81 FR 43671 - Public Comment on an Annotated Outline for the Fourth National Climate Assessment

OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY

Federal Register Volume 81, Issue 128 (July 5, 2016)

With this notice, The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) seeks public comment on the proposed content and scope of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) as indicated by the draft outline presented here. A Request for Information in 2015 sought public input on the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process more generally (80 FR 26105, https://federalregister.gov/a/2015-10352). The outline for NCA4 is informed by that previously received public input. General topics on which public comment is requested, in addition to the proposed outline, include: (1) Ways to make the assessment information accessible and useful to multiple audiences; (2) the specific types of detailed information at regional scales that would be most useful; (3) suggestions for how to best describe risks and impacts, as well as potential opportunities to reduce those risks and impacts on sectors of the economy as well as natural and social systems; (4) suggestions for new approaches to topics addressed in previous assessments; and (5) suggestions regarding overarching themes that NCA4 should consider addressing. A call for author nominations and technical inputs may soon be posted in one or more subsequent Federal Register Notices. A draft of NCA4 will also be released for public comment prior to its final release. Background information, additional details, and instructions for submitting comments can be found at www.globalchange.gov/ notices. For more information about the NCA and access to previous NCA reports and activities, please see http://assessment.globalchange.gov. Responses to the questions below can be entered via the Web site noted above.

[Federal Register Volume 81, Number 128 (Tuesday, July 5, 2016)]
[Notices]
[Pages 43671-43673]
From the Federal Register Online  [www.thefederalregister.org]
[FR Doc No: 2016-15807]


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OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY


Public Comment on an Annotated Outline for the Fourth National 
Climate Assessment

ACTION: Notice of request for public comment.

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SUMMARY: With this notice, The U.S. Global Change Research Program 
(USGCRP) seeks public comment on the proposed content and scope of the 
Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) as indicated by the draft 
outline presented here. A Request for Information in 2015 sought public 
input on the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process more 
generally (80 FR 26105, https://federalregister.gov/a/2015-10352). The 
outline for NCA4 is informed by that previously received public input.
    General topics on which public comment is requested, in addition to 
the proposed outline, include: (1) Ways to make the assessment 
information accessible and useful to multiple audiences; (2) the 
specific types of detailed information at regional scales that would be 
most useful; (3) suggestions for how to best describe risks and 
impacts, as well as potential opportunities to reduce those risks and 
impacts on sectors of the economy as well as natural and social 
systems; (4) suggestions for new approaches to topics addressed in 
previous assessments; and (5) suggestions regarding overarching themes 
that NCA4 should consider addressing.
    A call for author nominations and technical inputs may soon be 
posted in one or more subsequent Federal Register Notices. A draft of 
NCA4 will also be released for public comment prior to its final 
release. Background information, additional details, and instructions 
for submitting comments can be found at www.globalchange.gov/

[[Page 43672]]

notices. For more information about the NCA and access to previous NCA 
reports and activities, please see http://assessment.globalchange.gov. 
Responses to the questions below can be entered via the Web site noted 
above.

DATES: Comments will be accepted through July 29, 2016.

