80_FR_30338 80 FR 30237 - Notice of Establishment of Housing Price Index

80 FR 30237 - Notice of Establishment of Housing Price Index

FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY

Federal Register Volume 80, Issue 101 (May 27, 2015)

Page Range30237-30246
FR Document2015-12781

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) is establishing and shall maintain a method for assessing the national average single- family house price for use in adjusting the conforming loan limits of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the ``Enterprises''). For these purposes, FHFA has considered a number of different measures, including the House Price Index maintained by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) of the Department of Housing and Urban Development before the effective date of the Federal Housing Finance Regulatory Reform Act of 2008.\1\ FHFA also considered house price indexes of the Bureau of the Census of the Department of Commerce as well as other privately-produced indexes.\2\ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Federal Register, Volume 80 Issue 101 (Wednesday, May 27, 2015)
[Federal Register Volume 80, Number 101 (Wednesday, May 27, 2015)]
[Notices]
[Pages 30237-30246]
From the Federal Register Online  [www.thefederalregister.org]
[FR Doc No: 2015-12781]


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FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY

[No. 2015-N-03]


Notice of Establishment of Housing Price Index

AGENCY: Federal Housing Finance Agency.

ACTION: Notice and Request for Input.

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SUMMARY: The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) is establishing and 
shall maintain a method for assessing the national average single-
family house price for use in adjusting the conforming loan limits of 
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the ``Enterprises''). For these purposes, 
FHFA has considered a number of different measures, including the House 
Price Index maintained by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise 
Oversight (OFHEO) of the Department of Housing and Urban Development 
before the effective date of the Federal Housing Finance Regulatory 
Reform Act of 2008.\1\ FHFA also considered house price indexes of the 
Bureau of the Census of the Department of Commerce as well as other 
privately-produced indexes.\2\
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    \1\ Division A of the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008, 
Pub. L. No 110-289, 122 Stat. 2654, 2659 (2008). Note that OFHEO was 
one of the predecessor agencies to FHFA.
    \2\ The S&P/Case-Shiller and CoreLogic house prices indexes, for 
instance, were considered.
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    FHFA intends to use the FHFA ``expanded-data'' house price index 
(HPI)--an index it publishes on a quarterly basis--to adjust the 
conforming loan limit. This Notice solicits public input. Once public 
input is reviewed, another Notice will be published describing FHFA's 
final determination.

DATES: FHFA will accept input on the Notice on or before July 27, 2015. 
For additional information, see SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION.

ADDRESSES: You may submit your input on the Notice, identified by 
``Notice No. 2015-N-03,'' by any of the following methods:
     Agency Web site: https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Contact/Pages/Request-for-Information-Form.aspx.
     Hand Delivery/Courier to: Alfred M. Pollard, General 
Counsel, Attention: Input/Notice No. 2015-N-03, Federal Housing Finance 
Agency, Constitution Center, 400 Seventh Street SW., Eighth Floor, 
Washington, DC 20024. Deliver the package to the Seventh Street 
Entrance Guard Desk, First Floor, on business days between 9 a.m. and 3 
p.m.
     U.S. Mail Service, United Parcel Service, Federal Express, 
or other commercial delivery service to: Alfred M. Pollard, General 
Counsel, Attention: Input/Notice No. 2015-N-03, Federal Housing Finance 
Agency, Constitution Center, 400 Seventh Street SW., Eighth Floor, 
Washington, DC 20024.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Andrew Leventis, Principal Economist, 
202-649-3199, [email protected], or Jamie Schwing, Associate

[[Page 30238]]

General Counsel, 202-649-3085, [email protected], (not toll-free 
numbers), Federal Housing Finance Agency, 400 Seventh Street SW., 
Washington, DC 20024.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

Table of Contents

I. Input
II. Statutory and Regulatory Background
III. House Price Index for Loan Limit Adjustments
    A. Summary
    B. Background
    1. Safety and Soundness Act Section 1322
    2. Evaluating Existing Measures of Price Changes
    i. Available Measures
    ii. Evaluation Criteria
    C. Basics of the Proposed Methodology
    D. Other Measures of Home Prices
    E. Implementation Issues--Details
    F. Empirical Estimates of Price Changes: Expanded-Data HPI vs. 
Other Measures
IV. Conclusion

I. Input

    FHFA invites input on all aspects of the Notice and will take all 
relevant input into consideration. A final Notice will be published 
after FHFA considers public feedback.
    Copies of all submissions received will be posted without change, 
including any personal information you provide such as your name, 
address, email address and phone number, on the FHFA internet Web site, 
http://www.fhfa.gov. In addition, copies of all submissions received 
will be available for examination by the public on business days 
between the hours of 10 a.m. and 3 p.m. at the Federal Housing Finance 
Agency, Constitution Center, 400 Seventh Street SW., Washington, DC 
20024. To make an appointment to inspect submissions, please call the 
Office of General Counsel at (202) 649-3804.

II. Statutory and Regulatory Background

    The Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (HERA), Public Law 
110-289, 122 Stat. 2654 (July 30, 2008), amended the Federal Housing 
Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness Act of 1992 (12 U.S.C. 4501 
et seq.) (Safety and Soundness Act) to establish FHFA as an independent 
agency of the Federal Government.\3\ Pursuant to section 1322 (12 
U.S.C. 4542) of the Safety and Soundness Act, as amended by section 
1124(d) of HERA, 122 Stat. 2693,\4\ FHFA is required to establish and 
maintain a House Price Index for use in adjusting the conforming loan 
limits of the Enterprises.\5\ A number existing metrics, including 
those identified in section 1322, could serve this purpose. Also, HERA 
sections 1124(a) and (b), 122 Stat. 2691-2692, amended sections 
302(b)(2) of the Federal National Mortgage Association Charter Act (12 
U.S.C. 1717(b)(2), and 305(a)(2) of the Federal Home Loan Mortgage 
Corporation Act (12 U.S.C. 1454(a)(2) (together, the Charter Acts), to 
specify that the baseline national loan limit should be changed 
annually by the percentage change in the established index.
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    \3\ Division A of HERA titled, the Federal Housing Finance 
Regulatory Reform Act of 2008, established FHFA to oversee the 
operations of the Federal National Mortgage Association, the Federal 
Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (collectively, Enterprises), and the 
Federal Home Loan Banks (Banks) (collectively, regulated entities). 
FHFA is to ensure that the regulated entities operate in a safe and 
sound manner including being capitalized adequately; that their 
operations foster liquid, efficient, competitive and resilient 
national housing finance markets; that they comply with the Safety 
and Soundness Act and their authorizing statutes, and with rules, 
regulations, guidelines and orders issued under those statutes; that 
they carry out their missions through activities authorized and 
consistent with the Safety and Soundness Act and their authorizing 
statutes; and that the activities and operations of the entities are 
consistent with the public interest. See 122 Stat. 2659, 2663-2664 
(2008).
    \4\ Original section 1322 was repealed by section 1121(2) of 
HERA, (122 Stat. 2689).
    \5\ Section 1322 states in relevant part that ``the Director 
shall take into consideration the monthly survey of all major 
lenders conducted by the Federal Housing Finance Agency to determine 
the national average 1-family house price, the House Price Index 
maintained by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight of 
the Department of Housing and Urban Development before the effective 
date of the Federal Housing Finance Regulatory Reform Act of 2008, 
any appropriate house price indexes of the Bureau of the Census of 
the Department of Commerce, and any other indexes or measures that 
the Director considers appropriate.''
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III. House Price Index for Loan Limit Adjustments

A. Summary

    Section 1322 of the Safety and Soundness Act requires that FHFA 
``establish and maintain a method of assessing the national average 1-
family house price for use in adjusting the conforming loan 
limitations.'' 12 U.S.C. 4542. The conforming loan limit is the maximum 
size of mortgage that the Enterprises are allowed to acquire in a given 
year. With some exceptions, the Safety and Soundness Act requires that 
FHFA annually adjust the maximum loan size by the percentage change in 
the index over the preceding year.
    After reviewing the landscape of available measures and analyzing 
candidate new methodologies, FHFA has chosen its ``expanded-data'' HPI 
for tracking average home values and adjusting the conforming loan 
limit. The index, which is already produced by FHFA on a quarterly 
basis, uses data from a number of different sources and employs the 
well-established ``repeat-transactions'' methodology for measuring 
price changes. A number of privately-produced indexes in fact use the 
same fundamental methodology, but have not been selected. The expanded-
data index is deemed to be relatively attractive because of the lengthy 
publication track record of the FHFA (and OFHEO) price indexes and the 
methodological control that production of the relied-upon index allows.
    Public input is sought on the relative merits of the selected 
index. Feedback is also desired on technical implementation matters 
addressed in this Notice.

B. Background

1. Safety and Soundness Act Section 1322
    Under section 1322 of the Safety and Soundness Act, the FHFA 
Director is required to ``establish and maintain'' a measure of average 
U.S. home prices. In doing so, the Safety and Soundness Act requires 
that FHFA ``take into consideration'' various measures of home prices 
when developing the index. The reference measures include the FHFA 
HPI,\6\ data from the Census Bureau, information from a contemplated 
FHFA survey of national lenders, and ``any other indexes or measures 
that the Director considers appropriate.'' 12 U.S.C 4542.
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    \6\ The Safety and Soundness Act describes the FHFA HPI as ``the 
House Price Index maintained by the Office of Federal Housing 
Enterprise Oversight of the Department of Housing and Urban 
Development before the effective date of the Federal Housing Finance 
Regulatory Reform Act of 2008.''
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    In the context of the Safety and Soundness Act, the purpose of the 
established index is to adjust the conforming loan limit. Specifically, 
it is used to adjust the baseline loan limit that applies in most of 
the country. This limit applies everywhere except for areas where 
median home values are high or are otherwise designated as ``high-
cost'' areas. Loan limits in high-cost areas will be addressed later in 
this Notice.
    Sections 302(b)(2) and 305(a)(2) of the Charter Acts specify that 
the baseline national loan limit should be changed annually by the 
percentage change in the established index. The change in the baseline 
limit is constrained when price declines occur, however. Specifically, 
the national loan limit is not permitted to decline when the national 
average price declines. Also, after a period of price declines, when 
the national

[[Page 30239]]

