80 FR 42810 - Dollar Tree, Inc. and Family Dollar Stores, Inc.; Analysis of Proposed Consent Orders To Aid Public Comment
FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION Federal Register Volume 80, Issue 138 (July 20, 2015)
Federal Register Volume 80, Issue 138 (July 20, 2015)
| Page Range | 42810-42819 | |
| FR Document | 2015-17767 |
[Federal Register Volume 80, Number 138 (Monday, July 20, 2015)] [Notices] [Pages 42810-42819] From the Federal Register Online [www.thefederalregister.org] [FR Doc No: 2015-17767] ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION [File No. 141 0207] Dollar Tree, Inc. and Family Dollar Stores, Inc.; Analysis of Proposed Consent Orders To Aid Public Comment AGENCY: Federal Trade Commission. ACTION: Proposed consent agreement. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- SUMMARY: The consent agreement in this matter settles alleged violations of federal law prohibiting unfair methods of competition. The attached Analysis to Aid Public Comment describes both the allegations in the draft complaint and the terms of the consent orders--embodied in the consent agreement--that would settle these allegations. DATES: Comments must be received on or before August 3, 2015. ADDRESSES: Interested parties may file a comment at https://ftcpublic.commentworks.com/ftc/dollartreeconsent online or on paper, by following the instructions in the Request for Comment part of the SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION section below. Write ``Dollar Tree, Inc. and Family Dollar Stores, Inc.--Consent Agreement; File No. 141-0207'' on your comment and file your comment online at https://ftcpublic.commentworks.com/ftc/dollartreeconsent by following the instructions on the web-based form. If you prefer to file your comment on paper, write ``Dollar Tree, Inc. and Family Dollar Stores, Inc.-- Consent Agreement; File No. 141-0207'' on your comment and on the envelope, and mail your comment to the following address: Federal Trade Commission, Office of the Secretary, 600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW., Suite CC-5610 (Annex D), Washington, DC 20580, or deliver your comment to the following address: Federal Trade Commission, Office of the Secretary, Constitution Center, 400 7th Street SW., 5th Floor, Suite 5610 (Annex D), Washington, DC 20024. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Sean Pugh, Bureau of Competition, (202-326-3201), 600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW., Washington, DC 20580. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Pursuant to Section 6(f) of the Federal Trade Commission Act, 15 U.S.C. 46(f), and FTC Rule 2.34, 16 CFR 2.34, notice is hereby given that the above-captioned consent agreement containing consent orders to cease and desist, having been filed with and accepted, subject to final approval, by the Commission, has been placed on the public record for a period of thirty (30) days. The following Analysis to Aid Public Comment describes the terms of the consent agreement, and the allegations in the complaint. An electronic copy of the full text of the consent agreement package can be obtained from the FTC Home Page (for July 2, 2015), on the World Wide Web, at http://www.ftc.gov/os/actions.shtm. You can file a comment online or on paper. For the Commission to consider your comment, we must receive it on or before August 3, 2015. Write ``Dollar Tree, Inc. and Family Dollar Stores, Inc.--Consent Agreement; File No. 141-0207'' on your comment. Your comment--including your name and your state--will be placed on the public record of this proceeding, including, to the extent practicable, on the public Commission Web site, at http://www.ftc.gov/os/publiccomments.shtm. As a matter of discretion, the Commission tries to remove individuals' home contact information from comments before placing them on the Commission Web site. Because your comment will be made public, you are solely responsible for making sure that your comment does not include any sensitive personal information, like anyone's Social Security number, date of birth, driver's license number or other state identification number or foreign country equivalent, passport number, financial account number, or credit or debit card number. You are also solely responsible for making sure that your comment does not include any sensitive health information, like medical records or other individually identifiable health information. In addition, do not include any ``[t]rade secret or any commercial or financial information which . . . is privileged or confidential,'' as discussed in Section 6(f) of the FTC Act, 15 U.S.C. Sec. 46(f), and FTC Rule 4.10(a)(2), 16 CFR Sec. 4.10(a)(2). In particular, do not include competitively sensitive information such as costs, sales statistics, inventories, formulas, patterns, devices, manufacturing processes, or customer names. If you want the Commission to give your comment confidential treatment, you must file it in paper form, with a request for confidential treatment, and you have to follow the procedure explained in FTC Rule 4.9(c), 16 CFR Sec. 4.9(c).\1\ Your comment will be kept confidential only if the FTC General Counsel, in his or her sole discretion, grants your request in accordance with the law and the public interest. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \1\ In particular, the written request for confidential treatment that accompanies the comment must include the factual and legal basis for the request, and must identify the specific portions of the comment to be withheld from the public record. See FTC Rule 4.9(c), 16 CFR Sec. 4.9(c). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Postal mail addressed to the Commission is subject to delay due to heightened security screening. As a result, we encourage you to submit your comments online. To make sure that the Commission considers your online comment, you must file it at https://ftcpublic.commentworks.com/ftc/dollartreeconsent by following the instructions on the web-based form. If this Notice appears at http://www.regulations.gov/#!home, you also may file a comment through that Web site. If you file your comment on paper, write ``Dollar Tree, Inc. and Family Dollar Stores, Inc.--Consent Agreement; File No. 141-0207'' on your comment and on the envelope, and mail your comment to the following address: Federal Trade Commission, Office of the Secretary, 600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW., Suite CC-5610 (Annex D), Washington, DC 20580, or deliver your comment to the following address: Federal Trade Commission, Office of the Secretary, Constitution Center, 400 7th Street SW., 5th Floor, Suite 5610 (Annex D), Washington, DC 20024. If possible, submit your paper comment to the Commission by courier or overnight service. Visit the Commission Web site at http://www.ftc.gov to read this Notice and the news release describing it. The FTC Act and other laws that the [[Page 42811]] Commission administers permit the collection of public comments to consider and use in this proceeding as appropriate. The Commission will consider all timely and responsive public comments that it receives on or before August 3, 2015. For information on the Commission's privacy policy, including routine uses permitted by the Privacy Act, see http://www.ftc.gov/ftc/privacy.htm. Analysis of Agreement Containing Consent Orders To Aid Public Comment I. Introduction and Background The Federal Trade Commission (``Commission'') has accepted for public comment, subject to final approval, an Agreement Containing Consent Orders (``Consent Order'') from Dollar Tree, Inc. (``Dollar Tree'') and Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (``Family Dollar''), (collectively, the ``Respondents''). On July 27, 2014, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar entered into an agreement whereby Dollar Tree would acquire Family Dollar for approximately $9.2 billion (the ``Acquisition''). The purpose of the proposed Consent Order is to remedy the anticompetitive effects that otherwise would result from Dollar Tree's acquisition of Family Dollar. Under the terms of the proposed Consent Order, Respondents are required to divest 330 stores in local geographic markets (collectively, the ``relevant markets'') in 35 states to the Commission-approved buyer. The divestitures must be completed within 150 days from the date of the Acquisition. The Commission and Respondents have agreed to an Order to Maintain Assets to maintain the viability of Respondents' assets until they are transferred to the Commission-approved buyer. The proposed Consent Order has been placed on the public record for 30 days to solicit comments from interested persons. Comments received during this period will become part of the public record. After 30 days, the Commission again will review the proposed Consent Order and any comments received, and decide whether the Consent Order should be withdrawn, modified, or made final. The Commission's Complaint alleges that the Acquisition, if consummated, would violate Section 7 of the Clayton Act, as amended, 15 U.S.C. Sec. 18, and Section 5 of the Federal Trade Commission Act, as amended, 15 U.S.C. Sec. 45, by removing an actual, direct, and substantial competitor in localized geographic markets in 222 cities nationwide.\2\ The elimination of this competition would result in significant competitive harm; specifically the Acquisition will allow the combined entity to increase prices unilaterally above competitive levels. Similarly, absent a remedy, there is significant risk that the merged firm may decrease the quality and service aspects of its stores. The proposed Consent Order would remedy the alleged violations by requiring divestitures to replace competition that otherwise would be lost in these markets because of the Acquisition. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \2\ The list of cities in which stores will be divested is attached as Appendix A. The list of stores to be divested is attached to the Decision and Order as Schedule A. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- II. The Respondents As of January 31, 2015, Dollar Tree operated 5,157 discount general merchandise retail stores across the United States under the Dollar Tree and Deals banners. Presently, Dollar Tree banner stores are located in 48 states and the District of Columbia, while Deals banner stores are currently located in 18 states and the District of Columbia. In the Dollar Tree banner stores, Dollar Tree sells a wide selection of everyday basic, seasonal, closeout, and promotional merchandise for $1 or less. At its Deals banner stores, Dollar Tree offers an expanded assortment of this merchandise at prices generally less than $10. Dollar Tree and Deals banner stores range in size from 8,000 to 12,000 square feet of selling space and typically carry between 6,600 to 7,000 stock keeping units (``SKUs''). As of February 28, 2015, Family Dollar operated approximately 8,184 discount general merchandise retail stores nationwide. Family Dollar sells an assortment of consumables, home products, apparel and accessories, seasonal items, and electronic merchandise at prices generally less than $10. Currently, Family Dollar stores are located in 46 states and the District of Columbia. Stores typically have 7,150 square feet of selling space and carry approximately 6,500 to 7,000 SKUs. III. Competition in the Relevant Markets Dollar stores are small-format, deep-discount retailers that sell an assortment of consumables and non-consumables, including food, home products, apparel and accessories, and seasonal items, at prices typically under $10. Dollar stores differentiate themselves from other retailers on the basis of both convenience and value by offering a broad assortment but limited variety of general merchandise items at discounted prices in stores with small footprints (i.e., approximately 7,000 to 10,000 square feet of selling space), located relatively close to consumers' homes or places of work.\3\ Customers often shop at dollar stores as part of a ``fill-in'' shopping trip. Dollar stores typically compete most closely with other dollar stores that provide the same kind of convenient shopping trip for discounted general merchandise. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \3\ The term ``dollar stores'' as used here includes stores operated by Respondents, Dollar General, 99 Cents Only, and Fred's Super Dollar. Independently-owned retailers that sell discounted merchandise at the $1 or multi-price point in substantially smaller stores are not included. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Walmart competes closely with dollar stores and offers a wide assortment of products at deeply-discounted prices. Although Walmart does not provide the same kind of convenience as that of dollar stores given its less-accessible locations, larger store footprints, and greater assortment of products, Walmart nevertheless competes closely with dollar stores by offering a comparable or better value to consumers in terms of pricing. For purposes of this matter, ``discount general merchandise retail stores'' refers to dollar stores and the retailer Walmart. Although other retail stores (i.e., supermarkets, pharmacies, mass merchandisers, and discount specialty merchandise retail stores) often sell discounted merchandise similar to that offered by dollar stores and Walmart, these other retailers generally are not as effective at constraining Respondents as are other discount general merchandise retail stores.\4\ These other retailers do not offer the same value as Walmart or the same combination of convenience and value offered by dollar stores, which tends to make them less effective substitutes for discount general merchandise retail stores. As a result, consumers shopping at discount general merchandise retail stores are unlikely to significantly increase purchases of discounted merchandise at other retailers in response to a small but significant price increase at discount general merchandise retail stores. However, in certain geographic markets, typically characterized by high population density, where the number and geographic proximity of these other retailers is substantial relative to the [[Page 42812]] competing discount general merchandise retail stores, the collective presence of these other retailers acts as a more significant price constraint on the discount general merchandise retail stores operating in the area.\5\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \4\ The term ``supermarkets'' as used here includes traditional supermarkets such as Kroger and Publix, as well as supermarkets included within hypermarkets such as SuperTarget or Kroger's Fred Meyer banner. The term ``pharmacies'' includes national retail drug stores such as CVS, Rite Aid, and Walgreens. The term ``mass merchandisers'' includes retailers such as Target and K-Mart. The term ``discount specialty merchandise retail stores'' includes retailers such as Big Lots and Aldi. \5\ Online retailers are not participants in the relevant product market. The primary appeal of dollar stores is the combination of value and convenience they offer consumers. Given the time required to process and ship items ordered online, Internet retailers are less convenient shopping options for consumers looking to make an immediate purchase on a fill-in trip. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thus, the relevant line of commerce in which to analyze the Acquisition is no narrower than discount general merchandise retail stores. In certain geographic markets, the relevant line of commerce may be as broad as the sale of discounted general merchandise in retail stores (i.e., discount general merchandise retail stores as well as supermarkets, pharmacies, mass merchandisers, and discount specialty merchandise retail stores). Whether the relevant line of commerce is discount general merchandise retail stores or discounted general merchandise in retail stores depends on the specifics of the geographic market at issue, such as population density and the density and proximity of the Respondents' stores and competing retailers. The relevant geographic market varies depending on the unique characteristics of each market, including the local road network, physical boundaries, and population density. A strong motivation of consumers shopping at discount general merchandise retail stores is convenience. As with grocery shopping, the vast majority of consumers who shop for discounted general merchandise do so at stores located very close to where they live or work. The draw area of a dollar store, which varies depending on whether it is located in an urban, suburban, or rural area, may range from a couple of city blocks to several miles. Other market participants, such as supermarkets and retail pharmacies, may have similar, although somewhat broader draw areas. Walmart's stores, particularly Walmart Supercenters, tend to have a considerably broader draw area. In highly urban areas, the geographic markets are generally no broader than a half-mile radius around a given store. In highly rural areas, the geographic market is generally no narrower than a three-mile radius around a given store. In areas neither highly urban nor highly rural, the geographic market is generally within a half-mile to three-mile radius around a given store. Respondents are close competitors in terms of format, customer service, product offerings, and location in the relevant geographic markets. With regard to pricing, product assortment, and a host of other competitive issues, Respondents typically focus most directly on the actions and responses of each other and other dollar stores, while also paying close attention to Walmart. In many of the relevant geographic markets, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar operate the only dollar stores in the area or the vast majority of conveniently-located discount general merchandise retail stores. Absent relief, the Acquisition would increase the incentive and ability of Dollar Tree to raise prices unilaterally post-Acquisition in the relevant geographic markets. The Acquisition would also decrease incentives to compete on non-price factors, including product selection, quality, and service. Entry into the relevant geographic markets that is timely and sufficient to prevent or counteract the expected anticompetitive effects of the Acquisition is unlikely. Entry barriers include the time, costs, and feasibility associated with identifying and potentially constructing an appropriate and available location for a discount general merchandise retail store, the resources required to support one or more new stores over a prolonged ramp-up period, and the sufficient scale to compete effectively. An entrant's ability to secure a viable competitive location may be hindered by restrictive-use commercial lease covenants, which can limit the products sold, or even the type of retailer that can be located, at a particular location. IV. The Proposed Consent Order The proposed remedy, which requires the divestiture of 330 Family Dollar stores in the relevant markets to Sycamore Partners (``Sycamore''), will restore fully the competition that otherwise would be eliminated in these markets as a result of the Acquisition. Sycamore is a private equity firm specializing in consumer and retail investments. The proposed buyer appears to be a highly suitable purchaser and is well positioned to enter the relevant geographic markets and prevent the likely competitive harm that otherwise would result from the Acquisition. Sycamore's proposed executive team has extensive experience operating discount general merchandise retail stores. The proposed Consent Order requires Respondents to divest 330 stores to Sycamore within 150 days from the date of the Acquisition. If, at any time before the proposed Consent Order is made final, the Commission determines that Sycamore is not an acceptable buyer, Respondents must immediately rescind the divestitures and divest the assets to a different buyer that receives the Commission's prior approval. The proposed Consent Order contains additional provisions to ensure the adequacy of the proposed relief. For example, Respondents have agreed to an Order to Maintain Assets that will be issued at the time the proposed Consent Order is accepted for public comment. The Order to Maintain Assets requires Family Dollar to operate and maintain each divestiture store in the normal course of business through the date the store is ultimately divested to Sycamore. Because the divestiture schedule runs for an extended period of time, the proposed Consent Order appoints Gary Smith as a Monitor to oversee Respondents' compliance with the requirements of the proposed Consent Order and Order to Maintain Assets. Mr. Smith has the experience and skills to be an effective Monitor, no identifiable conflicts, and sufficient time to dedicate to this matter through its conclusion. * * * * * The sole purpose of this Analysis is to facilitate public comment on the proposed Consent Order. This Analysis does not constitute an official interpretation of the proposed Consent Order, nor does it modify its terms in any way. Appendix A ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Number City of stores divested ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Alabama............................. Montgomery............. 