ADDRESSES: Comments from the public will be accepted electronically via 
http://www.globalchange.gov/notices. Instructions for submitting 
comments are on the Web site. Submitters may enter text or upload files 
in response to this notice.
    Instructions: Response to this Request for Comment is voluntary. 
Respondents need not reply to all questions or topics; however, they 
should clearly indicate the question or topic to which they are 
responding. Responses may be used by the U.S. Government for program 
planning on a non-attribution basis. OSTP therefore requests that no 
business proprietary information or copyrighted information be 
submitted in response to this Request for Comment. Please note that the 
U.S. Government will not pay for response preparation, or for the use 
of any information contained in the response.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Emily Therese Cloyd, (202) 223-6262, 
[email protected], U.S. Global Change Research Program.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: USGCRP is mandated under the Global Change 
Research Act (GCRA) of 1990 to conduct a quadrennial NCA. Under its 
current decadal strategic plan (http://go.usa.gov/3qGU4), USGCRP is 
building sustained assessment capacity to support the Nation's ability 
to understand, anticipate, and respond to risks and potential impacts 
brought about by global environmental change, namely the human-caused 
buildup of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere that is causing climate 
change. The last NCA from 2014 (NCA3: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov) 
and the process to develop it provide a foundation for subsequent 
activities and reports.
    Recent special assessments by the U.S. Government will be utilized 
for NCA4, including: The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in 
the United States (https://health2016.globalchange.gov/); Climate 
Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System (http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/FoodSecurity.htm); and Effects of 
Drought on Forests and Rangelands in the United States (http://www.fs.fed.us/science-technology/climate-change/drought-forests-and-rangelands). Other USGCRP special reports under development include the 
Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2, https://www.carboncyclescience.us/news/federal-register-notice-2nd-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr-2) and the Climate Science Special Report 
(CSSR, https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2016/03/31/2016-07208/united-states-global-change-research-program).
    There will be a number of overarching themes and perspectives in 
NCA4 that are, in part, responsive to needs and gaps identified in 
NCA3. The following are likely to be such themes throughout NCA4:
    [cir] NCA4 will attempt to highlight advancements or improvements, 
since NCA3, in understanding of the science of human-induced climate 
change and the resulting implications for the United States.
    [cir] For risks and potential impacts, NCA4 will identify 
populations of concern, which was a theme highlighted in The Impacts of 
Climate Change on Human Health in the United States (2016).
    [cir] Major research needs, key uncertainties, and information gaps 
will be identified.
    [cir] Current and future risks associated with climate change will 
be characterized with quantifiable metrics wherever possible, and with 
the needs of multiple audiences in mind.
    [cir] Consistent treatment of different timeframes of interest will 
be sought throughout NCA4, with emphasis on the near-term (i.e., over 
the next few decades) trends and projections to inform adaptation 
needs, the long-term (i.e., latter half of this century) projections 
that are more scenario dependent, and in some cases timeframes well 
past 2100 to indicate legacy effects of the human influence on the 
climate and oceans.

Comments are sought on these proposed overarching themes. Additional 
suggestions will be reviewed as they relate to the proposed structure 
of the report.
    What follows is a proposed high-level and draft annotated outline 
intended to guide the scope and content for NCA4. Public comments are 
sought on all aspects of this draft outline. The proposed outline is 
presented here in five parts: (1) Introduction and context for NCA4; 
(2) the foundational physical science; (3) human health and welfare, 
societal and environmental areas that are vulnerable to a changing 
climate; (4) regional analyses within the United States; and (5) 
identifying the information needed to support climate change 
adaptation, increased resiliency, and risk reduction.

1. Introduction and Context for NCA4

    The introductory and context-setting sections of the NCA4 will 
describe:
    [cir] Context for the NCA4 as noted above, including the NCA's 
relation to complementary domestic and international assessment 
efforts.
    [cir] Advancements in science since NCA3 (2014), as well as any new 
approaches or differences in scope relative to NCA3. This information 
will include the special assessments completed or in-progress post-
NCA3, in particular those under the auspices of USGCRP (some examples 
of these special assessments are provided throughout this notice).
    [cir] Changing global and national conditions that influence (1) 
drivers of climate change, namely the activities that lead to emissions 
and thus the atmospheric buildup of greenhouse gas concentrations; and 
(2) resiliency and vulnerabilities, such as demographic change and 
economic development.
    [cir] The geographic scope (see section 5) and the temporal scope 
(e.g., recent historic to next 25 to 100 years) of NCA4. The lexicon 
used for the confidence and uncertainty levels associated with key 
statements and findings (and accompanying traceable accounts) may be 
similar to that used in the recent climate change and human health 
assessment (https://health2016.globalchange.gov/documenting-uncertainty).

