80_FR_52993 80 FR 52824 - Order Making Fiscal Year 2016 Annual Adjustments to Registration Fee Rates

80 FR 52824 - Order Making Fiscal Year 2016 Annual Adjustments to Registration Fee Rates

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Federal Register Volume 80, Issue 169 (September 1, 2015)

Page Range52824-52832
FR Document2015-21562

Federal Register, Volume 80 Issue 169 (Tuesday, September 1, 2015)
[Federal Register Volume 80, Number 169 (Tuesday, September 1, 2015)]
[Notices]
[Pages 52824-52832]
From the Federal Register Online  [www.thefederalregister.org]
[FR Doc No: 2015-21562]


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SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

[Release Nos. 33-9898; 34-75764/August 26, 2015]


Order Making Fiscal Year 2016 Annual Adjustments to Registration 
Fee Rates

I. Background

    The Commission collects fees under various provisions of the 
securities laws. Section 6(b) of the Securities Act of 1933 
(``Securities Act'') requires the Commission to collect fees from 
issuers on the registration of securities.\1\ Section 13(e) of the 
Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (``Exchange Act'') requires the 
Commission to collect fees on specified repurchases of securities.\2\ 
Section 14(g) of the Exchange Act requires the Commission to collect 
fees on proxy solicitations and statements in corporate control 
transactions.\3\ These provisions require the Commission to make annual 
adjustments to the fee rates applicable under these provisions.
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    \1\ 15 U.S.C. 77f(b).
    \2\ 15 U.S.C. 78m(e).
    \3\ 15 U.S.C. 78n(g).
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II. Fiscal Year 2016 Annual Adjustment to Fee Rates

    Section 6(b)(2) of the Securities Act requires the Commission to 
make an annual adjustment to the fee rate applicable under Section 
6(b).\4\ The annual adjustment to the fee rate under Section 6(b) of 
the Securities Act also sets the annual adjustment to the fee rates 
under Sections 13(e) and 14(g) of the Exchange Act.\5\
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    \4\ 15 U.S.C. 77f(b)(2). The annual adjustments are designed to 
adjust the fee rate in a given fiscal year so that, when applied to 
the aggregate maximum offering price at which securities are 
proposed to be offered for the fiscal year, it is reasonably likely 
to produce total fee collections under Section 6(b) equal to the 
``target fee collection amount'' specified in Section 6(b)(6)(A) for 
that fiscal year.
    \5\ 15 U.S.C. 78m(e)(4) and 15 U.S.C. 78n(g)(4).
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    Section 6(b)(2) sets forth the method for determining the annual 
adjustment to the fee rate under Section 6(b) for fiscal year 2016. 
Specifically, the Commission must adjust the fee rate under Section 
6(b) to a ``rate that, when applied to the baseline estimate of the 
aggregate maximum offering prices for [fiscal year 2016], is reasonably 
likely to produce aggregate fee collections under [Section 6(b)] that 
are equal to the target fee collection amount for [fiscal year 2016].'' 
That is, the adjusted rate is determined by dividing the ``target fee 
collection amount'' for fiscal year 2016 by the ``baseline estimate of 
the aggregate maximum offering prices'' for fiscal year 2016.
    Section 6(b)(6)(A) specifies that the ``target fee collection 
amount'' for fiscal year 2016 is $550,000,000. Section 6(b)(6)(B) 
defines the ``baseline estimate of the aggregate maximum offering 
prices'' for fiscal year 2016 as ``the baseline estimate of the 
aggregate maximum offering price at which securities are proposed to be 
offered pursuant to registration statements filed with the Commission 
during [fiscal year 2016] as determined by the Commission, after 
consultation with the Congressional Budget Office and the Office of 
Management and Budget . . . .''
    To make the baseline estimate of the aggregate maximum offering 
price for fiscal year 2016, the Commission used a methodology similar 
to that developed in consultation with the Congressional Budget Office 
(``CBO'') and Office of Management and Budget (``OMB'') to project the 
aggregate offering price for purposes of the fiscal years 2011 through 
2015 annual adjustments.\6\ Using this methodology, the Commission 
determines the ``baseline estimate of the aggregate maximum offering 
price'' for fiscal year 2016 to be $ 5,463,538,056,703.\7\ Based on 
this estimate, the Commission calculates the fee rate for fiscal 2016 
to be $100.70 per million. This adjusted fee rate applies to Section 
6(b) of the Securities Act, as well as to Sections 13(e) and 14(g) of 
the Exchange Act.
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    \6\ For the fiscal year 2011 estimate, the Commission used a 
ten-year series of monthly observations ending in March 2011. For 
fiscal years 2012-2016, the Commission used a ten-year series ending 
in July of the applicable year.
    \7\ Appendix A explains how we determined the ``baseline 
estimate of the aggregate maximum offering price'' for fiscal year 
2016 using our methodology, and then shows the arithmetical process 
of calculating the fiscal year 2016 annual adjustment based on that 
estimate. The appendix includes the data used by the Commission in 
making its ``baseline estimate of the aggregate maximum offering 
price'' for fiscal year 2016.
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III. Effective Dates of the Annual Adjustments

    The fiscal year 2016 annual adjustments to the fee rates applicable 
under Section 6(b) of the Securities Act and Sections 13(e) and 14(g) 
of the Exchange Act will be effective on October 1, 2015.\8\
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    \8\ 15 U.S.C. 77f(b)(4), 15 U.S.C. 78m(e)(6) and 15 U.S.C. 
78n(g)(6).
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IV. Conclusion

    Accordingly, pursuant to Section 6(b) of the Securities Act and 
Sections 13(e) and 14(g) of the Exchange Act,\9\
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    \9\ 15 U.S.C. 77f(b), 78m(e) and 78n(g).
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    It is hereby ordered that the fee rates applicable under Section 
6(b) of the Securities Act and Sections 13(e) and 14(g) of the Exchange 
Act shall be $100.70 per million effective on October 1, 2015.

