the Board's stress test 
rules.\2\ This annual exercise is referred to as the Dodd-Frank Act 
Stress Test (DFAST). The supervisory models are also used in the 
Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR), pursuant to the 
Board's capital plan rule.\3\ The Board is proposing the Policy 
Statement to increase transparency around the development, 
implementation, and validation of these models by the Federal Reserve. 
Accordingly, the Policy Statement would not apply to models used by 
covered companies in the company-run stress tests mandated by the Dodd-
Frank Act and the Board's stress test rules.\4\
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    \1\ Covered companies are defined as bank holding companies 
(BHCs) and U.S. intermediate holding companies of foreign banking 
organizations (IHCs) with total consolidated assets of $50 billion 
or more, and any nonbank financial company that the Financial 
Stability Oversight Committee has determined shall be supervised by 
the Board. See 12 U.S.C. 5365.
    \2\ Public Law 111-203, 124 Stat. 1376 (2010); 12 CFR part 252, 
subpart E.
    \3\ 12 CFR 225.8.
    \4\ See 12 U.S.C. 5365(i); 12 CFR part 252, subparts B and F.
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II. Background

    Supervisory stress testing is a tool that allows the Board to 
assess whether the largest and most complex financial firms are 
sufficiently capitalized to absorb losses in stressful economic 
conditions while continuing to meet obligations to creditors and other 
counterparties and to lend to households and businesses. The 2007-2009 
financial crisis showed that many large bank holding companies (BHCs) 
did not hold capital commensurate with their risk profiles and were 
insufficiently capitalized to withstand unanticipated losses in severe 
economic stress and remain a going concern. Post-crisis reforms to 
regulation and supervision have improved the quality and quantity of 
capital in the financial system. These improvements have strengthened 
financial institutions and have reduced the likelihood and severity of 
future financial crises, which can cause severe and lasting damage to 
the economy.
    The Board's approach to supervisory stress testing has evolved 
since the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (SCAP) in 2009, which 
was the first evaluation of BHCs' capital levels on a forward-looking 
basis under stress. The lessons from SCAP encouraged the creation, 
pursuant to the Dodd-Frank Act, of DFAST,\5\ a forward-looking 
quantitative evaluation of the impact of stressful economic and 
financial market conditions on covered companies' capital. CCAR is a 
related supervisory program that was developed pursuant to the Board's 
capital plan rule and focuses on forward-looking capital planning and 
the use of stress testing to assess firms' capital adequacy. The 
quantitative assessment in CCAR uses the same

[[Page 59529]]

supervisory stress test as does DFAST, and includes firms' planned 
capital distributions, including any dividend payments or common stock 
repurchases.\6\ By assessing the capital adequacy of a covered company 
under severe projected economic and financial stress, the supervisory 
stress test complements minimum regulatory capital ratios, which 
reflect the covered company's current condition.
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    \5\ 77 FR 62377 (October 12, 2012) (stress test rules). See 12 
CFR part 252, subparts E and F.
    \6\ 12 CFR 225.8. CCAR also includes a qualitative assessment of 
capital planning practices at the largest and most complex firms, 
which is not the subject of this proposed Policy Statement.
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    The proposed Policy Statement describes the principles, policies, 
and procedures that guide the development, implementation, and 
validation of the Federal Reserve's supervisory stress test models, and 
would complement the Board's policy statement on scenario design.\7\
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    \7\ See 12 CFR part 252, appendix A, ``Policy Statement on the 
Scenario Design Framework for Stress Testing.''
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    The Federal Reserve maintains the same standards for model 
development and implementation of supervisory models as the Federal 
Reserve has established for covered companies. In addition to 
maintaining those standards, the Federal Reserve adheres to specific 
principles for model development and implementation. These principles, 
which apply broadly across the full set of supervisory models, have 
guided the formulation of the Federal Reserve's supervisory modeling 
approach and continue to guide changes to supervisory models.
    Models used in the supervisory stress test are also subject to 
ongoing review and validation by an independent unit within the Federal 
Reserve. In addition to addressing principles and policies of model 
development, implementation, and use, the Policy Statement describes 
principles of model validation, which is central to the credibility of 
supervisory models and to the credibility of the stress test exercise. 
The proposed Policy Statement is organized as follows. Section 1 
describes the principles that guide the design of the supervisory 
stress test and the Federal Reserve's approach to supervisory modeling. 
Section 2 describes the governing policies and implementation of the 
supervisory stress test. Section 3 establishes the principles and 
policies for the validation of models used in the supervisory stress 
test. The Board may determine that modifications to the Policy 
Statement would be appropriate if the principles and policies that 
guide decisions in the supervisory stress test are revised materially. 
The Board is inviting public comment on all aspects of the proposed 
Policy Statement.

III. Administrative Law Matters

A. Use of Plain Language

    Section 722 of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (Pub. L. 106-102, 113 
Stat. 1338, 1471, 12 U.S.C. 4809) requires the Federal banking agencies 
to use plain language in all proposed and final rules published after 
January 1, 2000. The Board has sought to present the proposed rule in a 
simple and straightforward manner, and invites comment on the use of 
plain language.

B. Paperwork Reduction Act Analysis

    In accordance with the requirements of the Paperwork Reduction Act 
of 1995 (44 U.S.C. 3506), the Board has reviewed the proposed policy 
statement to assess any information collections. There are no 
collections of information as defined by the Paperwork Reduction Act in 
the proposal.

C. Regulatory Flexibility Act Analysis

    In accordance with section 3(a) of the Regulatory Flexibility Act 
(RFA), the Board is publishing an initial regulatory flexibility 
analysis of the proposed policy statement. The RFA, 5 U.S.C. 601 et 
seq., requires each federal agency to prepare an initial regulatory 
flexibility analysis in connection with the promulgation of a proposed 
rule, or certify that the proposed rule will not have a significant 
economic impact on a substantial number of small entities.\8\ The RFA 
requires an agency either to provide an initial regulatory flexibility 
analysis with a proposed rule for which a general notice of proposed 
rulemaking is required or to certify that the proposed rule will not 
have a significant economic impact on a substantial number of small 
entities. Based on its analysis and for the reasons stated below, the 
Board believes that the proposed policy statement will not have a 
significant economic impact on a substantial number of small entities.
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    \8\ See 5 U.S.C. 603, 604, and 605.
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    Under regulations issued by the Small Business Administration 
(SBA), a ``small entity'' includes those firms within the ``Finance and 
Insurance'' sector with asset sizes that vary from $7 million or less 
in assets to $175 million or less in assets.\9\ The Board believes that 
the Finance and Insurance sector constitutes a reasonable universe of 
firms for these purposes because such firms generally engage in actives 
that are financial in nature. Consequently, bank holding companies or 
nonbank financial companies with assets sizes of $175 million or less 
are small entities for purposes of the RFA.
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    \9\ 13 CFR 121.201.
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    As discussed in the SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION, the proposed policy 
statement generally would affect the stress test framework used in 
regulations that apply to bank holding companies with $50 billion or 
more in total consolidated assets and nonbank financial companies that 
the Council has determined under section 113 of the Dodd-Frank Act must 
be supervised by the Board and for which such determination is in 
effect. Companies that are affected by the proposed policy statement 
therefore substantially exceed the $175 million asset threshold at 
which a banking entity is considered a ``small entity'' under SBA 
regulations.\10\ The proposed policy statement would affect a nonbank 
financial company designated by the Council under section 113 of the 
Dodd-Frank Act regardless of such a company's asset size. Although the 
asset size of nonbank financial companies may not be the determinative 
factor of whether such companies may pose systemic risks and would be 
designated by the Council for supervision by the Board, it is an 
important consideration.\11\ It is therefore unlikely that a financial 
firm that is at or below the $175 million asset threshold would be 
designated by the Council under section 113 of the Dodd-Frank Act 
because material financial distress at such firms, or the nature, 
scope, size, scale, concentration, interconnectedness, or mix of it 
activities, are not likely to pose a threat to the financial stability 
of the United States.
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    \10\ The Dodd-Frank Act provides that the Board may, on the 
recommendation of the Council, increase the $50 billion asset 
threshold for the application of certain of the enhanced standards. 
See 12 U.S.C. 5365(a)(2)(B). However, neither the Board nor the 
Council has the authority to lower such threshold.
    \11\ See 76 FR 4555 (January 26, 2011).
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    As noted above, because the proposed policy statement is not likely 
to apply to any company with assets of $175 million or less, if adopted 
in final form, it is not expected to affect any small entity for 
purposes of the RFA. The Board does not believe that the proposed 
policy statement duplicates, overlaps, or conflicts with any other 
Federal rules. In light of the foregoing, the Board does not believe 
that the proposed policy statement, if adopted in final form, would 
have a significant economic impact on a substantial number of small 
entities supervised. Nonetheless, the Board seeks comment on whether 
the proposed policy statement would impose undue burdens on, or have 
unintended consequences

[[Page 59530]]

for, small organizations, and whether there are ways such potential 
burdens or consequences could be minimized in a manner consistent its 
purpose.

List of Subjects in 12 CFR Part 252

    Administrative practice and procedure, Banks, Banking, Federal 
Reserve System, Holding companies, Nonbank financial companies 
supervised by the Board, Reporting and recordkeeping requirements, 
Securities, Stress testing.

Authority and Issuance

    For the reasons stated in the Supplementary Information, the Board 
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System proposes to amend 12 CFR 
part 252 as follows:

PART 252--ENHANCED PRUDENTIAL STANDARDS (Regulation YY)

0
1. The authority citation for part 252 continues to read as follows:

    Authority: 12 U.S.C. 321-338a, 1467a(g), 1818, 1831p-1, 1844(b), 
1844(c), 5361, 5365, 5366.

0
2. Add appendix B to part 252 to read as follows:

Appendix B to Part 252--Stress Testing Policy Statement

    This Policy Statement describes the principles, policies, and 
procedures that guide the development, implementation, and 
validation of models used in the Federal Reserve's supervisory 
stress test.

1. Principles of Supervisory Stress Testing

    The system of models used in the supervisory stress test is 
designed to result in projections that are (i) from an independent 
supervisory perspective; (ii) forward-looking; (iii) consistent and 
comparable across covered companies; (iv) generated from simple 
approaches, where appropriate; (v) robust and stable; (vi) 
conservative; and (vii) able to capture the impact of economic 
stress. These principles are further explained below.