average home value finally does increase, the loan limit cannot 
increase until prices regain all of their prior losses.
    Prior to and immediately following the enactment of HERA, the 
national average home price declined significantly. FHFA's house price 
indexes and all other reliable measures of home price movements 
evidenced substantial declines. FHFA's expanded-data house price index, 
for instance, declined by more than twenty percent between the third 
quarter of 2007 and the third quarter of 2011. Given the Safety and 
Soundness Act's prohibition against declines in the baseline loan 
limit, declining U.S. home prices meant that the selection of a 
specific index for adjusting the loan limit under the Safety and 
Soundness Act was of little practical import; the baseline loan limit 
would be the same irrespective of the index used. With each year's 
publication of the conforming loan limits for the following year, FHFA 
noted this and kept the baseline loan limit the same ($417,000 for one-
unit properties in most of the country).\7\
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    \7\ The announcement for 2015, for example, can be found on 
FHFA's Web site at http://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-Announces-2015-Conforming-Loan-Limits-Unchanged-in-Most-of-the-U-S.aspx. See, in particular, the second page of the Addendum to the 
release: http://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Documents/Conforming-Loan-Limits/CLLAddendum_CY2015.pdf.
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    Housing markets have improved substantially over the last few years 
and home values are getter closer to where they were just before HERA's 
enactment. Indeed, FHFA's expanded-data house price index is within a 
few percentage points of its level in 2007.\8\ Given the rising prices, 
it is now important that FHFA formally establish the specific 
methodology it will use for tracking prices and adjusting the baseline 
loan limit.
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    \8\ As of the fourth quarter of 2014, the seasonally adjusted 
version of the index was about 7.3 percent below the 2007Q3 level.
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    It should be noted that sections 302(b)(2) and 305(a)(2) of the 
Charter Acts specify that in locations where the 115 percent of the 
local median home value is above the baseline loan limit (``high-cost'' 
areas) the local limit is set at 115 percent of the median value. In no 
case, however, can the local loan limit be more than 150 percent of the 
baseline limit. The baseline loan limit thus acts as both a ``floor'' 
on loan limits and as a determinant of a ``ceiling'' on loan limits. 
The methodology for adjusting the baseline loan limits thus plays an 
indirect role in setting limits in these areas.
    The adjustment process for setting the baseline loan limit is also 
important to certain statutorily-defined areas. Legislation enacted 
prior to HERA set out Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands 
as areas with higher loan limits.\9\ In these statutorily-defined 
areas, the local ``floor'' on loan limits is 150 percent of the 
baseline loan limit in the rest of the country. If area median home 
values are sufficiently high in these areas, the local limit can be 
even higher, as it can rise to a maximum of 150 percent of the ceiling 
in the rest of the country (which in turn is 150 of the baseline loan 
limit). Today, the highest possible loan limit for one-unit properties 
in the statutorily defined areas is $938,250 (i.e., 225 percent of the 
baseline loan limit of $417,000). The baseline loan limit establishes 
the floor and ceiling limits in these statutorily-defined areas and 
thus the index used for adjusting the baseline plays a role in 
determining limits in the statutorily-defined areas.
2. Evaluating Existing Measures of Price Changes
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    \9\ The higher limit in the U.S. Virgin Islands, for example, 
was established in PL 102-550.
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i. Available Measures
    A significant number of home price measures are available and could 
be used for adjusting the baseline conforming loan limit. Available 
metrics include:
    [ssquf] Any of FHFA's existing price indexes, including the 
purchase-only HPI, the all-transactions HPI, and the expanded-data HPI;
    [ssquf] The Census Bureau's Constant Quality House Price Index;
    [ssquf] The CoreLogic HPI;
    [ssquf] The S&P/Case-Shiller Indexes; and
    [ssquf] The National Association of Realtors' Average or Median 
Home Prices.
    The first two of these are specifically identified in section 1322. 
The other listed measures are produced by private data suppliers. When 
deciding which metric to be used for measuring price changes, FHFA 
considered all of the measures above.
    In 2010, FHFA published a Research Paper titled ``An Approach for 
Calculating Reliable State and National House Price Statistics.'' The 
paper, which is available for download on the FHFA Web site,\10\ 
described a methodology that might be used for measuring the national 
average home price. The methodology will generally produce estimates of 
average price changes that are similar to those estimated by FHFA's 
expanded-data HPI, but involves the addition of supplemental data. This 
more-complicated methodology may be considered as an option in the 
future, but is not considered here.
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    \10\ The paper, authored by Andrew Leventis, is available at: 
http://www.fhfa.gov/PolicyProgramsResearch/Research/PaperDocuments/20100930_RP_CalculatingStateNationalHousePriceStatistics_508.pdf.
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ii. Evaluation Criteria
    In evaluating various measures of home prices changes that might be 
used for section 1322, FHFA considered a number of factors. The most 
important factor was whether price changes reflected in the measure 
would correlate closely with changes in the U.S. average home price. 
The purpose of the index referenced in the Safety and Soundness Act is 
to adjust the conforming loan limit, and thus the reliable measurement 
of price changes is of the highest importance. As closely as possible, 
changes in the selected index should reflect changes in the average 
value of homes.
    Section 1322 indicates that the measure should ``assess'' average 
U.S. home prices. Whether or not the measure needs to show the actual 
level of the average U.S. home prices is of little practical import for 
the Safety and Soundness Act's purposes. The critical use of the metric 
is to measure the price change and for FHFA to adjust the loan limit 
accordingly.\11\
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    \11\ The Safety and Soundness Act implicitly recognizes that 
primacy of the change estimate by describing the measure as an index 
as opposed to merely the average value.
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    The absence of any real need to measure the level of prices is 
notable because many existing house price measures do not actually 
report statistics on the absolute level of home prices; rather, they 
report indexes that can be used for measuring changes. No average or 
median house prices are currently published for the FHFA HPI, for 
instance. Similarly, other measures (e.g. the S&P/Case-Shiller index, 
the CoreLogic index) are not generally accompanied by level estimates. 
All of these measures, despite the absence of the estimated level of 
home prices, thus can act as reasonable candidates for the index to be 
used for loan limit adjustment.
    Before the next evaluation criteria is discussed, it is important 
to briefly address the target of the index--the ``average'' price. 
Interestingly, the Safety and Soundness Act references the average 
price in the context of measuring changes in national home price and 
adjusting the baseline conforming loan limit, but references median 
home values in the setting of loan limits in high-cost areas.
    Ultimately, the practical impact of the average-median distinction 
is modest:

[[Page 30240]]

the long-term growth rates in average and median home prices are very 
similar and thus the choice of the target statistic (average vs. 
median) likely will have only a minimal impact on long-term loan 
limits. Even in the shorter term--during the recent housing bust--there 
was no dramatic difference in the measured declines for the median and 
mean U.S. prices.\12\ The index FHFA intends to use for loan limit 
adjustment tracks the geometric average U.S. home price--a measure that 
tends to correlate closely with median and average home prices.\13\
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    \12\ According to estimates from the National Association of 
Realtors' Existing Home Sales series, for instance, the decline 
between September of 2007 and September of 2011 was roughly 20.7 
percent for average prices and 16.9 percent for median prices.
    \13\ The geometric mean of N numbers is computed as the product 
of the numbers taken to the 1/N root.
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    Aside from the issue of the relevance of the statistic and the 
target (the average vs. median), the methodological transparency is 
also deemed to be a key attribute for evaluating various alternatives 
for the index. Details concerning how the statistics are constructed 
are important, as is information about methodological changes that 
might be made over time. In the landscape of available home prices, 
FHFA found vast differences in the amount of background information 
available.
    Beyond relevance and transparency, FHFA also values reliability and 
control. The selected index should have a historical ``track record'' 
to minimize the risk that the relied-upon metric would be discontinued.
    Agency production of the index also is important, not only because 
it would ensure continued publication of the important statistic, but 
also because production of the index enables the agency to make 
appropriate enhancements. The scope of available house price 
information has expanded sharply over the last several years and new 
developments may soon make more and better transactions information 
available. Agency production of the index will mean that new 
information can be added in a way that improves the precision of 
estimates, while not being disruptive to the setting of loan limits.
    Finally, cost considerations were taken into account when 
evaluating candidate measures. While use of the expanded-data HPI and a 
number of externally-produced indexes would entail no incremental cost, 
one option would be for FHFA to develop and maintain a new index (for 
example, the one considered in the 2010 FHFA Research Paper). Efforts 
spent on maintaining a new measure, which would be yet another variant 
of FHFA's already-expansive suite of available price indexes, would 
entail a substantial expenditure of resources. The benefits of any 
increased precision of the estimates would need to be weighed against 
these costs.

C. Basics of the Proposed Methodology

    FHFA intends to use the ``expanded-data'' HPI for the purpose of 
tracking average U.S. home prices as contemplated in section 1322. 
While any of a number of existing measures might produce similar 
results, FHFA's expanded-data HPI for the U.S. is found to be 
particularly attractive under the evaluation criteria discussed above.
    The index, which has been published by FHFA since August of 2011, 
is constructed using the same ``repeat-transactions'' methodology as is 
used to construct the traditional FHFA HPI. The basic approach has been 
used by FHFA and OFHEO, one of FHFA's predecessor agencies, since 1996 
when the HPI was first publicly released. The details on how the index 
is constructed are found in a technical primer available on FHFA's Web 
site.14 15
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    \14\ See Charles Calhoun, ``OFHEO House Price Indexes: HPI 
Technical Description,'' available at
     http://www.fhfa.gov/PolicyProgramsResearch/Research/PaperDocuments/1996-03_HPI_TechDescription_N508.pdf. Hereafter, this 
paper is referred to as the HPI Technical Primer.
    \15\ Other publicly-available measures, including notably the 
S&P/Case-Shiller and the CoreLogic suite of indexes, employ the same 
basic methodology, although some details concerning their 
construction are not publicly available. The methodologies used in 
forming those indexes and decisions related to the release of the 
measures are not within FHFA's control.
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    The technical elements of the methodology are not detailed in this 
Notice, but the basic statistical model was first developed in the 
1960s and was refined by Karl Case and Robert Shiller more than twenty 
years ago. The fundamental approach entails finding homes that have 
been sold two or more times in the past and calibrating a set of 
numbers--index values--to broadly reflect changes in value observed for 
such homes. Using millions of historical real estate transactions, the 
model begins by creating transaction ``pairs,'' where each pair 
reflects the price growth (or decline) that occurred for a given 
property over a specific interval of time. For example, if a 
hypothetical home was sold two times in the past--once for $100,000 in 
the first quarter of 2001 and again for $225,000 in the fourth quarter 
of 2014--then a pair would be created showing appreciation of 125 
percent between 2001Q1 and 2014Q4.\16\ Using this pair and millions of 
other pairs for other properties, the basic model entails estimating a 
regression model \17\ that ``explains'' observed price changes using 
only information about when the individual property transactions 
occurred. The statistical model attempts to explain price changes (as 
opposed to price levels), a feature that makes it less susceptible to 
certain biases when measuring overall price movements in the 
marketplace.\18\ The output of the model is a series of index values 
whose changes broadly mimic the price changes observed for the millions 
of properties in the dataset.
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    \16\ A home with three historical sales will produce two pairs. 
The first pair will reflect the price change between the first and 
second transactions and the second pair will show the change in 
selling price between the second and third transactions.
    \17\ A regression model is a well-established method for showing 
the statistical relationship between variables.
    \18\ For instance, if a large number of expensive homes transact 
in any given quarter, then the average and median transaction values 
will rise for a given area, even if there is no underlying home 
price appreciation. The repeat-transactions index, by contrast, will 
generally not reflect spurious price ``increases' in such 
situations.
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    The FHFA expanded-data HPI uses the repeat-transaction model for 
estimating price changes in individual cities, all 50 states (and 
Washington, DC), and in the U.S. as a whole. Consistent with the way 
other FHFA indexes, for example the ``purchase-only'' and ``all-
transactions'' indexes, are formed, the change in the expanded-data 
U.S. index is constructed to reflect the weighted average changes 
across the 50 states and Washington, DC. This ensures that changes in 
relative real estate volumes across states do not bias the measurement 
of the change in U.S. prices. If the expanded-data U.S. index was 
estimated by simply pooling transactions data from all states together 
and directly estimating it, the measured price change would be 
susceptible to biases when relative transaction volumes shift across 
states. In an environment in which prices are rising and transaction 
activity increases dramatically in those states with the most extreme 
price increases, for instance, the weighting ensures that the volume 
shifts do not inflate the measured price measure for the U.S. as a 
whole.\19\
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    \19\ During market downturns (when transaction volumes tend to 
shrink in areas with the most extreme price declines), the constant 
weighting approach prevents the index from reporting undersized 
price declines.
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    Although the expanded-data HPI employs the same basic methodology 
as is used for forming FHFA's two Enterprise-only datasets (the ``all-
transactions'' and ``purchase-only'' indexes), it uses slightly 
different historical transactions data. Like

[[Page 30241]]

FHFA's other measures, the expanded-data index incorporates sales price 
information for homes with Enterprise-purchased mortgages. Unlike 
FHFA's ``all-transactions'' index, however, appraisal values from 
refinance mortgages are not used in the data sample. Also, importantly, 
unlike both of the other two measures, the expanded-data indexes 
incorporate transaction prices for homes with FHA-endorsed loans and 
homes whose transactions have been recorded at various county recorder 
offices through the country. FHFA works with an outside data vendor--
currently CoreLogic--to obtain the county records data from hundreds of 
counties throughout the country.
    The addition of the two supplemental data sources (FHA and 
CoreLogic) to the Enterprise data provides for a better estimate of the 
overall change in the U.S. average home price than is available from 
the other indexes. To be sure, price changes reported in FHFA's other 
datasets will often closely resemble those reported by the expanded-
data index. However, as has been discussed in prior OFHEO and FHFA 
publications, trends in home values sometimes have been demonstrably 
different for homeowners with different types of financing.\20\ The 
expanded-data HPI is well-suited for capturing and incorporating those 
trends into its estimate of aggregate home price movements, unlike the 
other FHFA indexes.
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    \20\ See, for example, ``Recent Trends in Home Prices: 
Differences across Mortgage and Borrower Characteristics,'' August 
2008, available at http://www.fhfa.gov/PolicyProgramsResearch/Research/PaperDocuments/20080825_RP_RecentTrendsHomePrices_N508.pdf.
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    Changes in the expanded-data HPI do not perfectly measure changes 
in the average or median U.S. home prices, to be sure. As discussed in 
the technical primer that details the FHFA methodology \21\ and in the 
academic literature on the subject of price indexes,\22\ FHFA's basic 
methodology tracks the geometric average home price. In most cases, 
however, the index will very closely correlate with any index that 
would specifically track the median (and often the average) price.
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    \21\ See the HPI Technical Primer available at http://www.fhfa.gov/PolicyProgramsResearch/Research/PaperDocuments/1996-03_HPI_TechDescription_N508.pdf.
    \22\ For a lengthy discussion, see Shiller, Robert, ``Arithmetic 
Repeat Sales Price Estimators'' Journal of Housing Economics 1, pp. 
110-125, 1991.
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    In the context of the estimation of house price indexes, a robust 
debate has occurred over the last several years regarding whether 
``distressed sales'' should be included in the calibration data sample. 
Distressed sales, which include sales of bank Real Estate Owned (REO) 
properties as well as short sales,\23\ tend to have lower prices than 
other transactions. These lower prices generally result from two 
factors: poor property condition and greater-than-average seller 
motivation.
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    \23\ Short sales are transaction for which: (a) The homeowner 
was in financial distress and (b) the transaction price was an 
amount lower than the loan balance. In such situations, to avoid the 
costs associated with foreclosure, lenders allow the distressed 
homeowner to sell the property for less than the loan amount.
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    Like other FHFA indexes and house price metrics produced by many 
others, FHFA's expanded-data HPI incorporates price data from 
distressed sales. As with all transactions, the distressed sales are 
included in the calibration of the expanded-data HPI as long as the 
buyer obtained an Enterprise or FHA loan or the property is in one of 
the counties for which FHFA has licensed county recorder information.
    The primary justification for including such distress transactions 
is that they provide indications of value in situations where, without 
such data, price declines may be understated. It is well established 
that, during housing market downturns, sellers commonly pull their 
properties from the market, preferring to ``wait out'' declines rather 
than selling at a loss. In such environments, transaction volumes may 
shrink dramatically and the few observed transactions that do occur may 
show relatively limited price declines.\24\
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    \24\ Another reason for including the transactions is pragmatic: 
it is often difficult to identify distressed sales using available 
data. FHFA has done so in the past and it does produce a set of 
``distress-free'' indexes for select cities. The distress-free 
indexes take advantage of a unique dataset that aids in the 
identification of distress only in select cities, however.
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    One final note about the expanded-data HPI is important: as new 
opportunities arise for the addition of transactions data to the 
modeling dataset, FHFA may take advantage of those to improve the 
index. Since the inaugural release of the expanded-data HPI in 2011, 
the term ``expanded'' has referred to the addition of FHA and county 
recorder data to the standard Enterprise dataset. There is no reason 
that additional data sources may not be included into the calibration 
dataset in the future. For instance, transaction prices embedded within 
property appraisal data \25\ might supplement the existing data 
sources. As with all significant changes in FHFA indexes, FHFA would 
notify the public of any such data enhancements.
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    \25\ To be clear--this would not entail the inclusion of 
appraisal values, but rather property sales prices (e.g., sales 
prices for ``comparable'' properties) found in electronic appraisal 
records.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