    By the Commission.
Brent J. Fields,
Secretary.

Appendix A

    Congress has established a target amount of monies to be 
collected from fees charged to issuers based on the value of their 
registrations. This appendix provides the formula for determining 
such fees, which the Commission adjusts annually. Congress has 
mandated that the Commission determine these fees based on the 
``aggregate maximum offering prices,'' which measures the aggregate 
dollar amount of securities registered with the Commission over the 
course of the year. In order to maximize the likelihood that the 
amount of monies targeted by Congress will be collected, the fee 
rate must be set to reflect projected aggregate maximum offering 
prices. As a percentage, the fee rate equals the ratio of the target 
amounts of monies to the projected aggregate maximum offering 
prices.
    For 2016, the Commission has estimated the aggregate maximum 
offering prices by projecting forward the trend established in the 
previous decade. More specifically, an ARIMA model was used to 
forecast the value of the aggregate maximum offering prices for 
months subsequent to July 2015, the last month for which the 
Commission has data on the aggregate maximum offering prices.
    The following sections describe this process in detail.

A. Baseline Estimate of the Aggregate Maximum Offering Prices for 
Fiscal Year 2016.

    First, calculate the aggregate maximum offering prices (AMOP) 
for each month in the sample (July 2005-July 2015). Next, calculate 
the percentage change in the AMOP from month to month.
    Model the monthly percentage change in AMOP as a first order 
moving average process. The moving average approach allows one to 
model the effect that an exceptionally high (or low) observation of 
AMOP tends to be followed by a more ``typical'' value of AMOP.
    Use the estimated moving average model to forecast the monthly 
percent change in AMOP. These percent changes can then be applied to 
obtain forecasts of the total dollar value of registrations. The 
following is a more formal (mathematical) description of the 
procedure:

[[Page 52825]]

    1. Begin with the monthly data for AMOP. The sample spans ten 
years, from July 2005 to July 2015.
    2. Divide each month's AMOP (column C) by the number of trading 
days in that month (column B) to obtain the average daily AMOP 
(AAMOP, column D).
    3. For each month t, the natural logarithm of AAMOP is reported 
in column E.
    4. Calculate the change in log(AAMOP) from the previous month as 
[Delta]t = log (AAMOPt) - 
log(AAMOPt-1). This approximates the percentage change.
    5. Estimate the first order moving average model 
[Delta]t = [alpha] + [beta]et-1 + 
et, where et denotes the forecast error for 
month t. The forecast error is simply the difference between the 
one-month ahead forecast and the actual realization of 
[Delta]t. The forecast error is expressed as 
et = [Delta]t - [alpha] - 
[beta]et-1. The model can be estimated using standard 
commercially available software. Using least squares, the estimated 
parameter values are [alpha] = 0.0000405 and [beta] = -0.85241.
    6. For the month of August 2015 forecast 
[Delta]t = 8/15 = [alpha] + [beta]et = 7/15. 
For all subsequent months, forecast [Delta]t = [alpha].
    7. Calculate forecasts of log(AAMOP). For example, the forecast 
of log(AAMOP) for October 2015 is given by 
FLAAMOPt = 10/15 = log(AAMOPt = 7/15) + 
[Delta] t = 8/15 +[Delta] t = 9/15 + [Delta] 
t = 10/15.
    8. Under the assumption that et is normally 
distributed, the n-step ahead forecast of AAMOP is given by 
exp(FLAAMOPt + [sigma]n\2\/2), where 
[sigma]n denotes the standard error of the n-step ahead 
forecast.
    9. For October 2015, this gives a forecast AAMOP of $21.425 
billion (Column I), and a forecast AMOP of $471.3 billion (Column 
J).
    10. Iterate this process through September 2016 to obtain a 
baseline estimate of the aggregate maximum offering prices for 
fiscal year 2016 of $ 5,463,538,056,703.

B. Using the Forecasts From A To Calculate the New Fee Rate

    1. Using the data from Table A, estimate the aggregate maximum 
offering prices between 10/01/15 and 9/30/16 to be 
$5,463,538,056,703.
    2. The rate necessary to collect the target $550,000,000 in fee 
revenues set by Congress is then calculated as: $550,000,000 / 
$5,463,538,056,703 = 0.00010067.
    3. Round the result to the seventh decimal point, yielding a 
rate of 0.0001007 (or $100.70 per million).
BILLING CODE 8011-01-P

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[FR Doc. 2015-21562 Filed 8-31-15; 8:45 a.m.]
BILLING CODE 8011-01-C



                                                  52824                        Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 169 / Tuesday, September 1, 2015 / Notices