1.1. Independence

    In the supervisory stress test, the Federal Reserve uses models 
that are developed internally and independently (i.e., separately 
from models used by covered companies). The supervisory models rely 
on detailed portfolio data provided by covered companies, but do not 
rely on models or estimates provided by covered companies to the 
greatest extent possible.
    The Federal Reserve's stress testing framework is unique among 
regulators in its generation of estimates of covered companies' 
stressed losses and revenues that are not determined in consultation 
with firms or influenced by firm-provided estimates. Doing so 
enables the Federal Reserve to provide the public and the covered 
companies with credible, independent assessments of each firm's 
capital adequacy under stress and helps instill public confidence in 
the banking system.
    The independence of the supervisory stress test allows stress 
test projections to adhere to the other key principles described in 
the Policy Statement. The use of independent models allows for 
consistent treatment across firms. Losses and revenues under stress 
are estimated using the same modeling assumptions for all covered 
companies, enabling comparisons across supervisory stress test 
results. Differences in covered companies' results reflect 
differences in firm-specific risks and input data instead of 
differences in modeling assumptions. The use of independent models 
also ensures that stress test results are produced by stress-focused 
models, designed to project the performance of covered companies in 
adverse economic conditions.
    In instances in which it is not possible or appropriate to 
create a supervisory model for use in the stress test, including 
when supervisory data are insufficient to support a modeled estimate 
of losses or revenues, the Federal Reserve may use firm-provided 
estimates or third-party models or data. For example, in order to 
project trading and counterparty losses, sensitivities to risk 
factors and other information generated by covered companies' 
internal models are used. In the cases where firm-provided or third-
party model estimates are used, the Federal Reserve monitors the 
quality and performance of the estimates through targeted 
examination, additional data collection, or benchmarking. The Board 
releases a list of the providers of third-party models or data used 
in the stress test exercise in the annual disclosure of quantitative 
results.
    Question number 1: The modeling framework of the Federal 
Reserve's supervisory stress test seeks to promote consistency and 
comparability in evaluating the impact of severe economic stress 
upon covered companies by generating independent estimates of 
losses, revenues, and capital. Are there additional advantages or 
disadvantages to this independent framework, relative to a framework 
that relies on models or estimates provided by covered companies?

1.2. Forward-Looking

    The Federal Reserve has designed the supervisory stress test to 
be forward-looking. Supervisory models are tools for producing 
projections of potential losses and revenue effects based on each 
covered company's portfolio and circumstances.
    While supervisory models are specified using historical data, 
they should generally avoid relying solely on extrapolation of past 
trends in order to make projections, and instead should be able to 
incorporate events or outcomes that have not occurred. As described 
in Section 2.4, the Federal Reserve implements several supervisory 
modeling policies to limit reliance on past outcomes in its 
projections of losses and revenues. The incorporation of the 
macroeconomic scenario and global market shock component also 
introduces elements outside the realm of historical experience into 
the supervisory stress test.

1.3. Consistency and Comparability

    The Federal Reserve uses the same set of models and assumptions 
to produce loss projections for all covered companies participating 
in the supervisory stress test. A standard set of scenarios, 
assumptions, and models promotes equitable treatment of firms 
participating in the supervisory stress test and comparability of 
results, supporting cross-firm analysis and providing valuable 
information to supervisors and to the public. Adhering to a 
consistent modeling approach across covered companies means that 
differences in projected results are due to differences in input 
data, such as instrument type or portfolio risk characteristics, 
rather than differences in firm-specific assumptions made by the 
Federal Reserve.

1.4. Simplicity

    The Federal Reserve uses simple approaches in supervisory 
modeling, where possible. Given a range of modeling approaches that 
are equally conceptually sound, the Federal Reserve will select the 
least complex modeling approach. In assessing simplicity, the 
Federal Reserve favors those modeling approaches that allow for a 
more straightforward interpretation of the drivers of model results 
and that minimize operational challenges for model implementation.

1.5. Robustness and Stability

    The Federal Reserve maintains supervisory models that aim to be 
robust and stable, such that changes in model projections over time 
reflect underlying risk factors, scenarios, and model enhancements, 
rather than transitory factors. The estimates of post-stress capital 
produced by the supervisory stress test provide information 
regarding a covered company's capital adequacy to market 
participants, covered companies, and the public. Adherence to this 
principle helps to ensure that changes in these model projections 
over time are not driven by temporary variations in model 
performance or inputs. Supervisory models are recalibrated with 
newly available input data each year. These data affect supervisory 
model projections, particularly in times of evolving risks. However, 
these changes generally should not be the principal driver of a 
change in results, year over year.

1.6. Conservatism

    Given a reasonable set of assumptions or approaches, all else 
equal, the Federal Reserve will opt to use those that result in 
larger losses or lower revenue. For example, given a lack of 
information about the true risk of a portfolio, the Federal Reserve 
will compensate for the lack of data by using a high percentile loss 
rate.

1.7. Focus on the Ability To Evaluate the Impact of Severe Economic 
Stress

    In evaluating whether supervisory models are appropriate for use 
in a stress testing exercise, the Federal Reserve places particular 
emphasis on supervisory models' abilities to project outcomes in 
stressed economic environments. In the supervisory stress test, the 
Federal Reserve also seeks to capture risks to capital that arise 
specifically in times of economic stress, and that would not be 
prevalent in more typical economic environments. For example, the 
Federal Reserve includes losses stemming from the default of a 
covered company's largest

[[Page 59531]]

counterparty in projections of post-stress capital for firms with 
substantial trading or processing and custodial operations. The 
default of a company's largest counterparty is more likely to occur 
in times of severe economic stress than in normal economic 
conditions.

2. Supervisory Stress Test Model Policies

    To be consistent with the seven principles outlined in Section 
1, the Federal Reserve has established policies and procedures to 
guide the development, implementation, and use of all models used in 
supervisory stress test projections, described in more detail below. 
Each policy facilitates adherence to at least one of the modeling 
principles that govern the supervisory stress test, and in most 
cases facilitates adherence to several modeling principles.

2.1. Soundness in Model Design

    During development, the Federal Reserve (i) subjects supervisory 
models to extensive review of model theory and logic and general 
conceptual soundness; (ii) examines and evaluates justifications for 
modeling assumptions; and (iii) tests models to establish the 
accuracy and stability of the estimates and forecasts that they 
produce.
    After development, the Federal Reserve continues to subject 
supervisory models to scrutiny during implementation to ensure that 
the models remain appropriate for use in the stress test exercise. 
The Federal Reserve monitors changes in the economic environment, 
the structure of covered companies and their portfolios, and the 
structure of the stress testing exercise, if applicable, to verify 
that a model in use continues to serve the purposes for which it was 
designed. Generally, the same principles, rigor, and standards for 
evaluating the suitability of supervisory models that apply in model 
development and design will apply in ongoing monitoring of 
supervisory models.

2.2. Disclosure of Information Related to the Supervisory Stress Test

    In general, the Board does not disclose firm-specific results or 
other information related to the supervisory stress test to covered 
companies if that information is not also publicly disclosed. This 
policy promotes consistent and equitable treatment of covered 
companies by ensuring that institutions do not have access to 
information about the supervisory stress test that is not accessible 
to all covered companies, corresponding to Principle 1.3.
    The Board publicly discloses information related to the 
supervisory stress test on a regular basis, instead of privately 
communicating this information to covered companies. The Board has 
increased the breadth of its public disclosure since the inception 
of the supervisory stress test to include more information about 
model changes and key risk drivers, in addition to more detail on 
different components of projected net revenues and losses. 
Increasing public disclosure helps the public understand and 
interpret the results of the supervisory stress test, particularly 
with respect to the condition and capital adequacy of participating 
firms. Providing additional information about the supervisory stress 
test also allows the public to make an evaluation of the quality of 
the Board's capital adequacy assessment.

2.3. Phasing in of Highly Material Model Changes

    The Federal Reserve may revise its supervisory stress test 
models to include advances in modeling techniques, enhancements in 
response to model validation findings, incorporation of richer and 
more detailed data, public comment, and identification of models 
with improved performance, particularly under adverse economic 
conditions. Revisions to supervisory stress models may at times have 
a material impact on modeled outcomes.
    In order to mitigate sudden and unexpected changes to the 
supervisory stress test results, the Federal Reserve follows a 
general policy of phasing highly material model changes into the 
supervisory stress test over two years. The Federal Reserve assesses 
whether a model change would have a highly significant impact on the 
projections of losses, components of revenue, or post-stress capital 
ratios for covered companies. In these instances, in the first year 
when the model change is first implemented, estimates produced by 
the enhanced model are averaged with estimates produced by the model 
used in the previous stress test exercise. In the second and 
subsequent years, the supervisory stress test exercise will reflect 
only estimates produced by the enhanced model. This policy 
contributes to the stability of the results of the supervisory 
stress test, corresponding to Principle 1.5. By implementing highly 
material model changes over the course of two stress test cycles, 
the Federal Reserve seeks to ensure that changes in model 
projections primarily reflect changes in underlying risk factors and 
scenarios, year over year.
    Question number 2: The Federal Reserve assesses individual model 
changes each year to determine whether these model changes will have 
a highly significant impact on the projections of losses, revenues, 
or post-stress capital ratios for covered companies, and whether 
these changes warrant a phase-in over two stress test exercises. 
What thresholds should the Federal Reserve use to determine whether 
model changes will have a highly significant impact on projections?