D. Other Measures of Home Prices

    While other existing (and potential) measures had some attractive 
qualities, given the criteria used, FHFA believes that the expanded-
data HPI is the best option for the purpose of adjusting the loan 
limit.
    The data sources that the Safety and Soundness Act explicitly 
requires the Director to consider are the FHFA's ``monthly survey of 
all major lenders'' and any ``appropriate house price indexes'' 
published by the Census Bureau. Viable options for measuring 
appropriate price changes are not available from either. In the case of 
the monthly survey, the requisite data fields are currently under 
development, and therefore FHFA has not yet conducted the survey. 
Statistics from the Census Bureau are comprehensive for tracking the 
prices of new homes that are sold, but generally do not show price 
changes for existing homes. Price trends for new homes can differ 
substantially from price trends for existing homes, and thus the new 
home focus of the Census Bureau data is deemed to be a significant 
drawback in this context.
    In theory, one might track changes in the average or median U.S. 
home prices by looking at statistics published monthly by the National 
Association of Realtors (NAR). The NAR's estimates focus on prices for 
existing homes, as direct estimates of the average and median 
transactions prices are reported using data from a large number of 
local Multiple Listing Services. NAR's estimates are attractive in 
their simplicity (no statistical models are employed in their 
derivation) and in the fact that the statistics have been published 
consistently for decades. The major problem with their use, however, is 
that--like all summary statistics--they are susceptible to short-term 
biases caused by fluctuations in the types of properties that transact 
in any given quarter. If a substantial number of expensive homes 
transact in any given quarter, for instance, the reported average and 
median home values will tend to rise even if no real market 
appreciation was present. If the ``quality'' of transacting homes is 
not held constant from quarter to quarter, the resulting statistic can 
produce volatile measures and may bias estimates of price changes 
(particularly in the short run). As has been discussed at length in 
academic and practitioner literature, other indexes--for example those 
that rely on the repeat-transaction methodology (e.g., the expanded-
data

[[Page 30242]]

HPI)--are less susceptible to these biases.\26\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \26\ The repeat-transactions statistical model is sometimes 
described as producing a ``constant-quality'' index.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    U.S. house price indexes published by S&P/Case-Shiller and 
CoreLogic use the repeat-transactions approach for measuring price 
changes and thus would not be susceptible to these biases. Use of 
either of these indexes--or other external measures of house price 
movements--in the context of setting loan limits would entail 
substantial operational risks, however. The external measures do not 
generally have track records that rival the lengthy publication history 
of the FHFA HPI. Reliance on an external measure would mean that FHFA 
would be dependent on its continued publication and on the 
methodological decisions made by the producer. If the producer opted to 
discontinue publication or to make undesirable methodological changes, 
significant complications would arise, and the publication of the 
conforming loan limits ultimately could be disrupted. Separately, 
ignoring the issue of continued publication risks, details concerning 
the methodology employed in the production of external indexes are not 
always publicly available and, therefore, have less transparency than 
FHFA's indexes. The prospect that FHFA would rely on an index having 
little public descriptive material for the important function of 
setting loan limits is not appealing to the agency.

E. Implementation Issues--Details

    While it will be enlightening to compare price trends for the 
expanded-data HPI to trends for other measures, it is useful to first 
address details concerning implementation timing. In particular, this 
section describes the ``when'' and ``how'' of loan limit changes under 
the use of the expanded-data HPI.
    The Safety and Soundness Act requires that loan limits be 
``adjusted'' each year and that the newly adjusted limits apply 
beginning in January. Since the passage of HERA--and in years prior 
(when OFHEO was setting the loan limit)--annual adjustments have been 
announced in the latter part of November. Under the terms of the 
Charter Acts, adjustments are to reflect the percentage price change in 
the index over the ``most recent'' 12-month or 4-quarter period.\27\ 
Given the large price changes that occurred and the Safety and 
Soundness Act's prohibition on declines in the baseline loan limit, it 
has not been necessary for FHFA to formally designate the reference 
period: i.e., whether price changes will be measured on a 4-quarter or 
12-month basis and the specific comparison interval (e.g., July vs. 
July of the preceding year or Q3 vs. Q3).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \27\ See Charter Acts sections 302(b)(2) (12 U.S.C. 1717(b)(2) 
and 305(a)(2) (12 U.S.C. 1454(a)(2).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Given the existing publication schedule for the expanded-data HPI, 
when setting loan limits on a go-forward basis, FHFA anticipates 
measuring price changes between the third quarter and the third quarter 
of the preceding year. As always, FHFA will produce its suite of house 
price indexes (including the expanded-data HPI) in November using data 
through the most recent quarter--the third quarter. Then, using the 
measured price increase in the expanded-data HPI between the third 
quarter of the prior year and the third quarter of the present year, 
FHFA will compute the new baseline loan limit. The new loan limit will 
be announced toward the end of November at roughly the same time as the 
HPI report is published.\28\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \28\ FHFA's third quarter HPI for 2015 is set to be released on 
November 25, 2015.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The proposed focus on third quarter prices means that, in the 
current situation in which average prices are below levels prevalent 
prior to the passage of HERA, the third quarter of 2007 represents the 
relevant reference period for determining when the baseline loan limits 
can rise again. The baseline conforming loan limit was first set in 
late 2008 and, as such, the first interval for assessing price changes 
was 2007Q3 to 2008Q3. Under the expanded-data index (and other 
measures), that 2007Q3-2008Q3 change was a price decline, thus 
triggering the prescriptive terms of the Safety and Soundness Act 
requiring that prices rise to the 2007Q3 level before the baseline loan 
limit can be increased. In successive years of setting loan limits, the 
expanded-data HPI found further declines--and then a partial recovery--
in U.S. average home prices. As shown in the next section, the latest 
expanded-data index value for the U.S. (for 2014Q4) shows that prices 
are still 7.9 percent below the 2007Q3 level. When the conforming loan 
limit is set for 2016 later this year, the index will generally have to 
exceed the 2007Q3 level for there to be an increase in the baseline 
loan limit.
    One final technical note must be made about historical values of 
the expanded-data HPI. Under the basic repeat-transactions indexing 
model used for producing the index (and other repeat-transactions 
measures), all historical values of the index are unconstrained, 
meaning that they are revised in each period.\29\ Unlike other types of 
price indexes, where an index value for a given period may be initially 
revised once or twice and then will be fixed forever, the repeat-
transactions house price index produces index values that are 
constantly in flux. That is--values for all historical quarters, even 
distant quarters, are modified slightly each period to account for new 
historical data. To be sure, most values are revised only slightly 
(e.g., the index value for a quarter in the late 1990s might change 
from 175.02 to 175.04 between one quarter and the next). Changes are 
constantly made, however.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \29\ Other publicly available measures deviate somewhat from the 
basic repeat-transactions model and sometimes constrain historical 
price levels.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    FHFA's measurement of price changes for the setting of loan limits 
will use the most recently released index values as of the third 
quarter and will ignore prior vintages. For example, in setting 2016 
loan limits, FHFA will rely on the most recent time series of index 
values for comparing price levels. The 2015Q3-vintage estimates of the 
relevant historical values will be compared. To illustrate--although 
the most recent HPI publication showed that the expanded-data index 
estimate for 2007Q3 was 215.19,\30\ when determining whether prices 
have risen for loan-limit setting purposes in November, FHFA will use 
the 2007Q3 value published in November. If the 2015Q3 index value 
exceeds the index value for 2007Q3 (as determined in the 2015Q3 index 
vintage), then the baseline loan limit will be increased.\31\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \30\ This value was the seasonally adjusted index estimate for 
the U.S. published on February 26, 2015. FHFA anticipates using 
seasonally adjusted index values in evaluating price changes. 
Because all annual price comparisons are made relative to the same 
(third) quarter in prior years, however, this choice has little 
practical effect.
    \31\ Note that, as indicated earlier, the loan limit will only 
increase by the net percentage increase since 2007Q3. In general, in 
market environments where prior price declines do not need to be 
overcome, the increase percentage will be the proportionate increase 
between the third quarter of the prior year and the third quarter of 
the contemporary year.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

F. Empirical Estimates of Price Changes: Expanded-Data HPI vs. Other 
Measures

    Using the expanded-data HPI and several other commonly-cited 
measures of home prices changes, Figure 1 and Table 1 compare price 
trends calculated by the expanded-data HPI and other estimates of price 
change. Figure 1 indicates that all of the indexes report a very 
similar evolution of prices since 2007. The metrics generally show 
significant price declines between 2007 and sometime in 2011 and then a 
robust recovery. The measures show that the

[[Page 30243]]

most recent price level is still somewhat below the 2007Q3 level.
    Reconciling the small short-run differences in the price trends 
reflected in the various measures is complicated and even an in-depth 
analysis would likely conclude with much of the differences remaining 
unexplainable.\32\ In general, however, the variations are a function 
of differences in the underlying datasets, differences in the 
methodology employed, and variations in the weighting of sub-areas. 
Over the long-term, however, all of the indexes show similar patterns. 
Even the NAR median price, which is constructed using the most 
simplistic approach, trends similarly to the other measures. The NAR 
figure is notably volatile, likely a function of the fact that it is 
susceptible to certain short-term biases the repeat-transactions-based 
measures are immune to. Over the time frame shown and even over a more 
extended period, however, its evolution is similar to that of the 
others.\33\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \32\ In a series of OFHEO papers published in 2007 and 2008, 
Andrew Leventis attempted to reconcile differences between the OFHEO 
HPI and the S&P/Case-Shiller indexes. See, for instance, http://www.fhfa.gov/PolicyProgramsResearch/Research/PaperDocuments/20080115_RP_RevisitingDifferencesOFHEOSPCaseShillerHPI_N508.pdf. The 
analysis, which just focused on the indexes produced by the two 
providers, explained some but not all of the variations in measured 
price changes.
    \33\ Observers will notice that Figure 1 reports the S&P/Case-
Shiller ``20-City Composite'' index as opposed to a pure national 
measure. Although the S&P/Case-Shiller suite of indexes includes a 
``U.S.'' measure, that measure is published under a timeline that 
would make it inconvenient for use in adjusting conforming loan 
limits. In particular, the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. index is published 
quarterly and the third quarter estimate would not be available to 
FHFA until late in November. The absence of (even preliminary) 
information about price changes before the end of November would 
mean that, were FHFA to rely on it, year-ahead loan limits could not 
be published until early December. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City 
composite index is published on a monthly basis, by contrast. If 
FHFA were to rely on that measure, it could use the August-to-August 
price change estimate, which would be available in late October 
(meaning that a late-November release of loan limits would be 
feasible).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Table 1 provides estimates of the overall price deficit--the change 
in prices between 2007Q3 and the most recent data reading--for the 
various measures. As of the fourth quarter of 2014, the expanded-data 
HPI estimates that the average U.S. price was roughly 7.3 percent below 
its 2007Q3 level. This deficit is slightly below the midpoint of the 
two extreme values in the table: The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite 
(down 12.0 percent) and the FHFA purchase-only HPI (down 1.2 percent).