                                                  be submitted on or before September 22,                   aggregate maximum offering prices for                 Exchange Act will be effective on
                                                  2015.                                                     [fiscal year 2016], is reasonably likely to           October 1, 2015.8
                                                    For the Commission, by the Division                     produce aggregate fee collections under
                                                  of Trading and Markets, pursuant to                                                                             IV. Conclusion
                                                                                                            [Section 6(b)] that are equal to the target
                                                  delegated authority.35                                    fee collection amount for [fiscal year                   Accordingly, pursuant to Section 6(b)
                                                                                                            2016].’’ That is, the adjusted rate is                of the Securities Act and Sections 13(e)
                                                  Robert W. Errett,                                                                                               and 14(g) of the Exchange Act,9
                                                                                                            determined by dividing the ‘‘target fee
                                                  Deputy Secretary.                                                                                                  It is hereby ordered that the fee rates
                                                                                                            collection amount’’ for fiscal year 2016
                                                  [FR Doc. 2015–21552 Filed 8–31–15; 8:45 am]
                                                                                                            by the ‘‘baseline estimate of the                     applicable under Section 6(b) of the
                                                  BILLING CODE 8011–01–P
                                                                                                            aggregate maximum offering prices’’ for               Securities Act and Sections 13(e) and
                                                                                                            fiscal year 2016.                                     14(g) of the Exchange Act shall be
                                                                                                                                                                  $100.70 per million effective on October
                                                  SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE                                      Section 6(b)(6)(A) specifies that the              1, 2015.
                                                  COMMISSION                                                ‘‘target fee collection amount’’ for fiscal
                                                                                                            year 2016 is $550,000,000. Section                      By the Commission.
                                                  [Release Nos. 33–9898; 34–75764/August                    6(b)(6)(B) defines the ‘‘baseline estimate            Brent J. Fields,
                                                  26, 2015]                                                                                                       Secretary.
                                                                                                            of the aggregate maximum offering
                                                  Order Making Fiscal Year 2016 Annual                      prices’’ for fiscal year 2016 as ‘‘the                Appendix A
                                                  Adjustments to Registration Fee Rates                     baseline estimate of the aggregate
                                                                                                            maximum offering price at which                          Congress has established a target amount of
                                                  I. Background                                                                                                   monies to be collected from fees charged to
                                                                                                            securities are proposed to be offered
                                                                                                                                                                  issuers based on the value of their
                                                     The Commission collects fees under                     pursuant to registration statements filed             registrations. This appendix provides the
                                                  various provisions of the securities                      with the Commission during [fiscal year               formula for determining such fees, which the
                                                  laws. Section 6(b) of the Securities Act                  2016] as determined by the                            Commission adjusts annually. Congress has
                                                  of 1933 (‘‘Securities Act’’) requires the                 Commission, after consultation with the               mandated that the Commission determine
                                                  Commission to collect fees from issuers                   Congressional Budget Office and the                   these fees based on the ‘‘aggregate maximum
                                                                                                            Office of Management and                              offering prices,’’ which measures the
                                                  on the registration of securities.1 Section                                                                     aggregate dollar amount of securities
                                                  13(e) of the Securities Exchange Act of                   Budget . . . .’’
                                                                                                                                                                  registered with the Commission over the
                                                  1934 (‘‘Exchange Act’’) requires the                         To make the baseline estimate of the               course of the year. In order to maximize the
                                                  Commission to collect fees on specified                   aggregate maximum offering price for                  likelihood that the amount of monies targeted
                                                  repurchases of securities.2 Section 14(g)                 fiscal year 2016, the Commission used                 by Congress will be collected, the fee rate
                                                  of the Exchange Act requires the                          a methodology similar to that developed               must be set to reflect projected aggregate
                                                  Commission to collect fees on proxy                       in consultation with the Congressional                maximum offering prices. As a percentage,
                                                                                                                                                                  the fee rate equals the ratio of the target
                                                  solicitations and statements in corporate                 Budget Office (‘‘CBO’’) and Office of                 amounts of monies to the projected aggregate
                                                  control transactions.3 These provisions                   Management and Budget (‘‘OMB’’) to                    maximum offering prices.
                                                  require the Commission to make annual                     project the aggregate offering price for                 For 2016, the Commission has estimated
                                                  adjustments to the fee rates applicable                   purposes of the fiscal years 2011                     the aggregate maximum offering prices by
                                                  under these provisions.                                   through 2015 annual adjustments.6                     projecting forward the trend established in
                                                                                                            Using this methodology, the                           the previous decade. More specifically, an
                                                  II. Fiscal Year 2016 Annual Adjustment                                                                          ARIMA model was used to forecast the value
                                                  to Fee Rates                                              Commission determines the ‘‘baseline
                                                                                                                                                                  of the aggregate maximum offering prices for
                                                                                                            estimate of the aggregate maximum
                                                     Section 6(b)(2) of the Securities Act                                                                        months subsequent to July 2015, the last
                                                                                                            offering price’’ for fiscal year 2016 to be           month for which the Commission has data on
                                                  requires the Commission to make an                        $ 5,463,538,056,703.7 Based on this                   the aggregate maximum offering prices.
                                                  annual adjustment to the fee rate                         estimate, the Commission calculates the                  The following sections describe this
                                                  applicable under Section 6(b).4 The                       fee rate for fiscal 2016 to be $100.70 per            process in detail.
                                                  annual adjustment to the fee rate under                   million. This adjusted fee rate applies to
                                                  Section 6(b) of the Securities Act also                                                                         A. Baseline Estimate of the Aggregate
                                                                                                            Section 6(b) of the Securities Act, as                Maximum Offering Prices for Fiscal Year
                                                  sets the annual adjustment to the fee                     well as to Sections 13(e) and 14(g) of the            2016.
                                                  rates under Sections 13(e) and 14(g) of                   Exchange Act.                                            First, calculate the aggregate maximum
                                                  the Exchange Act.5                                                                                              offering prices (AMOP) for each month in the
                                                     Section 6(b)(2) sets forth the method                  III. Effective Dates of the Annual
                                                                                                                                                                  sample (July 2005–July 2015). Next, calculate
                                                  for determining the annual adjustment                     Adjustments
                                                                                                                                                                  the percentage change in the AMOP from
                                                  to the fee rate under Section 6(b) for                      The fiscal year 2016 annual                         month to month.
                                                  fiscal year 2016. Specifically, the                       adjustments to the fee rates applicable                  Model the monthly percentage change in
                                                  Commission must adjust the fee rate                       under Section 6(b) of the Securities Act
                                                                                                                                                                  AMOP as a first order moving average
                                                  under Section 6(b) to a ‘‘rate that, when                                                                       process. The moving average approach
                                                                                                            and Sections 13(e) and 14(g) of the                   allows one to model the effect that an
                                                  applied to the baseline estimate of the
                                                                                                                                                                  exceptionally high (or low) observation of
                                                    35 17
                                                                                                               6 For the fiscal year 2011 estimate, the           AMOP tends to be followed by a more
                                                          CFR 200.30–3(a)(12).
                                                    1 15
                                                                                                            Commission used a ten-year series of monthly          ‘‘typical’’ value of AMOP.
                                                         U.S.C. 77f(b).
                                                    2 15 U.S.C. 78m(e).
                                                                                                            observations ending in March 2011. For fiscal years      Use the estimated moving average model to
                                                                                                            2012–2016, the Commission used a ten-year series      forecast the monthly percent change in
                                                    3 15 U.S.C. 78n(g).
                                                                                                            ending in July of the applicable year.
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                                                    4 15 U.S.C. 77f(b)(2). The annual adjustments are
                                                                                                                                                                  AMOP. These percent changes can then be
                                                                                                               7 Appendix A explains how we determined the
                                                                                                                                                                  applied to obtain forecasts of the total dollar
                                                  designed to adjust the fee rate in a given fiscal year    ‘‘baseline estimate of the aggregate maximum          value of registrations. The following is a
                                                  so that, when applied to the aggregate maximum            offering price’’ for fiscal year 2016 using our
                                                  offering price at which securities are proposed to                                                              more formal (mathematical) description of
                                                                                                            methodology, and then shows the arithmetical
                                                  be offered for the fiscal year, it is reasonably likely   process of calculating the fiscal year 2016 annual
                                                                                                                                                                  the procedure:
                                                  to produce total fee collections under Section 6(b)       adjustment based on that estimate. The appendix
                                                  equal to the ‘‘target fee collection amount’’ specified   includes the data used by the Commission in             8 15 U.S.C. 77f(b)(4), 15 U.S.C. 78m(e)(6) and 15