1 Arizona............................. Lake Havasu............ 1 Arizona............................. Tucson................. 1 California.......................... Farmersville........... 1 California.......................... Fresno................. 1 California.......................... Inglewood.............. 1 California.......................... Lemoore................ 1 California.......................... San Bernardino......... 1 Colorado............................ Aurora................. 1 Colorado............................ Colorado Springs....... 3 Colorado............................ Denver................. 1 Colorado............................ Federal Heights........ 1 Colorado............................ Lakewood............... 1 Connecticut......................... Bloomfield............. 1 Connecticut......................... Bridgeport............. 1 Connecticut......................... Groton................. 1 Connecticut......................... Meriden................ 1 Connecticut......................... New Haven.............. 1 Connecticut......................... West Hartford.......... 1 Delaware............................ Wilmington............. 1 Florida............................. Dania.................. 1 Florida............................. Deltona................ 2 Florida............................. Hollywood.............. 1 Florida............................. Homestead.............. 1 Florida............................. Jacksonville........... 2 Florida............................. Kissimmee.............. 3 Florida............................. Miami.................. 3 Florida............................. Miami Gardens.......... 1 Florida............................. Plantation............. 1 [[Page 42813]] Florida............................. Tampa.................. 3 Georgia............................. Atlanta................ 7 Georgia............................. Columbus............... 1 Georgia............................. Decatur................ 3 Georgia............................. Lake City.............. 1 Georgia............................. Norcross............... 1 Georgia............................. Stone Mountain......... 1 Idaho............................... Emmett................. 1 Illinois............................ Aurora................. 1 Illinois............................ Berwyn................. 1 Illinois............................ Chicago................ 13 Illinois............................ Elgin.................. 1 Illinois............................ Harvey................. 1 Indiana............................. Fort Wayne............. 1 Indiana............................. Gary................... 2 Indiana............................. Indianapolis........... 2 Kentucky............................ Covington.............. 1 Kentucky............................ Louisville............. 2 Louisiana........................... Baton Rouge............ 1 Louisiana........................... Lafayette.............. 1 Louisiana........................... New Orleans............ 1 Maine............................... Caribou................ 1 Maine............................... Gray................... 1 Maine............................... Lewiston............... 1 Maine............................... Livermore Falls........ 1 Maine............................... Old Town............... 1 Maine............................... South Portland......... 1 Maine............................... Waterville............. 1 Maryland............................ Baltimore.............. 4 Maryland............................ Capitol Heights........ 1 Maryland............................ Lanham................. 1 Maryland............................ Mount Rainier.......... 1 Maryland............................ Oxon Hill.............. 1 Maryland............................ Salisbury.............. 1 Maryland............................ Silver Spring.......... 1 Maryland............................ Temple Hills........... 1 Massachusetts....................... Boston................. 1 Massachusetts....................... Brockton............... 1 Massachusetts....................... Cambridge.............. 1 Massachusetts....................... Chelsea................ 1 Massachusetts....................... Dorchester............. 1 Massachusetts....................... Framingham............. 1 Massachusetts....................... Gloucester............. 1 Massachusetts....................... Greenfield............. 1 Massachusetts....................... Holyoke................ 1 Massachusetts....................... Lowell................. 1 Massachusetts....................... Medford................ 1 Massachusetts....................... New Bedford............ 1 Massachusetts....................... North Adams............ 1 Massachusetts....................... Randolph............... 1 Massachusetts....................... Revere................. 1 Massachusetts....................... South Yarmouth......... 1 Massachusetts....................... Springfield............ 2 Massachusetts....................... Ware................... 1 Massachusetts....................... West Springfield....... 1 Massachusetts....................... Worcester.............. 1 Michigan............................ Benton Harbor.......... 1 Michigan............................ Burton................. 1 Michigan............................ Detroit................ 5 Michigan............................ Eastpointe............. 1 Michigan............................ Ferndale............... 1 Michigan............................ Grand Rapids........... 2 Michigan............................ Hamtramck.............. 1 Michigan............................ Hazel Park............. 1 Michigan............................ Highland Park.......... 1 Michigan............................ Holland................ 1 Michigan............................ Inkster................ 1 Michigan............................ Lansing................ 1 Michigan............................ Livonia................ 1 Michigan............................ Mount Morris........... 1 Michigan............................ Oak Park............... 1 Michigan............................ Portage................ 1 Michigan............................ Saginaw................ 1 Michigan............................ Taylor................. 1 Michigan............................ Westland............... 1 Michigan............................ Wyoming................ 1 Minnesota........................... Minneapolis............ 3 Minnesota........................... Robbinsdale............ 1 Minnesota........................... St. Paul............... 3 Mississippi......................... Jackson................ 1 Missouri............................ Jennings............... 1 Missouri............................ St. Louis.............. 6 Nebraska............................ Omaha.................. 1 New Jersey.......................... Belmar................. 1 New Jersey.......................... Brigantine............. 1 New Jersey.......................... East Orange............ 1 New Jersey.......................... Elizabeth.............. 2 New Jersey.......................... Ewing.................. 1 New Jersey.......................... Glassboro.............. 1 New Jersey.......................... Hamilton Township...... 1 New Jersey.......................... Irvington.............. 1 New Jersey.......................... Mount Holly............ 1 New Jersey.......................... Newark................. 2 New Jersey.......................... Paterson............... 1 New Jersey.......................... Pleasantville.......... 1 New Jersey.......................... Vineland............... 1 New Mexico.......................... Albuquerque............ 3 New Mexico.......................... Las Cruces............. 1 New York............................ Astoria................ 1 New York............................ Bronx.................. 8 New York............................ Brooklyn............... 7 New York............................ College Point.......... 1 New York............................ East Aurora............ 1 New York............................ Far Rockaway........... 1 New York............................ Glendale............... 1 New York............................ Grand Island........... 1 New York............................ Greece................. 1 New York............................ Jamaica................ 2 New York............................ Johnstown.............. 1 New York............................ Lindenhurst............ 1 New York............................ Mattydale.............. 1 New York............................ Mount Vernon........... 1 New York............................ Patchogue.............. 1 New York............................ Poughkeepsie........... 1 New York............................ Queens................. 2 New York............................ Queens Village......... 1 New York............................ Ridgewood.............. 1 New York............................ Rochester.............. 3 New York............................ Rocky Point............ 1 New York............................ Saranac Lake........... 1 New York............................ Selden................. 1 New York............................ Shirley................ 1 New York............................ Springfield Gardens.... 1 New York............................ Staten Island.......... 2 New York............................ Syracuse............... 2 New York............................ Utica.................. 1 North Carolina...................... Charlotte.............. 2 Ohio................................ Akron.................. 1 Ohio................................ Canton................. 1 Ohio................................ Cincinnati............. 5 Ohio................................ Cleveland.............. 4 Ohio................................ Columbus............... 3 Ohio................................ East Cleveland......... 1 Ohio................................ Milford................ 1 Ohio................................ St. Bernard............ 1 Ohio................................ Toledo................. 2 Ohio................................ Whitehall.............. 1 Oklahoma............................ Oklahoma City.......... 2 Pennsylvania........................ Allentown.............. 1 Pennsylvania........................ East Liberty........... 1 Pennsylvania........................ Edwardsville........... 1 Pennsylvania........................ Harrisburg............. 2 Pennsylvania........................ Lansdowne.............. 1 Pennsylvania........................ Levittown.............. 1 Pennsylvania........................ Mckeesport............. 1 Pennsylvania........................ Middletown............. 1 Pennsylvania........................ Morrisville............ 1 Pennsylvania........................ Philadelphia........... 5 Pennsylvania........................ Pittsburgh............. 2 Pennsylvania........................ Swissvale.............. 1 Pennsylvania........................ Upper Darby............ 1 Pennsylvania........................ Yeadon................. 1 Rhode Island........................ Bristol................ 1 Rhode Island........................ Central Falls.......... 1 Rhode Island........................ Pawtucket.............. 2 Rhode Island........................ Providence............. 2 Rhode Island........................ Rumford................ 1 Tennessee........................... Memphis................ 3 Tennessee........................... Nashville.............. 1 Texas............................... Arlington.............. 1 Texas............................... Balch Springs.......... 1 Texas............................... Beaumont............... 1 Texas............................... Brownsville............ 1 Texas............................... Corpus Christi......... 1 Texas............................... Dallas................. 1 Texas............................... Eagle Pass............. 1 Texas............................... El Paso................ 3 Texas............................... Fort Worth............. 2 Texas............................... Houston................ 5 Texas............................... Lubbock................ 1 Texas............................... Odessa................. 1 Texas............................... Pasadena............... 1 Texas............................... San Antonio............ 2 Utah................................ Midvale................ 1 Utah................................ Ogden.................. 1 Utah................................ Provo.................. 1 Utah................................ Salt Lake City......... 1 Utah................................ St. George............. 1 Utah................................ West Valley City....... 1 Vermont............................. Morrisville............ 1 Vermont............................. Newport................ 1 Virginia............................ Alexandria............. 1 Virginia............................ Chesapeake............. 1 Virginia............................ Hampton................ 1 Virginia............................ Lynchburg.............. 1 Virginia............................ Norfolk................ 3 Virginia............................ Portsmouth............. 1 Virginia............................ Richmond............... 1 West Virginia....................... Huntington............. 1 Wisconsin........................... Appleton............... 1 Wisconsin........................... Eau Claire............. 1 Wisconsin........................... Milwaukee.............. 3 Wisconsin........................... St. Francis............ 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ By direction of the Commission, Commissioner Wright dissenting. Donald S. Clark, Secretary. [[Page 42814]] Statement of the Federal Trade Commission The Federal Trade Commission has accepted a proposed settlement to resolve the likely anticompetitive effects of Dollar Tree, Inc.'s proposed $9.2 billion acquisition of Family Dollar Stores, Inc.\1\ We have reason to believe that, absent a remedy, the proposed acquisition is likely to substantially lessen competition between Dollar Tree and Family Dollar in numerous local markets. Under the terms of the proposed consent order, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar are required to divest 330 stores to a Commission-approved buyer. As we explain below, we believe the proposed divestitures preserve competition in the markets adversely affected by the acquisition and are therefore in the public interest. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \1\ This statement reflects the views of Chairwoman Ramirez and Commissioners Brill, Ohlhausen, and McSweeny. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dollar Tree operates over 5,000 discount general merchandise retail stores across the United States under two banners which follow somewhat different business models. In its Dollar Tree banner stores, Dollar Tree sells a wide selection of everyday basic, seasonal, closeout, and promotional merchandise--all for $1 or less. At its Deals banner stores, Dollar Tree sells an expanded assortment of this merchandise at prices that may go above the $1 price point but are generally less than $10. Family Dollar operates over 8,000 discount general merchandise retail stores. Family Dollar sells an assortment of consumables, home products, apparel and accessories, seasonal items, and electronic merchandise at prices generally less than $10, including items priced at or under $1. Dollar Tree and Family Dollar compete head-to-head in numerous local markets across the United States. They are close competitors in terms of format, pricing, customer service, product offerings, and location. When making competitive decisions regarding pricing, product assortment, and other salient aspects of their businesses, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar focus most directly on the actions and responses of each other and other ``dollar store'' chains, while also paying close attention to Walmart. In many local markets, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar operate stores in close proximity to each other, often representing the only or the majority of conveniently located discount general merchandise retail stores in a neighborhood. To evaluate the likely competitive effects of this transaction and identify the local markets where it may likely harm competition, the Commission considered multiple sources of quantitative and qualitative evidence. One component of the investigation involved a Gross Upward Pricing Pressure Index (``GUPPI'') analysis. As described in the 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines, this mode of analysis can serve as a useful indicator of whether a merger involving differentiated products is likely to result in unilateral anticompetitive effects.