IV. Conclusion

    A very significant number of methodological and implementation 
options exist for satisfying section 1322. This Notice has described 
FHFA's use of the expanded-data index as the preferred option for 
annually setting loan limits under the procedure outlined (e.g., 
comparing third-quarter prices to third-quarter prices when evaluating 
the most recent year's price change). FHFA recognizes that other 
methodological and implementation decisions could be made. Given the 
material impact on the Enterprises and in light of the significant 
number of market participants affected by the level of the conforming 
loan limit, FHFA has released this Notice and Request for Input to 
ensure that public input is widely solicited.
    FHFA encourages submitters to address any theoretical or practical 
issues deemed to be important in this context. Once all submissions are 
received, they will be reviewed by FHFA staff and a final Notice will 
be published in the Federal Register. The final Notice will communicate 
FHFA's ultimate determination and may address some of the submissions 
received in response to this Notice.
    FHFA intends to publish a final determination in the Federal 
Register by the time the Enterprise 2016 conforming loan limits must be 
published (i.e., by late November 2015). As in the past, the conforming 
loan limit release will be published on FHFA's Web site.
 BILLING CODE 8070-01-P

[[Page 30244]]

[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TN27MY15.000


[[Page 30245]]


[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TN27MY15.001



[[Page 30246]]


    Dated: May 18, 2015.
Melvin L. Watt,
Director, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
[FR Doc. 2015-12781 Filed 5-26-15; 8:45 am]
 BILLING CODE 8070-01-C



                                                                              Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 101 / Wednesday, May 27, 2015 / Notices                                                    30237

                                                  required by the Paperwork Reduction                     authority for information collection is               SUMMARY:   The Federal Housing Finance
                                                  Act (PRA) of 1995 (44 U.S.C. 3501–                      contained in 47 U.S.C. 151, 154(i), and               Agency (FHFA) is establishing and shall
                                                  3520), the Federal Communications                       (j), 221(c) and 410(c).                               maintain a method for assessing the
                                                  Commission (FCC or the Commission)                         Total Annual Burden: 33,330 hours.                 national average single-family house
                                                  invites the general public and other                       Total Annual Cost: No cost.                        price for use in adjusting the
                                                  Federal agencies to take this                              Privacy Act Impact Assessment: No                  conforming loan limits of Fannie Mae
                                                  opportunity to comment on the                           impact.                                               and Freddie Mac (the ‘‘Enterprises’’).
                                                  following information collection.                          Nature and Extent of Confidentiality:              For these purposes, FHFA has
                                                  Comments are requested concerning:                      No assurance of confidentiality has been              considered a number of different
                                                  Whether the proposed collection of                      given regarding the information.                      measures, including the House Price
                                                  information is necessary for the proper                    Need and Uses: In order to determine               Index maintained by the Office of
                                                  performance of the functions of the                     which carriers are entitled to high-cost              Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight
                                                  Commission, including whether the                       loop support, rate-of-return incumbent                (OFHEO) of the Department of Housing
                                                  information shall have practical utility;               local exchange carriers (LECs) must                   and Urban Development before the
                                                  the accuracy of the Commission’s                        provide the National Exchange Carrier                 effective date of the Federal Housing
                                                  burden estimate; ways to enhance the                    Association (NECA) with the loop cost                 Finance Regulatory Reform Act of
                                                  quality, utility, and clarity of the                    and loop count data required by 47 CFR                2008.1 FHFA also considered house
                                                  information collected; ways to minimize                 54.1305 of the Commission’s rules for                 price indexes of the Bureau of the
                                                  the burden of the collection of                         each of its study areas and, if applicable,           Census of the Department of Commerce
                                                  information on the respondents,                         for each wire center (that term is                    as well as other privately-produced
                                                  including the use of automated                          defined in 47 CFR part 54). The loop                  indexes.2
                                                  collection techniques or other forms of                 cost and loop count information is to be                 FHFA intends to use the FHFA
                                                  information technology; and ways to                     filed annually with NECA by July 31st                 ‘‘expanded-data’’ house price index
                                                  further reduce the information                          of each year, and may be updated                      (HPI)—an index it publishes on a
                                                  collection burden on small business                     occasionally pursuant to 47 CFR                       quarterly basis—to adjust the
                                                  concerns with fewer than 25 employees.                  54.1306. Pursuant to section 54.1307,                 conforming loan limit. This Notice
                                                  The FCC may not conduct or sponsor a                    the information filed on July 31st of                 solicits public input. Once public input
                                                  collection of information unless it                     each year will be used to calculate                   is reviewed, another Notice will be
                                                  displays a currently valid control                      universal service support for each study              published describing FHFA’s final
                                                  number. No person shall be subject to                   area and is filed by NECA with the                    determination.
                                                  any penalty for failing to comply with                  Commission by October 1 of each year.                 DATES: FHFA will accept input on the
                                                  a collection of information subject to the              An incumbent LEC is defined as a                      Notice on or before July 27, 2015. For
                                                  PRA that does not display a valid Office                carrier that meets the definition of                  additional information, see
                                                  of Management and Budget (OMB)                          ‘‘incumbent local exchange carrier’’ in               SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION.
                                                  control number.                                         47 CFR 51.5 of the Commission’s rules.                ADDRESSES: You may submit your input
                                                  DATES: Written PRA comments should                         The reporting requirements are                     on the Notice, identified by ‘‘Notice No.
                                                  be submitted on or before July 27, 2015.                necessary to implement the                            2015–N–03,’’ by any of the following
                                                  If you anticipate that you will be                      congressional mandate for universal                   methods:
                                                  submitting comments, but find it                        service. The requirements are necessary                  • Agency Web site: https://www.fhfa.
                                                  difficult to do so within the period of                 to verify that rate-of-return LECs are                gov/AboutUs/Contact/Pages/Request-
                                                  time allowed by this notice, you should                 eligible to receive universal service                 for-Information-Form.aspx.
                                                  advise the contact listed below as soon                 support. Information filed with NECA                     • Hand Delivery/Courier to: Alfred M.
                                                  as possible.                                            pursuant to section 54.1305 is used to                Pollard, General Counsel, Attention:
                                                  ADDRESSES: Direct all PRA comments to                   calculate universal service support                   Input/Notice No. 2015–N–03, Federal
                                                  Nicole Ongele, FCC, via email PRA@                      payments to eligible carriers. Without                Housing Finance Agency, Constitution
                                                  fcc.gov and to Nicole.Ongele@fcc.gov.                   this information, NECA and USAC                       Center, 400 Seventh Street SW., Eighth
                                                  FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: For                    (Universal Service Administration                     Floor, Washington, DC 20024. Deliver
                                                  additional information about the                        Company) would not be able to                         the package to the Seventh Street
                                                  information collection, contact Nicole                  calculate such payments to eligible                   Entrance Guard Desk, First Floor, on
                                                  Ongele at (202) 418–2991.                               carriers.                                             business days between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m.
                                                     OMB Control No: 3060–0233.                           Federal Communications Commission.                       • U.S. Mail Service, United Parcel
                                                     Title: Part 54, High-Cost Loop Support                                                                     Service, Federal Express, or other
                                                                                                          Marlene H. Dortch,
                                                  Reporting to National Exchange Carrier                                                                        commercial delivery service to: Alfred
                                                  Association (NECA).                                     Secretary, Office of the Secretary.
                                                                                                                                                                M. Pollard, General Counsel, Attention:
                                                     Form Number: N/A.                                    [FR Doc. 2015–12658 Filed 5–26–15; 8:45 am]
                                                                                                                                                                Input/Notice No. 2015–N–03, Federal
                                                     Type of Review: Revision of a                        BILLING CODE 6712–01–P
                                                                                                                                                                Housing Finance Agency, Constitution
                                                  currently approved collection.                                                                                Center, 400 Seventh Street SW., Eighth
                                                     Respondents: Business or other for-
                                                                                                                                                                Floor, Washington, DC 20024.
                                                  profit.                                                 FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE
                                                     Number of Respondents: 1,095                                                                               FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
                                                                                                          AGENCY
                                                  respondents; 1,515 responses.                                                                                 Andrew Leventis, Principal Economist,
mstockstill on DSK4VPTVN1PROD with NOTICES




                                                     Estimated Time per Response: 22                      [No. 2015–N–03]                                       202–649–3199, Andrew.Leventis@
                                                  hours.                                                                                                        fhfa.gov, or Jamie Schwing, Associate
                                                     Frequency of Response: On occasion                   Notice of Establishment of Housing
                                                  reporting requirement, annual reporting                 Price Index                                             1 Division A of the Housing and Economic

                                                                                                                                                                Recovery Act of 2008, Pub. L. No 110–289, 122 Stat.
                                                  requirement and third party disclosure                  AGENCY:    Federal Housing Finance                    2654, 2659 (2008). Note that OFHEO was one of the
                                                  requirement.                                            Agency.                                               predecessor agencies to FHFA.
                                                     Obligation to Respond: Required to                                                                           2 The S&P/Case-Shiller and CoreLogic house
                                                                                                          ACTION:Notice and Request for Input.
                                                  obtain or retain benefits. Statutory                                                                          prices indexes, for instance, were considered.



                                             VerDate Sep<11>2014   16:45 May 26, 2015   Jkt 235001   PO 00000   Frm 00032   Fmt 4703   Sfmt 4703   E:\FR\FM\27MYN1.SGM   27MYN1


                                                  30238                         Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 101 / Wednesday, May 27, 2015 / Notices