                                                  in Section 6(b)(6)(A) for that fiscal year.               making its ‘‘baseline estimate of the aggregate       U.S.C. 78n(g)(6).
                                                    5 15 U.S.C. 78m(e)(4) and 15 U.S.C. 78n(g)(4).          maximum offering price’’ for fiscal year 2016.          9 15 U.S.C. 77f(b), 78m(e) and 78n(g).




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                                                                             Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 169 / Tuesday, September 1, 2015 / Notices                                               52825

                                                     1. Begin with the monthly data for AMOP.             commercially available software. Using least            10. Iterate this process through September
                                                  The sample spans ten years, from July 2005              squares, the estimated parameter values are           2016 to obtain a baseline estimate of the
                                                  to July 2015.                                           a = 0.0000405 and b = ¥0.85241.                       aggregate maximum offering prices for fiscal
                                                     2. Divide each month’s AMOP (column C)                   6. For the month of August 2015 forecast          year 2016 of $ 5,463,538,056,703.
                                                  by the number of trading days in that month             Dt = 8/15 = a + bet = 7/15. For all subsequent
                                                  (column B) to obtain the average daily AMOP             months, forecast Dt = a.                              B. Using the Forecasts From A To Calculate
                                                  (AAMOP, column D).                                          7. Calculate forecasts of log(AAMOP). For         the New Fee Rate
                                                     3. For each month t, the natural logarithm           example, the forecast of log(AAMOP) for
                                                  of AAMOP is reported in column E.                                                                                1. Using the data from Table A, estimate
                                                                                                          October 2015 is given by FLAAMOPt = 10/15             the aggregate maximum offering prices
                                                     4. Calculate the change in log(AAMOP)
                                                                                                          = log(AAMOPt = 7/15) + D t = 8/15 +D t = 9/15 +       between 10/01/15 and 9/30/16 to be
                                                  from the previous month as Dt = log
                                                  (AAMOPt) ¥ log(AAMOPt¥1). This                          D t = 10/15.                                          $5,463,538,056,703.
                                                  approximates the percentage change.                         8. Under the assumption that et is normally          2. The rate necessary to collect the target
                                                     5. Estimate the first order moving average           distributed, the n-step ahead forecast of             $550,000,000 in fee revenues set by Congress
                                                  model Dt = a + bet¥1 + et, where et denotes             AAMOP is given by exp(FLAAMOPt + sn2/2),
                                                                                                                                                                is then calculated as: $550,000,000 ÷
                                                  the forecast error for month t. The forecast            where sn denotes the standard error of the n-
                                                                                                                                                                $5,463,538,056,703 = 0.00010067.
                                                  error is simply the difference between the              step ahead forecast.
                                                                                                              9. For October 2015, this gives a forecast           3. Round the result to the seventh decimal
                                                  one-month ahead forecast and the actual
                                                                                                          AAMOP of $21.425 billion (Column I), and              point, yielding a rate of 0.0001007 (or
                                                  realization of Dt. The forecast error is
                                                  expressed as et = Dt ¥ a ¥ bet¥1. The model             a forecast AMOP of $471.3 billion (Column             $100.70 per million).
                                                  can be estimated using standard                         J).                                                   BILLING CODE 8011–01–P
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                                                                                                                                                                                                          52826
                              Table A. Estimation of baseline of aggregate maximum offering prices .


                              Fee rate calculation.
20:18 Aug 31, 2015




                              a. Baseline estimate of the aggregate maximum offering prices, 10/1/15 to 9/30/16 ($Millions)       5,463,538
                              b. Implied fee rate ($550 Million I a)                                                                $100.70




                                                                                                                                                                                                          Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 169 / Tuesday, September 1, 2015 / Notices
                              Data
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                                               (B)             (C)                  (D)
                                                                                                                        (F)                                                            (J)
                                               #of         Aggregate          Average Daily                                            (G)        (H)             (I)
                                (A)                                                                       (E)           Log                                                    Forecast Aggregate
                                             Trading       Maximum           Aggregate Max.                                         Forecast   Standard   Forecast AAMOP,
                               Month                                                                 log(AAMOP)      (Change in                                             Maximum Offering Prices, in
                                             Days in    Offering Prices,      Offering Prices                                     log(AAMOP)     Error       in $Millions
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                                                                                                                      AAMOP)                                                        $Millions
                                              Month       in $Millions     (AAMOP) in $Millions