2.4. Limiting Reliance on Past Outcomes

    Models should not place undue emphasis on historical outcomes in 
predicting future outcomes. The Federal Reserve aims to produce 
supervisory stress test results that reflect likely outcomes under 
the supervisory scenarios. The supervisory scenarios may potentially 
incorporate events that have not occurred historically. It is not 
consistent with the purpose of a stress testing exercise to assume 
that the future will always be like the past.
    In order to model potential outcomes outside the realm of 
historical experience, the Federal Reserve generally does not 
include variables that would capture unobserved historical patterns 
in supervisory models. The use of industry-level models, restricted 
use of firm-specific fixed effects (described below), and minimized 
use of dummy variables indicating a loan vintage or a specific year 
ensure that the outcomes of the supervisory models are forward-
looking, consistent and comparable across firms, and robust and 
stable.
    Firm-specific fixed effects are variables that identify a 
specific firm and capture unobserved differences in the revenues, 
expenses or losses among firms. Firm-specific fixed effects are 
generally not incorporated in supervisory models in order to avoid 
the assumption that unobserved firm-specific historical patterns 
will continue in the future. Exceptions to this policy are made 
where appropriate. For example, if granular portfolio-level data on 
key drivers of a covered company's performance are limited or 
unavailable, and firm-specific fixed effects are more predictive of 
a covered company's future performance than are industry-level 
variables, then supervisory models may be specified with firm-
specific fixed effects.
    Models used in the supervisory stress test are developed 
according to an industry-level approach, calibrated using data from 
many institutions. In adhering to an industry-level approach, the 
Federal Reserve models the response of specific portfolios and 
instruments to variations in macroeconomic and financial scenario 
variables. In this way, the Federal Reserve ensures that differences 
across covered companies are driven by differences in firm-specific 
input data, as opposed to differences in model parameters or 
specifications. The industry approach to modeling is also forward-
looking, consistent with Principle 1.2, as the Federal Reserve does 
not assume that historical patterns will necessarily continue into 
the future for individual firms. By modeling a portfolio or 
instrument's response to changes in economic or financial conditions 
at the industry level, the Federal Reserve ensures that projected 
future losses are a function of that portfolio or instrument's own 
characteristics, rather than the historical experience of the 
covered company. This policy helps to ensure that two firms with the 
same portfolio receive the same results for that portfolio in the 
supervisory stress test.
    The Federal Reserve minimizes the use of loan vintage or year-
specific fixed effects when estimating models and producing 
supervisory projections. In general, these types of variables are 
employed only when there are significant structural market shifts or 
other unusual factors for which supervisory models cannot otherwise 
account. Similar to the firm-specific fixed effects policy, and 
consistent with Principle 1.2, this vintage indicator policy is in 
place so that projections of future performance under stress do not 
incorporate assumptions that patterns in unmeasured factors from 
brief historical time periods persist. For example, the loans 
originated in a particular year should not be assumed to continue to 
default at a higher rate in the future because they did so in the 
past.
    Question number 3: The Federal Reserve seeks to model potential 
outcomes outside the realm of historical experience, and in 
connection with doing so, has implemented policies to limit its own 
reliance on historical outcomes in model design and calibration. 
What other policies or methodologies would allow the Federal Reserve 
to incorporate

[[Page 59532]]

events that have not occurred historically in supervisory stress 
test projections while maintaining the integrity of the supervisory 
stress tests?

2.5. Treatment of Global Market Shock and Largest Counterparty Default 
Components

    Both the global market shock and counterparty default components 
are exogenous components of the supervisory stress scenarios that 
are independent of the macroeconomic and financial market 
environment specified in those scenarios, and do not affect 
projections of risk-weighted assets or balances. The global market 
shock, which specifies movements in numerous market factors,\1\ 
applies only to covered companies with significant trading exposure. 
The largest counterparty default scenario component applies only to 
covered companies with substantial trading or processing and 
custodial operations. Though these stress factors may not be 
directly correlated to macroeconomic or financial assumptions, they 
can materially affect covered companies' risks. Losses from both 
components are therefore considered in addition to the estimates of 
losses under the macroeconomic scenario.
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    \1\ See appendix A to this part, ``Policy Statement on the 
Scenario Design Framework for Stress Testing,'' for a detailed 
description of the global market shock.
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    Counterparty credit risk on derivatives and repo-style 
activities is incorporated in supervisory modeling in part by 
assuming the default of the single counterparty to which the covered 
firm would be most exposed in the global market shock event.\2\ 
Requiring covered companies subject to the largest counterparty 
default component to estimate and report the potential losses and 
effects on capital associated with such an instantaneous default is 
a simple method for capturing an important risk to capital for firms 
with large trading and custodial or processing activities. 
Engagement in substantial trading or custodial operations makes the 
covered companies subject to the largest counterparty default 
scenario component particularly vulnerable to the default of their 
major counterparty or their clients' counterparty, in transactions 
for which the covered companies act as agents. The largest 
counterparty default component is consistent with the purpose of a 
stress testing exercise, as discussed in Principle 1.7. The default 
of a covered company's largest counterparty is a salient risk in a 
macroeconomic and financial crisis, and generally less likely to 
occur in times of economic stability. This approach seeks to ensure 
that covered companies can absorb losses associated with the default 
of any counterparty, in addition to losses associated with adverse 
economic conditions, in an environment of economic uncertainty.
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    \2\ In addition to incorporating counterparty credit risk by 
assuming the default of the covered company's largest counterparty, 
the Federal Reserve incorporates counterparty credit risk in the 
supervisory stress test by estimating mark-to-market losses, credit 
valuation adjustment (CVA) losses, and incremental default risk 
(IDR) losses associated with the global market shock.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The full effect of the global market shock and counterparty 
default components is realized in net income in the first quarter of 
the projection horizon in the supervisory stress test. The Board 
expects covered companies with material trading and counterparty 
exposures to be sufficiently capitalized to absorb losses stemming 
from these exposures that could occur during times of general 
macroeconomic stress.

2.6. Incorporation of Business Plan Changes

    The Federal Reserve incorporates material changes in the 
business plans of covered companies, including mergers, 
acquisitions, and divestitures over the projection horizon, in the 
supervisory stress test projections. The incorporation of business 
plan changes in the supervisory stress test is a requirement of the 
capital plan rule,\3\ and captures a risk to the capital of covered 
companies. Allowing for the inclusion of mergers, acquisitions, and 
divestitures is forward-looking, and consistent with Principle 1.2, 
as the Federal Reserve seeks to capture material impacts on a 
covered company's post-stress capital that may arise from a business 
plan change in the course of the projection horizon.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \3\ 12 CFR 225.8(e)(2).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The incorporation of business plan changes in supervisory 
projections is consistent with the purpose of a stress testing 
exercise, corresponding to Principle 1.7. In CCAR specifically, the 
Board evaluates whether covered companies have the ability to 
complete their projected capital actions in the supervisory stress 
test while remaining above post-stress minimum capital and leverage 
ratios. Business plan changes such as mergers, acquisitions, or 
divestitures, may have material impacts on these firm-projected 
capital actions and on the projected ability of a covered company to 
make planned capital distributions and maintain capital ratios above 
regulatory minima.
    A consistent methodology for modeling of business plan changes 
is applied across covered companies. The data that are available 
about characteristics of assets being acquired or divested are 
generally limited and less granular than other data collected by the 
Board in the Capital Assessments and Stress Testing (FR Y-14) 
information collection. Projections of the effects of business plan 
changes may rely on less granular information and may result in 
simpler modeling approaches than supervisory projections for legacy 
portfolios or businesses.

2.7. Credit Supply Maintenance

    The supervisory stress test incorporates the assumption that 
aggregate credit supply does not contract during the stress period. 
The aim of supervisory stress testing is to assess whether firms are 
sufficiently capitalized to absorb losses during times of economic 
stress, while meeting obligations and continuing to lend to 
households and businesses. The assumption that a balance sheet of 
constant or increasing magnitude is maintained allows supervisors to 
evaluate the health of the banking sector, assuming firms continue 
to lend during times of stress.
    In order to implement this policy, the Federal Reserve must make 
assumptions about new loan balances. To predict losses on new 
originations over the planning horizon, newly originated loans are 
assumed to have the same risk characteristics as the existing 
portfolio, where applicable, with the exception of loan age and 
delinquency status. These newly originated loans would be part of a 
covered company's normal business, even in a stressed economic 
environment. While an individual firm may assume that it reacts to 
rising losses by sharply restricting its lending, (e.g. by exiting a 
particular business line), the banking industry as a whole cannot do 
so without creating a ``credit crunch'' and substantially increasing 
the severity and duration of an economic downturn. The assumption 
that the magnitude of firm balance sheets will be fixed or growing 
in the supervisory stress test ensures that covered companies cannot 
assume they will ``shrink to health,'' and serves the Federal 
Reserve's goal of helping to ensure that major financial firms 
remain sufficiently capitalized to accommodate credit demand in a 
severe downturn. In addition, by precluding the need to make 
assumptions about how underwriting standards might tighten or loosen 
during times of economic stress, the Federal Reserve adheres to 
Principle 1.3 and promotes consistency across covered companies.
    Question number 4: The Federal Reserve seeks to assess covered 
companies' capital adequacy in times of stress while those firms 
continue to lend. Beyond assuming that the magnitude of firm balance 
sheets is fixed or growing, are there other assumptions that could 
be incorporated into the supervisory stress test that would allow 
the Federal Reserve to make this assessment?

2.8. Firm-Specific Overlays and Additional Firm-Provided Data

    The Federal Reserve does not make firm-specific overlays to 
model results used in the supervisory stress test. This policy 
ensures that the supervisory stress test results are determined 
solely by the industry-level supervisory models and by firm-specific 
input data. The Federal Reserve does not use additional input data 
submitted by one or more covered companies unless it collects 
comparable data from all the covered companies that have material 
exposure in a given area. Input data necessary to produce 
supervisory stress test estimates is collected via the Capital 
Assessments and Stress Testing (FR Y-14) information collection. The 
Federal Reserve may request additional information from covered 
companies, but otherwise will not incorporate additional information 
provided as part of a firm's CCAR submission or obtained through 
other channels into stress test projections.
    This policy curbs the use of data only from firms that have 
incentives to provide it, as in cases in which additional data would 
support the estimation of a lower loss rate or a higher revenue 
rate, and adheres to Principle 1.3 by promoting consistency across 
the stress test results of covered companies.

2.9. Treatment of Missing or Erroneous Data

    Missing data, or data with deficiencies significant enough to 
preclude the use of supervisory models, create uncertainty around 
estimates of losses or components of revenue. If data that are 
direct inputs to

[[Page 59533]]

supervisory models are not provided as required by the Capital 
Assessments and Stress Testing (FR Y-14) information collection or 
are reported erroneously, then a conservative value will be assigned 
to the specific data based on all available data reported by covered 
companies, depending on the extent of the data deficiency. If the 
data deficiency is severe enough that a modeled estimate cannot be 
produced for a portfolio segment or portfolio, then the Federal 
Reserve may assign a conservative rate (e.g., 10th or 90th 
percentile PPNR or loss rate, respectively) to that segment or 
portfolio.
    This policy reflects a conservative assumption given a lack of 
information sufficient to produce a risk-sensitive estimate of 
losses or revenues. This policy promotes policy 1.3 by ensuring 
consistent treatment for all covered companies that report data 
deemed insufficient to produce a modeled estimate. Finally, this 
policy is simple and transparent, consistent with Principle 1.4.

2.10. Treatment of Immaterial Portfolio Data

    The Federal Reserve makes a distinction between missing or 
insufficient data reported by covered companies for material and 
immaterial portfolios. To limit regulatory burden, the Federal 
Reserve allows covered companies not to report detailed loan-level 
or portfolio-level data for loan types that are not material as 
defined in the FR Y-14 reporting instructions. In these cases, a 
loss rate representing the median rates among covered companies for 
whom the rate is calculated will be applied to immaterial 
portfolios. This approach is consistent across covered companies, 
simple, and transparent, promoting Principles 1.3 and 1.4.
    Question number 5: Each of the modeling policies described in 
Section 2 are consistent with at least one of the central principles 
of supervisory stress test modeling described herein. Are there 
other policies the Federal Reserve could implement to further 
promote the principles of independence, forward-looking perspective, 
consistency and comparability, simplicity, robustness and stability, 
or conservativism, or that would focus on the ability to evaluate 
the impact of severe economic stress?