\2\ Such effects can arise ``when the merger gives the merged entity an incentive to raise the price of a product previously sold by one merging firm'' because the merged entity stands to profit from any sales that are then diverted to products that would have been ``previously sold by the other merging firm.'' \3\ Using the value of diverted sales as an indicator of the upward pricing pressure resulting from the merger, a GUPPI is defined as the value of diverted sales that would be gained by the second firm measured in proportion to the revenues that would be lost by the first firm. If the ``value of diverted sales is proportionately small, significant unilateral price effects are unlikely.'' \4\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \2\ U.S. Dept. of Justice and Fed. Trade Comm'n, Horizontal Merger Guidelines Sec. 6.1 (2010), available at https://www.ftc.gov/sites/default/files/attachments/merger-review/100819hmg.pdf. \3\ Id. \4\ Id. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Commission's investigation involved thousands of Dollar Tree and Family Dollar stores with overlapping geographic markets. A GUPPI analysis served as a useful initial screen to flag those markets where the transaction might likely harm competition and those where it might pose little or no risk to competition. As a general matter, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar stores with relatively low GUPPIs suggested that the transaction was unlikely to harm competition, unless the investigation uncovered specific reasons why the GUPPIs may have understated the potential for anticompetitive effects. Conversely, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar stores with relatively high GUPPIs suggested that the transaction was likely to harm competition, subject to evidence or analysis indicating that the GUPPIs may have overstated the potential for anticompetitive effects. While the GUPPI analysis was an important screen for the Commission's inquiry, it was only a starting point. The Commission considered several other sources of evidence in assessing the transaction's likely competitive effects, including additional detail regarding the geographic proximity of the merging parties' stores relative to each other and to other retail stores, ordinary course of business documents and data supplied by Dollar Tree and Family Dollar, information from other market participants, and analyses conducted by various state attorneys general who were also investigating the transaction. After considering all of this evidence, the Commission identified specific local markets where the acquisition would be likely to harm competition and arrived at the list of 330 stores slated for divestiture. In his statement, Commissioner Wright criticizes the way that the Commission used the GUPPI analysis in this case and argues that GUPPIs below a certain threshold should be treated as a ``safe harbor.'' \5\ We respectfully disagree. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \5\ Statement of Commissioner Joshua D. Wright Dissenting in Part and Concurring in Part, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Family Dollar Stores, Inc., File No. 141-0207. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- As an initial matter, Commissioner Wright mischaracterizes the way that the GUPPI analysis was used in this case. Contrary to his suggestion, GUPPIs were not used as a rigid presumption of harm. As explained above, they were used only as an initial screen to identify those markets where further investigation was warranted. The Commission then proceeded to consider the results of the GUPPI analysis in conjunction with numerous other sources of information.\6\ Based on this complete body of evidence, we have reason to believe that, without the proposed divestitures, the acquisition would substantially lessen competition in each of the relevant local markets. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \6\ As Joseph Farrell and Carl Shapiro have noted, ``[r]eal- world mergers are complex, and our proposed test, like the concentration-based test, is consciously oversimplified. . . . In the end, the evaluation of any merger that is thoroughly investigated or litigated may come down to the fullest feasible analysis of effects.'' Joseph Farrell & Carl Shapiro, Antitrust Evaluation of Horizontal Mergers: An Economic Alternative to Market Definition, 10 B.E. J. Theoretical Econ. 1, 26 (2010). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Our market-by-market review showed that the model of competition underlying the GUPPI analysis was largely consistent with other available evidence regarding the closeness of competition between the parties' stores in each local market. For example, stores with high GUPPIs were generally found in markets in which there were few or no other conveniently located discount general merchandise retail stores. The GUPPI analysis did have some limitations, however. For example, there were Family Dollar stores with relatively low GUPPIs in markets that were nevertheless price-zoned to Dollar Tree stores, which meant that if Dollar Tree stores were [[Page 42815]] removed as competition, then the prices of certain items at those Family Dollar stores would likely go up. The GUPPI analysis also was not sufficiently sensitive to differentiate between Dollar Tree and Family Dollar stores that were in the same shopping plaza from those that were almost a mile away from each other. For these situations, we appropriately relied on other evidence to reach a judgment about the closeness of competition.\7\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \7\ Commissioner Wright cites the Albertson's/Safeway transaction as another recent case in which a GUPPI analysis was used. See Wright Statement at 2 n.6. To be precise, the Commission analyzed that transaction using diversion ratios, not GUPPI scores, but in any event, Commissioner Wright himself voted to accept the consent order in that case. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- More broadly, Commissioner Wright's view that the Commission should identify and treat GUPPIs below a certain threshold as a ``safe harbor'' ignores the reality that merger analysis is inherently fact- specific. The manner in which GUPPI analysis is used will vary depending on the factual circumstances, the available data, and the other evidence gathered during an investigation. Moreover, whether the value of diverted sales is considered ``proportionately small'' compared to lost revenues will vary from industry to industry and firm to firm.\8\ For example, intense competition between merging firms may cause margins to be very low, which could produce a low GUPPI even in the presence of very high diversion ratios. Such conditions could produce a false negative implying that the merger is not likely to harm competition when in fact it is.\9\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \8\ Marginal cost efficiencies, as well as pass-through rates, also will vary from industry to industry and from firm to firm. The pass-through rate will determine the magnitude of the post-merger unilateral price effects. \9\ Joseph Farrell & Carl Shapiro, Upward Pricing Pressure and Critical Loss Analysis: Response, CPI Antitrust J. 1, 6-7 & n.15 (Feb. 2010); Farrell & Shapiro, Antitrust Evaluation of Horizontal Mergers, supra note 6, at 13-14. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Indeed, we agree with Commissioner Wright that ``a GUPPI-based presumption of competitive harm is inappropriate at this stage of economic learning.'' \10\ We think that a GUPPI-based safe harbor is equally inappropriate. In antitrust law, bright-line rules and presumptions rest on accumulated experience and economic learning that the transaction or conduct in question is likely or unlikely to harm competition.\11\ We do not believe there is a basis for the recognition of a GUPPI safe harbor. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \10\ Wright Statement, supra note 5, at 8 & nn.23 & 24 (citing commentators' concerns and criticisms regarding the use of GUPPI analysis generally). Such concerns and criticisms, if valid, would apply equally to the wisdom of using GUPPIs to recognize a safe harbor. \11\ See, e.g., Leegin Creative Leather Prods., Inc. v. PSKS, Inc., 551 U.S. 877, 886-87 (2007) (``As a consequence, the per se rule is appropriate only after courts have had considerable experience with the type of restraint at issue, . . . and only if courts can predict with confidence that it would be invalidated in all or almost all instances under the rule of reason, . . .''); Cal. Dental Ass'n v. FTC, 526 U.S. 756, 781 (1999) (``The object is to see whether the experience of the market has been so clear, or necessarily will be, that a confident conclusion about the principal tendency of a restriction will follow from a quick (or at least quicker) look, in place of a more sedulous one.''); ProMedica Health Sys., Inc. v. FTC, 749 F.3d 559, 570, 571 (6th Cir. 2014) (noting that ``the strong correlation between market share and price, and the degree to which this merger would further concentrate markets that are already highly concentrated--converge in a manner that fully supports the Commission's application of a presumption of illegality'' but also noting that ``the Commission did not merely rest upon the presumption, but instead discussed a wide range of evidence that buttresses it''). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Accordingly, in any case where a GUPPI analysis is used, the Commission will consider the particular factual circumstances and evaluate other sources of quantitative and qualitative evidence.\12\ As with other quantitative evidence such as market shares and HHIs, we believe that GUPPIs should be considered in the context of all other reasonably available evidence. The 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines do not instruct otherwise.\13\ For all of these reasons, we believe it is appropriate to use GUPPIs flexibly and as merely one tool of analysis in the Commission's assessment of unilateral anticompetitive effects. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \12\ See Carl Shapiro, The 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines: From Hedgehog to Fox in Forty Years, 77 Antitrust L.J. 701, 729 (2010) (``The value of diverted sales is an excellent simple measure for diagnosing or scoring unilateral price effects, but it cannot capture the full richness of competition in real-world industries. Indeed, as stressed above, all of the quantitative methods discussed here must be used in conjunction with the broader set of qualitative evidence that the Agencies assemble during a merger investigation.''); Farrell & Shapiro, Upward Pricing Pressure, supra note 8, at 6 (``Whatever measure is used for screening purposes, it is important that the full analysis give proper weight to all the available evidence.''). Notwithstanding Commissioner Wright's suggestion to the contrary, we do not believe that the Commission's use of GUPPIs as a tool for assessing unilateral effects differs materially from their use by the Department of Justice. \13\ Recognizing in the 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines that when the ``value of diverted sales is proportionately small, significant unilateral price effects are unlikely'' does not necessarily mean that ``proportionately small'' should be reduced to some numerical value that applies in all cases. See Merger Guidelines, supra note 2, Sec. 1 (``These Guidelines should be read with the awareness that merger analysis does not consist of uniform application of a single methodology.''). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- By direction of the Commission, Commissioner Wright not participating. Statement of Commissioner Joshua D. Wright Dissenting in Part and Concurring in Part The Commission has voted to issue a Complaint and a Decision & Order against Dollar Tree, Inc. (``Dollar Tree'') and Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (``Family Dollar'') to remedy the allegedly anticompetitive effects of the proposed acquisition by Dollar Tree of Family Dollar. I dissent in part from and concur in part with the Commission's decision. I dissent in part because in 27 markets I disagree with the Commission's conclusion that there is reason to believe the proposed transaction violates the Clayton Act. The record evidence includes a quantitative measure of the value of diverted sales as well as various forms of qualitative evidence. The value of diverted sales is typically measured as the product of the diversion ratio between the merging parties' products--the diversion ratio between two products is the percentage of unit sales lost by one product when its price rises, that are captured by the second product-- and the profit margin of the second product. When the value of diverted sales is measured in proportion to ``the lost revenues attributable to the reduction in unit sales resulting from the price increase,'' \1\ it is the ``gross upward pricing pressure index,'' or ``GUPPI.'' The GUPPI is an economic tool used to score or rank the incentives for potential unilateral price effects. In the markets where I depart from the Commission's decision the GUPPI is below 5 percent, indicating insignificant upward pricing pressure even before efficiencies or entry are taken into account, and weak incentives for unilateral price increases. In my view, the available quantitative and qualitative evidence are insufficient to support a reason to believe the proposed transaction will harm competition in these markets. I write separately to explain more fully the basis for my dissent in these markets. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \1\ U.S. Dep't of Justice & Fed. Trade Comm'n, Horizontal Merger Guidelines Sec. 6.1 n.11 (2010) [hereinafter Merger Guidelines]. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- I also write to address an important merger policy issue implicated by today's decision--that is, whether the FTC should adopt a safe harbor in unilateral effects merger investigations by defining a GUPPI threshold below which it is presumed competitive harm is unlikely. The Merger Guidelines clearly contemplate such a safe harbor. The Merger Guidelines explain that ``[i]f the value of diverted sales is proportionately small, significant [[Page 42816]] unilateral price effects are unlikely.'' \2\ In other words, the Merger Guidelines recognize that if the GUPPI is small, significant unilateral price effects are unlikely. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \2\ Id. Sec. 6.1 (emphasis added); see Steven C. Salop, Serge X. Moresi & John Woodbury, CRA Competition Memo, Scoring Unilateral Effects with the GUPPI: The Approach of the New Horizontal Merger Guidelines 2 (Aug. 31, 2010), available at http://crai.com/sites/default/files/publications/Commentary-on-the-GUPPI_0.pdf. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Without more, one might reasonably conclude it is unclear whether the Merger Guidelines merely offer a truism about the relationship between the GUPPI and likely unilateral price effects or invite the agencies to take on the task of identifying a safe harbor of general applicability across cases. But there is more. A principal drafter of the Merger Guidelines has explained the Merger Guidelines' reference to a ``proportionately small'' value of diverted sales was intended to establish a GUPPI safe harbor. The Department of Justice's Antitrust Division (``Division''), consistent with this interpretation of the Merger Guidelines, publicly announced precisely such a safe harbor when the GUPPI is less than 5 percent.\3\ Further, there is significant intellectual support for a GUPPI-based safe harbor among economists \4\--once again including the principal drafters of the Merger Guidelines.\5\ The Commission, however, has rejected the safe harbor approach both in practice--indeed, the Commission has recently entered into another consent involving divestitures in markets with GUPPI scores below 5 percent \6\--and as a matter of the policy announced in the Commission's statement today.