                              Jul-05           20                457,487                   22,874          23.853
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                              Aug-05           23                605,534                   26,328          23.994         0.141
                              Sep-05           21                312,281                   14,871          23.423        -0.571
                              Oct-05           21                258,956                   12,331          23.235        -0.187
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                              Nov-05           21                192,736                    9,178          22.940        -0.295
                              Dec-05           21                308,134                   14,673          23.409         0.469
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                              Jan-06           20                526,550                   26,328          23.994         0.585
                              Feb-06           19                301,446                   15,866          23.487        -0.506
                              Mar-06           23              1,211,344                   52,667          24.687         1.200
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                              Apr-06           19                407,345                   21,439          23.788        -0.899
                              May-06           22                260,121                   11,824          23.193        -0.595
                              Jun-06           22                375,296                   17,059          23.560         0.367
                              Jul-06           20                232,654                   11,633          23.177        -0.383
                              Aug-06           23                310,050                   13,480          23.325         0.147
                              Sep-06           20                236,782                   11,839          23.195        -0.130
01SEN1




                              Oct-06           22                213,342                    9,697          22.995        -0.200
                              Nov-06           21                292,456                   13,926          23.357         0.362
                              Dec-06           20                349,512                   17,476          23.584         0.227
                              Jan-07           20                372,740                   18,637          23.648         0.064
                              Feb-07           19                278,753                   14,671          23.409        -0.239
                              Mar-07           22                862,786                   39,218          24.392         0.983
                              Apr-07           20                562,103                   28,105          24.059        -0.333
                              May-07           22                470,843                   21,402          23.787        -0.272




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                                               (B)            (C)                  (D)
                                                                                                                 (F)                                                            (J)
                                               #of        Aggregate          Average Daily                                      (G)        (H)             (I)
                                (A)                                                                   (E)        Log                                                    Forecast Aggregate
                                             Trading      Maximum           Aggregate Max.                                   Forecast   Standard   Forecast AAMOP,
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                               Month                                                             log(AAMOP)   (Change in                                             Maximum Offering Prices, in
                                             Days in   Offering Prices,      Offering Prices                               log(AAMOP)     Error       in $Millions
                                                                                                               AAMOP)                                                        $Millions
                                              Month      in $Millions     (AAMOP) in $Millions




                                                                                                                                                                                                   Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 169 / Tuesday, September 1, 2015 / Notices
                              Jun-07           21              586,822                  27,944       24.053       0.267
                              Jul-07           21              326,612                  15,553       23.468       -0.586
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                              AuQ-07           23              369,172                  16,051       23.499       0.032
                              Sep-07           19              241,059                  12,687       23.264       -0.235
                              Oct-07           23              239,652                  10,420       23.067       -0.197
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                              Nov-07           21              458,654                  21,841       23.807       0.740
                              Dec-07           20              410,200                  20,510       23.744       -0.063
                              Jan-08           21              354,433                  16,878       23.549       -0.195
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                              Feb-08           20              263,410                  13,171       23.301       -0.248
                              Mar-08           20              596,923                  29,846       24.119       0.818
                              Apr-08           22              292,534                  13,297       23.311       -0.809
Fmt 4703




                              May-08           21              456,077                  21,718       23.801       0.491
                              Jun-08           21              461,087                  21,957       23.812       0.011
Sfmt 4725




                              Jul-08           22              232,896                  10,586       23.083       -0.730
                              AuQ-08           21              395,440                  18,830       23.659       0.576
                              Sep-08           21              177,636                   8,459       22.858       -0.800
E:\FR\FM\01SEN1.SGM




                              Oct-08           23              360,494                  15,674       23.475       0.617
                              Nov-08           19              288,911                  15,206       23.445       -0.030
                              Dec-08           22              319,584                  14,527       23.399       -0.046
                              Jan-09           20              375,065                  18,753       23.655       0.255
                              Feb-09           19              249,666                  13,140       23.299       -0.356
                              Mar-09           22              739,931                  33,633       24.239       0.940
01SEN1




                              Apr-09           21              235,914                  11,234       23.142       -1.097
                              May-09           20              329,522                  16,476       23.525       0.383
                              Jun-09           22              357,524                  16,251       23.511       -0.014
                              Jul-09           22              185,187                   8,418       22.854       -0.658
                              AuQ-09           21              192,726                   9,177       22.940       0.086
                              Sep-09           21              189,224                   9,011       22.922       -0.018
                              Oct-09           22              215,720                   9,805       23.006       0.085
                              Nov-09           20              248,353                  12,418       23.242       0.236




                                                                                                                                                                                                   52827
EN01SE15.012</GPH>


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VerDate Sep<11>2014




                                                                                                                                                                                                   52828
                                               (B)            (C)                  (D)
                                                                                                                 (F)                                                            (J)
                                               #of        Aggregate          Average Daily                                      (G)        (H)             (I)
                                (A)                                                                   (E)        Log                                                    Forecast Aggregate
                                             Trading      Maximum           Aggregate Max.                                   Forecast   Standard   Forecast AAMOP,
20:18 Aug 31, 2015




                               Month                                                             log(AAMOP)   (Change in                                             Maximum Offering Prices, in
                                             Days in   Offering Prices,      Offering Prices                               log(AAMOP)     Error       in $Millions
                                                                                                               AAMOP)                                                        $Millions
                                              Month      in $Millions     (AAMOP) in $Millions




                                                                                                                                                                                                   Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 169 / Tuesday, September 1, 2015 / Notices
                              Dec-09           22              340,464                  15,476       23.463       0.220
                              Jan-1 0          19              173,235                   9,118       22.933       -0.529
Jkt 235001




                              Feb-10           19              209,963                  11,051       23.126       0.192
                              Mar-10           23              432,934                  18,823       23.658       0.533
                              Apr-10           21              280,188                  13,342       23.314       -0.344
PO 00000