3. Principles and Policies of Supervisory Model Validation

    Independent and comprehensive model validation is key to the 
credibility of the supervisory stress test. An independent unit of 
validation staff within the Federal Reserve, with input from an 
advisory council of academic experts not affiliated with the Federal 
Reserve, ensures that stress test models are subject to effective 
challenge, defined as critical analysis by objective, informed 
parties that can identify model limitations and recommend 
appropriate changes.
    The Federal Reserve's supervisory model validation program, 
built upon the principles of independence, technical competence, and 
stature, is able to subject models to effective challenge, expanding 
upon supervisory modeling teams' efforts to manage model risk and 
confirming that supervisory models are appropriate for their 
intended uses. The supervisory model validation program produces 
reviews that are consistent, thorough, and comprehensive. Its 
structure ensures independence from the Federal Reserve's model 
development function, and its prominent role in communicating the 
state of model risk to the Board of Governors assures its stature 
within the Federal Reserve.

3.1. Structural Independence

    The management and staff of the internal model validation 
program are structurally independent from the model development 
teams. Validators do not report to model developers, and vice versa. 
This ensures that model validation is conducted and overseen by 
objective parties. Validation staff's performance criteria include 
an ability to review all aspects of the models rigorously, 
thoroughly, and objectively, and to provide meaningful and clear 
feedback to model developers and users.
    In addition, a council of external academic experts provides 
independent advice on the Federal Reserve's process to assess models 
used in the supervisory stress test. In biannual meetings with 
Federal Reserve officials, members of the council discuss selected 
supervisory models, after being provided with detailed model 
documentation for those models, including some confidential 
supervisory information. The documentation and discussions enable 
the council to assess the effectiveness of the models used in the 
supervisory stress tests and of the overarching model validation 
program.

3.2. Technical Competence of Validation Staff

    The model validation program is designed to provide thorough, 
high-quality reviews that are consistent across supervisory models.
    First, the model validation program employs technically expert 
staff with knowledge across model types. Second, reviews for every 
supervisory model follow the same set of review guidelines, and take 
place on an ongoing basis. The model validation program is 
comprehensive, in the sense that validators assess all models 
currently in use, and expand the scope of validation beyond basic 
model use, and cover both model soundness and performance.
    The model validation program covers three main areas of 
validation: (1) Conceptual soundness; (2) ongoing monitoring; and 
(3) outcomes analysis. Validation staff evaluate all aspects of 
model development, implementation, and use, including but not 
limited to theory, design, methodology, input data, testing, 
performance, documentation standards, implementation controls 
(including access and change controls), and code verification. 
Finally, the model validation program seeks to balance technical 
expertise with fresh scrutiny of supervisory models. In order to 
provide a new perspective on established models and practices, 
validation staff are re-allocated across models at regular 
intervals.

3.3. Stature of Validation Function

    Through clear communication and participation in the model 
decision making process, the validation function has the influence 
and stature within the Federal Reserve to ensure that any issues and 
deficiencies are appropriately addressed in a timely and substantive 
manner.
    The model validation program communicates its findings and 
recommendations regarding model risk to all internal stakeholders. 
Validators provide detailed feedback to model developers and provide 
thematic feedback or observations on the overall system of models to 
the management of the modeling teams. Model validation feedback is 
also communicated to the users of supervisory model output for use 
in their deliberations and decisions about supervisory stress 
testing. In addition, the Federal Reserve Board's Director of 
Supervision and Regulation approves all models used in the 
supervisory stress test in advance of each exercise, based on 
validators' recommendations, development responses, and suggestions 
for risk mitigants. In several cases, models have been modified or 
implemented differently based on validators' feedback. The advisory 
council of academic experts also contributes to the stature of the 
Federal Reserve's validation program, by providing an external point 
of view on modifications to supervisory models and on validation 
program governance.
    Ultimately, the validation program serves to inform the Board of 
Governors about the state of model risk in the overall stress 
testing program, along with ongoing practices to control and 
mitigate model risk.

    By order of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve 
System, December 7, 2017.
Ann E. Misback,
Secretary of the Board.
[FR Doc. 2017-26857 Filed 12-14-17; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6210-01-P



                                                 59528

                                                 Proposed Rules                                                                                                Federal Register
                                                                                                                                                               Vol. 82, No. 240

                                                                                                                                                               Friday, December 15, 2017



                                                 This section of the FEDERAL REGISTER                    electronically or in paper form in Room               capital plan rule.3 The Board is
                                                 contains notices to the public of the proposed          3515, 1801 K St. NW (between 18th and                 proposing the Policy Statement to
                                                 issuance of rules and regulations. The                  19th Streets NW), Washington, DC                      increase transparency around the
                                                 purpose of these notices is to give interested          20006 between 9:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m.                 development, implementation, and
                                                 persons an opportunity to participate in the            on weekdays. For security reasons, the                validation of these models by the
                                                 rule making prior to the adoption of the final
                                                                                                         Board requires that visitors make an                  Federal Reserve. Accordingly, the Policy
                                                 rules.
                                                                                                         appointment to inspect comments. You                  Statement would not apply to models
                                                                                                         may do so by calling (202) 452–3684.                  used by covered companies in the
                                                 FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM                                  Upon arrival, visitors will be required to            company-run stress tests mandated by
                                                                                                         present valid government-issued photo                 the Dodd-Frank Act and the Board’s
                                                 12 CFR Part 252                                         identification and to submit to security              stress test rules.4
                                                                                                         screening in order to inspect and
                                                 [Regulation YY; Docket No. OP–1587]                                                                           II. Background
                                                                                                         photocopy comments.
                                                                                                         FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Lisa                    Supervisory stress testing is a tool that
                                                 Stress Testing Policy Statement
                                                                                                         Ryu, Associate Director, (202) 263–4833,              allows the Board to assess whether the
                                                 AGENCY:  Board of Governors of the                      Kathleen Johnson, Assistant Director,                 largest and most complex financial
                                                 Federal Reserve System (Board).                         (202) 452–3644, Joseph Cox,                           firms are sufficiently capitalized to
                                                 ACTION: Proposed rule; policy statement                 Supervisory Financial Analyst, (202)                  absorb losses in stressful economic
                                                 with request for public comment.                        452–3216, Hillel Kipnis, Senior                       conditions while continuing to meet
                                                                                                         Financial Analyst, (202) 452–2924,                    obligations to creditors and other
                                                 SUMMARY:   The Board is inviting                        Aurite Werman, Financial Analyst,                     counterparties and to lend to
                                                 comment on a proposed policy                            (202) 263–4802, Division of Supervision               households and businesses. The 2007–
                                                 statement on the approach to                            and Regulation; Benjamin W.                           2009 financial crisis showed that many
                                                 supervisory stress testing conducted                    McDonough, Assistant General Counsel,                 large bank holding companies (BHCs)
                                                 under the Board’s Regulation YY                         (202) 452–2036, or Julie Anthony,                     did not hold capital commensurate with
                                                 pursuant to the Dodd-Frank Wall Street                  Counsel, (202) 475–6682, Legal                        their risk profiles and were
                                                 Reform and Consumer Protection Act                      Division, Board of Governors of the                   insufficiently capitalized to withstand
                                                 (Dodd-Frank Act) and the Board’s                        Federal Reserve System, 20th Street and               unanticipated losses in severe economic
                                                 capital plan rule.                                      Constitution Avenue NW, Washington,                   stress and remain a going concern. Post-
                                                 DATES: Comments must be received by                     DC 20551. Users of Telecommunication                  crisis reforms to regulation and
                                                 January 22, 2018.                                       Device for Deaf (TDD) only, call (202)                supervision have improved the quality
                                                 ADDRESSES: You may submit comments,                     263–4869.                                             and quantity of capital in the financial
                                                 identified by Docket No. OP–1587 by                     SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:                            system. These improvements have
                                                 any of the following methods:                                                                                 strengthened financial institutions and
                                                                                                         I. Overview                                           have reduced the likelihood and
                                                    • Agency website: http://
                                                 www.federalreserve.gov. Follow the                         The proposed policy statement                      severity of future financial crises, which
                                                 instructions for submitting comments at                 (Policy Statement) outlines the key                   can cause severe and lasting damage to
                                                 http://www.federalreserve.gov/                          principles and policies governing the                 the economy.
                                                 generalinfo/foia/ProposedRegs.aspx.                     Board’s approach to the development,                     The Board’s approach to supervisory
                                                    • Federal eRulemaking Portal: http://                implementation, and validation of                     stress testing has evolved since the
                                                 www.regulations.gov. Follow the                         models used in the supervisory stress                 Supervisory Capital Assessment
                                                 instructions for submitting comments.                   test. The supervisory stress test models              Program (SCAP) in 2009, which was the
                                                    • Email: regs.comments@                              are used to produce estimates of post-                first evaluation of BHCs’ capital levels
                                                 federalreserve.gov. Include the docket                  stress capital ratios for covered                     on a forward-looking basis under stress.
                                                 number and RIN number in the subject                    companies,1 pursuant to the Dodd-                     The lessons from SCAP encouraged the
                                                 line of the message.                                    Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer                 creation, pursuant to the Dodd-Frank
                                                    • Fax: (202) 452–2819 or (202) 452–                  Protection Act (Dodd-Frank Act) and the               Act, of DFAST,5 a forward-looking
                                                 3102.                                                   Board’s stress test rules.2 This annual               quantitative evaluation of the impact of
                                                    • Mail: Ann Misback, Secretary,                      exercise is referred to as the Dodd-Frank             stressful economic and financial market
                                                 Board of Governors of the Federal                       Act Stress Test (DFAST). The                          conditions on covered companies’
                                                 Reserve System, 20th Street and                         supervisory models are also used in the               capital. CCAR is a related supervisory
                                                 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington,                     Comprehensive Capital Analysis and                    program that was developed pursuant to
                                                 DC 20551.                                               Review (CCAR), pursuant to the Board’s                the Board’s capital plan rule and focuses
                                                    All public comments will be made                                                                           on forward-looking capital planning and
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                                                 available on the Board’s website at
                                                                                                           1 Covered companies are defined as bank holding     the use of stress testing to assess firms’
                                                                                                         companies (BHCs) and U.S. intermediate holding        capital adequacy. The quantitative
                                                 http://www.federalreserve.gov/                          companies of foreign banking organizations (IHCs)
                                                 generalinfo/foia/ProposedRegs.aspx as                   with total consolidated assets of $50 billion or
                                                                                                                                                               assessment in CCAR uses the same
                                                 submitted, unless modified for technical                more, and any nonbank financial company that the
                                                                                                                                                                 3 12
                                                                                                         Financial Stability Oversight Committee has                  CFR 225.8.
                                                 reasons. Accordingly, your comments
                                                                                                         determined shall be supervised by the Board. See        4 See  12 U.S.C. 5365(i); 12 CFR part 252, subparts
                                                 will not be edited to remove any                        12 U.S.C. 5365.                                       B and F.
                                                 identifying or contact information.                       2 Public Law 111–203, 124 Stat. 1376 (2010); 12       5 77 FR 62377 (October 12, 2012) (stress test

                                                 Public comments may also be viewed                      CFR part 252, subpart E.                              rules). See 12 CFR part 252, subparts E and F.