\7\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \3\ Carl Shapiro, Deputy Ass't Att'y Gen. for Econ., Antitrust Div., U.S. Dep't of Justice, Update from the Antitrust Division, Remarks as Prepared for the ABA Antitrust Law Fall Forum 24 (Nov. 18 2010). \4\ See, e.g., Salop, Moresi & Woodbury, supra note 2, at 2 (explaining that ``a GUPPI of less than 5% would be reasonably treated as evidence that `the value of diverted sales is proportionately small' and hence that the proposed merger is unlikely to raise unilateral effects concerns''). \5\ See Joseph Farrell & Carl Shapiro, Antitrust Evaluation of Horizontal Mergers: An Economic Alternative to Market Definition, 10 B.E. J. Theoretical Econ. 1 (2010). \6\ See Cerberus Institutional Partners V, L.P., FTC File No. 141-0108 (July 2, 2015). There, though one could not possibly infer this from the public-facing documents in the case, the Commission applied a diversion ratio threshold to identify stores for divestiture. To be accurate, a GUPPI threshold could be implied from the Commission's analysis and, as algebraically mindful readers will note, setting a diversion ratio threshold given profit margin data and a predicted price increase is not analytically distinguishable from the analysis in this matter. The Commission rightly points out that I voted in favor of the consent in Cerberus. As to whether I am merely being inconsistent in my views on the role of GUPPIs in merger analysis or, alternatively, there is some other more reasonable explanation for my votes, I can provide the explanation and let readers decide. In Cerberus, I voted for the consent on the basis that the use of diversion or GUPPI-based analysis was a step forward relative to relying exclusively upon structural analysis. The fact that there were stores identified for divestiture with implied GUPPIs less than 5 percent was unique. It is now a trend reinforced by a Commission decision to reject a GUPPI-based safe harbor--a decision I do not believe is in the public interest. Regarding Cerberus, it is worth pointing out further that even a careful reader of the public documents in that case would come away with the impression that the Commission's analysis was largely structural, and concluded a number of six-to-five mergers were presumptively anticompetitive. See Analysis of Agreement Containing Consent Order to Aid Public Comment Exhibit A, id. An ancillary benefit of the transparency reluctantly generated by today's Commission statement is that the antitrust community is now on notice that more sophisticated economic tools were used in that matter, how they were used, and that the potential structural policy change signaled by those public documents does not appear to describe accurately the Commission's complete analysis in that case. \7\ Statement of the Federal Trade Commission at 3, Dollar Tree, Inc., FTC File No. 141-0207 (July 13, 2015) [hereinafter Majority Statement] (``[A] GUPPI-based safe harbor is . . . inappropriate.''). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is unfortunate. The legal, economic, and policy case for the GUPPI-based safe harbor contemplated by the Merger Guidelines is strong.\8\ There are a number of reasons why such a safe harbor might be desirable as a matter of antitrust policy if sufficiently supported by economic theory and evidence. Efficient resource allocation-- expending agency resources on the transactions most likely to raise serious competitive concerns and quickly dispensing with those that do not--is one such goal. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \8\ A second question is whether a presumption of competitive harm should follow, as a matter of economic theory and empirical evidence, from a demonstration of a GUPPI above a certain threshold value. There appears to be a consensus that the answer to this question, at this point, is no. I agree. See, e.g., Thomas A. Lambert, Respecting the Limits of Antitrust: The Roberts Court Versus the Enforcement Agencies 13 (Heritage Foundation Legal Memorandum No. 144, Jan. 28, 2015) (the GUPPI ``has not been empirically verified as a means of identifying anticompetitive mergers''); Steven C. Salop, The Evolution and Vitality of Merger Presumptions: A Decision-Theoretic Approach 40-41 (Georgetown Law Faculty Publications and Other Works, Working Paper No. 1304, 2014), available at http://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/facpub/1304/ (``The 2010 Merger Guidelines do not adopt an anticompetitive enforcement presumption based on high values of the GUPPI score. This was a practical policy decision at this time because the use of the GUPPI was new to much of the defense bar and the courts.''). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- A second reason a safe harbor for proportionately small diversion might be desirable antitrust policy is to compensate for the sources of downward pricing pressure not measured by the GUPPI but expected with most transactions, including efficiencies, entry, or repositioning. Some have argued that--as a GUPPI attempts a rough measure of upward pricing pressure without a full blown analysis--a symmetrical approach would include a standard efficiencies deduction which would be applied to account for the downward pricing pressure from the marginal-cost efficiencies that can typically be expected to result from transactions.\9\ This approach would permit the identification of a gross-upward-pricing-pressure threshold that triggers additional scrutiny.\10\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \9\ Farrell & Shapiro, supra note 5, at 10-12. \10\ See id. at 12. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yet a third reason a safe harbor might be desirable is to compensate the well-known feature of GUPPI-based scoring methods to predict harm for any positive diversion ratio--that is, even for distant substitutes--by distinguishing de minimis GUPPI levels from those that warrant additional scrutiny.\11\ The Merger Guidelines contemplate a ``safe harbor'' because it ``reflects that a small amount of upward pricing pressure is unlikely . . . to correspond to any actual post-merger price increase.'' \12\ Carl Shapiro explained shortly after adoption of the Merger Guidelines, on behalf of the Division, that ``Current Division practice is to treat the value of diverted sales as proportionately small if it is no more than 5% of the lost revenues.'' \13\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \11\ James A. Keyte & Kenneth B. Schwartz, ``Tally-Ho!'': UPP and the 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines, 7 Antitrust L.J. 587, 628 (2010) (``an uncalibrated tool cannot have predictive value as a screen if it always indicates postmerger price pressure''). \12\ Shapiro, supra note 3, at 24. Shapiro further cautioned that, although a GUPPI analysis ``can be highly informative, the Agencies understand full well that measuring upward pricing pressure . . . typically is not the end of the story . . . . Repositioning, entry, innovation, and efficiencies must also be considered.'' Id. at 26. \13\ Id. at 24. Others have interpreted this speech as clearly announcing Division policy. See Salop, supra note 8, at 43 & n.105 (``In a speech while he was Deputy AAG, Carl Shapiro also specified a GUPPI safe harbor of 5%. As a speech by the Deputy AAG, this statement appeared to reflect DOJ policy.'' (citing Shapiro, supra note 3)). Other economists agree that a GUPPI safe harbor should apply. E.g., Farrell & Shapiro, supra note 5, at 10; Salop, Moresi & Woodbury, supra note 2, at 2. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Against these benefits of adopting a GUPPI-based safe harbor, the Commission must weigh the cost of reducing its own flexibility and prosecutorial discretion. This begs the question: How likely are mergers within the proposed safe harbor to be anticompetitive? The benefits of this flexibility are proportional to the probability that the Commission's economic analysis leads them to conclude that mergers with a GUPPI of less than 5 percent are anticompetitive. I am not aware of any transactions since [[Page 42817]] the Merger Guidelines were adopted other than the two already mentioned that meet these criteria. The domain in which flexibility would be reduced with adoption of a reasonable safe harbor is small and the costs of doing so correspondingly low. The Commission rejects a GUPPI safe harbor on the grounds that such an approach ``ignores the reality that merger analysis is inherently fact-specific.'' \14\ The Commission appears especially concerned that a GUPPI-based safe harbor might result in a false negative--that is, it is possible that a merger with a GUPPI less than 5 percent harms competition. This objection to safe harbors and bright-line rules and presumptions is both conceptually misguided and is in significant tension with antitrust doctrine and agency practice. Merger analysis is, of course, inherently fact specific. One can accept that reality, as well as the reality that evidence is both imperfect and can be costly to obtain, and yet still conclude that the optimal legal test from a consumer welfare perspective is a rule rather than a standard. This is a basic insight of decision theory, which provides a lens through which economists and legal scholars have long evaluated antitrust legal rules, burdens, and presumptions.\15\ The Commission's assertion that the mere possibility of false negatives undermines in the slightest the case for a safe harbor reveals a misunderstanding of the economic analysis of legal rules. The relevant question is not which legal rule drives false positives or false negatives to zero, but rather which legal rule minimizes the sum of the welfare costs associated with false negatives, false positives, and the costs of obtaining evidence and otherwise administering the law. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \14\ Majority Statement, supra note 7, at 3. \15\ See, e.g., C. Frederick Beckner III & Steven C. Salop, Decision Theory and Antitrust Rules, 67 Antitrust L.J. 41 (1999); James C. Cooper, Luke M. Froeb, Dan O'Brien & Michael G. Vita, Vertical Antitrust Policy as a Problem of Inference, 23 Int'l J. Indus. Org. 639 (2005); Frank H. Easterbrook, The Limits of Antitrust, 63 Tex. L. Rev. 1 (1984); Isaac Ehrlich & Richard A. Posner, An Economic Analysis of Legal Rulemaking, 3 J. Legal Stud. 257 (1974); David S. Evans & A. Jorge Padilla, Designing Antitrust Rules for Assessing Unilateral Practices: A Neo-Chicago Approach, 72 U. Chi. L. Rev. 27 (2005); Keith N. Hylton & Michael Salinger, Tying Law and Policy: A Decision Theoretic Approach, 69 Antitrust L.J. 469 (2001); Geoffrey A. Manne & Joshua D. Wright, Innovation and the Limits of Antitrust, 6 J. Comp. L. & Econ. 153 (2010). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Existing antitrust law regularly embraces bright-line rules and presumptions--rejecting the flexibility of a case-by-case standard taking full account of facts that vary across industries and firms. A simple example is the application of per se rules in price-fixing cases.\16\ This presumption of illegality is not based upon a belief that it is impossible for a horizontal restraint among competitors to increase welfare. Rather, the per se prohibition on naked price fixing ``reflects a judgment that the costs of identifying exceptions to the general rule so far outweigh the costs of occasionally condemning conduct that might upon further inspection prove to be acceptable, that it is preferable not to entertain defenses to the conduct at all.'' \17\ Similar decision-theoretic logic explains, for example, the presumption that above-cost prices are lawful.\18\ A GUPPI-based presumption would be based upon the same economic logic--not that small-GUPPI mergers can never result in anticompetitive effects, but rather that mergers involving small GUPPIs are sufficiently unlikely to result in unilateral price increases such that incurring the costs of identifying exceptions to the safe harbor is less efficient than simply allowing mergers within the safe harbor to move forward.\19\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \16\ See Broad. Music, Inc. v. Columbia Broad. Sys., Inc., 441 U.S. 1, 19-20 (1979) (``More generally, in characterizing this conduct under the per se rule, our inquiry must focus on . . . whether the practice facially appears to be one that would always or almost always tend to restrict competition and decrease output.''). \17\ Andrew I. Gavil, William E. Kovacic & Jonathan B. Baker, Antitrust Law in Perspective: Cases, Concepts and Problems in Competition Policy 104-05 (2d ed. 2008); see Barry Wright Corp. v. ITT Grinnell Corp., 724 F.2d 227, 234 (1st Cir. 1983) (``Rules that seek to embody every economic complexity and qualification may well, through the vagaries of administration, prove counter-productive, undercutting the very economic ends they seek to serve. Thus, despite the theoretical possibility of finding instances in which horizontal price fixing, or vertical price fixing, are economically justified, the courts have held them unlawful per se, concluding the administrative virtues of simplicity outweigh the occasional `economic' loss.''); Herbert Hovenkamp, The Antitrust Enterprise: Principle and Execution 50 (2005) (``[N]ot every anticompetitive practice can be condemned.''); Thomas A. Lambert, Book Review, Tweaking Antitrust's Business Model, 85 Tex. L. Rev. 153, 172 (2006) (``Hovenkamp's discussion of predatory and limit pricing reflects a key theme that runs throughout The Antitrust Enterprise: That antitrust rules should be easily administrable, even if that means they must permit some anticompetitive practices to go unpunished.''). \18\ See Brooke Grp. Ltd. v. Brown & Williamson Tobacco Corp., 509 U.S. 209, 226 (1993); see also Barry Wright Corp., 724 F.2d at 234 (``Conversely, we must be concerned lest a rule or precedent that authorizes a search for a particular type of undesirable pricing behavior end up by discouraging legitimate price competition. . . . [A] price cut that ends up with a price exceeding total cost--in all likelihood a cut made by a firm with market power--is almost certainly moving price in the `right' direction (towards the level that would be set in a competitive marketplace). The antitrust laws very rarely reject such `birds in hand' for the sake of more speculative (future low-price) `birds in the bush.' To do so opens the door to similar speculative claims that might seek to legitimate even the most settled unlawful practices.''). \19\ The Commission asserts that a GUPPI safe harbor cannot be justified by economic theory and evidence unless a presumption of liability can also be supported. I appreciate the Commission clarifying its view, but I believe it to be based upon a false equivalence. The Commission appears to misunderstand the difference between evidence sufficient to conclude harm is likely and evidence sufficient to conclude harm is unlikely. These are two very different economic propositions and it should not be surprising that one might be substantiated while the other is not. For example, one might rationally be uncomfortable pointing to the economic literature for support that mergers above a certain level of concentration are sufficiently likely to harm competition to support a presumption of antitrust liability, but also recognize the same body of economic theory and evidence would indeed support a safe harbor for mergers involving markets with thousands of competitors. To the extent the Commission appeals to academics who have raised concerns with GUPPI-based merger screens, my view clearly differs from the Commission. The Commission's more important dispute, in my view, is with the Merger Guidelines and its principal drafters, who clearly contemplated such a safe harbor. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Whether the Commission should adopt a GUPPI-based safe harbor is particularly relevant in the instant matter, as the FTC had data sufficient to calculate GUPPIs for Dollar Tree, Deals,\20\ and Family Dollar stores. The sheer number of stores owned and operated by the parties rendered individualized, in-depth analysis of the competitive nuances of each and every market difficult, if not impossible, to conduct. GUPPI calculations provided an efficient and workable alternative to identifying the small fraction of markets in which the transaction may be anticompetitive. This was a tremendous amount of work and I want to commend staff on taking this approach. Staff identified a GUPPI threshold such that stores with GUPPIs greater than the threshold were identified for divestiture. About half of the 330 stores divested as part of the Commission's Order were identified through this process. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \20\ Deals is a separate banner under which Dollar Tree operates. See Majority Statement, supra note 7, at 1. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- What about the other stores? The Commission asserts I ``mischaracterize[]'' its use of GUPPIs and that ``GUPPIs were not used as a rigid presumption of harm.'' \21\ It claims that GUPPIs were used only as ``an initial screen'' to identify markets for further analysis, and that the Commission ``proceeded to consider the results of the GUPPI analysis in conjunction with numerous other sources of information.'' \22\ The evidence suggests otherwise. One might reasonably hypothesize that further consideration and analysis of [[Page 42818]] ``numerous sources of information'' should result in both the identification of some stores above the GUPPI threshold that were ultimately determined unlikely to harm competition as well as some stores with GUPPIs below the threshold that nonetheless did create competitive problems--that is, further scrutiny might reveal both false negatives and false positives. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \21\ Id. at 2. \22\ Id. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- The number of stores with GUPPIs exceeding the identified threshold that, after evaluation in conjunction with the qualitative and other evidence described by the Commission, were not slated for divestiture is nearly zero. This outcome is indistinguishable from the application of a presumption of competitive harm. The additional stores with GUPPIs below the threshold that were then identified for divestiture based upon additional qualitative factors included a significant number of stores with GUPPIs below 5 percent. The ratio of stores falling below the GUPPI threshold but deemed problematic after further qualitative evidence is taken into account to stores with GUPPIs above the threshold but deemed not to raise competitive problems after qualitative evidence is accounted for is unusual and remarkably high. It is difficult to conceive of a distribution of qualitative and other evidence occurring in real-world markets that would result in this ratio. Qualitative evidence should not be a one-way ratchet confirming the Commission's conclusion of likely anticompetitive effects when GUPPIs are high and providing an independent basis for the same conclusion when GUPPIs are low. I applaud the FTC for taking important initial steps in applying more sophisticated economic tools in conducting merger analysis where the data are available to do so. Scoring metrics for evaluating incentives for unilateral price increases are no doubt a significant improvement over simply counting the number of firms in markets pre- and post-transaction. To be clear, it bears repeating that I agree that a GUPPI-based presumption of competitive harm is inappropriate at this stage of economic learning.\23\ There is no empirical evidence to support the use of GUPPI calculations in merger analysis on a standalone basis, let alone the use of a particular GUPPI threshold to predict whether a transaction is likely to substantially harm competition.\24\ I also agree that in the context of a full-scale evaluation of whether a proposed transaction is likely to harm competition, GUPPI-based analysis can and should be interpreted in conjunction with all other available quantitative and qualitative evidence. The relevant policy question is a narrow one: Whether there exists a GUPPI threshold below which the Commission should presumptively conclude a proposed transaction is unlikely to violate the antitrust laws. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \23\ Joseph J. Simons & Malcolm B. Coate, Upward Pressure on Price Analysis: Issues and Implications for Merger Policy, 6 Eur. Competition J. 377, 389 (2010) (the upward pricing pressure screen ``identifies as potentially problematic far more mergers than would be challenged or even investigated under the enforcement standards that have existed for more than twenty years''); Lambert, supra note 8, at 13 (``In the end, the agencies' reliance on the difficult-to- administer, empirically unverified, and inherently biased GUPPI is likely to generate many false condemnations of mergers that are, on the whole, beneficial.''). \24\ See Dennis W. Carlton, Revising the Horizontal Merger Guidelines, 10 J. Competition L. & Econ. 1, 7 (2010) (``Perhaps most importantly, UPP [as described in the 2010 Merger Guidelines] is new and little empirical analysis has been performed to validate its predictive value in assessing the competitive effects of mergers.''); Keyte & Schwartz, supra note 11, at 590 (discussing the 2010 Merger Guidelines' inclusion of the GUPPI and opining that ``in light of the [its] extremely light judicial record, as well as the absence of demonstrated reliability in predicting real-world competitive effects, we think it is premature, at best, to embrace [it] as a screening tool for merger review''); Simons & Coate, supra note 23 (``Because screening mechanisms [such as the GUPPI] purport to highlight general results, they need empirical support to show the methodology actually predicts concerns relatively well. This empirical support is not available at this time.''); Lambert, supra note 8, at 13 (the GUPPI ``has not been empirically verified as a means of identifying anticompetitive mergers''). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- The FTC has not publicly endorsed a GUPPI-based safe harbor of 5 percent and disappointingly, has rejected the concept in its statement today. The Commission's interpretation is that what is a ``proportionately small'' value of diverted sales should vary according to the industry--and even the individual firms--in a given investigation.\25\ As discussed, I believe this interpretation contradicts the letter and spirit of the Merger Guidelines.\26\ Moreover, the Commission's apparent discomfort with safe harbors on the grounds that they are not sufficiently flexible to take into account the fact-intensive nature of antitrust analysis in any specific matter is difficult to reconcile with its ready acceptance of presumptions and bright-line rules that trigger liability.\27\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \25\ Majority Statement, supra note 7, at 3. \26\ See supra text accompanying note 12. \27\ For example, the Commission regularly applies such presumptions of liability involving the number of firms in a market, or presumptions based upon increased market concentration as articulated by the Merger Guidelines or the courts. See, e.g., Statement of the Federal Trade Commission, Holcim Ltd., FTC File No. 141-0129 (May 8, 2015) (finding liability based upon, alternatively, changes in concentration and number of firms pre- and post-merger); Statement of the Federal Trade Commission, ZF Friedrichshafen AG, FTC File No. 141-0235 (May 8, 2015) (finding liability based upon number of firms pre- and post-merger); Mem. in Supp. of Pl. Federal Trade Commission's Mot. for T.R.O. and Prelim. Inj. at 23, FTC, v. Sysco Corp., 2015 WL 1501608, No. 1:15-cv-00256 (D.D.C. 2015) (arguing that the proposed merger was presumptively unlawful based upon the holding of United States v. Phila. Nat'l Bank, 374 U.S. 321 (1963)). That the Commission's tolerance of presumptions that that satisfy its own prima facie burden does not extend to safe harbors raises basic questions about the symmetry of the burdens applied in its antitrust analysis. See Dissenting Statement of Commissioner Joshua D. Wright 6, Ardagh Group S.A., FTC File No. 131-0087 (June 18, 2014) (``[S]ymmetrical treatment in both theory and practice of evidence proffered to discharge the respective burdens of proof facing the agencies and merging parties is necessary for consumer- welfare based merger policy.''). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Once it is understood that a safe harbor should apply, it becomes obvious that, for the safe harbor to be effective, the threshold should not move. As the plane crash survivors in LOST can attest, a harbor on an island that cannot be found and that can be moved at will is hardly ``safe.'' \28\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \28\ Move the Island, LOST--Move the Island, YouTube (Nov. 17, 2008), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fa57rVkLal4. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- In my view, the Commission should adopt a GUPPI-based safe harbor in unilateral effects investigations where data are available. While reasonable minds can and should debate the optimal definition of a ``small'' GUPPI, my own view is that 5 percent is a reasonable starting point for discussion. Furthermore, failure to adopt a safe harbor could raise concerns about the potential for divergence between Commission and Division policy in unilateral effects merger investigations.\29\ What would be most problematic, however, is if, rather than moving toward a GUPPI-based safe harbor, the FTC were to use GUPPI thresholds to employ a presumption of competitive harm.\30\ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \29\ I do not take a position as to how the Division currently uses the GUPPI analysis. But see Majority Statement, supra note 7, at 4 n.12. However, public statements by the Division and the Commission--the only sources upon which business firms and the antitrust bar can rely--suggest there are material differences. Compare id. at 3 (``[W]hether the value of diverted sales is considered `proportionately small' compared to lost revenues will vary from industry to industry and firm to firm.'') with Shapiro, supra note 3, at 24 (``Current Division practice is to treat the value of diverted sales as proportionately small if it is no more than 5% of the lost revenues.''). \30\ A GUPPI-based safe harbor of the type endorsed by the Merger Guidelines implies a GUPPI above the threshold is necessary but not sufficient for liability. A GUPPI-based presumption of harm implies a GUPPI above the threshold is sufficient but not necessary for liability. Unfortunately, the use of GUPPIs here is more consistent with the latter than the former. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- [[Page 42819]] For these reasons, I dissent in part from and concur in part with --------------------------------------------------------------------------- the Commission's decision. [FR Doc. 2015-17767 Filed 7-17-15; 8:45 am] BILLING CODE 6750-01-P
![42810 Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 138 / Monday, July 20, 2015 / Notices
may file a comment through that Web you prefer to file your comment on for making sure that your comment does
site. paper, write ‘‘Dollar Tree, Inc. and not include any sensitive health
If you file your comment on paper, Family Dollar Stores, Inc.—Consent information, like medical records or
write ‘‘Red Flags Rule PRA, Project No. Agreement; File No. 141–0207’’ on your other individually identifiable health
P095406’’ on your comment and on the comment and on the envelope, and mail information. In addition, do not include
envelope, and mail or deliver it to the your comment to the following address: any ‘‘[t]rade secret or any commercial or
following address: Federal Trade Federal Trade Commission, Office of the financial information which . . . is
Commission, Office of the Secretary, Secretary, 600 Pennsylvania Avenue privileged or confidential,’’ as discussed
Constitution Center, 400 7th Street SW., NW., Suite CC–5610 (Annex D), in Section 6(f) of the FTC Act, 15 U.S.C.
5th Floor, Suite CC–5610 (Annex J), Washington, DC 20580, or deliver your § 46(f), and FTC Rule 4.10(a)(2), 16 CFR
Washington, DC 20024. If possible, comment to the following address: § 4.10(a)(2). In particular, do not include
submit your paper comment to the Federal Trade Commission, Office of the competitively sensitive information
Commission by courier or overnight Secretary, Constitution Center, 400 7th such as costs, sales statistics,
service. Street SW., 5th Floor, Suite 5610 inventories, formulas, patterns, devices,
The FTC Act and other laws that the (Annex D), Washington, DC 20024. manufacturing processes, or customer
Commission administers permit the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: names.
collection of public comments to Sean Pugh, Bureau of Competition, If you want the Commission to give
consider and use in this proceeding as (202–326–3201), 600 Pennsylvania your comment confidential treatment,
appropriate. The Commission will Avenue NW., Washington, DC 20580. you must file it in paper form, with a
consider all timely and responsive request for confidential treatment, and
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Pursuant
public comments that it receives on or you have to follow the procedure
to Section 6(f) of the Federal Trade explained in FTC Rule 4.9(c), 16 CFR
before September 18, 2015. For
Commission Act, 15 U.S.C. 46(f), and § 4.9(c).1 Your comment will be kept
information on the Commission’s
FTC Rule 2.34, 16 CFR 2.34, notice is confidential only if the FTC General
privacy policy, including routine uses
hereby given that the above-captioned Counsel, in his or her sole discretion,
by the Privacy Act, see http://
consent agreement containing consent grants your request in accordance with
www.ftc.gov/ftc/privacy.htm.
orders to cease and desist, having been the law and the public interest.
David C. Shonka, filed with and accepted, subject to final Postal mail addressed to the
Principal Deputy General Counsel. approval, by the Commission, has been Commission is subject to delay due to
[FR Doc. 2015–17764 Filed 7–17–15; 8:45 am] placed on the public record for a period heightened security screening. As a
BILLING CODE 6750–01–P
of thirty (30) days. The following result, we encourage you to submit your
Analysis to Aid Public Comment comments online. To make sure that the
describes the terms of the consent Commission considers your online
FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION agreement, and the allegations in the comment, you must file it at https://
complaint. An electronic copy of the ftcpublic.commentworks.com/ftc/
[File No. 141 0207]
full text of the consent agreement dollartreeconsent by following the
Dollar Tree, Inc. and Family Dollar package can be obtained from the FTC instructions on the web-based form. If
Stores, Inc.; Analysis of Proposed Home Page (for July 2, 2015), on the this Notice appears at http://
Consent Orders To Aid Public World Wide Web, at http://www.ftc.gov/ www.regulations.gov/#!home, you also
Comment os/actions.shtm. may file a comment through that Web
You can file a comment online or on site.
AGENCY: Federal Trade Commission. paper. For the Commission to consider If you file your comment on paper,
ACTION: Proposed consent agreement. your comment, we must receive it on or write ‘‘Dollar Tree, Inc. and Family
before August 3, 2015. Write ‘‘Dollar Dollar Stores, Inc.—Consent Agreement;
SUMMARY: The consent agreement in this Tree, Inc. and Family Dollar Stores, File No. 141–0207’’ on your comment
matter settles alleged violations of Inc.—Consent Agreement; File No. 141– and on the envelope, and mail your
federal law prohibiting unfair methods 0207’’ on your comment. Your comment to the following address:
of competition. The attached Analysis to comment—including your name and Federal Trade Commission, Office of the
Aid Public Comment describes both the your state—will be placed on the public Secretary, 600 Pennsylvania Avenue
allegations in the draft complaint and record of this proceeding, including, to NW., Suite CC–5610 (Annex D),
the terms of the consent orders— the extent practicable, on the public Washington, DC 20580, or deliver your
embodied in the consent agreement— Commission Web site, at http:// comment to the following address:
that would settle these allegations. www.ftc.gov/os/publiccomments.shtm. Federal Trade Commission, Office of the
DATES: Comments must be received on As a matter of discretion, the Secretary, Constitution Center, 400 7th
or before August 3, 2015. Commission tries to remove individuals’ Street SW., 5th Floor, Suite 5610
ADDRESSES: Interested parties may file a home contact information from (Annex D), Washington, DC 20024. If
comment at https:// comments before placing them on the possible, submit your paper comment to
ftcpublic.commentworks.com/ftc/ Commission Web site. the Commission by courier or overnight
dollartreeconsent online or on paper, by Because your comment will be made service.
following the instructions in the public, you are solely responsible for Visit the Commission Web site at
Request for Comment part of the making sure that your comment does http://www.ftc.gov to read this Notice
mstockstill on DSK4VPTVN1PROD with NOTICES
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION section not include any sensitive personal and the news release describing it. The
below. Write ‘‘Dollar Tree, Inc. and information, like anyone’s Social FTC Act and other laws that the
Family Dollar Stores, Inc.—Consent Security number, date of birth, driver’s
Agreement; File No. 141–0207’’ on your license number or other state 1 In particular, the written request for confidential
comment and file your comment online identification number or foreign country treatment that accompanies the comment must
include the factual and legal basis for the request,
at https://ftcpublic.commentworks.com/ equivalent, passport number, financial and must identify the specific portions of the
ftc/dollartreeconsent by following the account number, or credit or debit card comment to be withheld from the public record. See
instructions on the web-based form. If number. You are also solely responsible FTC Rule 4.9(c), 16 CFR § 4.9(c).
VerDate Sep<11>2014 16:30 Jul 17, 2015 Jkt 235001 PO 00000 Frm 00024 Fmt 4703 Sfmt 4703 E:\FR\FM\20JYN1.SGM 20JYN1](https://thefederalregister.org/doc/80_FR_42948/page/1.svg)
![42814 Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 138 / Monday, July 20, 2015 / Notices
Statement of the Federal Trade the local markets where it may likely to other retail stores, ordinary course of
Commission harm competition, the Commission business documents and data supplied
The Federal Trade Commission has considered multiple sources of by Dollar Tree and Family Dollar,
accepted a proposed settlement to quantitative and qualitative evidence. information from other market
resolve the likely anticompetitive effects One component of the investigation participants, and analyses conducted by
of Dollar Tree, Inc.’s proposed $9.2 involved a Gross Upward Pricing various state attorneys general who were
billion acquisition of Family Dollar Pressure Index (‘‘GUPPI’’) analysis. As also investigating the transaction. After
Stores, Inc.1 We have reason to believe described in the 2010 Horizontal Merger considering all of this evidence, the
that, absent a remedy, the proposed Guidelines, this mode of analysis can Commission identified specific local
acquisition is likely to substantially serve as a useful indicator of whether a markets where the acquisition would be
lessen competition between Dollar Tree merger involving differentiated products likely to harm competition and arrived
and Family Dollar in numerous local is likely to result in unilateral at the list of 330 stores slated for
markets. Under the terms of the anticompetitive effects.2 Such effects divestiture.
proposed consent order, Dollar Tree and can arise ‘‘when the merger gives the In his statement, Commissioner
Family Dollar are required to divest 330 merged entity an incentive to raise the Wright criticizes the way that the
stores to a Commission-approved buyer. price of a product previously sold by Commission used the GUPPI analysis in
As we explain below, we believe the one merging firm’’ because the merged this case and argues that GUPPIs below
proposed divestitures preserve entity stands to profit from any sales a certain threshold should be treated as
competition in the markets adversely that are then diverted to products that a ‘‘safe harbor.’’ 5 We respectfully
affected by the acquisition and are would have been ‘‘previously sold by disagree.
therefore in the public interest. the other merging firm.’’ 3 Using the As an initial matter, Commissioner
Dollar Tree operates over 5,000 value of diverted sales as an indicator of Wright mischaracterizes the way that
discount general merchandise retail the upward pricing pressure resulting the GUPPI analysis was used in this
stores across the United States under from the merger, a GUPPI is defined as case. Contrary to his suggestion, GUPPIs
two banners which follow somewhat the value of diverted sales that would be were not used as a rigid presumption of
different business models. In its Dollar gained by the second firm measured in harm. As explained above, they were
Tree banner stores, Dollar Tree sells a proportion to the revenues that would used only as an initial screen to identify
wide selection of everyday basic, be lost by the first firm. If the ‘‘value of those markets where further
seasonal, closeout, and promotional diverted sales is proportionately small, investigation was warranted. The
merchandise—all for $1 or less. At its significant unilateral price effects are Commission then proceeded to consider
Deals banner stores, Dollar Tree sells an unlikely.’’ 4 the results of the GUPPI analysis in
expanded assortment of this The Commission’s investigation conjunction with numerous other
merchandise at prices that may go above involved thousands of Dollar Tree and sources of information.6 Based on this
the $1 price point but are generally less Family Dollar stores with overlapping complete body of evidence, we have
than $10. Family Dollar operates over geographic markets. A GUPPI analysis reason to believe that, without the
8,000 discount general merchandise served as a useful initial screen to flag proposed divestitures, the acquisition
retail stores. Family Dollar sells an those markets where the transaction would substantially lessen competition
assortment of consumables, home might likely harm competition and in each of the relevant local markets.