                              May-10           20              278,611                  13,931       23.357       0.043
                              Jun-10           22              364,251                  16,557       23.530       0.173
                              Jul-10           21              171,191                   8,152       22.822       -0.709
Frm 00096




                              Aug-10           22              240,793                  10,945       23.116       0.295
                              Sep-10           21              260,783                  12,418       23.242       0.126
                              Oct-10           21              214,988                  10,238       23.049       -0.193
Fmt 4703




                              Nov-10           21              340,112                  16,196       23.508       0.459
                              Dec-1 0          22              297,992                  13,545       23.329       -0.179
Sfmt 4725




                              Jan-11           20              233,668                  11,683       23.181       -0.148
                              Feb-11           19              252,785                  13,304       23.311       0.130
                              Mar-11           23              595,198                  25,878       23.977       0.665
E:\FR\FM\01SEN1.SGM




                              Apr-11           20              236,355                  11,818       23.193       -0.784
                              May-11           21              319,053                  15,193       23.444       0.251
                              Jun-11           22              359,727                  16,351       23.518       0.073
                              Jul-11           20              215,391                  10,770       23.100       -0.418
                              Aug-11           23              179,870                   7,820       22.780       -0.320
                              Sep-11           21              168,005                   8,000       22.803       0.023
01SEN1




                              Oct-11           21              181,452                   8,641       22.880       0.077
                              Nov-11           21              256,418                  12,210       23.226       0.346
                              Dec-11           21              237,652                  11,317       23.150       -0.076
                              Jan-12           20              276,965                  13,848       23.351       0.202
                              Feb-12           20              228,419                  11,421       23.159       -0.193
                              Mar-12           22              430,806                  19,582       23.698       0.539
                              Apr-12           20              173,626                   8,681       22.884       -0.813
                              May-12           22              414,122                  18,824       23.658       0.774




EN01SE15.013</GPH>


mstockstill on DSK4VPTVN1PROD with NOTICES
VerDate Sep<11>2014




                                               (B)            (C)                  (D)
                                                                                                                 (F)                                                            (J)
                                               #of        Aggregate          Average Daily                                      (G)        (H)             (I)
                                (A)                                                                   (E)        Log                                                    Forecast Aggregate
                                             Trading      Maximum           Aggregate Max.                                   Forecast   Standard   Forecast AAMOP,
20:18 Aug 31, 2015




                               Month                                                             log(AAMOP)   (Change in                                             Maximum Offering Prices, in
                                             Days in   Offering Prices,      Offering Prices                               log(AAMOP)     Error       in $Millions
                                                                                                               AAMOP)                                                        $Millions
                                              Month      in $Millions     (AAMOP) in $Millions




                                                                                                                                                                                                   Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 169 / Tuesday, September 1, 2015 / Notices
                              Jun-12           21              272,218                  12,963       23.285       -0.373
                              Jul-12           21              170,462                   8,117       22.817       -0.468
Jkt 235001




                              Aug-12           23              295,472                  12,847       23.276        0.459
                              Sep-12           19              331,295                  17,437       23.582        0.305
                              Oct-12           21              137,562                   6,551       22.603       -0.979
PO 00000




                              Nov-12           21              221,521                  10,549       23.079        0.476
                              Dec-12           20              321,602                  16,080       23.501        0.422
                              Jan-13           21              368,488                  17,547       23.588        0.087
Frm 00097




                              Feb-13           19              252,148                  13,271       23.309       -0.279
                              Mar-13           20              533,440                  26,672       24.007        0.698
                              Apr-13           22              235,779                  10,717       23.095       -0.912
Fmt 4703




                              May-13           22              382,950                  17,407       23.580        0.485
                              Jun-13           20              480,624                  24,031       23.903        0.322
Sfmt 4725




                              Jul-13           22              263,869                  11,994       23.208       -0.695
                              AuQ-13           22              253,305                  11,514       23.167       -0.041
                              Sep-13           20              267,923                  13,396       23.318        0.151
E:\FR\FM\01SEN1.SGM




                              Oct-13           23              293,847                  12,776       23.271       -0.047
                              Nov-13           20              326,257                  16,313       23.515        0.244
                              Dec-13           21              358,169                  17,056       23.560        0.045
                              Jan-14           21              369,067                  17,575       23.590        0.030
                              Feb-14           19              298,376                  15,704       23.477       -0.113
                              Mar-14           21              564,840                  26,897       24.015        0.538
01SEN1




                              Apr-14           21              263,401                  12,543       23.252       -0.763
                              May-14           21              403,700                  19,224       23.679        0.427
                              Jun-14           21              423,075                  20,146       23.726        0.047
                              Jul-14           22              373,811                  16,991       23.556       -0.170
                              Aug-14           21              405,017                  19,287       23.683        0.127
                              Sep-14           21              409,349                  19,493       23.693        0.011
                              Oct-14           23              338,832                  14,732       23.413       -0.280
                              Nov-14           19              386,898                  20,363       23.737        0.324




                                                                                                                                                                                                   52829
EN01SE15.014</GPH>


mstockstill on DSK4VPTVN1PROD with NOTICES
VerDate Sep<11>2014




                                                                                                                                                                                                     52830
20:18 Aug 31, 2015




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 169 / Tuesday, September 1, 2015 / Notices
                                               (B)            (C)                  (D)
                                                                                                                 (F)                                                              (J)
                                               #of        Aggregate          Average Daily                                      (G)         (H)             (I)
                                (A)                                                                   (E)        Log                                                      Forecast Aggregate
                                             Trading      Maximum           Aggregate Max.                                   Forecast    Standard   Forecast AAMOP,
                               Month                                                             log(AAMOP)   (Change in                                               Maximum Offering Prices, in
                                             Days in   Offering Prices,      Offering Prices                               log(AAMOP)      Error       in $Millions
Jkt 235001