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                                                                       Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 240 / Friday, December 15, 2017 / Proposed Rules                                                   59529

                                                 supervisory stress test as does DFAST,                  inviting public comment on all aspects                 million or less are small entities for
                                                 and includes firms’ planned capital                     of the proposed Policy Statement.                      purposes of the RFA.
                                                 distributions, including any dividend                                                                             As discussed in the SUPPLEMENTARY
                                                                                                         III. Administrative Law Matters                        INFORMATION, the proposed policy
                                                 payments or common stock
                                                 repurchases.6 By assessing the capital                  A. Use of Plain Language                               statement generally would affect the
                                                 adequacy of a covered company under                        Section 722 of the Gramm-Leach-                     stress test framework used in
                                                 severe projected economic and financial                 Bliley Act (Pub. L. 106–102, 113 Stat.                 regulations that apply to bank holding
                                                 stress, the supervisory stress test                     1338, 1471, 12 U.S.C. 4809) requires the               companies with $50 billion or more in
                                                 complements minimum regulatory                          Federal banking agencies to use plain                  total consolidated assets and nonbank
                                                 capital ratios, which reflect the covered               language in all proposed and final rules               financial companies that the Council
                                                 company’s current condition.                            published after January 1, 2000. The                   has determined under section 113 of the
                                                    The proposed Policy Statement                        Board has sought to present the                        Dodd-Frank Act must be supervised by
                                                 describes the principles, policies, and                 proposed rule in a simple and                          the Board and for which such
                                                 procedures that guide the development,                  straightforward manner, and invites                    determination is in effect. Companies
                                                 implementation, and validation of the                   comment on the use of plain language.                  that are affected by the proposed policy
                                                 Federal Reserve’s supervisory stress test                                                                      statement therefore substantially exceed
                                                 models, and would complement the                        B. Paperwork Reduction Act Analysis                    the $175 million asset threshold at
                                                 Board’s policy statement on scenario                      In accordance with the requirements                  which a banking entity is considered a
                                                 design.7                                                of the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995                 ‘‘small entity’’ under SBA regulations.10
                                                    The Federal Reserve maintains the                    (44 U.S.C. 3506), the Board has                        The proposed policy statement would
                                                 same standards for model development                    reviewed the proposed policy statement                 affect a nonbank financial company
                                                 and implementation of supervisory                       to assess any information collections.                 designated by the Council under section
                                                 models as the Federal Reserve has                       There are no collections of information                113 of the Dodd-Frank Act regardless of
                                                 established for covered companies. In                   as defined by the Paperwork Reduction                  such a company’s asset size. Although
                                                 addition to maintaining those standards,                Act in the proposal.                                   the asset size of nonbank financial
                                                                                                                                                                companies may not be the determinative
                                                 the Federal Reserve adheres to specific                 C. Regulatory Flexibility Act Analysis                 factor of whether such companies may
                                                 principles for model development and
                                                                                                            In accordance with section 3(a) of the              pose systemic risks and would be
                                                 implementation. These principles,
                                                                                                         Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA), the                  designated by the Council for
                                                 which apply broadly across the full set
                                                                                                         Board is publishing an initial regulatory              supervision by the Board, it is an
                                                 of supervisory models, have guided the
                                                                                                         flexibility analysis of the proposed                   important consideration.11 It is therefore
                                                 formulation of the Federal Reserve’s
                                                                                                         policy statement. The RFA, 5 U.S.C. 601                unlikely that a financial firm that is at
                                                 supervisory modeling approach and
                                                                                                         et seq., requires each federal agency to               or below the $175 million asset
                                                 continue to guide changes to
                                                                                                         prepare an initial regulatory flexibility              threshold would be designated by the
                                                 supervisory models.
                                                                                                         analysis in connection with the                        Council under section 113 of the Dodd-
                                                    Models used in the supervisory stress                promulgation of a proposed rule, or                    Frank Act because material financial
                                                 test are also subject to ongoing review                 certify that the proposed rule will not                distress at such firms, or the nature,
                                                 and validation by an independent unit                   have a significant economic impact on                  scope, size, scale, concentration,
                                                 within the Federal Reserve. In addition                 a substantial number of small entities.8               interconnectedness, or mix of it
                                                 to addressing principles and policies of                The RFA requires an agency either to                   activities, are not likely to pose a threat
                                                 model development, implementation,                      provide an initial regulatory flexibility              to the financial stability of the United
                                                 and use, the Policy Statement describes                 analysis with a proposed rule for which                States.
                                                 principles of model validation, which is                a general notice of proposed rulemaking                   As noted above, because the proposed
                                                 central to the credibility of supervisory               is required or to certify that the                     policy statement is not likely to apply
                                                 models and to the credibility of the                    proposed rule will not have a significant              to any company with assets of $175
                                                 stress test exercise. The proposed Policy               economic impact on a substantial                       million or less, if adopted in final form,
                                                 Statement is organized as follows.                      number of small entities. Based on its                 it is not expected to affect any small
                                                 Section 1 describes the principles that                 analysis and for the reasons stated                    entity for purposes of the RFA. The
                                                 guide the design of the supervisory                     below, the Board believes that the                     Board does not believe that the
                                                 stress test and the Federal Reserve’s                   proposed policy statement will not have                proposed policy statement duplicates,
                                                 approach to supervisory modeling.                       a significant economic impact on a                     overlaps, or conflicts with any other
                                                 Section 2 describes the governing                       substantial number of small entities.                  Federal rules. In light of the foregoing,
                                                 policies and implementation of the                         Under regulations issued by the Small               the Board does not believe that the
                                                 supervisory stress test. Section 3                      Business Administration (SBA), a                       proposed policy statement, if adopted in
                                                 establishes the principles and policies                 ‘‘small entity’’ includes those firms                  final form, would have a significant
                                                 for the validation of models used in the                within the ‘‘Finance and Insurance’’                   economic impact on a substantial
                                                 supervisory stress test. The Board may                  sector with asset sizes that vary from $7              number of small entities supervised.
                                                 determine that modifications to the                     million or less in assets to $175 million              Nonetheless, the Board seeks comment
                                                 Policy Statement would be appropriate                   or less in assets.9 The Board believes                 on whether the proposed policy
                                                 if the principles and policies that guide               that the Finance and Insurance sector                  statement would impose undue burdens
                                                 decisions in the supervisory stress test                constitutes a reasonable universe of                   on, or have unintended consequences
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                                                 are revised materially. The Board is                    firms for these purposes because such
                                                                                                         firms generally engage in actives that are               10 The Dodd-Frank Act provides that the Board
                                                   6 12 CFR 225.8. CCAR also includes a qualitative      financial in nature. Consequently, bank                may, on the recommendation of the Council,
                                                 assessment of capital planning practices at the         holding companies or nonbank financial                 increase the $50 billion asset threshold for the
                                                 largest and most complex firms, which is not the                                                               application of certain of the enhanced standards.
                                                 subject of this proposed Policy Statement.              companies with assets sizes of $175                    See 12 U.S.C. 5365(a)(2)(B). However, neither the
                                                   7 See 12 CFR part 252, appendix A, ‘‘Policy                                                                  Board nor the Council has the authority to lower
                                                                                                           8 See   5 U.S.C. 603, 604, and 605.                  such threshold.
                                                 Statement on the Scenario Design Framework for
                                                 Stress Testing.’’                                         9 13   CFR 121.201.                                    11 See 76 FR 4555 (January 26, 2011).




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                                                 59530                 Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 240 / Friday, December 15, 2017 / Proposed Rules