products, apparel and accessories, those where it might pose little or no Our market-by-market review showed
seasonal items, and electronic risk to competition. As a general matter, that the model of competition
merchandise at prices generally less Dollar Tree and Family Dollar stores underlying the GUPPI analysis was
than $10, including items priced at or with relatively low GUPPIs suggested largely consistent with other available
under $1. that the transaction was unlikely to evidence regarding the closeness of
Dollar Tree and Family Dollar harm competition, unless the competition between the parties’ stores
compete head-to-head in numerous investigation uncovered specific reasons in each local market. For example,
local markets across the United States. why the GUPPIs may have understated stores with high GUPPIs were generally
They are close competitors in terms of the potential for anticompetitive effects. found in markets in which there were
format, pricing, customer service, Conversely, Dollar Tree and Family few or no other conveniently located
product offerings, and location. When Dollar stores with relatively high discount general merchandise retail
making competitive decisions regarding GUPPIs suggested that the transaction stores. The GUPPI analysis did have
pricing, product assortment, and other was likely to harm competition, subject some limitations, however. For
salient aspects of their businesses, to evidence or analysis indicating that example, there were Family Dollar
Dollar Tree and Family Dollar focus the GUPPIs may have overstated the stores with relatively low GUPPIs in
most directly on the actions and potential for anticompetitive effects. markets that were nevertheless price-
responses of each other and other While the GUPPI analysis was an zoned to Dollar Tree stores, which
‘‘dollar store’’ chains, while also paying important screen for the Commission’s meant that if Dollar Tree stores were
close attention to Walmart. In many inquiry, it was only a starting point. The
local markets, Dollar Tree and Family Commission considered several other 5 Statement of Commissioner Joshua D. Wright
Dollar operate stores in close proximity sources of evidence in assessing the Dissenting in Part and Concurring in Part, Dollar
transaction’s likely competitive effects, Tree, Inc. and Family Dollar Stores, Inc., File No.
to each other, often representing the 141–0207.
including additional detail regarding the
only or the majority of conveniently 6 As Joseph Farrell and Carl Shapiro have noted,
mstockstill on DSK4VPTVN1PROD with NOTICES
geographic proximity of the merging
located discount general merchandise ‘‘[r]eal-world mergers are complex, and our
parties’ stores relative to each other and
retail stores in a neighborhood. proposed test, like the concentration-based test, is
To evaluate the likely competitive consciously oversimplified. . . . In the end, the
2 U.S. Dept. of Justice and Fed. Trade Comm’n,
evaluation of any merger that is thoroughly
effects of this transaction and identify Horizontal Merger Guidelines § 6.1 (2010), available investigated or litigated may come down to the
at https://www.ftc.gov/sites/default/files/ fullest feasible analysis of effects.’’ Joseph Farrell &
1 This statement reflects the views of Chairwoman attachments/merger-review/100819hmg.pdf. Carl Shapiro, Antitrust Evaluation of Horizontal
3 Id.
Ramirez and Commissioners Brill, Ohlhausen, and Mergers: An Economic Alternative to Market
McSweeny. 4 Id. Definition, 10 B.E. J. Theoretical Econ. 1, 26 (2010).
VerDate Sep<11>2014 16:30 Jul 17, 2015 Jkt 235001 PO 00000 Frm 00028 Fmt 4703 Sfmt 4703 E:\FR\FM\20JYN1.SGM 20JYN1](https://thefederalregister.org/doc/80_FR_42948/page/5.svg)
![Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 138 / Monday, July 20, 2015 / Notices 42815
removed as competition, then the prices is a basis for the recognition of a GUPPI Statement of Commissioner Joshua D.
of certain items at those Family Dollar safe harbor. Wright Dissenting in Part and
stores would likely go up. The GUPPI Accordingly, in any case where a Concurring in Part
analysis also was not sufficiently GUPPI analysis is used, the Commission The Commission has voted to issue a
sensitive to differentiate between Dollar
will consider the particular factual Complaint and a Decision & Order
Tree and Family Dollar stores that were
circumstances and evaluate other against Dollar Tree, Inc. (‘‘Dollar Tree’’)
in the same shopping plaza from those
sources of quantitative and qualitative and Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (‘‘Family
that were almost a mile away from each
evidence.12 As with other quantitative Dollar’’) to remedy the allegedly
other. For these situations, we
evidence such as market shares and anticompetitive effects of the proposed
appropriately relied on other evidence
HHIs, we believe that GUPPIs should be acquisition by Dollar Tree of Family
to reach a judgment about the closeness
of competition.7 considered in the context of all other Dollar. I dissent in part from and concur
More broadly, Commissioner Wright’s reasonably available evidence. The 2010 in part with the Commission’s decision.
view that the Commission should Horizontal Merger Guidelines do not I dissent in part because in 27 markets
identify and treat GUPPIs below a instruct otherwise.13 For all of these I disagree with the Commission’s
certain threshold as a ‘‘safe harbor’’ reasons, we believe it is appropriate to conclusion that there is reason to
ignores the reality that merger analysis use GUPPIs flexibly and as merely one believe the proposed transaction
is inherently fact-specific. The manner violates the Clayton Act.
tool of analysis in the Commission’s
in which GUPPI analysis is used will The record evidence includes a
assessment of unilateral anticompetitive
vary depending on the factual quantitative measure of the value of
effects.
circumstances, the available data, and diverted sales as well as various forms
the other evidence gathered during an By direction of the Commission, of qualitative evidence. The value of
investigation. Moreover, whether the Commissioner Wright not participating. diverted sales is typically measured as
value of diverted sales is considered the product of the diversion ratio
‘‘proportionately small’’ compared to consequence, the per se rule is appropriate only between the merging parties’ products—
after courts have had considerable experience with the diversion ratio between two
lost revenues will vary from industry to
the type of restraint at issue, . . . and only if courts products is the percentage of unit sales
industry and firm to firm.8 For example, can predict with confidence that it would be
intense competition between merging invalidated in all or almost all instances under the
lost by one product when its price rises,
firms may cause margins to be very low, rule of reason, . . .’’); Cal. Dental Ass’n v. FTC, 526 that are captured by the second
which could produce a low GUPPI even U.S. 756, 781 (1999) (‘‘The object is to see whether product—and the profit margin of the
in the presence of very high diversion the experience of the market has been so clear, or second product. When the value of
ratios. Such conditions could produce a necessarily will be, that a confident conclusion diverted sales is measured in proportion
about the principal tendency of a restriction will to ‘‘the lost revenues attributable to the
false negative implying that the merger follow from a quick (or at least quicker) look, in
is not likely to harm competition when place of a more sedulous one.’’); ProMedica Health
reduction in unit sales resulting from
in fact it is.9 Sys., Inc. v. FTC, 749 F.3d 559, 570, 571 (6th Cir. the price increase,’’ 1 it is the ‘‘gross
Indeed, we agree with Commissioner 2014) (noting that ‘‘the strong correlation between upward pricing pressure index,’’ or
Wright that ‘‘a GUPPI-based market share and price, and the degree to which ‘‘GUPPI.’’ The GUPPI is an economic
presumption of competitive harm is this merger would further concentrate markets that tool used to score or rank the incentives
inappropriate at this stage of economic are already highly concentrated—converge in a for potential unilateral price effects. In
manner that fully supports the Commission’s
learning.’’ 10 We think that a GUPPI- the markets where I depart from the
application of a presumption of illegality’’ but also
based safe harbor is equally noting that ‘‘the Commission did not merely rest Commission’s decision the GUPPI is
inappropriate. In antitrust law, bright- upon the presumption, but instead discussed a below 5 percent, indicating insignificant
line rules and presumptions rest on wide range of evidence that buttresses it’’). upward pricing pressure even before
accumulated experience and economic 12 See Carl Shapiro, The 2010 Horizontal Merger efficiencies or entry are taken into
learning that the transaction or conduct Guidelines: From Hedgehog to Fox in Forty Years, account, and weak incentives for
in question is likely or unlikely to harm 77 Antitrust L.J. 701, 729 (2010) (‘‘The value of unilateral price increases. In my view,
diverted sales is an excellent simple measure for
competition.11 We do not believe there diagnosing or scoring unilateral price effects, but it
the available quantitative and
cannot capture the full richness of competition in qualitative evidence are insufficient to
7 Commissioner Wright cites the Albertson’s/
real-world industries. Indeed, as stressed above, all support a reason to believe the proposed
Safeway transaction as another recent case in which
a GUPPI analysis was used. See Wright Statement
of the quantitative methods discussed here must be transaction will harm competition in
used in conjunction with the broader set of these markets. I write separately to
at 2 n.6. To be precise, the Commission analyzed
qualitative evidence that the Agencies assemble
that transaction using diversion ratios, not GUPPI explain more fully the basis for my
scores, but in any event, Commissioner Wright during a merger investigation.’’); Farrell & Shapiro,
Upward Pricing Pressure, supra note 8, at 6 dissent in these markets.
himself voted to accept the consent order in that
case. (‘‘Whatever measure is used for screening purposes, I also write to address an important
8 Marginal cost efficiencies, as well as pass- it is important that the full analysis give proper merger policy issue implicated by
through rates, also will vary from industry to weight to all the available evidence.’’). today’s decision—that is, whether the
industry and from firm to firm. The pass-through Notwithstanding Commissioner Wright’s suggestion FTC should adopt a safe harbor in
rate will determine the magnitude of the post- to the contrary, we do not believe that the
merger unilateral price effects. Commission’s use of GUPPIs as a tool for assessing
unilateral effects merger investigations
9 Joseph Farrell & Carl Shapiro, Upward Pricing
unilateral effects differs materially from their use by by defining a GUPPI threshold below
Pressure and Critical Loss Analysis: Response, CPI the Department of Justice. which it is presumed competitive harm
Antitrust J. 1, 6–7 & n.15 (Feb. 2010); Farrell & 13 Recognizing in the 2010 Horizontal Merger is unlikely. The Merger Guidelines
Shapiro, Antitrust Evaluation of Horizontal
mstockstill on DSK4VPTVN1PROD with NOTICES
Mergers, supra note 6, at 13–14.
Guidelines that when the ‘‘value of diverted sales clearly contemplate such a safe harbor.
10 Wright Statement, supra note 5, at 8 & nn.23 is proportionately small, significant unilateral price The Merger Guidelines explain that ‘‘[i]f
effects are unlikely’’ does not necessarily mean that
& 24 (citing commentators’ concerns and criticisms
‘‘proportionately small’’ should be reduced to some
the value of diverted sales is
regarding the use of GUPPI analysis generally). proportionately small, significant
Such concerns and criticisms, if valid, would apply numerical value that applies in all cases. See
equally to the wisdom of using GUPPIs to recognize Merger Guidelines, supra note 2, § 1 (‘‘These
a safe harbor. Guidelines should be read with the awareness that 1 U.S. Dep’t of Justice & Fed. Trade Comm’n,
11 See, e.g., Leegin Creative Leather Prods., Inc. v. merger analysis does not consist of uniform Horizontal Merger Guidelines § 6.1 n.11 (2010)
PSKS, Inc., 551 U.S. 877, 886–87 (2007) (‘‘As a application of a single methodology.’’). [hereinafter Merger Guidelines].
VerDate Sep<11>2014 16:30 Jul 17, 2015 Jkt 235001 PO 00000 Frm 00029 Fmt 4703 Sfmt 4703 E:\FR\FM\20JYN1.SGM 20JYN1](https://thefederalregister.org/doc/80_FR_42948/page/6.svg)
![42816 Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 138 / Monday, July 20, 2015 / Notices
unilateral price effects are unlikely.’’ 2 announced in the Commission’s attempts a rough measure of upward
In other words, the Merger Guidelines statement today.7 pricing pressure without a full blown
recognize that if the GUPPI is small, This is unfortunate. The legal, analysis—a symmetrical approach
significant unilateral price effects are economic, and policy case for the would include a standard efficiencies
unlikely. GUPPI-based safe harbor contemplated deduction which would be applied to
Without more, one might reasonably by the Merger Guidelines is strong.8 account for the downward pricing
conclude it is unclear whether the There are a number of reasons why such pressure from the marginal-cost
Merger Guidelines merely offer a truism a safe harbor might be desirable as a efficiencies that can typically be
about the relationship between the matter of antitrust policy if sufficiently expected to result from transactions.9
GUPPI and likely unilateral price effects supported by economic theory and This approach would permit the
or invite the agencies to take on the task evidence. Efficient resource allocation— identification of a gross-upward-pricing-
of identifying a safe harbor of general expending agency resources on the pressure threshold that triggers
applicability across cases. But there is transactions most likely to raise serious additional scrutiny.10
more. A principal drafter of the Merger competitive concerns and quickly Yet a third reason a safe harbor might
Guidelines has explained the Merger dispensing with those that do not—is be desirable is to compensate the well-
Guidelines’ reference to a one such goal. known feature of GUPPI-based scoring
‘‘proportionately small’’ value of A second reason a safe harbor for methods to predict harm for any
diverted sales was intended to establish proportionately small diversion might positive diversion ratio—that is, even
a GUPPI safe harbor. The Department of be desirable antitrust policy is to for distant substitutes—by
Justice’s Antitrust Division (‘‘Division’’), compensate for the sources of distinguishing de minimis GUPPI levels
consistent with this interpretation of the downward pricing pressure not from those that warrant additional
Merger Guidelines, publicly announced measured by the GUPPI but expected scrutiny.11 The Merger Guidelines
precisely such a safe harbor when the with most transactions, including contemplate a ‘‘safe harbor’’ because it
GUPPI is less than 5 percent.3 Further, efficiencies, entry, or repositioning. ‘‘reflects that a small amount of upward
there is significant intellectual support Some have argued that—as a GUPPI pricing pressure is unlikely . . . to
for a GUPPI-based safe harbor among correspond to any actual post-merger
economists 4—once again including the diversion or GUPPI-based analysis was a step price increase.’’ 12 Carl Shapiro
principal drafters of the Merger forward relative to relying exclusively upon
structural analysis. The fact that there were stores
explained shortly after adoption of the
Guidelines.5 The Commission, however, identified for divestiture with implied GUPPIs less Merger Guidelines, on behalf of the
has rejected the safe harbor approach than 5 percent was unique. It is now a trend Division, that ‘‘Current Division practice
both in practice—indeed, the reinforced by a Commission decision to reject a is to treat the value of diverted sales as
GUPPI-based safe harbor—a decision I do not
Commission has recently entered into believe is in the public interest.
proportionately small if it is no more
another consent involving divestitures Regarding Cerberus, it is worth pointing out than 5% of the lost revenues.’’ 13
in markets with GUPPI scores below 5 further that even a careful reader of the public Against these benefits of adopting a
percent 6—and as a matter of the policy documents in that case would come away with the GUPPI-based safe harbor, the
impression that the Commission’s analysis was Commission must weigh the cost of
largely structural, and concluded a number of six-
2 Id. § 6.1 (emphasis added); see Steven C. Salop,
to-five mergers were presumptively reducing its own flexibility and
Serge X. Moresi & John Woodbury, CRA anticompetitive. See Analysis of Agreement prosecutorial discretion. This begs the
Competition Memo, Scoring Unilateral Effects with
the GUPPI: The Approach of the New Horizontal
Containing Consent Order to Aid Public Comment question: How likely are mergers within
Exhibit A, id. An ancillary benefit of the the proposed safe harbor to be
Merger Guidelines 2 (Aug. 31, 2010), available at transparency reluctantly generated by today’s
http://crai.com/sites/default/files/publications/ Commission statement is that the antitrust anticompetitive? The benefits of this
Commentary-on-the-GUPPI_0.pdf. community is now on notice that more flexibility are proportional to the
3 Carl Shapiro, Deputy Ass’t Att’y Gen. for Econ.,
sophisticated economic tools were used in that probability that the Commission’s
Antitrust Div., U.S. Dep’t of Justice, Update from matter, how they were used, and that the potential
the Antitrust Division, Remarks as Prepared for the structural policy change signaled by those public
economic analysis leads them to
ABA Antitrust Law Fall Forum 24 (Nov. 18 2010). documents does not appear to describe accurately conclude that mergers with a GUPPI of
4 See, e.g., Salop, Moresi & Woodbury, supra note the Commission’s complete analysis in that case. less than 5 percent are anticompetitive.