                                                  General Counsel, 202–649–3085,                           Pursuant to section 1322 (12 U.S.C.                       index, which is already produced by
                                                  Jamie.Schwing@fhfa.gov, (not toll-free                   4542) of the Safety and Soundness Act,                    FHFA on a quarterly basis, uses data
                                                  numbers), Federal Housing Finance                        as amended by section 1124(d) of                          from a number of different sources and
                                                  Agency, 400 Seventh Street SW.,                          HERA, 122 Stat. 2693,4 FHFA is                            employs the well-established ‘‘repeat-
                                                  Washington, DC 20024.                                    required to establish and maintain a                      transactions’’ methodology for
                                                  SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:                               House Price Index for use in adjusting                    measuring price changes. A number of
                                                                                                           the conforming loan limits of the                         privately-produced indexes in fact use
                                                  Table of Contents                                        Enterprises.5 A number existing metrics,                  the same fundamental methodology, but
                                                  I. Input                                                 including those identified in section                     have not been selected. The expanded-
                                                  II. Statutory and Regulatory Background                  1322, could serve this purpose. Also,                     data index is deemed to be relatively
                                                  III. House Price Index for Loan Limit                    HERA sections 1124(a) and (b), 122 Stat.                  attractive because of the lengthy
                                                        Adjustments                                        2691–2692, amended sections 302(b)(2)                     publication track record of the FHFA
                                                     A. Summary                                            of the Federal National Mortgage                          (and OFHEO) price indexes and the
                                                     B. Background
                                                                                                           Association Charter Act (12 U.S.C.                        methodological control that production
                                                     1. Safety and Soundness Act Section 1322
                                                     2. Evaluating Existing Measures of Price              1717(b)(2), and 305(a)(2) of the Federal                  of the relied-upon index allows.
                                                        Changes                                            Home Loan Mortgage Corporation Act                           Public input is sought on the relative
                                                     i. Available Measures                                 (12 U.S.C. 1454(a)(2) (together, the                      merits of the selected index. Feedback is
                                                     ii. Evaluation Criteria                               Charter Acts), to specify that the                        also desired on technical
                                                     C. Basics of the Proposed Methodology                 baseline national loan limit should be                    implementation matters addressed in
                                                     D. Other Measures of Home Prices                      changed annually by the percentage                        this Notice.
                                                     E. Implementation Issues—Details                      change in the established index.
                                                     F. Empirical Estimates of Price Changes:                                                                        B. Background
                                                        Expanded-Data HPI vs. Other Measures               III. House Price Index for Loan Limit
                                                                                                                                                                     1. Safety and Soundness Act Section
                                                  IV. Conclusion                                           Adjustments
                                                                                                                                                                     1322
                                                  I. Input                                                 A. Summary                                                   Under section 1322 of the Safety and
                                                     FHFA invites input on all aspects of                     Section 1322 of the Safety and                         Soundness Act, the FHFA Director is
                                                  the Notice and will take all relevant                    Soundness Act requires that FHFA                          required to ‘‘establish and maintain’’ a
                                                  input into consideration. A final Notice                 ‘‘establish and maintain a method of                      measure of average U.S. home prices. In
                                                  will be published after FHFA considers                   assessing the national average 1-family                   doing so, the Safety and Soundness Act
                                                  public feedback.                                         house price for use in adjusting the                      requires that FHFA ‘‘take into
                                                     Copies of all submissions received                    conforming loan limitations.’’ 12 U.S.C.                  consideration’’ various measures of
                                                  will be posted without change,                           4542. The conforming loan limit is the                    home prices when developing the
                                                  including any personal information you                   maximum size of mortgage that the                         index. The reference measures include
                                                  provide such as your name, address,                      Enterprises are allowed to acquire in a                   the FHFA HPI,6 data from the Census
                                                  email address and phone number, on                       given year. With some exceptions, the                     Bureau, information from a
                                                  the FHFA internet Web site, http://                      Safety and Soundness Act requires that                    contemplated FHFA survey of national
                                                  www.fhfa.gov. In addition, copies of all                 FHFA annually adjust the maximum                          lenders, and ‘‘any other indexes or
                                                  submissions received will be available                   loan size by the percentage change in                     measures that the Director considers
                                                  for examination by the public on                         the index over the preceding year.                        appropriate.’’ 12 U.S.C 4542.
                                                  business days between the hours of 10                       After reviewing the landscape of                          In the context of the Safety and
                                                  a.m. and 3 p.m. at the Federal Housing                   available measures and analyzing                          Soundness Act, the purpose of the
                                                  Finance Agency, Constitution Center,                     candidate new methodologies, FHFA                         established index is to adjust the
                                                  400 Seventh Street SW., Washington,                      has chosen its ‘‘expanded-data’’ HPI for                  conforming loan limit. Specifically, it is
                                                  DC 20024. To make an appointment to                      tracking average home values and                          used to adjust the baseline loan limit
                                                  inspect submissions, please call the                     adjusting the conforming loan limit. The                  that applies in most of the country. This
                                                  Office of General Counsel at (202) 649–                                                                            limit applies everywhere except for
                                                  3804.                                                    efficient, competitive and resilient national housing     areas where median home values are
                                                                                                           finance markets; that they comply with the Safety         high or are otherwise designated as
                                                  II. Statutory and Regulatory                             and Soundness Act and their authorizing statutes,
                                                                                                           and with rules, regulations, guidelines and orders        ‘‘high-cost’’ areas. Loan limits in high-
                                                  Background
                                                                                                           issued under those statutes; that they carry out their    cost areas will be addressed later in this
                                                     The Housing and Economic Recovery                     missions through activities authorized and                Notice.
                                                  Act of 2008 (HERA), Public Law 110–                      consistent with the Safety and Soundness Act and             Sections 302(b)(2) and 305(a)(2) of the
                                                  289, 122 Stat. 2654 (July 30, 2008),                     their authorizing statutes; and that the activities and
                                                                                                           operations of the entities are consistent with the        Charter Acts specify that the baseline
                                                  amended the Federal Housing                              public interest. See 122 Stat. 2659, 2663–2664            national loan limit should be changed
                                                  Enterprises Financial Safety and                         (2008).                                                   annually by the percentage change in
                                                  Soundness Act of 1992 (12 U.S.C. 4501                       4 Original section 1322 was repealed by section
                                                                                                                                                                     the established index. The change in the
                                                  et seq.) (Safety and Soundness Act) to                   1121(2) of HERA, (122 Stat. 2689).
                                                                                                              5 Section 1322 states in relevant part that ‘‘the
                                                                                                                                                                     baseline limit is constrained when price
                                                  establish FHFA as an independent                                                                                   declines occur, however. Specifically,
                                                                                                           Director shall take into consideration the monthly
                                                  agency of the Federal Government.3                       survey of all major lenders conducted by the              the national loan limit is not permitted
                                                                                                           Federal Housing Finance Agency to determine the           to decline when the national average
                                                    3 Division A of HERA titled, the Federal Housing       national average 1-family house price, the House
mstockstill on DSK4VPTVN1PROD with NOTICES




                                                                                                                                                                     price declines. Also, after a period of
                                                  Finance Regulatory Reform Act of 2008, established       Price Index maintained by the Office of Federal
                                                  FHFA to oversee the operations of the Federal            Housing Enterprise Oversight of the Department of         price declines, when the national
                                                  National Mortgage Association, the Federal Home          Housing and Urban Development before the
                                                  Loan Mortgage Corporation (collectively,                 effective date of the Federal Housing Finance               6 The Safety and Soundness Act describes the

                                                  Enterprises), and the Federal Home Loan Banks            Regulatory Reform Act of 2008, any appropriate            FHFA HPI as ‘‘the House Price Index maintained by
                                                  (Banks) (collectively, regulated entities). FHFA is to   house price indexes of the Bureau of the Census of        the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight
                                                  ensure that the regulated entities operate in a safe     the Department of Commerce, and any other                 of the Department of Housing and Urban
                                                  and sound manner including being capitalized             indexes or measures that the Director considers           Development before the effective date of the Federal
                                                  adequately; that their operations foster liquid,         appropriate.’’                                            Housing Finance Regulatory Reform Act of 2008.’’



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                                                                              Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 101 / Wednesday, May 27, 2015 / Notices                                                      30239

                                                  average home value finally does                         certain statutorily-defined areas.                     estimated by FHFA’s expanded-data
                                                  increase, the loan limit cannot increase                Legislation enacted prior to HERA set                  HPI, but involves the addition of
                                                  until prices regain all of their prior                  out Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, and the U.S.                 supplemental data. This more-
                                                  losses.                                                 Virgin Islands as areas with higher loan               complicated methodology may be
                                                     Prior to and immediately following                   limits.9 In these statutorily-defined                  considered as an option in the future,
                                                  the enactment of HERA, the national                     areas, the local ‘‘floor’’ on loan limits is           but is not considered here.
                                                  average home price declined                             150 percent of the baseline loan limit in
                                                  significantly. FHFA’s house price                                                                              ii. Evaluation Criteria
                                                                                                          the rest of the country. If area median
                                                  indexes and all other reliable measures                 home values are sufficiently high in                      In evaluating various measures of
                                                  of home price movements evidenced                       these areas, the local limit can be even               home prices changes that might be used
                                                  substantial declines. FHFA’s expanded-                  higher, as it can rise to a maximum of                 for section 1322, FHFA considered a
                                                  data house price index, for instance,                   150 percent of the ceiling in the rest of              number of factors. The most important
                                                  declined by more than twenty percent                    the country (which in turn is 150 of the               factor was whether price changes
                                                  between the third quarter of 2007 and                   baseline loan limit). Today, the highest               reflected in the measure would correlate
                                                  the third quarter of 2011. Given the                    possible loan limit for one-unit                       closely with changes in the U.S. average
                                                  Safety and Soundness Act’s prohibition                  properties in the statutorily defined                  home price. The purpose of the index
                                                  against declines in the baseline loan                   areas is $938,250 (i.e., 225 percent of the            referenced in the Safety and Soundness
                                                  limit, declining U.S. home prices meant                 baseline loan limit of $417,000). The                  Act is to adjust the conforming loan
                                                  that the selection of a specific index for              baseline loan limit establishes the floor              limit, and thus the reliable measurement
                                                  adjusting the loan limit under the Safety               and ceiling limits in these statutorily-               of price changes is of the highest
                                                  and Soundness Act was of little                         defined areas and thus the index used                  importance. As closely as possible,
                                                  practical import; the baseline loan limit               for adjusting the baseline plays a role in             changes in the selected index should
                                                  would be the same irrespective of the                   determining limits in the statutorily-                 reflect changes in the average value of
                                                  index used. With each year’s                            defined areas.                                         homes.
                                                  publication of the conforming loan                                                                                Section 1322 indicates that the
                                                  limits for the following year, FHFA                     2. Evaluating Existing Measures of Price               measure should ‘‘assess’’ average U.S.
                                                  noted this and kept the baseline loan                   Changes                                                home prices. Whether or not the
                                                  limit the same ($417,000 for one-unit                   i. Available Measures                                  measure needs to show the actual level
                                                  properties in most of the country).7                                                                           of the average U.S. home prices is of
                                                                                                             A significant number of home price
                                                     Housing markets have improved                                                                               little practical import for the Safety and
                                                                                                          measures are available and could be
                                                  substantially over the last few years and                                                                      Soundness Act’s purposes. The critical
                                                                                                          used for adjusting the baseline
                                                  home values are getter closer to where                                                                         use of the metric is to measure the price
                                                                                                          conforming loan limit. Available metrics
                                                  they were just before HERA’s                                                                                   change and for FHFA to adjust the loan
                                                                                                          include:
                                                  enactment. Indeed, FHFA’s expanded-                        D Any of FHFA’s existing price                      limit accordingly.11
                                                  data house price index is within a few                                                                            The absence of any real need to
                                                                                                          indexes, including the purchase-only
                                                  percentage points of its level in 2007.8                                                                       measure the level of prices is notable
                                                                                                          HPI, the all-transactions HPI, and the
                                                  Given the rising prices, it is now                                                                             because many existing house price
                                                                                                          expanded-data HPI;
                                                  important that FHFA formally establish                     D The Census Bureau’s Constant                      measures do not actually report
                                                  the specific methodology it will use for                Quality House Price Index;                             statistics on the absolute level of home
                                                  tracking prices and adjusting the                          D The CoreLogic HPI;                                prices; rather, they report indexes that
                                                  baseline loan limit.                                       D The S&P/Case-Shiller Indexes; and                 can be used for measuring changes. No
                                                     It should be noted that sections                        D The National Association of                       average or median house prices are
                                                  302(b)(2) and 305(a)(2) of the Charter                  Realtors’ Average or Median Home                       currently published for the FHFA HPI,
                                                  Acts specify that in locations where the                Prices.                                                for instance. Similarly, other measures
                                                  115 percent of the local median home                       The first two of these are specifically             (e.g. the S&P/Case-Shiller index, the
                                                  value is above the baseline loan limit                  identified in section 1322. The other                  CoreLogic index) are not generally
                                                  (‘‘high-cost’’ areas) the local limit is set            listed measures are produced by private                accompanied by level estimates. All of
                                                  at 115 percent of the median value. In                  data suppliers. When deciding which                    these measures, despite the absence of
                                                  no case, however, can the local loan                    metric to be used for measuring price                  the estimated level of home prices, thus
                                                  limit be more than 150 percent of the                   changes, FHFA considered all of the                    can act as reasonable candidates for the
                                                  baseline limit. The baseline loan limit                 measures above.                                        index to be used for loan limit
                                                  thus acts as both a ‘‘floor’’ on loan limits               In 2010, FHFA published a Research                  adjustment.
                                                  and as a determinant of a ‘‘ceiling’’ on                Paper titled ‘‘An Approach for                            Before the next evaluation criteria is
                                                  loan limits. The methodology for                        Calculating Reliable State and National                discussed, it is important to briefly
                                                  adjusting the baseline loan limits thus                 House Price Statistics.’’ The paper,                   address the target of the index—the
                                                  plays an indirect role in setting limits in             which is available for download on the                 ‘‘average’’ price. Interestingly, the Safety
                                                  these areas.                                            FHFA Web site,10 described a                           and Soundness Act references the
                                                     The adjustment process for setting the               methodology that might be used for                     average price in the context of
                                                  baseline loan limit is also important to                measuring the national average home                    measuring changes in national home
                                                                                                          price. The methodology will generally                  price and adjusting the baseline
                                                    7 The announcement for 2015, for example, can
                                                                                                          produce estimates of average price                     conforming loan limit, but references
                                                  be found on FHFA’s Web site at http://www.fhfa.                                                                median home values in the setting of
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                                                  gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-Announces-           changes that are similar to those
                                                                                                                                                                 loan limits in high-cost areas.
                                                  2015-Conforming-Loan-Limits-Unchanged-in-Most-
                                                  of-the-U-S.aspx. See, in particular, the second page      9 The higher limit in the U.S. Virgin Islands, for      Ultimately, the practical impact of the
                                                  of the Addendum to the release: http://www.fhfa.        example, was established in PL 102–550.                average-median distinction is modest:
                                                  gov/DataTools/Downloads/Documents/Conforming-             10 The paper, authored by Andrew Leventis, is
                                                  Loan-Limits/CLLAddendum_CY2015.pdf.                     available at: http://www.fhfa.gov/PolicyPrograms         11 The Safety and Soundness Act implicitly
                                                    8 As of the fourth quarter of 2014, the seasonally    Research/Research/PaperDocuments/20100930_             recognizes that primacy of the change estimate by
                                                  adjusted version of the index was about 7.3 percent     RP_CalculatingStateNationalHousePriceStatistics_       describing the measure as an index as opposed to
                                                  below the 2007Q3 level.                                 508.pdf.                                               merely the average value.