                                                 for, small organizations, and whether                      The independence of the supervisory stress         projections for all covered companies
                                                 there are ways such potential burdens or                test allows stress test projections to adhere to      participating in the supervisory stress test. A
                                                 consequences could be minimized in a                    the other key principles described in the             standard set of scenarios, assumptions, and
                                                                                                         Policy Statement. The use of independent              models promotes equitable treatment of firms
                                                 manner consistent its purpose.                          models allows for consistent treatment across         participating in the supervisory stress test
                                                 List of Subjects in 12 CFR Part 252                     firms. Losses and revenues under stress are           and comparability of results, supporting
                                                                                                         estimated using the same modeling                     cross-firm analysis and providing valuable
                                                   Administrative practice and                           assumptions for all covered companies,                information to supervisors and to the public.
                                                 procedure, Banks, Banking, Federal                      enabling comparisons across supervisory               Adhering to a consistent modeling approach
                                                 Reserve System, Holding companies,                      stress test results. Differences in covered           across covered companies means that
                                                 Nonbank financial companies                             companies’ results reflect differences in firm-       differences in projected results are due to
                                                 supervised by the Board, Reporting and                  specific risks and input data instead of              differences in input data, such as instrument
                                                 recordkeeping requirements, Securities,                 differences in modeling assumptions. The              type or portfolio risk characteristics, rather
                                                 Stress testing.                                         use of independent models also ensures that           than differences in firm-specific assumptions
                                                                                                         stress test results are produced by stress-           made by the Federal Reserve.
                                                 Authority and Issuance                                  focused models, designed to project the               1.4. Simplicity
                                                                                                         performance of covered companies in
                                                   For the reasons stated in the                         adverse economic conditions.                             The Federal Reserve uses simple
                                                 Supplementary Information, the Board                       In instances in which it is not possible or        approaches in supervisory modeling, where
                                                 of Governors of the Federal Reserve                     appropriate to create a supervisory model for         possible. Given a range of modeling
                                                 System proposes to amend 12 CFR part                    use in the stress test, including when                approaches that are equally conceptually
                                                 252 as follows:                                         supervisory data are insufficient to support a        sound, the Federal Reserve will select the
                                                                                                         modeled estimate of losses or revenues, the           least complex modeling approach. In
                                                 PART 252—ENHANCED PRUDENTIAL                            Federal Reserve may use firm-provided                 assessing simplicity, the Federal Reserve
                                                                                                         estimates or third-party models or data. For          favors those modeling approaches that allow
                                                 STANDARDS (Regulation YY)
                                                                                                         example, in order to project trading and              for a more straightforward interpretation of
                                                 ■ 1. The authority citation for part 252                counterparty losses, sensitivities to risk            the drivers of model results and that
                                                                                                         factors and other information generated by            minimize operational challenges for model
                                                 continues to read as follows:                                                                                 implementation.
                                                                                                         covered companies’ internal models are used.
                                                   Authority: 12 U.S.C. 321–338a, 1467a(g),              In the cases where firm-provided or third-            1.5. Robustness and Stability
                                                 1818, 1831p–1, 1844(b), 1844(c), 5361, 5365,            party model estimates are used, the Federal
                                                 5366.                                                   Reserve monitors the quality and                         The Federal Reserve maintains supervisory
                                                                                                         performance of the estimates through                  models that aim to be robust and stable, such
                                                 ■ 2. Add appendix B to part 252 to read                                                                       that changes in model projections over time
                                                                                                         targeted examination, additional data
                                                 as follows:                                             collection, or benchmarking. The Board                reflect underlying risk factors, scenarios, and
                                                                                                         releases a list of the providers of third-party       model enhancements, rather than transitory
                                                 Appendix B to Part 252—Stress Testing                                                                         factors. The estimates of post-stress capital
                                                 Policy Statement                                        models or data used in the stress test exercise
                                                                                                         in the annual disclosure of quantitative              produced by the supervisory stress test
                                                   This Policy Statement describes the                   results.                                              provide information regarding a covered
                                                 principles, policies, and procedures that                  Question number 1: The modeling                    company’s capital adequacy to market
                                                 guide the development, implementation, and              framework of the Federal Reserve’s                    participants, covered companies, and the
                                                 validation of models used in the Federal                supervisory stress test seeks to promote              public. Adherence to this principle helps to
                                                 Reserve’s supervisory stress test.                      consistency and comparability in evaluating           ensure that changes in these model
                                                                                                         the impact of severe economic stress upon             projections over time are not driven by
                                                 1. Principles of Supervisory Stress Testing                                                                   temporary variations in model performance
                                                                                                         covered companies by generating
                                                    The system of models used in the                     independent estimates of losses, revenues,            or inputs. Supervisory models are
                                                 supervisory stress test is designed to result in        and capital. Are there additional advantages          recalibrated with newly available input data
                                                 projections that are (i) from an independent            or disadvantages to this independent                  each year. These data affect supervisory
                                                 supervisory perspective; (ii) forward-looking;          framework, relative to a framework that relies        model projections, particularly in times of
                                                 (iii) consistent and comparable across                  on models or estimates provided by covered            evolving risks. However, these changes
                                                 covered companies; (iv) generated from                  companies?                                            generally should not be the principal driver
                                                 simple approaches, where appropriate; (v)                                                                     of a change in results, year over year.
                                                 robust and stable; (vi) conservative; and (vii)         1.2. Forward-Looking
                                                                                                                                                               1.6. Conservatism
                                                 able to capture the impact of economic stress.             The Federal Reserve has designed the
                                                 These principles are further explained below.           supervisory stress test to be forward-looking.           Given a reasonable set of assumptions or
                                                                                                         Supervisory models are tools for producing            approaches, all else equal, the Federal
                                                 1.1. Independence                                                                                             Reserve will opt to use those that result in
                                                                                                         projections of potential losses and revenue
                                                    In the supervisory stress test, the Federal          effects based on each covered company’s               larger losses or lower revenue. For example,
                                                 Reserve uses models that are developed                  portfolio and circumstances.                          given a lack of information about the true risk
                                                 internally and independently (i.e., separately             While supervisory models are specified             of a portfolio, the Federal Reserve will
                                                 from models used by covered companies).                 using historical data, they should generally          compensate for the lack of data by using a
                                                 The supervisory models rely on detailed                 avoid relying solely on extrapolation of past         high percentile loss rate.
                                                 portfolio data provided by covered                      trends in order to make projections, and              1.7. Focus on the Ability To Evaluate the
                                                 companies, but do not rely on models or                 instead should be able to incorporate events          Impact of Severe Economic Stress
                                                 estimates provided by covered companies to              or outcomes that have not occurred. As
                                                 the greatest extent possible.                           described in Section 2.4, the Federal Reserve            In evaluating whether supervisory models
                                                    The Federal Reserve’s stress testing                 implements several supervisory modeling               are appropriate for use in a stress testing
                                                 framework is unique among regulators in its             policies to limit reliance on past outcomes in        exercise, the Federal Reserve places
                                                 generation of estimates of covered                      its projections of losses and revenues. The           particular emphasis on supervisory models’
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                                                 companies’ stressed losses and revenues that            incorporation of the macroeconomic scenario           abilities to project outcomes in stressed
                                                 are not determined in consultation with firms           and global market shock component also                economic environments. In the supervisory
                                                 or influenced by firm-provided estimates.               introduces elements outside the realm of              stress test, the Federal Reserve also seeks to
                                                 Doing so enables the Federal Reserve to                 historical experience into the supervisory            capture risks to capital that arise specifically
                                                 provide the public and the covered                      stress test.                                          in times of economic stress, and that would
                                                 companies with credible, independent                                                                          not be prevalent in more typical economic
                                                 assessments of each firm’s capital adequacy             1.3. Consistency and Comparability                    environments. For example, the Federal
                                                 under stress and helps instill public                      The Federal Reserve uses the same set of           Reserve includes losses stemming from the
                                                 confidence in the banking system.                       models and assumptions to produce loss                default of a covered company’s largest



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                                                                       Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 240 / Friday, December 15, 2017 / Proposed Rules                                               59531

                                                 counterparty in projections of post-stress              also allows the public to make an evaluation          a specific year ensure that the outcomes of
                                                 capital for firms with substantial trading or           of the quality of the Board’s capital adequacy        the supervisory models are forward-looking,
                                                 processing and custodial operations. The                assessment.                                           consistent and comparable across firms, and
                                                 default of a company’s largest counterparty is          2.3. Phasing in of Highly Material Model              robust and stable.
                                                 more likely to occur in times of severe                 Changes                                                  Firm-specific fixed effects are variables
                                                 economic stress than in normal economic                                                                       that identify a specific firm and capture
                                                 conditions.                                                The Federal Reserve may revise its                 unobserved differences in the revenues,
                                                                                                         supervisory stress test models to include             expenses or losses among firms. Firm-
                                                 2. Supervisory Stress Test Model Policies               advances in modeling techniques,                      specific fixed effects are generally not
                                                    To be consistent with the seven principles           enhancements in response to model                     incorporated in supervisory models in order
                                                 outlined in Section 1, the Federal Reserve              validation findings, incorporation of richer          to avoid the assumption that unobserved
                                                 has established policies and procedures to              and more detailed data, public comment, and           firm-specific historical patterns will continue
                                                 guide the development, implementation, and              identification of models with improved                in the future. Exceptions to this policy are
                                                 use of all models used in supervisory stress            performance, particularly under adverse               made where appropriate. For example, if
                                                 test projections, described in more detail              economic conditions. Revisions to                     granular portfolio-level data on key drivers of
                                                 below. Each policy facilitates adherence to at          supervisory stress models may at times have           a covered company’s performance are limited
                                                 least one of the modeling principles that               a material impact on modeled outcomes.                or unavailable, and firm-specific fixed effects
                                                 govern the supervisory stress test, and in                 In order to mitigate sudden and                    are more predictive of a covered company’s
                                                 most cases facilitates adherence to several             unexpected changes to the supervisory stress          future performance than are industry-level
                                                 modeling principles.                                    test results, the Federal Reserve follows a           variables, then supervisory models may be
                                                                                                         general policy of phasing highly material             specified with firm-specific fixed effects.
                                                 2.1. Soundness in Model Design                          model changes into the supervisory stress                Models used in the supervisory stress test
                                                    During development, the Federal Reserve              test over two years. The Federal Reserve              are developed according to an industry-level
                                                 (i) subjects supervisory models to extensive            assesses whether a model change would have            approach, calibrated using data from many
                                                 review of model theory and logic and general            a highly significant impact on the projections        institutions. In adhering to an industry-level
                                                 conceptual soundness; (ii) examines and                 of losses, components of revenue, or post-            approach, the Federal Reserve models the
                                                 evaluates justifications for modeling                   stress capital ratios for covered companies. In       response of specific portfolios and
                                                 assumptions; and (iii) tests models to                  these instances, in the first year when the           instruments to variations in macroeconomic
                                                 establish the accuracy and stability of the             model change is first implemented, estimates          and financial scenario variables. In this way,
                                                 estimates and forecasts that they produce.              produced by the enhanced model are                    the Federal Reserve ensures that differences
                                                    After development, the Federal Reserve               averaged with estimates produced by the               across covered companies are driven by
                                                 continues to subject supervisory models to              model used in the previous stress test                differences in firm-specific input data, as
                                                 scrutiny during implementation to ensure                exercise. In the second and subsequent years,         opposed to differences in model parameters
                                                 that the models remain appropriate for use in           the supervisory stress test exercise will             or specifications. The industry approach to
                                                 the stress test exercise. The Federal Reserve           reflect only estimates produced by the
                                                                                                                                                               modeling is also forward-looking, consistent
                                                 monitors changes in the economic                        enhanced model. This policy contributes to
                                                 environment, the structure of covered                                                                         with Principle 1.2, as the Federal Reserve
                                                                                                         the stability of the results of the supervisory
                                                 companies and their portfolios, and the                                                                       does not assume that historical patterns will
                                                                                                         stress test, corresponding to Principle 1.5. By
                                                 structure of the stress testing exercise, if                                                                  necessarily continue into the future for
                                                                                                         implementing highly material model changes
                                                 applicable, to verify that a model in use                                                                     individual firms. By modeling a portfolio or
                                                                                                         over the course of two stress test cycles, the
                                                 continues to serve the purposes for which it                                                                  instrument’s response to changes in
                                                                                                         Federal Reserve seeks to ensure that changes
                                                 was designed. Generally, the same principles,                                                                 economic or financial conditions at the
                                                                                                         in model projections primarily reflect
                                                 rigor, and standards for evaluating the                                                                       industry level, the Federal Reserve ensures
                                                                                                         changes in underlying risk factors and
                                                 suitability of supervisory models that apply                                                                  that projected future losses are a function of
                                                                                                         scenarios, year over year.
                                                 in model development and design will apply                 Question number 2: The Federal Reserve             that portfolio or instrument’s own
                                                 in ongoing monitoring of supervisory models.            assesses individual model changes each year           characteristics, rather than the historical
                                                                                                         to determine whether these model changes              experience of the covered company. This
                                                 2.2. Disclosure of Information Related to the                                                                 policy helps to ensure that two firms with the
                                                 Supervisory Stress Test                                 will have a highly significant impact on the
                                                                                                         projections of losses, revenues, or post-stress       same portfolio receive the same results for
                                                    In general, the Board does not disclose              capital ratios for covered companies, and             that portfolio in the supervisory stress test.
                                                 firm-specific results or other information              whether these changes warrant a phase-in                 The Federal Reserve minimizes the use of
                                                 related to the supervisory stress test to               over two stress test exercises. What                  loan vintage or year-specific fixed effects
                                                 covered companies if that information is not            thresholds should the Federal Reserve use to          when estimating models and producing
                                                 also publicly disclosed. This policy promotes           determine whether model changes will have             supervisory projections. In general, these
                                                 consistent and equitable treatment of covered           a highly significant impact on projections?           types of variables are employed only when
                                                 companies by ensuring that institutions do                                                                    there are significant structural market shifts
                                                 not have access to information about the                2.4. Limiting Reliance on Past Outcomes               or other unusual factors for which
                                                 supervisory stress test that is not accessible             Models should not place undue emphasis             supervisory models cannot otherwise
                                                 to all covered companies, corresponding to              on historical outcomes in predicting future           account. Similar to the firm-specific fixed
                                                 Principle 1.3.                                          outcomes. The Federal Reserve aims to                 effects policy, and consistent with Principle
                                                    The Board publicly discloses information             produce supervisory stress test results that          1.2, this vintage indicator policy is in place
                                                 related to the supervisory stress test on a             reflect likely outcomes under the supervisory         so that projections of future performance
                                                 regular basis, instead of privately                     scenarios. The supervisory scenarios may              under stress do not incorporate assumptions
                                                 communicating this information to covered               potentially incorporate events that have not          that patterns in unmeasured factors from
                                                 companies. The Board has increased the                  occurred historically. It is not consistent with      brief historical time periods persist. For
                                                 breadth of its public disclosure since the              the purpose of a stress testing exercise to           example, the loans originated in a particular
                                                 inception of the supervisory stress test to             assume that the future will always be like the        year should not be assumed to continue to
                                                 include more information about model                    past.                                                 default at a higher rate in the future because
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                                                 changes and key risk drivers, in addition to               In order to model potential outcomes               they did so in the past.
                                                 more detail on different components of                  outside the realm of historical experience,              Question number 3: The Federal Reserve
                                                 projected net revenues and losses. Increasing           the Federal Reserve generally does not                seeks to model potential outcomes outside
                                                 public disclosure helps the public                      include variables that would capture                  the realm of historical experience, and in
                                                 understand and interpret the results of the             unobserved historical patterns in supervisory         connection with doing so, has implemented
                                                 supervisory stress test, particularly with              models. The use of industry-level models,             policies to limit its own reliance on historical
                                                 respect to the condition and capital adequacy           restricted use of firm-specific fixed effects         outcomes in model design and calibration.
                                                 of participating firms. Providing additional            (described below), and minimized use of               What other policies or methodologies would
                                                 information about the supervisory stress test           dummy variables indicating a loan vintage or          allow the Federal Reserve to incorporate