2, at 2 (explaining that ‘‘a GUPPI of less than 5% 7 Statement of the Federal Trade Commission at
I am not aware of any transactions since
would be reasonably treated as evidence that ‘the 3, Dollar Tree, Inc., FTC File No. 141–0207 (July 13,
value of diverted sales is proportionately small’ and 2015) [hereinafter Majority Statement] (‘‘[A] GUPPI- 9 Farrell & Shapiro, supra note 5, at 10–12.
hence that the proposed merger is unlikely to raise based safe harbor is . . . inappropriate.’’).
10 See id. at 12.
unilateral effects concerns’’). 8 A second question is whether a presumption of
5 See Joseph Farrell & Carl Shapiro, Antitrust 11 James A. Keyte & Kenneth B. Schwartz, ‘‘Tally-
competitive harm should follow, as a matter of
Evaluation of Horizontal Mergers: An Economic economic theory and empirical evidence, from a Ho!’’: UPP and the 2010 Horizontal Merger
Alternative to Market Definition, 10 B.E. J. demonstration of a GUPPI above a certain threshold Guidelines, 7 Antitrust L.J. 587, 628 (2010) (‘‘an
Theoretical Econ. 1 (2010). value. There appears to be a consensus that the uncalibrated tool cannot have predictive value as a
6 See Cerberus Institutional Partners V, L.P., FTC answer to this question, at this point, is no. I agree. screen if it always indicates postmerger price
File No. 141–0108 (July 2, 2015). There, though one See, e.g., Thomas A. Lambert, Respecting the Limits pressure’’).
12 Shapiro, supra note 3, at 24. Shapiro further
could not possibly infer this from the public-facing of Antitrust: The Roberts Court Versus the
documents in the case, the Commission applied a Enforcement Agencies 13 (Heritage Foundation cautioned that, although a GUPPI analysis ‘‘can be
diversion ratio threshold to identify stores for Legal Memorandum No. 144, Jan. 28, 2015) (the highly informative, the Agencies understand full
divestiture. To be accurate, a GUPPI threshold GUPPI ‘‘has not been empirically verified as a well that measuring upward pricing pressure . . .
could be implied from the Commission’s analysis means of identifying anticompetitive mergers’’); typically is not the end of the story . . . .
and, as algebraically mindful readers will note, Steven C. Salop, The Evolution and Vitality of Repositioning, entry, innovation, and efficiencies
setting a diversion ratio threshold given profit Merger Presumptions: A Decision-Theoretic must also be considered.’’ Id. at 26.
margin data and a predicted price increase is not Approach 40–41 (Georgetown Law Faculty 13 Id. at 24. Others have interpreted this speech
mstockstill on DSK4VPTVN1PROD with NOTICES
analytically distinguishable from the analysis in Publications and Other Works, Working Paper No. as clearly announcing Division policy. See Salop,
this matter. The Commission rightly points out that 1304, 2014), available at http:// supra note 8, at 43 & n.105 (‘‘In a speech while he
I voted in favor of the consent in Cerberus. As to scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/facpub/1304/ was Deputy AAG, Carl Shapiro also specified a
whether I am merely being inconsistent in my (‘‘The 2010 Merger Guidelines do not adopt an GUPPI safe harbor of 5%. As a speech by the
views on the role of GUPPIs in merger analysis or, anticompetitive enforcement presumption based on Deputy AAG, this statement appeared to reflect DOJ
alternatively, there is some other more reasonable high values of the GUPPI score. This was a practical policy.’’ (citing Shapiro, supra note 3)). Other
explanation for my votes, I can provide the policy decision at this time because the use of the economists agree that a GUPPI safe harbor should
explanation and let readers decide. In Cerberus, I GUPPI was new to much of the defense bar and the apply. E.g., Farrell & Shapiro, supra note 5, at 10;
voted for the consent on the basis that the use of courts.’’). Salop, Moresi & Woodbury, supra note 2, at 2.
VerDate Sep<11>2014 16:30 Jul 17, 2015 Jkt 235001 PO 00000 Frm 00030 Fmt 4703 Sfmt 4703 E:\FR\FM\20JYN1.SGM 20JYN1](https://thefederalregister.org/doc/80_FR_42948/page/7.svg)
![Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 138 / Monday, July 20, 2015 / Notices 42817
the Merger Guidelines were adopted is the application of per se rules in within the safe harbor to move
other than the two already mentioned price-fixing cases.16 This presumption forward.19
that meet these criteria. The domain in of illegality is not based upon a belief Whether the Commission should
which flexibility would be reduced with that it is impossible for a horizontal adopt a GUPPI-based safe harbor is
adoption of a reasonable safe harbor is restraint among competitors to increase particularly relevant in the instant
small and the costs of doing so welfare. Rather, the per se prohibition matter, as the FTC had data sufficient to
correspondingly low. on naked price fixing ‘‘reflects a calculate GUPPIs for Dollar Tree,
The Commission rejects a GUPPI safe judgment that the costs of identifying Deals,20 and Family Dollar stores. The
harbor on the grounds that such an exceptions to the general rule so far sheer number of stores owned and
approach ‘‘ignores the reality that outweigh the costs of occasionally operated by the parties rendered
merger analysis is inherently fact- condemning conduct that might upon individualized, in-depth analysis of the
specific.’’ 14 The Commission appears further inspection prove to be competitive nuances of each and every
especially concerned that a GUPPI- acceptable, that it is preferable not to market difficult, if not impossible, to
based safe harbor might result in a false entertain defenses to the conduct at conduct. GUPPI calculations provided
negative—that is, it is possible that a all.’’ 17 Similar decision-theoretic logic an efficient and workable alternative to
merger with a GUPPI less than 5 percent explains, for example, the presumption identifying the small fraction of markets
harms competition. This objection to that above-cost prices are lawful.18 A in which the transaction may be
safe harbors and bright-line rules and GUPPI-based presumption would be anticompetitive. This was a tremendous
presumptions is both conceptually based upon the same economic logic— amount of work and I want to commend
misguided and is in significant tension not that small-GUPPI mergers can never staff on taking this approach. Staff
with antitrust doctrine and agency result in anticompetitive effects, but identified a GUPPI threshold such that
practice. Merger analysis is, of course, rather that mergers involving small stores with GUPPIs greater than the
inherently fact specific. One can accept GUPPIs are sufficiently unlikely to threshold were identified for
that reality, as well as the reality that result in unilateral price increases such divestiture. About half of the 330 stores
evidence is both imperfect and can be that incurring the costs of identifying divested as part of the Commission’s
costly to obtain, and yet still conclude exceptions to the safe harbor is less Order were identified through this
that the optimal legal test from a efficient than simply allowing mergers process.
consumer welfare perspective is a rule What about the other stores? The
rather than a standard. This is a basic 16 See Broad. Music, Inc. v. Columbia Broad. Sys., Commission asserts I
insight of decision theory, which Inc., 441 U.S. 1, 19–20 (1979) (‘‘More generally, in ‘‘mischaracterize[]’’ its use of GUPPIs
provides a lens through which characterizing this conduct under the per se rule, and that ‘‘GUPPIs were not used as a
our inquiry must focus on . . . whether the practice
economists and legal scholars have long facially appears to be one that would always or
rigid presumption of harm.’’ 21 It claims
evaluated antitrust legal rules, burdens, almost always tend to restrict competition and that GUPPIs were used only as ‘‘an
and presumptions.15 The Commission’s decrease output.’’). initial screen’’ to identify markets for
assertion that the mere possibility of 17 Andrew I. Gavil, William E. Kovacic & Jonathan further analysis, and that the
false negatives undermines in the B. Baker, Antitrust Law in Perspective: Cases, Commission ‘‘proceeded to consider the
Concepts and Problems in Competition Policy 104–
slightest the case for a safe harbor 05 (2d ed. 2008); see Barry Wright Corp. v. ITT
results of the GUPPI analysis in
reveals a misunderstanding of the Grinnell Corp., 724 F.2d 227, 234 (1st Cir. 1983) conjunction with numerous other
economic analysis of legal rules. The (‘‘Rules that seek to embody every economic sources of information.’’ 22 The evidence
relevant question is not which legal rule complexity and qualification may well, through the suggests otherwise. One might
vagaries of administration, prove counter-
drives false positives or false negatives productive, undercutting the very economic ends
reasonably hypothesize that further
to zero, but rather which legal rule they seek to serve. Thus, despite the theoretical consideration and analysis of
minimizes the sum of the welfare costs possibility of finding instances in which horizontal
associated with false negatives, false price fixing, or vertical price fixing, are 19 The Commission asserts that a GUPPI safe
economically justified, the courts have held them harbor cannot be justified by economic theory and
positives, and the costs of obtaining unlawful per se, concluding the administrative evidence unless a presumption of liability can also
evidence and otherwise administering virtues of simplicity outweigh the occasional be supported. I appreciate the Commission
the law. ‘economic’ loss.’’); Herbert Hovenkamp, The clarifying its view, but I believe it to be based upon
Existing antitrust law regularly Antitrust Enterprise: Principle and Execution 50 a false equivalence. The Commission appears to
(2005) (‘‘[N]ot every anticompetitive practice can be misunderstand the difference between evidence
embraces bright-line rules and condemned.’’); Thomas A. Lambert, Book Review, sufficient to conclude harm is likely and evidence
presumptions—rejecting the flexibility Tweaking Antitrust’s Business Model, 85 Tex. L. sufficient to conclude harm is unlikely. These are
of a case-by-case standard taking full Rev. 153, 172 (2006) (‘‘Hovenkamp’s discussion of two very different economic propositions and it
account of facts that vary across predatory and limit pricing reflects a key theme that should not be surprising that one might be
runs throughout The Antitrust Enterprise: That substantiated while the other is not. For example,
industries and firms. A simple example antitrust rules should be easily administrable, even one might rationally be uncomfortable pointing to
if that means they must permit some the economic literature for support that mergers
14 Majority Statement, supra note 7, at 3. anticompetitive practices to go unpunished.’’). above a certain level of concentration are
15 See, e.g., C. Frederick Beckner III & Steven C. 18 See Brooke Grp. Ltd. v. Brown & Williamson sufficiently likely to harm competition to support
Salop, Decision Theory and Antitrust Rules, 67 Tobacco Corp., 509 U.S. 209, 226 (1993); see also a presumption of antitrust liability, but also
Antitrust L.J. 41 (1999); James C. Cooper, Luke M. Barry Wright Corp., 724 F.2d at 234 (‘‘Conversely, recognize the same body of economic theory and
Froeb, Dan O’Brien & Michael G. Vita, Vertical we must be concerned lest a rule or precedent that evidence would indeed support a safe harbor for
Antitrust Policy as a Problem of Inference, 23 Int’l authorizes a search for a particular type of mergers involving markets with thousands of
J. Indus. Org. 639 (2005); Frank H. Easterbrook, The undesirable pricing behavior end up by competitors. To the extent the Commission appeals
Limits of Antitrust, 63 Tex. L. Rev. 1 (1984); Isaac discouraging legitimate price competition. . . . [A] to academics who have raised concerns with
Ehrlich & Richard A. Posner, An Economic Analysis price cut that ends up with a price exceeding total GUPPI-based merger screens, my view clearly
mstockstill on DSK4VPTVN1PROD with NOTICES
of Legal Rulemaking, 3 J. Legal Stud. 257 (1974); cost—in all likelihood a cut made by a firm with differs from the Commission. The Commission’s
David S. Evans & A. Jorge Padilla, Designing market power—is almost certainly moving price in more important dispute, in my view, is with the
Antitrust Rules for Assessing Unilateral Practices: A the ‘right’ direction (towards the level that would Merger Guidelines and its principal drafters, who
Neo-Chicago Approach, 72 U. Chi. L. Rev. 27 be set in a competitive marketplace). The antitrust clearly contemplated such a safe harbor.
20 Deals is a separate banner under which Dollar
(2005); Keith N. Hylton & Michael Salinger, Tying laws very rarely reject such ‘birds in hand’ for the
Law and Policy: A Decision Theoretic Approach, 69 sake of more speculative (future low-price) ‘birds in Tree operates. See Majority Statement, supra note
Antitrust L.J. 469 (2001); Geoffrey A. Manne & the bush.’ To do so opens the door to similar 7, at 1.
21 Id. at 2.
Joshua D. Wright, Innovation and the Limits of speculative claims that might seek to legitimate
Antitrust, 6 J. Comp. L. & Econ. 153 (2010). even the most settled unlawful practices.’’). 22 Id.