                                                                                                               AAMOP)                                                          $Millions
                                              Month      in $Millions     (AAMOP) in $Millions


                              Dec-14           22              370,760                  16,853       23.548       -0.189
PO 00000




                              Jan-15           20              394,127                  19,706       23.704       0.156
                              Feb-15           19              466,138                  24,534       23.923       0.219
                              Mar-15           22              753,747                  34,261       24.257       0.334
Frm 00098




                              Apr-15           21              356,560                  16,979       23.555       -0.702
                              May-15           20              478,591                  23,930       23.898       0.343
                              Jun-15           22              446,102                  20,277       23.733       -0.166
Fmt 4703




                              Jul-15           22              402,062                  18,276       23.629       -0.104
                              Aug-15           21                                                                            23.721270      0.357            21,364                       448,636
Sfmt 4725




                              Sep-15           21                                                                            23.721310      0.361            21,394                       449,277
                              Oct-15           22                                                                            23.721350      0.365            21,425                       471,343
                              Nov-15           20                                                                            23.721390      0.368            21 ,455                      429,106
E:\FR\FM\01SEN1.SGM




                              Dec-15           22                                                                            23.721430      0.372            21 ,486                      472,691
                              Jan-16           19                                                                            23.721470      0.376            21,517                       408,816
                              Feb-16           20                                                                            23.721510      0.380            21,547                       430,948
                              Mar-16           22                                                                            23.721550      0.383            21,578                       474,720
                              Apr-16           21                                                                            23.721590      0.387            21,609                       453,789
                              May-16           21                                                                            23.721630      0.390            21,640                       454,438
01SEN1




                              Jun-16           22                                                                            23.721670      0.394            21,671                       476,758
                              Jul-16           20                                                                            23.721710      0.397            21,702                       434,035
                              Aug-16           23                                                                            23.721750      0.401            21,733                       499,854
                              Sep-16           21                                                                            23.721790      0.404            21,764                       457,040




EN01SE15.015</GPH>


                                                        Figure A
                           Aggregate Maximum Offering Prices Subject to Securities Act Section 6(b)
Doliar Value,                                (Dashed Line Indicates Forecast Values)
    $Billions




                                                                                                                                                           saonoNnN/SIOZ ‘L sequwordag ‘Aepson|,/691 ‘ON ‘08 ‘TOA /Jopst8ay jedapaq
   $1,400



   $1.200 —




   $1,000 —




                                                                                                                     October 2015
     $800 —




     $600 —

                                                                                                                                      a        &
                                                                                                                               2W    6    ;\_li‘ $
                                                                                                                                    x‘j toa            4


     $400 —




     $200 —




       $0           I         I          I          t          1          t            1     I          I        1                                 1


         Jul—05   Jul—06    Jul—07    Jul—08      Jul—09     Jul—10    Jul—11     Jul—12   Jul—13     Jul—14   Jul—15                         Jul—16