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                                                 59532                  Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 240 / Friday, December 15, 2017 / Proposed Rules

                                                 events that have not occurred historically in           realized in net income in the first quarter of         horizon, newly originated loans are assumed
                                                 supervisory stress test projections while               the projection horizon in the supervisory              to have the same risk characteristics as the
                                                 maintaining the integrity of the supervisory            stress test. The Board expects covered                 existing portfolio, where applicable, with the
                                                 stress tests?                                           companies with material trading and                    exception of loan age and delinquency status.
                                                 2.5. Treatment of Global Market Shock and               counterparty exposures to be sufficiently              These newly originated loans would be part
                                                 Largest Counterparty Default Components                 capitalized to absorb losses stemming from             of a covered company’s normal business,
                                                                                                         these exposures that could occur during                even in a stressed economic environment.
                                                    Both the global market shock and                     times of general macroeconomic stress.                 While an individual firm may assume that it
                                                 counterparty default components are                                                                            reacts to rising losses by sharply restricting
                                                 exogenous components of the supervisory                 2.6. Incorporation of Business Plan Changes
                                                                                                                                                                its lending, (e.g. by exiting a particular
                                                 stress scenarios that are independent of the               The Federal Reserve incorporates material           business line), the banking industry as a
                                                 macroeconomic and financial market                      changes in the business plans of covered               whole cannot do so without creating a
                                                 environment specified in those scenarios,               companies, including mergers, acquisitions,            ‘‘credit crunch’’ and substantially increasing
                                                 and do not affect projections of risk-weighted          and divestitures over the projection horizon,          the severity and duration of an economic
                                                 assets or balances. The global market shock,            in the supervisory stress test projections. The        downturn. The assumption that the
                                                 which specifies movements in numerous                   incorporation of business plan changes in the          magnitude of firm balance sheets will be
                                                 market factors,1 applies only to covered                supervisory stress test is a requirement of the        fixed or growing in the supervisory stress test
                                                 companies with significant trading exposure.            capital plan rule,3 and captures a risk to the         ensures that covered companies cannot
                                                 The largest counterparty default scenario               capital of covered companies. Allowing for             assume they will ‘‘shrink to health,’’ and
                                                 component applies only to covered                       the inclusion of mergers, acquisitions, and            serves the Federal Reserve’s goal of helping
                                                 companies with substantial trading or                   divestitures is forward-looking, and                   to ensure that major financial firms remain
                                                 processing and custodial operations. Though             consistent with Principle 1.2, as the Federal          sufficiently capitalized to accommodate
                                                 these stress factors may not be directly                Reserve seeks to capture material impacts on           credit demand in a severe downturn. In
                                                 correlated to macroeconomic or financial                a covered company’s post-stress capital that           addition, by precluding the need to make
                                                 assumptions, they can materially affect                 may arise from a business plan change in the           assumptions about how underwriting
                                                 covered companies’ risks. Losses from both              course of the projection horizon.                      standards might tighten or loosen during
                                                 components are therefore considered in                     The incorporation of business plan changes          times of economic stress, the Federal Reserve
                                                 addition to the estimates of losses under the           in supervisory projections is consistent with          adheres to Principle 1.3 and promotes
                                                 macroeconomic scenario.                                 the purpose of a stress testing exercise,              consistency across covered companies.
                                                    Counterparty credit risk on derivatives and          corresponding to Principle 1.7. In CCAR                   Question number 4: The Federal Reserve
                                                 repo-style activities is incorporated in                specifically, the Board evaluates whether              seeks to assess covered companies’ capital
                                                 supervisory modeling in part by assuming                covered companies have the ability to                  adequacy in times of stress while those firms
                                                 the default of the single counterparty to               complete their projected capital actions in            continue to lend. Beyond assuming that the
                                                 which the covered firm would be most                    the supervisory stress test while remaining            magnitude of firm balance sheets is fixed or
                                                 exposed in the global market shock event.2              above post-stress minimum capital and                  growing, are there other assumptions that
                                                 Requiring covered companies subject to the              leverage ratios. Business plan changes such            could be incorporated into the supervisory
                                                 largest counterparty default component to               as mergers, acquisitions, or divestitures, may         stress test that would allow the Federal
                                                 estimate and report the potential losses and            have material impacts on these firm-                   Reserve to make this assessment?
                                                 effects on capital associated with such an              projected capital actions and on the projected
                                                 instantaneous default is a simple method for            ability of a covered company to make                   2.8. Firm-Specific Overlays and Additional
                                                 capturing an important risk to capital for              planned capital distributions and maintain             Firm-Provided Data
                                                 firms with large trading and custodial or               capital ratios above regulatory minima.                   The Federal Reserve does not make firm-
                                                 processing activities. Engagement in                       A consistent methodology for modeling of            specific overlays to model results used in the
                                                 substantial trading or custodial operations             business plan changes is applied across                supervisory stress test. This policy ensures
                                                 makes the covered companies subject to the              covered companies. The data that are                   that the supervisory stress test results are
                                                 largest counterparty default scenario                   available about characteristics of assets being        determined solely by the industry-level
                                                 component particularly vulnerable to the                acquired or divested are generally limited             supervisory models and by firm-specific
                                                 default of their major counterparty or their            and less granular than other data collected by         input data. The Federal Reserve does not use
                                                 clients’ counterparty, in transactions for              the Board in the Capital Assessments and               additional input data submitted by one or
                                                 which the covered companies act as agents.              Stress Testing (FR Y–14) information                   more covered companies unless it collects
                                                 The largest counterparty default component              collection. Projections of the effects of              comparable data from all the covered
                                                 is consistent with the purpose of a stress              business plan changes may rely on less                 companies that have material exposure in a
                                                 testing exercise, as discussed in Principle 1.7.        granular information and may result in                 given area. Input data necessary to produce
                                                 The default of a covered company’s largest              simpler modeling approaches than                       supervisory stress test estimates is collected
                                                 counterparty is a salient risk in a                     supervisory projections for legacy portfolios          via the Capital Assessments and Stress
                                                 macroeconomic and financial crisis, and                 or businesses.                                         Testing (FR Y–14) information collection.
                                                 generally less likely to occur in times of                                                                     The Federal Reserve may request additional
                                                 economic stability. This approach seeks to              2.7. Credit Supply Maintenance
                                                                                                                                                                information from covered companies, but
                                                 ensure that covered companies can absorb                   The supervisory stress test incorporates the        otherwise will not incorporate additional
                                                 losses associated with the default of any               assumption that aggregate credit supply does           information provided as part of a firm’s
                                                 counterparty, in addition to losses associated          not contract during the stress period. The aim         CCAR submission or obtained through other
                                                 with adverse economic conditions, in an                 of supervisory stress testing is to assess             channels into stress test projections.
                                                 environment of economic uncertainty.                    whether firms are sufficiently capitalized to             This policy curbs the use of data only from
                                                    The full effect of the global market shock           absorb losses during times of economic                 firms that have incentives to provide it, as in
                                                 and counterparty default components is                  stress, while meeting obligations and                  cases in which additional data would
                                                                                                         continuing to lend to households and
                                                                                                                                                                support the estimation of a lower loss rate or
                                                    1 See appendix A to this part, ‘‘Policy Statement    businesses. The assumption that a balance
                                                                                                                                                                a higher revenue rate, and adheres to
                                                 on the Scenario Design Framework for Stress             sheet of constant or increasing magnitude is
                                                                                                                                                                Principle 1.3 by promoting consistency
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                                                 Testing,’’ for a detailed description of the global     maintained allows supervisors to evaluate
                                                                                                                                                                across the stress test results of covered
                                                 market shock.                                           the health of the banking sector, assuming
                                                                                                                                                                companies.
                                                    2 In addition to incorporating counterparty credit   firms continue to lend during times of stress.
                                                 risk by assuming the default of the covered                In order to implement this policy, the              2.9. Treatment of Missing or Erroneous Data
                                                 company’s largest counterparty, the Federal Reserve     Federal Reserve must make assumptions                     Missing data, or data with deficiencies
                                                 incorporates counterparty credit risk in the            about new loan balances. To predict losses
                                                 supervisory stress test by estimating mark-to-market                                                           significant enough to preclude the use of
                                                 losses, credit valuation adjustment (CVA) losses,
                                                                                                         on new originations over the planning                  supervisory models, create uncertainty
                                                 and incremental default risk (IDR) losses associated                                                           around estimates of losses or components of
                                                 with the global market shock.                             3 12   CFR 225.8(e)(2).                              revenue. If data that are direct inputs to