VerDate Sep<11>2014 16:30 Jul 17, 2015 Jkt 235001 PO 00000 Frm 00031 Fmt 4703 Sfmt 4703 E:\FR\FM\20JYN1.SGM 20JYN1](https://thefederalregister.org/doc/80_FR_42948/page/8.svg)
![42818 Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 138 / Monday, July 20, 2015 / Notices
‘‘numerous sources of information’’ is no empirical evidence to support the Once it is understood that a safe
should result in both the identification use of GUPPI calculations in merger harbor should apply, it becomes obvious
of some stores above the GUPPI analysis on a standalone basis, let alone that, for the safe harbor to be effective,
threshold that were ultimately the use of a particular GUPPI threshold the threshold should not move. As the
determined unlikely to harm to predict whether a transaction is likely plane crash survivors in LOST can
competition as well as some stores with to substantially harm competition.24 I attest, a harbor on an island that cannot
GUPPIs below the threshold that also agree that in the context of a full- be found and that can be moved at will
nonetheless did create competitive scale evaluation of whether a proposed is hardly ‘‘safe.’’ 28
problems—that is, further scrutiny transaction is likely to harm
might reveal both false negatives and competition, GUPPI-based analysis can In my view, the Commission should
false positives. and should be interpreted in adopt a GUPPI-based safe harbor in
conjunction with all other available unilateral effects investigations where
The number of stores with GUPPIs
exceeding the identified threshold that, quantitative and qualitative evidence. data are available. While reasonable
after evaluation in conjunction with the The relevant policy question is a narrow minds can and should debate the
qualitative and other evidence described one: Whether there exists a GUPPI optimal definition of a ‘‘small’’ GUPPI,
by the Commission, were not slated for threshold below which the Commission my own view is that 5 percent is a
divestiture is nearly zero. This outcome should presumptively conclude a reasonable starting point for discussion.
is indistinguishable from the proposed transaction is unlikely to Furthermore, failure to adopt a safe
application of a presumption of violate the antitrust laws. harbor could raise concerns about the
competitive harm. The additional stores The FTC has not publicly endorsed a potential for divergence between
with GUPPIs below the threshold that GUPPI-based safe harbor of 5 percent Commission and Division policy in
were then identified for divestiture and disappointingly, has rejected the unilateral effects merger
based upon additional qualitative concept in its statement today. The investigations.29 What would be most
factors included a significant number of Commission’s interpretation is that problematic, however, is if, rather than
what is a ‘‘proportionately small’’ value moving toward a GUPPI-based safe
stores with GUPPIs below 5 percent.
of diverted sales should vary according
The ratio of stores falling below the harbor, the FTC were to use GUPPI
to the industry—and even the
GUPPI threshold but deemed thresholds to employ a presumption of
individual firms—in a given
problematic after further qualitative competitive harm.30
investigation.25 As discussed, I believe
evidence is taken into account to stores
this interpretation contradicts the letter
with GUPPIs above the threshold but in concentration and number of firms pre- and post-
and spirit of the Merger Guidelines.26
deemed not to raise competitive merger); Statement of the Federal Trade
Moreover, the Commission’s apparent Commission, ZF Friedrichshafen AG, FTC File No.
problems after qualitative evidence is
discomfort with safe harbors on the 141–0235 (May 8, 2015) (finding liability based
accounted for is unusual and
grounds that they are not sufficiently upon number of firms pre- and post-merger); Mem.
remarkably high. It is difficult to flexible to take into account the fact- in Supp. of Pl. Federal Trade Commission’s Mot. for
conceive of a distribution of qualitative intensive nature of antitrust analysis in
T.R.O. and Prelim. Inj. at 23, FTC, v. Sysco Corp.,
and other evidence occurring in real- 2015 WL 1501608, No. 1:15–cv–00256 (D.D.C. 2015)
any specific matter is difficult to (arguing that the proposed merger was
world markets that would result in this reconcile with its ready acceptance of presumptively unlawful based upon the holding of
ratio. Qualitative evidence should not presumptions and bright-line rules that United States v. Phila. Nat’l Bank, 374 U.S. 321
be a one-way ratchet confirming the trigger liability.27 (1963)). That the Commission’s tolerance of
Commission’s conclusion of likely presumptions that that satisfy its own prima facie
burden does not extend to safe harbors raises basic
anticompetitive effects when GUPPIs generate many false condemnations of mergers that questions about the symmetry of the burdens
are high and providing an independent are, on the whole, beneficial.’’). applied in its antitrust analysis. See Dissenting
basis for the same conclusion when 24 See Dennis W. Carlton, Revising the Horizontal Statement of Commissioner Joshua D. Wright 6,
GUPPIs are low. Merger Guidelines, 10 J. Competition L. & Econ. 1, Ardagh Group S.A., FTC File No. 131–0087 (June
7 (2010) (‘‘Perhaps most importantly, UPP [as 18, 2014) (‘‘[S]ymmetrical treatment in both theory
I applaud the FTC for taking described in the 2010 Merger Guidelines] is new and practice of evidence proffered to discharge the
important initial steps in applying more and little empirical analysis has been performed to respective burdens of proof facing the agencies and
sophisticated economic tools in validate its predictive value in assessing the merging parties is necessary for consumer-welfare
competitive effects of mergers.’’); Keyte & Schwartz, based merger policy.’’).
conducting merger analysis where the supra note 11, at 590 (discussing the 2010 Merger 28 Move the Island, LOST—Move the Island,
data are available to do so. Scoring Guidelines’ inclusion of the GUPPI and opining that YouTube (Nov. 17, 2008), https://
metrics for evaluating incentives for ‘‘in light of the [its] extremely light judicial record, www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fa57rVkLal4.
unilateral price increases are no doubt as well as the absence of demonstrated reliability 29 I do not take a position as to how the Division
in predicting real-world competitive effects, we currently uses the GUPPI analysis. But see Majority
a significant improvement over simply think it is premature, at best, to embrace [it] as a Statement, supra note 7, at 4 n.12. However, public
counting the number of firms in markets screening tool for merger review’’); Simons & Coate, statements by the Division and the Commission—
pre- and post-transaction. To be clear, it supra note 23 (‘‘Because screening mechanisms the only sources upon which business firms and the
bears repeating that I agree that a [such as the GUPPI] purport to highlight general antitrust bar can rely—suggest there are material
results, they need empirical support to show the differences. Compare id. at 3 (‘‘[W]hether the value
GUPPI-based presumption of methodology actually predicts concerns relatively of diverted sales is considered ‘proportionately
competitive harm is inappropriate at well. This empirical support is not available at this small’ compared to lost revenues will vary from
this stage of economic learning.23 There time.’’); Lambert, supra note 8, at 13 (the GUPPI industry to industry and firm to firm.’’) with
‘‘has not been empirically verified as a means of Shapiro, supra note 3, at 24 (‘‘Current Division
23 Joseph J. Simons & Malcolm B. Coate, Upward identifying anticompetitive mergers’’). practice is to treat the value of diverted sales as
25 Majority Statement, supra note 7, at 3.
Pressure on Price Analysis: Issues and Implications proportionately small if it is no more than 5% of
mstockstill on DSK4VPTVN1PROD with NOTICES
26 See supra text accompanying note 12. the lost revenues.’’).
for Merger Policy, 6 Eur. Competition J. 377, 389
(2010) (the upward pricing pressure screen 27 For example, the Commission regularly applies 30 A GUPPI-based safe harbor of the type
‘‘identifies as potentially problematic far more such presumptions of liability involving the endorsed by the Merger Guidelines implies a GUPPI
mergers than would be challenged or even number of firms in a market, or presumptions based above the threshold is necessary but not sufficient
investigated under the enforcement standards that upon increased market concentration as articulated for liability. A GUPPI-based presumption of harm
have existed for more than twenty years’’); Lambert, by the Merger Guidelines or the courts. See, e.g., implies a GUPPI above the threshold is sufficient
supra note 8, at 13 (‘‘In the end, the agencies’ Statement of the Federal Trade Commission, but not necessary for liability. Unfortunately, the
reliance on the difficult-to-administer, empirically Holcim Ltd., FTC File No. 141–0129 (May 8, 2015) use of GUPPIs here is more consistent with the
unverified, and inherently biased GUPPI is likely to (finding liability based upon, alternatively, changes latter than the former.
VerDate Sep<11>2014 16:30 Jul 17, 2015 Jkt 235001 PO 00000 Frm 00032 Fmt 4703 Sfmt 4703 E:\FR\FM\20JYN1.SGM 20JYN1](https://thefederalregister.org/doc/80_FR_42948/page/9.svg)
![Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 138 / Monday, July 20, 2015 / Notices 42819
For these reasons, I dissent in part Flowers/IC 9000–0054, U.S. Flag Air information is accurate, and based on
from and concur in part with the Carriers Statement. valid assumptions and methodology;
Commission’s decision. Instructions: Please submit comments ways to enhance the quality, utility, and
[FR Doc. 2015–17767 Filed 7–17–15; 8:45 am] only and cite Information Collection clarity of the information to be
BILLING CODE 6750–01–P
9000–0054, U.S. Flag Air Carriers collected; and ways in which we can
Statement, in all correspondence related minimize the burden of the collection of
to this collection. All comments information on those who are to
received will be posted without change respond, through the use of appropriate
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE to http://www.regulations.gov, including technological collection techniques or
any personal and/or business other forms of information technology.
GENERAL SERVICES confidential information provided. Obtaining Copies of Proposals:
ADMINISTRATION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Mr. Requesters may obtain a copy of the
Curtis E. Glover, Sr. Procurement information collection documents from
NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND Analyst, Contract Policy Division, GSA the General Services Administration,
SPACE ADMINISTRATION 202–501–1448 or via email at Regulatory Secretariat Division (MVCB),
[OMB Control No. 9000–0054]; [Docket curtis.glover@gsa.gov. 1800 F Street NW., Washington, DC
2015–0053; Sequence 3] SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: 20405, telephone 202–501–4755. Please
cite OMB Control No. 9000–0054,
A. Purpose Submission for OMB Review; U.S.-Flag
Submission to OMB for Review;
Federal Acquisition Regulation; U.S.- Section 5 of the International Air Air Carriers Statement, in all
Flag Air Carriers Statement Transportation Fair Competitive correspondence.
Practices Act of 1974 (49 U.S.C. 1517) Dated: July 15, 2015.
AGENCY: Department of Defense (DOD), (Fly America Act) requires that all
General Services Administration (GSA), Edward Loeb,
Federal agencies and Government
and National Aeronautics and Space Director, Office of Government-wide
contractors and subcontractors at FAR
Administration (NASA). Acquisition Policy, Office of Acquisition
47.402, use U.S.-flag air carriers for U.S. Policy, Office of Government-wide Policy.
ACTION: Notice of request for public Government-financed international air
[FR Doc. 2015–17762 Filed 7–17–15; 8:45 am]
comments regarding an extension to an transportation of personnel (and their
BILLING CODE 6820–EP–P
existing OMB clearance. personal effects) or property, to the
extent that service by those carriers is
SUMMARY: Under the provisions of the available. It requires the Comptroller
Paperwork Reduction Act, the General of the United States, in the DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND
Regulatory Secretariat will be absence of satisfactory proof of the HUMAN SERVICES
submitting to the Office of Management necessity for foreign-flag air
and Budget (OMB) a request to review transportation, to disallow expenditures Centers for Disease Control and
and approve a previously approved from funds, appropriated or otherwise Prevention
information collection requirement established for the account of the United
concerning U.S. Flag Air Carriers Multi-Agency Informational Meeting
States, for international air Concerning Compliance With the
Statement. A notice was published in transportation secured aboard a foreign-
the Federal Register at 80 FR 15789 on Federal Select Agent Program; Public
flag air carrier if a U.S.-flag air carrier is Webcast
March 25, 2015. No comments were available to provide such services. In
received. the event that the contractor selects a AGENCY: Centers for Disease Control and
DATES: Submit comments on or before carrier other than a U.S.-flag air carrier Prevention (CDC), Department of Health
August 19, 2015. for international air transportation and Human Services (HHS).
ADDRESSES: Submit comments during performance of the contract, the ACTION: Notice of public webcast.
identified by Information Collection contractor shall include per FAR clause
9000–0054, U.S. Flag Air Carriers 52.247–64 a statement on vouchers SUMMARY: The HHS Centers for Disease
Statement by any of the following involving such transportation. The Control and Prevention’s Division of
methods: contracting officer uses the information Select Agents and Toxins (DSAT) and
• Regulations.gov: http:// furnished in the statement to determine the USDA Animal and Plant Health
www.regulations.gov. Submit comments whether adequate justification exists for Inspection Service (APHIS), Agriculture
via the Federal eRulemaking portal by the contractor’s use of other than a U.S.- Select Agent Services (AgSAS) are
searching the OMB control number flag air carrier. jointly charged with the oversight of the
9000–0054. Select the link ‘‘Comment possession, use and transfer of
B. Annual Reporting Burden biological agents and toxins that have
Now’’ that corresponds with
Respondents: 150. the potential to pose a severe threat to
‘‘Information Collection ‘‘Information Responses per Respondent: 2.
Collection 9000–0054, U.S. Flag Air public, animal or plant health or to
Annual Responses: 300. animal or plant products (select agents
Carriers Statement’’. Follow the Hours per Response: .25.
instructions provided on the screen. and toxins). This joint effort constitutes
Total Burden Hours: 75. the Federal Select Agent Program. The
Please include your name, company
C. Public Comments purpose of the webcast is to provide
mstockstill on DSK4VPTVN1PROD with NOTICES
name (if any), and ‘‘Information
Collection 9000–0054, U.S. Flag Air Public comments are particularly guidance related to the Federal Select
Carriers Statement’’ on your attached invited on: Whether this collection of Agent Program for interested
document. information is necessary for the proper individuals.
• Mail: General Services performance of functions of the FAR, DATES: The webcast will be held on
Administration, Regulatory Secretariat and whether it will have practical Thursday, November 19, 2015 from 12
Division (MVCB), 1800 F Street NW., utility; whether our estimate of the p.m. to 4 p.m. EST. All who wish to join
Washington, DC 20405. ATTN: Ms. public burden of this collection of the webcast must register by October 23,
VerDate Sep<11>2014 16:30 Jul 17, 2015 Jkt 235001 PO 00000 Frm 00033 Fmt 4703 Sfmt 4703 E:\FR\FM\20JYN1.SGM 20JYN1](https://thefederalregister.org/doc/80_FR_42948/page/10.svg)
Document Created: 2015-12-15 12:57:58
Document Modified: 2015-12-15 12:57:58
| Category | Regulatory Information | |
| Collection | Federal Register | |
| sudoc Class | AE 2.7: GS 4.107: AE 2.106: | |
| Publisher | Office of the Federal Register, National Archives and Records Administration | |
| Section | Notices | |
| Action | Proposed consent agreement. | |
| Dates | Comments must be received on or before August 3, 2015. | |
| Contact | Sean Pugh, Bureau of Competition, (202-326-3201), 600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW., Washington, DC 20580. | |
| FR Citation | 80 FR 42810 |
2025 Federal Register | Disclaimer | Privacy Policy
USC | CFR | eCFR