                                                                                                                                                                            I€82S


                                                  52832                      Federal Register / Vol. 80, No. 169 / Tuesday, September 1, 2015 / Notices

                                                  [FR Doc. 2015–21562 Filed 8–31–15; 8:45 a.m.]           Sincerely,                                            October 2, 2014 (Transmittal No. DDTC 14–
                                                  BILLING CODE 8011–01–C                                  Julia Frifield,                                       060)
                                                                                                          Assistant Secretary, Legislative Affairs.             Honorable John Boehner, Speaker of the
                                                                                                                                                                  House of Representatives
                                                                                                          October 3, 2014 (Transmittal No. DDTC 14–
                                                  DEPARTMENT OF STATE                                                                                           Dear Mr. Speaker:
                                                                                                          082)
                                                                                                                                                                  Pursuant to Section 36(c) of the Arms
                                                  [Public Notice: 9250]                                   Honorable John Boehner, Speaker of the                Export Control Act, I am transmitting the
                                                                                                             House of Representatives                           enclosed certification of a proposed
                                                  Bureau of Political-Military Affairs,                   Dear Mr. Speaker:                                     amendment to a technical assistance
                                                  Directorate of Defense Trade Controls:                                                                        agreement for the export of defense articles,
                                                                                                             Pursuant to Sections 36(c) and 36(d) of the
                                                  Notifications to the Congress of                                                                              including technical data, and defense
                                                                                                          Arms Export Control Act, I am transmitting
                                                  Proposed Commercial Export Licenses                                                                           services in the amount of $50,000,000 or
                                                                                                          the enclosed certification of a proposed
                                                  AGENCY:   Department of State.                          license for the manufacture of significant            more.
                                                                                                          military equipment abroad and the export of             The transaction contained in the attached
                                                  ACTION:   Notice.                                                                                             certification transfers defense articles,
                                                                                                          defense articles, including technical data,
                                                                                                                                                                including technical data, and defense
                                                  SUMMARY:   Notice is hereby given that                  and defense services in the amount of
                                                                                                          $50,000,000 or more.                                  services to provide engineering and logistical
                                                  the Department of State has forwarded                                                                         support that will extend the useful life for
                                                  the attached Notifications of Proposed                     The certification relates to the export of
                                                                                                                                                                multiple fixed wing and rotary wing aircraft
                                                  Export Licenses to the Congress on the                  defense articles including technical data,
                                                                                                                                                                to include the AU–23, F–16, F–5, RTAF–6,
                                                  dates indicated on the attachments                      technical assistance, defense articles, and
                                                                                                                                                                and C–130 aircraft for end use by the
                                                                                                          manufacturing know-how involving the co-
                                                  pursuant to sections 36(c) and 36(d),                                                                         Government of Thailand.
                                                                                                          production of 30mm x 113mm and 25mm x
                                                  and in compliance with section 36(f), of                137mm ammunition with the Government of
                                                                                                                                                                  The United States government is prepared
                                                  the Arms Export Control Act.                                                                                  to license the export of these items having
                                                                                                          the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.                          taken into account political, military,
                                                  DATES: Effective Date: As shown on each                    The United States government is prepared           economic, human rights, and arms control
                                                  of the 38 letters.                                      to license the export of these items having           considerations.
                                                  FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Ms.                    taken into account political, military,                 More detailed information is contained in
                                                  Lisa V. Aguirre, Directorate of Defense                 economic, human rights, and arms control              the formal certification which, though
                                                  Trade Controls, Department of State,                    considerations.                                       unclassified, contains business information
                                                  telephone (202) 663–2830; email                            More detailed information is contained in          submitted to the Department of State by the
                                                  DDTCResponseTeam@state.gov. ATTN:                       the formal certification which, though                applicant, publication of which could cause
                                                                                                          unclassified, contains business information           competitive harm to the United States firm
                                                  Congressional Notification of Licenses.
                                                                                                          submitted to the Department of State by the           concerned.
                                                  SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Section                      applicant, publication of which could cause
                                                  36(f) of the Arms Export Control Act (22                                                                      Sincerely,
                                                                                                          competitive harm to the United States firm
                                                  U.S.C. 2778) mandates that notifications                                                                      Julia Frifield,
                                                                                                          concerned.
                                                  to the Congress pursuant to sections                                                                          Assistant Secretary, Legislative Affairs.
                                                                                                          Sincerely,
                                                  36(c) and 36(d) must be published in the                Julia Frifield,                                       October 03, 2014 (Transmittal No. DDTC 14–
                                                  Federal Register when they are                                                                                074)
                                                                                                          Assistant Secretary, Legislative Affairs.
                                                  transmitted to Congress or as soon                                                                            Honorable John Boehner, Speaker of the
                                                  thereafter as practicable.                              October 3, 2014 (Transmittal No. DDTC 14–                House of Representatives
                                                     Following are such notifications to                  085)
                                                                                                                                                                Dear Mr. Speaker:
                                                  the Congress:                                           Honorable John Boehner, Speaker of the                   Pursuant to Section 36(c) of the Arms
                                                  October 29, 2014 (Transmittal No. DDTC 14–                House of Representatives                            Export Control Act, I am transmitting the
                                                  118)                                                    Dear Mr. Speaker:                                     enclosed certification of a proposed license
                                                  Honorable John A. Boehner, Speaker of the                 Pursuant to Section 36(c) of the Arms               for the export of defense articles, including
                                                    House of Representatives                              Export Control Act, I am transmitting                 technical data, and defense services in the
                                                                                                          certification of a proposed license for the           amount of $100,000,000 or more.
                                                  Dear Mr. Speaker:
                                                                                                          export of firearm parts and components                   The attached certification involves the
                                                    Pursuant to Section 36(c) of the Arms                                                                       export of defense articles, including technical
                                                  Export Control Act, I am transmitting, the              controlled under Category I of the United
                                                                                                          States Munitions List in the amount of                data, and defense services to Canada, France,
                                                  certification of a proposed license for the                                                                   Israel, the Republic of Korea and the United
                                                  export of defense articles, to include                  $1,000,000 or more.
                                                                                                            The attached certification involves the             Kingdom to support the integration,
                                                  technical data, and defense services in the                                                                   installation, operation, training, testing,
                                                  amount of $100,000,000 or more.                         export of Sig Sauer P229 pistols and 15
                                                                                                                                                                maintenance, repair and modernization of
                                                    The transaction contained in the attached             round magazines to the Ministry of Interior
                                                                                                                                                                the P–3C avionics and mission systems for
                                                  certification involves the transfer of defense          (MOI) in Abu Dhabi, UAE.
                                                                                                                                                                the Republic of Korea.
                                                  articles to support the Direct Commercial                 The United States government is prepared
                                                                                                                                                                   The United States government is prepared
                                                  Contract (DCC) of the Joint Direct Attack               to license the export of these items having           to license the export of these items having
                                                  Munition (JDAM) and Small Diameter Bomb                 taken into account political, military,               taken into account political, military,
                                                  (SDB) for the Israel Ministry of Defense.               economic, human rights, and arms control              economic, human rights, and arms control
                                                    The United States government is prepared              considerations.                                       considerations.
                                                  to license the export of these items having               More detailed information is contained in              More detailed information is contained in
                                                  taken into account political, military,                 the formal certification which, though                the formal certification which, though
                                                  economic, human rights, and arms control
mstockstill on DSK4VPTVN1PROD with NOTICES




                                                                                                          unclassified, contains business information           unclassified, contains business information
                                                  considerations.                                         submitted to the Department of State by the           submitted to the Department of State by the
                                                    More detailed information is contained in             applicant, publication of which could cause           applicant, publication of which could cause
                                                  the formal certification which, though                  competitive harm to the United States firm            competitive harm to the United States firm
                                                  unclassified, contains business information             concerned.                                            concerned.
                                                  submitted to the Department of State by the
                                                                                                          Sincerely,                                            Sincerely,
                                                  applicant, publication of which could cause
                                                  competitive harm to the United States firm              Julia Frifield,                                       Julia Frifield,
                                                  concerned.                                              Assistant Secretary, Legislative Affairs.             Assistant Secretary, Legislative Affairs.



                                             VerDate Sep<11>2014   20:18 Aug 31, 2015   Jkt 235001   PO 00000   Frm 00100   Fmt 4703   Sfmt 4703   E:\FR\FM\01SEN1.SGM   01SEN1



Document Created: 2018-02-26 10:04:29
Document Modified: 2018-02-26 10:04:29
CategoryRegulatory Information
CollectionFederal Register
sudoc ClassAE 2.7:
GS 4.107:
AE 2.106:
PublisherOffice of the Federal Register, National Archives and Records Administration
SectionNotices
FR Citation80 FR 52824 

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