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                                                                       Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 240 / Friday, December 15, 2017 / Proposed Rules                                                59533

                                                 supervisory models are not provided as                  produces reviews that are consistent,                 Reserve to ensure that any issues and
                                                 required by the Capital Assessments and                 thorough, and comprehensive. Its structure            deficiencies are appropriately addressed in a
                                                 Stress Testing (FR Y–14) information                    ensures independence from the Federal                 timely and substantive manner.
                                                 collection or are reported erroneously, then            Reserve’s model development function, and               The model validation program
                                                 a conservative value will be assigned to the            its prominent role in communicating the               communicates its findings and
                                                 specific data based on all available data               state of model risk to the Board of Governors         recommendations regarding model risk to all
                                                 reported by covered companies, depending                assures its stature within the Federal Reserve.       internal stakeholders. Validators provide
                                                 on the extent of the data deficiency. If the            3.1. Structural Independence                          detailed feedback to model developers and
                                                 data deficiency is severe enough that a                                                                       provide thematic feedback or observations on
                                                 modeled estimate cannot be produced for a                  The management and staff of the internal           the overall system of models to the
                                                 portfolio segment or portfolio, then the                model validation program are structurally             management of the modeling teams. Model
                                                 Federal Reserve may assign a conservative               independent from the model development                validation feedback is also communicated to
                                                 rate (e.g., 10th or 90th percentile PPNR or             teams. Validators do not report to model              the users of supervisory model output for use
                                                 loss rate, respectively) to that segment or             developers, and vice versa. This ensures that         in their deliberations and decisions about
                                                 portfolio.                                              model validation is conducted and overseen            supervisory stress testing. In addition, the
                                                    This policy reflects a conservative                  by objective parties. Validation staff’s              Federal Reserve Board’s Director of
                                                 assumption given a lack of information                  performance criteria include an ability to            Supervision and Regulation approves all
                                                 sufficient to produce a risk-sensitive estimate         review all aspects of the models rigorously,          models used in the supervisory stress test in
                                                 of losses or revenues. This policy promotes             thoroughly, and objectively, and to provide           advance of each exercise, based on
                                                 policy 1.3 by ensuring consistent treatment             meaningful and clear feedback to model                validators’ recommendations, development
                                                 for all covered companies that report data              developers and users.                                 responses, and suggestions for risk mitigants.
                                                 deemed insufficient to produce a modeled                   In addition, a council of external academic        In several cases, models have been modified
                                                 estimate. Finally, this policy is simple and            experts provides independent advice on the            or implemented differently based on
                                                 transparent, consistent with Principle 1.4.             Federal Reserve’s process to assess models            validators’ feedback. The advisory council of
                                                                                                         used in the supervisory stress test. In               academic experts also contributes to the
                                                 2.10. Treatment of Immaterial Portfolio Data            biannual meetings with Federal Reserve                stature of the Federal Reserve’s validation
                                                    The Federal Reserve makes a distinction              officials, members of the council discuss             program, by providing an external point of
                                                 between missing or insufficient data reported           selected supervisory models, after being              view on modifications to supervisory models
                                                 by covered companies for material and                   provided with detailed model documentation            and on validation program governance.
                                                 immaterial portfolios. To limit regulatory              for those models, including some                        Ultimately, the validation program serves
                                                 burden, the Federal Reserve allows covered              confidential supervisory information. The             to inform the Board of Governors about the
                                                 companies not to report detailed loan-level or          documentation and discussions enable the              state of model risk in the overall stress testing
                                                 portfolio-level data for loan types that are not        council to assess the effectiveness of the            program, along with ongoing practices to
                                                 material as defined in the FR Y–14 reporting            models used in the supervisory stress tests           control and mitigate model risk.
                                                 instructions. In these cases, a loss rate               and of the overarching model validation
                                                 representing the median rates among covered             program.                                                By order of the Board of Governors of the
                                                 companies for whom the rate is calculated                                                                     Federal Reserve System, December 7, 2017.
                                                                                                         3.2. Technical Competence of Validation
                                                 will be applied to immaterial portfolios. This                                                                Ann E. Misback,
                                                                                                         Staff
                                                 approach is consistent across covered                                                                         Secretary of the Board.
                                                 companies, simple, and transparent,                        The model validation program is designed
                                                 promoting Principles 1.3 and 1.4.                       to provide thorough, high-quality reviews             [FR Doc. 2017–26857 Filed 12–14–17; 8:45 am]
                                                    Question number 5: Each of the modeling              that are consistent across supervisory                BILLING CODE 6210–01–P
                                                 policies described in Section 2 are consistent          models.
                                                 with at least one of the central principles of             First, the model validation program
                                                 supervisory stress test modeling described              employs technically expert staff with                 FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
                                                 herein. Are there other policies the Federal            knowledge across model types. Second,
                                                 Reserve could implement to further promote              reviews for every supervisory model follow            12 CFR Part 252
                                                 the principles of independence, forward-                the same set of review guidelines, and take
                                                 looking perspective, consistency and                    place on an ongoing basis. The model                  [Regulation YY; Docket No. OP–1588]
                                                 comparability, simplicity, robustness and               validation program is comprehensive, in the
                                                 stability, or conservativism, or that would             sense that validators assess all models               Policy Statement on the Scenario
                                                 focus on the ability to evaluate the impact of          currently in use, and expand the scope of             Design Framework for Stress Testing
                                                 severe economic stress?                                 validation beyond basic model use, and cover
                                                                                                         both model soundness and performance.                 AGENCY:  Board of Governors of the
                                                 3. Principles and Policies of Supervisory                                                                     Federal Reserve System (Board).
                                                                                                            The model validation program covers three
                                                 Model Validation                                                                                              ACTION: Proposed rule; policy statement
                                                                                                         main areas of validation: (1) Conceptual
                                                    Independent and comprehensive model                  soundness; (2) ongoing monitoring; and (3)            with request for public comment.
                                                 validation is key to the credibility of the             outcomes analysis. Validation staff evaluate
                                                 supervisory stress test. An independent unit            all aspects of model development,                     SUMMARY:   The Board is requesting
                                                 of validation staff within the Federal Reserve,         implementation, and use, including but not            public comment on amendments to its
                                                 with input from an advisory council of                  limited to theory, design, methodology, input         policy statement on the scenario design
                                                 academic experts not affiliated with the                data, testing, performance, documentation             framework for stress testing. The
                                                 Federal Reserve, ensures that stress test               standards, implementation controls
                                                 models are subject to effective challenge,                                                                    proposed amendments to the policy
                                                                                                         (including access and change controls), and
                                                 defined as critical analysis by objective,                                                                    statement would clarify when the Board
                                                                                                         code verification. Finally, the model
                                                 informed parties that can identify model                validation program seeks to balance technical         may adopt a change in the
                                                 limitations and recommend appropriate                   expertise with fresh scrutiny of supervisory          unemployment rate in the severely
                                                 changes.                                                models. In order to provide a new                     adverse scenario of less than 4
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                                                    The Federal Reserve’s supervisory model              perspective on established models and                 percentage points; institute a counter-
                                                 validation program, built upon the principles           practices, validation staff are re-allocated          cyclical guide for the change in the
                                                 of independence, technical competence, and              across models at regular intervals.                   house price index in the severely
                                                 stature, is able to subject models to effective
                                                 challenge, expanding upon supervisory                   3.3. Stature of Validation Function                   adverse scenario; and provide notice
                                                 modeling teams’ efforts to manage model risk               Through clear communication and                    that the Board plans to incorporate
                                                 and confirming that supervisory models are              participation in the model decision making            wholesale funding costs for banking
                                                 appropriate for their intended uses. The                process, the validation function has the              organizations in the scenarios. The
                                                 supervisory model validation program                    influence and stature within the Federal              Board would continue to use the policy


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Document Created: 2017-12-15 03:37:31
Document Modified: 2017-12-15 03:37:31
CategoryRegulatory Information
CollectionFederal Register
sudoc ClassAE 2.7:
GS 4.107:
AE 2.106:
PublisherOffice of the Federal Register, National Archives and Records Administration
SectionProposed Rules
ActionProposed rule; policy statement with request for public comment.
DatesComments must be received by January 22, 2018.
ContactLisa Ryu, Associate Director, (202) 263-4833, Kathleen Johnson, Assistant Director, (202) 452-3644, Joseph Cox, Supervisory Financial Analyst, (202) 452-3216, Hillel Kipnis, Senior Financial Analyst, (202) 452-2924, Aurite Werman, Financial Analyst, (202) 263-4802, Division of Supervision and Regulation; Benjamin W. McDonough, Assistant General Counsel, (202) 452-2036, or Julie Anthony, Counsel, (202) 475-6682, Legal Division, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20551. Users of Telecommunication Device for Deaf (TDD) only, call (202) 263-4869.
FR Citation82 FR 59528 
CFR AssociatedAdministrative Practice and Procedure; Banks; Banking; Federal Reserve System; Holding Companies; Nonbank Financial Companies Supervised by the Board; Reporting and Recordkeeping Requirements; Securities and Stress Testing

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