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                                                  30240                       Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 101 / Wednesday, May 27, 2015 / Notices

                                                  the long-term growth rates in average                   would be yet another variant of FHFA’s                    of other pairs for other properties, the
                                                  and median home prices are very                         already-expansive suite of available                      basic model entails estimating a
                                                  similar and thus the choice of the target               price indexes, would entail a substantial                 regression model 17 that ‘‘explains’’
                                                  statistic (average vs. median) likely will              expenditure of resources. The benefits                    observed price changes using only
                                                  have only a minimal impact on long-                     of any increased precision of the                         information about when the individual
                                                  term loan limits. Even in the shorter                   estimates would need to be weighed                        property transactions occurred. The
                                                  term—during the recent housing bust—                    against these costs.                                      statistical model attempts to explain
                                                  there was no dramatic difference in the                                                                           price changes (as opposed to price
                                                                                                          C. Basics of the Proposed Methodology
                                                  measured declines for the median and                                                                              levels), a feature that makes it less
                                                  mean U.S. prices.12 The index FHFA                         FHFA intends to use the ‘‘expanded-                    susceptible to certain biases when
                                                  intends to use for loan limit adjustment                data’’ HPI for the purpose of tracking                    measuring overall price movements in
                                                  tracks the geometric average U.S. home                  average U.S. home prices as                               the marketplace.18 The output of the
                                                  price—a measure that tends to correlate                 contemplated in section 1322. While                       model is a series of index values whose
                                                  closely with median and average home                    any of a number of existing measures                      changes broadly mimic the price
                                                  prices.13                                               might produce similar results, FHFA’s                     changes observed for the millions of
                                                     Aside from the issue of the relevance                expanded-data HPI for the U.S. is found                   properties in the dataset.
                                                  of the statistic and the target (the                    to be particularly attractive under the                      The FHFA expanded-data HPI uses
                                                  average vs. median), the methodological                 evaluation criteria discussed above.                      the repeat-transaction model for
                                                  transparency is also deemed to be a key                    The index, which has been published                    estimating price changes in individual
                                                  attribute for evaluating various                        by FHFA since August of 2011, is                          cities, all 50 states (and Washington,
                                                  alternatives for the index. Details                     constructed using the same ‘‘repeat-                      DC), and in the U.S. as a whole.
                                                  concerning how the statistics are                       transactions’’ methodology as is used to                  Consistent with the way other FHFA
                                                  constructed are important, as is                        construct the traditional FHFA HPI. The                   indexes, for example the ‘‘purchase-
                                                  information about methodological                        basic approach has been used by FHFA                      only’’ and ‘‘all-transactions’’ indexes,
                                                  changes that might be made over time.                   and OFHEO, one of FHFA’s predecessor                      are formed, the change in the expanded-
                                                  In the landscape of available home                      agencies, since 1996 when the HPI was                     data U.S. index is constructed to reflect
                                                  prices, FHFA found vast differences in                  first publicly released. The details on                   the weighted average changes across the
                                                  the amount of background information                    how the index is constructed are found                    50 states and Washington, DC. This
                                                  available.                                              in a technical primer available on                        ensures that changes in relative real
                                                     Beyond relevance and transparency,                   FHFA’s Web site.14 15                                     estate volumes across states do not bias
                                                  FHFA also values reliability and                           The technical elements of the                          the measurement of the change in U.S.
                                                  control. The selected index should have                 methodology are not detailed in this                      prices. If the expanded-data U.S. index
                                                  a historical ‘‘track record’’ to minimize               Notice, but the basic statistical model                   was estimated by simply pooling
                                                  the risk that the relied-upon metric                    was first developed in the 1960s and                      transactions data from all states together
                                                  would be discontinued.                                  was refined by Karl Case and Robert                       and directly estimating it, the measured
                                                     Agency production of the index also                  Shiller more than twenty years ago. The                   price change would be susceptible to
                                                  is important, not only because it would                 fundamental approach entails finding                      biases when relative transaction
                                                  ensure continued publication of the                     homes that have been sold two or more                     volumes shift across states. In an
                                                  important statistic, but also because                   times in the past and calibrating a set of                environment in which prices are rising
                                                  production of the index enables the                     numbers—index values—to broadly                           and transaction activity increases
                                                  agency to make appropriate                              reflect changes in value observed for                     dramatically in those states with the
                                                  enhancements. The scope of available                    such homes. Using millions of historical                  most extreme price increases, for
                                                  house price information has expanded                    real estate transactions, the model                       instance, the weighting ensures that the
                                                  sharply over the last several years and                 begins by creating transaction ‘‘pairs,’’                 volume shifts do not inflate the
                                                  new developments may soon make more                     where each pair reflects the price                        measured price measure for the U.S. as
                                                  and better transactions information                     growth (or decline) that occurred for a                   a whole.19
                                                  available. Agency production of the                     given property over a specific interval of                   Although the expanded-data HPI
                                                  index will mean that new information                    time. For example, if a hypothetical                      employs the same basic methodology as
                                                  can be added in a way that improves the                 home was sold two times in the past—                      is used for forming FHFA’s two
                                                  precision of estimates, while not being                 once for $100,000 in the first quarter of                 Enterprise-only datasets (the ‘‘all-
                                                  disruptive to the setting of loan limits.               2001 and again for $225,000 in the                        transactions’’ and ‘‘purchase-only’’
                                                     Finally, cost considerations were                    fourth quarter of 2014—then a pair                        indexes), it uses slightly different
                                                  taken into account when evaluating                      would be created showing appreciation                     historical transactions data. Like
                                                  candidate measures. While use of the                    of 125 percent between 2001Q1 and
                                                  expanded-data HPI and a number of                       2014Q4.16 Using this pair and millions                    between the first and second transactions and the
                                                  externally-produced indexes would                                                                                 second pair will show the change in selling price
                                                                                                            14 See Charles Calhoun, ‘‘OFHEO House Price             between the second and third transactions.
                                                  entail no incremental cost, one option                                                                               17 A regression model is a well-established
                                                                                                          Indexes: HPI Technical Description,’’ available at
                                                  would be for FHFA to develop and                          http://www.fhfa.gov/PolicyProgramsResearch/             method for showing the statistical relationship
                                                  maintain a new index (for example, the                  Research/PaperDocuments/1996–03_HPI_                      between variables.
                                                  one considered in the 2010 FHFA                         TechDescription_N508.pdf. Hereafter, this paper is           18 For instance, if a large number of expensive

                                                  Research Paper). Efforts spent on                       referred to as the HPI Technical Primer.                  homes transact in any given quarter, then the
                                                                                                            15 Other publicly-available measures, including         average and median transaction values will rise for
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                                                  maintaining a new measure, which                        notably the S&P/Case-Shiller and the CoreLogic            a given area, even if there is no underlying home
                                                                                                          suite of indexes, employ the same basic                   price appreciation. The repeat-transactions index,
                                                    12 According to estimates from the National                                                                     by contrast, will generally not reflect spurious price
                                                                                                          methodology, although some details concerning
                                                  Association of Realtors’ Existing Home Sales series,    their construction are not publicly available. The        ‘‘increases’ in such situations.
                                                  for instance, the decline between September of 2007     methodologies used in forming those indexes and              19 During market downturns (when transaction
                                                  and September of 2011 was roughly 20.7 percent for      decisions related to the release of the measures are      volumes tend to shrink in areas with the most
                                                  average prices and 16.9 percent for median prices.      not within FHFA’s control.                                extreme price declines), the constant weighting
                                                    13 The geometric mean of N numbers is computed          16 A home with three historical sales will produce      approach prevents the index from reporting
                                                  as the product of the numbers taken to the 1/N root.    two pairs. The first pair will reflect the price change   undersized price declines.



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                                                                               Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 101 / Wednesday, May 27, 2015 / Notices                                               30241

                                                  FHFA’s other measures, the expanded-                    data sample. Distressed sales, which                      FHFA would notify the public of any
                                                  data index incorporates sales price                     include sales of bank Real Estate Owned                   such data enhancements.
                                                  information for homes with Enterprise-                  (REO) properties as well as short sales,23
                                                                                                                                                                    D. Other Measures of Home Prices
                                                  purchased mortgages. Unlike FHFA’s                      tend to have lower prices than other
                                                  ‘‘all-transactions’’ index, however,                    transactions. These lower prices                             While other existing (and potential)
                                                  appraisal values from refinance                         generally result from two factors: poor                   measures had some attractive qualities,
                                                  mortgages are not used in the data                      property condition and greater-than-                      given the criteria used, FHFA believes
                                                  sample. Also, importantly, unlike both                  average seller motivation.                                that the expanded-data HPI is the best
                                                  of the other two measures, the                             Like other FHFA indexes and house                      option for the purpose of adjusting the
                                                  expanded-data indexes incorporate                       price metrics produced by many others,                    loan limit.
                                                  transaction prices for homes with FHA-                  FHFA’s expanded-data HPI incorporates                        The data sources that the Safety and
                                                  endorsed loans and homes whose                          price data from distressed sales. As with                 Soundness Act explicitly requires the
                                                  transactions have been recorded at                      all transactions, the distressed sales are                Director to consider are the FHFA’s
                                                  various county recorder offices through                 included in the calibration of the                        ‘‘monthly survey of all major lenders’’
                                                  the country. FHFA works with an                         expanded-data HPI as long as the buyer                    and any ‘‘appropriate house price
                                                  outside data vendor—currently                           obtained an Enterprise or FHA loan or                     indexes’’ published by the Census
                                                  CoreLogic—to obtain the county records                  the property is in one of the counties for                Bureau. Viable options for measuring
                                                  data from hundreds of counties                          which FHFA has licensed county                            appropriate price changes are not
                                                  throughout the country.                                 recorder information.                                     available from either. In the case of the
                                                     The addition of the two supplemental                                                                           monthly survey, the requisite data fields
                                                  data sources (FHA and CoreLogic) to the                    The primary justification for
                                                                                                          including such distress transactions is                   are currently under development, and
                                                  Enterprise data provides for a better                                                                             therefore FHFA has not yet conducted
                                                  estimate of the overall change in the                   that they provide indications of value in
                                                                                                          situations where, without such data,                      the survey. Statistics from the Census
                                                  U.S. average home price than is                                                                                   Bureau are comprehensive for tracking
                                                  available from the other indexes. To be                 price declines may be understated. It is
                                                                                                          well established that, during housing                     the prices of new homes that are sold,
                                                  sure, price changes reported in FHFA’s                                                                            but generally do not show price changes
                                                  other datasets will often closely                       market downturns, sellers commonly
                                                                                                          pull their properties from the market,                    for existing homes. Price trends for new
                                                  resemble those reported by the                                                                                    homes can differ substantially from
                                                  expanded-data index. However, as has                    preferring to ‘‘wait out’’ declines rather
                                                                                                          than selling at a loss. In such                           price trends for existing homes, and
                                                  been discussed in prior OFHEO and                                                                                 thus the new home focus of the Census
                                                  FHFA publications, trends in home                       environments, transaction volumes may
                                                                                                          shrink dramatically and the few                           Bureau data is deemed to be a
                                                  values sometimes have been                                                                                        significant drawback in this context.
                                                  demonstrably different for homeowners                   observed transactions that do occur may
                                                                                                          show relatively limited price declines.24                    In theory, one might track changes in
                                                  with different types of financing.20 The                                                                          the average or median U.S. home prices
                                                  expanded-data HPI is well-suited for                       One final note about the expanded-
                                                                                                                                                                    by looking at statistics published
                                                  capturing and incorporating those                       data HPI is important: as new
                                                                                                                                                                    monthly by the National Association of
                                                  trends into its estimate of aggregate                   opportunities arise for the addition of
                                                                                                                                                                    Realtors (NAR). The NAR’s estimates
                                                  home price movements, unlike the other                  transactions data to the modeling
                                                                                                                                                                    focus on prices for existing homes, as
                                                  FHFA indexes.                                           dataset, FHFA may take advantage of
                                                                                                                                                                    direct estimates of the average and
                                                     Changes in the expanded-data HPI do                  those to improve the index. Since the
                                                                                                                                                                    median transactions prices are reported
                                                  not perfectly measure changes in the                    inaugural release of the expanded-data
                                                                                                                                                                    using data from a large number of local
                                                  average or median U.S. home prices, to                  HPI in 2011, the term ‘‘expanded’’ has
                                                                                                                                                                    Multiple Listing Services. NAR’s
                                                  be sure. As discussed in the technical                  referred to the addition of FHA and
                                                                                                                                                                    estimates are attractive in their
                                                  primer that details the FHFA                            county recorder data to the standard
                                                                                                                                                                    simplicity (no statistical models are
                                                  methodology 21 and in the academic                      Enterprise dataset. There is no reason
                                                                                                                                                                    employed in their derivation) and in the
                                                  literature on the subject of price                      that additional data sources may not be
                                                                                                                                                                    fact that the statistics have been
                                                  indexes,22 FHFA’s basic methodology                     included into the calibration dataset in
                                                                                                                                                                    published consistently for decades. The
                                                  tracks the geometric average home price.                the future. For instance, transaction
                                                                                                                                                                    major problem with their use, however,
                                                  In most cases, however, the index will                  prices embedded within property
                                                                                                                                                                    is that—like all summary statistics—
                                                  very closely correlate with any index                   appraisal data 25 might supplement the
                                                                                                                                                                    they are susceptible to short-term biases
                                                  that would specifically track the median                existing data sources. As with all
                                                                                                                                                                    caused by fluctuations in the types of
                                                  (and often the average) price.                          significant changes in FHFA indexes,
                                                                                                                                                                    properties that transact in any given
                                                     In the context of the estimation of
                                                                                                                                                                    quarter. If a substantial number of
                                                  house price indexes, a robust debate has                   23 Short sales are transaction for which: (a) The
                                                                                                                                                                    expensive homes transact in any given
                                                  occurred over the last several years                    homeowner was in financial distress and (b) the
                                                                                                          transaction price was an amount lower than the            quarter, for instance, the reported
                                                  regarding whether ‘‘distressed sales’’
                                                                                                          loan balance. In such situations, to avoid the costs      average and median home values will
                                                  should be included in the calibration                   associated with foreclosure, lenders allow the            tend to rise even if no real market
                                                                                                          distressed homeowner to sell the property for less
                                                     20 See, for example, ‘‘Recent Trends in Home         than the loan amount.
                                                                                                                                                                    appreciation was present. If the
                                                  Prices: Differences across Mortgage and Borrower           24 Another reason for including the transactions is    ‘‘quality’’ of transacting homes is not
                                                  Characteristics,’’ August 2008, available at http://    pragmatic: it is often difficult to identify distressed   held constant from quarter to quarter,
                                                  www.fhfa.gov/PolicyProgramsResearch/Research/           sales using available data. FHFA has done so in the       the resulting statistic can produce
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                                                  PaperDocuments/20080825_RP_                             past and it does produce a set of ‘‘distress-free’’
                                                  RecentTrendsHomePrices_N508.pdf.
                                                                                                                                                                    volatile measures and may bias
                                                                                                          indexes for select cities. The distress-free indexes
                                                     21 See the HPI Technical Primer available at         take advantage of a unique dataset that aids in the       estimates of price changes (particularly
                                                  http://www.fhfa.gov/PolicyProgramsResearch/             identification of distress only in select cities,         in the short run). As has been discussed
                                                  Research/PaperDocuments/1996–03_HPI_                    however.                                                  at length in academic and practitioner
                                                  TechDescription_N508.pdf.                                  25 To be clear—this would not entail the inclusion
                                                                                                                                                                    literature, other indexes—for example
                                                     22 For a lengthy discussion, see Shiller, Robert,    of appraisal values, but rather property sales prices
                                                  ‘‘Arithmetic Repeat Sales Price Estimators’’ Journal    (e.g., sales prices for ‘‘comparable’’ properties)
                                                                                                                                                                    those that rely on the repeat-transaction
                                                  of Housing Economics 1, pp. 110–125, 1991.              found in electronic appraisal records.                    methodology (e.g., the expanded-data


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                                                  30242                        Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 101 / Wednesday, May 27, 2015 / Notices

                                                  HPI)—are less susceptible to these                      designate the reference period: i.e.,                 revised in each period.29 Unlike other
                                                  biases.26                                               whether price changes will be measured                types of price indexes, where an index
                                                     U.S. house price indexes published by                on a 4-quarter or 12-month basis and the              value for a given period may be initially
                                                  S&P/Case-Shiller and CoreLogic use the                  specific comparison interval (e.g., July              revised once or twice and then will be
                                                  repeat-transactions approach for                        vs. July of the preceding year or Q3 vs.              fixed forever, the repeat-transactions
                                                  measuring price changes and thus                        Q3).                                                  house price index produces index
                                                  would not be susceptible to these biases.                  Given the existing publication                     values that are constantly in flux. That
                                                  Use of either of these indexes—or other                 schedule for the expanded-data HPI,                   is—values for all historical quarters,
                                                  external measures of house price                        when setting loan limits on a go-forward              even distant quarters, are modified
                                                  movements—in the context of setting                     basis, FHFA anticipates measuring price               slightly each period to account for new
                                                  loan limits would entail substantial                    changes between the third quarter and                 historical data. To be sure, most values
                                                  operational risks, however. The external                the third quarter of the preceding year.              are revised only slightly (e.g., the index
                                                  measures do not generally have track                    As always, FHFA will produce its suite                value for a quarter in the late 1990s
                                                  records that rival the lengthy                          of house price indexes (including the                 might change from 175.02 to 175.04
                                                  publication history of the FHFA HPI.                    expanded-data HPI) in November using                  between one quarter and the next).
                                                  Reliance on an external measure would                   data through the most recent quarter—                 Changes are constantly made, however.
                                                  mean that FHFA would be dependent                       the third quarter. Then, using the                       FHFA’s measurement of price changes
                                                  on its continued publication and on the                 measured price increase in the                        for the setting of loan limits will use the
                                                  methodological decisions made by the                    expanded-data HPI between the third                   most recently released index values as
                                                  producer. If the producer opted to                      quarter of the prior year and the third               of the third quarter and will ignore prior
                                                  discontinue publication or to make                      quarter of the present year, FHFA will                vintages. For example, in setting 2016
                                                  undesirable methodological changes,                     compute the new baseline loan limit.                  loan limits, FHFA will rely on the most
                                                  significant complications would arise,                  The new loan limit will be announced                  recent time series of index values for
                                                  and the publication of the conforming                   toward the end of November at roughly                 comparing price levels. The 2015Q3-
                                                  loan limits ultimately could be                         the same time as the HPI report is                    vintage estimates of the relevant
                                                  disrupted. Separately, ignoring the issue               published.28                                          historical values will be compared. To
                                                  of continued publication risks, details                    The proposed focus on third quarter                illustrate—although the most recent HPI
                                                  concerning the methodology employed                     prices means that, in the current                     publication showed that the expanded-
                                                  in the production of external indexes                   situation in which average prices are                 data index estimate for 2007Q3 was
                                                  are not always publicly available and,                  below levels prevalent prior to the                   215.19,30 when determining whether
                                                  therefore, have less transparency than                  passage of HERA, the third quarter of                 prices have risen for loan-limit setting
                                                  FHFA’s indexes. The prospect that                       2007 represents the relevant reference                purposes in November, FHFA will use
                                                  FHFA would rely on an index having                      period for determining when the                       the 2007Q3 value published in
                                                  little public descriptive material for the              baseline loan limits can rise again. The              November. If the 2015Q3 index value
                                                  important function of setting loan limits               baseline conforming loan limit was first              exceeds the index value for 2007Q3 (as
                                                  is not appealing to the agency.                         set in late 2008 and, as such, the first              determined in the 2015Q3 index
                                                                                                          interval for assessing price changes was              vintage), then the baseline loan limit
                                                  E. Implementation Issues—Details
                                                                                                          2007Q3 to 2008Q3. Under the                           will be increased.31
                                                     While it will be enlightening to                     expanded-data index (and other
                                                  compare price trends for the expanded-                  measures), that 2007Q3–2008Q3 change                  F. Empirical Estimates of Price Changes:
                                                  data HPI to trends for other measures, it               was a price decline, thus triggering the              Expanded-Data HPI vs. Other Measures
                                                  is useful to first address details                      prescriptive terms of the Safety and                    Using the expanded-data HPI and
                                                  concerning implementation timing. In                    Soundness Act requiring that prices rise              several other commonly-cited measures
                                                  particular, this section describes the                  to the 2007Q3 level before the baseline               of home prices changes, Figure 1 and
                                                  ‘‘when’’ and ‘‘how’’ of loan limit                      loan limit can be increased. In                       Table 1 compare price trends calculated
                                                  changes under the use of the expanded-                  successive years of setting loan limits,              by the expanded-data HPI and other
                                                  data HPI.                                               the expanded-data HPI found further                   estimates of price change. Figure 1
                                                     The Safety and Soundness Act                         declines—and then a partial recovery—                 indicates that all of the indexes report
                                                  requires that loan limits be ‘‘adjusted’’               in U.S. average home prices. As shown                 a very similar evolution of prices since
                                                  each year and that the newly adjusted                   in the next section, the latest expanded-             2007. The metrics generally show
                                                  limits apply beginning in January. Since                data index value for the U.S. (for                    significant price declines between 2007
                                                  the passage of HERA—and in years prior                  2014Q4) shows that prices are still 7.9               and sometime in 2011 and then a robust
                                                  (when OFHEO was setting the loan                        percent below the 2007Q3 level. When                  recovery. The measures show that the
                                                  limit)—annual adjustments have been                     the conforming loan limit is set for 2016
                                                  announced in the latter part of                         later this year, the index will generally                29 Other publicly available measures deviate

                                                  November. Under the terms of the                        have to exceed the 2007Q3 level for                   somewhat from the basic repeat-transactions model
                                                  Charter Acts, adjustments are to reflect                there to be an increase in the baseline
                                                                                                                                                                and sometimes constrain historical price levels.
                                                                                                                                                                   30 This value was the seasonally adjusted index
                                                  the percentage price change in the index                loan limit.                                           estimate for the U.S. published on February 26,
                                                  over the ‘‘most recent’’ 12-month or 4-                    One final technical note must be                   2015. FHFA anticipates using seasonally adjusted
                                                  quarter period.27 Given the large price                 made about historical values of the                   index values in evaluating price changes. Because
                                                  changes that occurred and the Safety                    expanded-data HPI. Under the basic                    all annual price comparisons are made relative to
                                                  and Soundness Act’s prohibition on                                                                            the same (third) quarter in prior years, however,
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                                                                                                          repeat-transactions indexing model used               this choice has little practical effect.
                                                  declines in the baseline loan limit, it has             for producing the index (and other                       31 Note that, as indicated earlier, the loan limit
                                                  not been necessary for FHFA to formally                 repeat-transactions measures), all                    will only increase by the net percentage increase
                                                                                                          historical values of the index are                    since 2007Q3. In general, in market environments
                                                    26 The repeat-transactions statistical model is                                                             where prior price declines do not need to be
                                                  sometimes described as producing a ‘‘constant-          unconstrained, meaning that they are                  overcome, the increase percentage will be the
                                                  quality’’ index.                                                                                              proportionate increase between the third quarter of
                                                    27 See Charter Acts sections 302(b)(2) (12 U.S.C.       28 FHFA’s third quarter HPI for 2015 is set to be   the prior year and the third quarter of the
                                                  1717(b)(2) and 305(a)(2) (12 U.S.C. 1454(a)(2).         released on November 25, 2015.                        contemporary year.



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                                                                               Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 101 / Wednesday, May 27, 2015 / Notices                                             30243

                                                  most recent price level is still somewhat                 Table 1 provides estimates of the                     loan limits under the procedure
                                                  below the 2007Q3 level.                                 overall price deficit—the change in                     outlined (e.g., comparing third-quarter
                                                     Reconciling the small short-run                      prices between 2007Q3 and the most                      prices to third-quarter prices when
                                                  differences in the price trends reflected               recent data reading—for the various                     evaluating the most recent year’s price
                                                  in the various measures is complicated                  measures. As of the fourth quarter of                   change). FHFA recognizes that other
                                                  and even an in-depth analysis would                     2014, the expanded-data HPI estimates                   methodological and implementation
                                                  likely conclude with much of the                        that the average U.S. price was roughly                 decisions could be made. Given the
                                                  differences remaining unexplainable.32                  7.3 percent below its 2007Q3 level. This                material impact on the Enterprises and
                                                  In general, however, the variations are a               deficit is slightly below the midpoint of               in light of the significant number of
                                                  function of differences in the underlying               the two extreme values in the table: The
                                                                                                                                                                  market participants affected by the level
                                                  datasets, differences in the methodology                S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite
                                                  employed, and variations in the                                                                                 of the conforming loan limit, FHFA has
                                                                                                          (down 12.0 percent) and the FHFA
                                                  weighting of sub-areas. Over the long-                                                                          released this Notice and Request for
                                                                                                          purchase-only HPI (down 1.2 percent).
                                                  term, however, all of the indexes show                                                                          Input to ensure that public input is
                                                  similar patterns. Even the NAR median                   IV. Conclusion                                          widely solicited.
                                                  price, which is constructed using the                     A very significant number of                             FHFA encourages submitters to
                                                  most simplistic approach, trends                        methodological and implementation                       address any theoretical or practical
                                                  similarly to the other measures. The                    options exist for satisfying section 1322.              issues deemed to be important in this
                                                  NAR figure is notably volatile, likely a                This Notice has described FHFA’s use of                 context. Once all submissions are
                                                  function of the fact that it is susceptible             the expanded-data index as the                          received, they will be reviewed by
                                                  to certain short-term biases the repeat-                preferred option for annually setting                   FHFA staff and a final Notice will be
                                                  transactions-based measures are                                                                                 published in the Federal Register. The
                                                  immune to. Over the time frame shown                    opposed to a pure national measure. Although the
                                                                                                                                                                  final Notice will communicate FHFA’s
                                                  and even over a more extended period,                   S&P/Case-Shiller suite of indexes includes a ‘‘U.S.’’
                                                                                                          measure, that measure is published under a              ultimate determination and may address
                                                  however, its evolution is similar to that               timeline that would make it inconvenient for use        some of the submissions received in
                                                  of the others.33                                        in adjusting conforming loan limits. In particular,
                                                                                                          the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. index is published
                                                                                                                                                                  response to this Notice.
                                                    32 In a series of OFHEO papers published in 2007      quarterly and the third quarter estimate would not         FHFA intends to publish a final
                                                  and 2008, Andrew Leventis attempted to reconcile        be available to FHFA until late in November. The
                                                                                                          absence of (even preliminary) information about
                                                                                                                                                                  determination in the Federal Register
                                                  differences between the OFHEO HPI and the S&P/
                                                  Case-Shiller indexes. See, for instance, http://        price changes before the end of November would          by the time the Enterprise 2016
                                                  www.fhfa.gov/PolicyProgramsResearch/Research/           mean that, were FHFA to rely on it, year-ahead loan     conforming loan limits must be
                                                  PaperDocuments/20080115_RP_                             limits could not be published until early December.     published (i.e., by late November 2015).
                                                  RevisitingDifferencesOFHEOSPCaseShillerHPI_             The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City composite index is
                                                  N508.pdf. The analysis, which just focused on the       published on a monthly basis, by contrast. If FHFA      As in the past, the conforming loan limit
                                                  indexes produced by the two providers, explained        were to rely on that measure, it could use the          release will be published on FHFA’s
                                                  some but not all of the variations in measured price    August-to-August price change estimate, which           Web site.
                                                  changes.                                                would be available in late October (meaning that a
                                                                                                                                                                  BILLING CODE 8070–01–P
                                                    33 Observers will notice that Figure 1 reports the    late-November release of loan limits would be
                                                  S&P/Case-Shiller ‘‘20-City Composite’’ index as         feasible).
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                    30244
16:45 May 26, 2015




                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 101 / Wednesday, May 27, 2015 / Notices
                                         120
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                                                                                                            1 '<a.uutuu   Association of Realtors :Median Price
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                                             90
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27MYN1




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                                                     z                          z                   z       f-t..              z       f-t..         z    f-t..   z    f-t..          z      f-t..   z
                                         Note: For                     of comoarison. ail indexes                                              100        2007




EN27MY15.000</GPH>


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                                                                     Table 1: Comparison of House Price Changes across Various Measures
16:45 May 26, 2015




                                                                                            U.S. Indexes (unless otherwise denoted)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 101 / Wednesday, May 27, 2015 / Notices
                                                                                   FHFA Expanded-Data               FHFA HPI           Core logic HPI       S&P/Case-Shiller 20-                           4
                                                                                                                                                                                            NAR Median
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                                                                                       HPI (Seasonally          (Purchase-Only,        (Single-Family          City Composite
                                                                                                      1            Seasonally                         2                             3
                                                                                          Adjusted)                                     Combined)          (Seasonally Adjusted)
                                                                                                                               1
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                                                                                                                   Adjusted)
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                            Change over Latest 12 Months
                                                                                              6.0%                     5.4%                  5.9%                    5.0%                         7.8%
                            (or Four Quarters)
Sfmt 4725




                            Aggregate Change
                                                                                             -7.3%                    -1.2%                 -5.1%                   -12.0%                       -5.6%
                            (August/Q3 2007- Latest Period)
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                            Notes:
27MYN1




                               1
                                   -   FHFA Indexes are ava i I able for down I oa d at www.fhfa .gov. The expanded-data series is a quarterly index, whi I e the purchase-only series reported is a month I y
                           series.
                               2
                                   -   The "Single-Family Combined (SFC)" index, which incorporates data both from unattached and attached properties, is used here. Data are ava i I able for down I oa d
                            at http://www.corel ogi c .com/a bout-us/resea rchtrends/home-pri ce-i ndex-report.as px#.VQHqto7F98E.
                               3
                                   -   TheS&P/Case-Shiller data can be downloaded at http://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller.
                               4
                                   -   The figure reported is from the National Association of Realtors (NAR's) Existing-HomeSales series--in particular, the median home value. NARdata can be found
                            on I i neat http://www.rea Itor .org/topi cs/exis ti ng-home-sa I es.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                 30245
EN27MY15.001</GPH>


                                                  30246                       Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 101 / Wednesday, May 27, 2015 / Notices

                                                    Dated: May 18, 2015.                                  Analyst (202/452–3959); Anjana Ravi,                  SameDay Service, the Reserve Banks
                                                  Melvin L. Watt,                                         Financial Services Analyst (202/530–                  charge participating ODFIs a per-item
                                                  Director, Federal Housing Finance Agency.               6286); or Samantha Pelosi, Manager                    surcharge on the normal ACH
                                                  [FR Doc. 2015–12781 Filed 5–26–15; 8:45 am]             (202/530–6292), Division of Reserve                   processing fee and provide RDFIs a
                                                  BILLING CODE 8070–01–C
                                                                                                          Bank Operations and Payment Systems;                  discount on the normal ACH processing
                                                                                                          for users of Telecommunication Devices                fee for receipt of forward items.4 There
                                                                                                          for the Deaf (TDD) only, contact 202/                 is no fee paid by ODFIs to RDFIs.5
                                                                                                          263–4869.                                                In the five years since its
                                                  FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
                                                                                                          SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:                            introduction, the FedACH SameDay
                                                  [Docket No. OP–1515]                                                                                          Service has experienced limited
                                                                                                          I. Background                                         adoption; fewer than 100 depository
                                                  Enhancements to Federal Reserve                            The ACH network serves as a                        institutions are currently using the
                                                  Bank Same-Day ACH Service, Request                      ubiquitous, nationwide mechanism for                  service. A number of factors may
                                                  for Comments                                            processing batch-based credit and debit               account for this. RDFIs typically need to
                                                     The Board of Governors (Board) is                    transfers electronically. The private                 upgrade internal processing capabilities
                                                  requesting comment on enhancements                      sector and the Federal Reserve jointly                to post same-day transactions. ODFIs
                                                  that the Federal Reserve Banks (Reserve                 developed the ACH network as an                       may be able to realize value from the
                                                  Banks) are considering to their current                 electronic alternative to checks, the                 service through enhanced ACH product
                                                  same-day automated clearing house                       growth of which in the late 1960s and                 offerings, such as emergency bill pay,
                                                  (ACH) service. The enhancements                         early 1970s was creating operational                  although these services may be
                                                  would require receiving depository                      and cost burdens. Initially used for                  unappealing to originators because of
                                                  financial institutions (RDFIs) to                       government payments and recurring                     low RDFI participation and
                                                  participate in the service and originating              payments such as payroll                              corresponding limited receiver reach.
                                                  depository financial institutions (ODFIs)               disbursements, the ACH network
                                                                                                          evolved with user needs and now                       B. 2011 NACHA Same-Day ACH
                                                  to pay a fee to RDFIs for each same-day                                                                       Proposal
                                                  ACH forward transaction. The Board                      facilitates many types of transactions.
                                                  believes that these changes may have a                  The time it takes to settle transactions,                In 2011, NACHA identified faster and
                                                  significant longer-run effect on the                    however, has not changed materially                   more flexible ACH clearing and
                                                  nation’s payment system. Interested                     since next-day settlement was                         settlement capabilities as important to
                                                  persons may express their views in                      introduced nearly four decades ago.1                  the long-term viability of the ACH
                                                  writing to the Board, by any of the                        NACHA, whose membership consists                   network, and proposed creation of a
                                                  methods indicated below. Comments                       of insured financial institutions and                 network-wide, same-day framework
                                                  must be received no later than July 2,                  regional payment associations,                        called Expedited Processing and
                                                  2015.                                                   establishes network-wide ACH rules                    Settlement (EPS). Through amendments
                                                                                                          through its Operating Rules &                         to NACHA’s Operating Rules &
                                                  ADDRESSES: You may submit comments,                     Guidelines. As an ACH operator, the                   Guidelines, EPS would have required
                                                  identified by Docket No. OP–1515 by                     Reserve Banks, through Operating                      RDFIs to credit a receiver’s account by
                                                  any of the following methods:                           Circular 4, incorporate NACHA’s                       the end of the RDFI’s processing day
                                                     • Agency Web site: http://                           Operating Rules & Guidelines as rules                 when an originator properly specified
                                                  www.federalreserve.gov. Follow the                      that govern clearing and settlement of                same-day processing.6 EPS failed to
                                                  instructions for submitting comments at                 commercial ACH items by the Reserve                   receive the number of votes required for
                                                  http://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/                     Banks, except for those provisions                    adoption under NACHA voting rules.
                                                  foia/proposedregs.aspx.                                 specifically excluded in the Operating                According to NACHA, the proposal
                                                     • Email: regs.comments@                              Circular.2                                            failed because it provided insufficient
                                                  federalreserve.gov. Include the docket                                                                        value to originators, caused uncertainty
                                                  number in the subject line of the                       A. Current Federal Reserve Same-Day
                                                                                                          ACH Services                                          around funds availability, and created
                                                  message.                                                                                                      significant implementation costs for
                                                     • FAX: (202) 452–3819 or (202) 452–                    To address growing market demand
                                                  3102.                                                   for faster, intraday ACH processing and               Transactions (IAT), Check Truncated Entry (TRC),
                                                     • Mail: Robert deV. Frierson,                        settlement, the Reserve Banks began                   and Check Truncated Entries Exchange (TRX).
                                                  Secretary, Board of Governors of the                    offering an optional FedACH® SameDay                  Forward items may be sent between 2:15 a.m. and
                                                  Federal Reserve System, 20th Street and                 Service (FedACH SameDay Service) to                   2:00 p.m. with settlement at 5:00 p.m. Returns of
                                                  Constitution Avenue NW., Washington,                                                                          eligible forward items may be sent between 2:00
                                                                                                          Reserve Bank ACH customers in 2010.                   p.m. and 4:30 p.m. with settlement at 5:30 p.m. All
                                                  DC 20551.                                               The service allows ODFI participants to               times in this notice are Eastern Time unless
                                                     All public comments are available on                 originate same-day payments to all RDFI               otherwise noted.
                                                  the Board’s Web site at http://                         participants that agree to accept such
                                                                                                                                                                   4 The per-item forward surcharge ranges from

                                                  www.federalreserve.gov/apps/foia/                       payments.3 As part of the FedACH
                                                                                                                                                                $.003 to $.0035, and the per-item discount is
                                                  proposedregs.aspx as submitted, except                                                                        $.0025.
                                                                                                                                                                   5 Additional information on the FedACH
                                                  as necessary for technical reasons.                        1 ACH transactions using the Federal Reserve
                                                                                                                                                                SameDay Service is available at https://
                                                  Accordingly, your comments will not be                  Banks’ current same-day service and some              www.frbservices.org/serviceofferings/fedach/
                                                  edited to remove any identifying or                     transactions conducted outside of the traditional     sameday_service.html.
                                                  contact information. Public comments                    ACH network, such as ‘‘on us’’ transactions in           6 Originators would have been required to specify
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                                                                                                          which the originator and receiver both have           same-day processing in compliance with EPS, ODFI
                                                  may also be viewed electronically or in                 accounts at the same bank, or proprietary ‘‘on we’’   deadlines, and ACH operator requirements. NACHA
                                                  paper in Room 3515, 1801 K Street NW.                   networks between financial institutions, settle in    proposed a single submission deadline of 2:00 p.m.
                                                  (between 18th and 19th Street NW.),                     less than one day.                                    for all same-day payments, excluded IATs, and
                                                                                                             2 Operating Circular 4, Section 1.4, https://
                                                  Washington, DC 20006 between 9:00                                                                             limited transaction amounts to $25,000 or less. The
                                                                                                          www.frbservices.org/files/regulations/pdf/            requirement that RDFIs credit a receiver’s account
                                                  a.m. and 5:00 p.m. on weekdays.                         operating_circular_4_11042013.pdf.                    by the end of the RDFI’s processing day would have
                                                  FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Ian                       3 The service accommodates all non-government      been satisfied as long as the receiver’s account was
                                                  C.B. Spear, Senior Financial Services                   ACH credits and debits except International ACH       credited ‘‘as of’’ the settlement date.



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Document Created: 2015-12-15 15:35:35
Document Modified: 2015-12-15 15:35:35
CategoryRegulatory Information
CollectionFederal Register
sudoc ClassAE 2.7:
GS 4.107:
AE 2.106:
PublisherOffice of the Federal Register, National Archives and Records Administration
SectionNotices
ActionNotice and Request for Input.
DatesFHFA will accept input on the Notice on or before July 27, 2015. For additional information, see SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION.
ContactAndrew Leventis, Principal Economist, 202-649-3199, [email protected], or Jamie Schwing, Associate General Counsel, 202-649-3085, [email protected], (not toll-free numbers), Federal Housing Finance Agency, 400 Seventh Street SW., Washington, DC 20024.
FR Citation80 FR 30237 

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