2. The Foundational Physical Science (Based on the Climate Science 
Special Report)

    The USGCRP is in the process of developing the Climate Science 
Special Report (CSSR). The CSSR will highlight advances in the physical 
science of climate change since NCA3 (2014), and will provide the 
primary scientific underpinnings and framing for the entire NCA4. The 
Federal Register Notice for the CSSR can be found at https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2016/03/31/2016-07208/united-states-global-change-research-program. To briefly summarize here, it will 
generally cover:
    [cir] Observations of changes in: Atmospheric composition, 
radiative forcing, temperature, precipitation, large-scale climate 
modes (e.g., El Nino events), drought, floods and associated hydrologic 
events (streamflow, snowpack), sea level rise, ice sheet dynamics, 
biogeochemistry of land and marine systems, climate variability, ocean 
acidification, extreme storms such as hurricanes, atmospheric rivers, 
polar changes including permafrost and land-ice dynamics, and 
attribution of

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physical and biophysical processes to human activities.
    [cir] Future projections of changes in the aforementioned climate 
system processes will be based on modeling results of the Coupled 
Modeled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) driven by the emissions 
scenarios and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in 
the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (e.g., http://sedac.ipcc-data.org/ddc/ar5_scenario_process/RCPs.html). Future projections will include 
perspectives on mitigation pathways.

3. Human Health and Welfare, Societal and Environmental Vulnerabilities 
to a Changing Climate

    This section of NCA4 will provide national-level overviews of 
observed and projected future trends and potential effects in key areas 
of concern for people and the environment, including human health, 
social well being, and natural systems. These same areas will be 
addressed to varying degrees in each of the regional sections of the 
outline described under Part 4.
    Within each of these areas, non-climatic trends (e.g., population 
changes) will be briefly discussed in order to set a broader context 
within which climate change effects can be understood. Observed and 
projected risks, impacts and potential benefits as a result of climate 
change will be identified in each of these areas, with quantifiable 
metrics wherever possible. The role of extreme events in each area will 
be addressed where possible. In addition, potential adaptive measures 
to minimize risks will be described for each area, to the extent these 
are identified in the published literature.
    The GCRA of 1990 requires that the NCA analyze ``the effects of 
global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy 
production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human 
health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity.''
    In addition to these mandated topics, the following additional 
specific areas are proposed for inclusion in NCA4: Effects on tribal 
and indigenous communities; coastal effects; ocean acidification and 
marine resources; and key international effects, particularly those 
that may raise environmental, humanitarian, trade, or security issues 
for the United States. Cross-sectoral issues where interactions can 
result in significant effects are also being proposed in this section 
of NCA4; these potentially include (but are not limited to): The water-
energy-land nexus; the interactions among biodiversity, land use, and 
climate; and linkages between air quality and climate.

4. Regional Analyses Within the United States

    Under this proposed outline, the regional detail for each of the 
areas described in Part 3 above will be placed in this section of the 
report. In other words, Part 3 will provide more generalized 
information at a national level, whereas Part 4 will go into greater 
depth to provide information at sub-national and regional levels.
    NCA3 included the following regions of the United States (see 
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report#section-1948): Northeast, 
Southeast and the Caribbean, Midwest, Great Plains, Southwest, 
Northwest, Alaska, Hawaii and Pacific Islands, Oceans and Coasts. The 
proposed regional breakout for NCA4 is the same with the exception of 
the Great Plains; because that was such a large region, stretching from 
the Gulf Coast to the Canadian border, it will be divided into two 
regions: Northern and Southern Plains.
    In addition to the themes for each area described in Part 3, the 
regional sections in Part 4 will also include State-level information 
as appropriate and where available, as well as urban and rural case 
studies where possible to showcase, with local specificity, climate 
trends, potential risks, and resiliency planning.

5. Identifying the Information Needed To Support Climate Change 
Adaptation, Increased Resiliency, and Risk Reduction

    This part of NCA4 will focus on identifying near-term needs and 
opportunities for adaptive measures and resiliency planning in the face 
of observed and projected changes in climate, as well as the dependency 
of risk and potential impacts on greenhouse gas emissions scenarios 
over the longer term. NCA4 is not a policy document, and as such will 
not be evaluating policy measures, actions, instruments or mechanisms 
to deliver or incentivize either adaptation or mitigation responses at 
any level of government. Rather, the intention of this part of NCA4 is 
to inform the Nation, and different regions within the Nation, about 
near-term adaptation needs over the next few decades that are likely to 
persist regardless of emissions pathway, and, over the longer term, the 
reduced and/or avoided levels of risks and impacts in the United 
States, as a result of different levels of global greenhouse gas 
mitigation.
    Adaptation needs and opportunities will be drawn from relevant 
information from Parts 2, 3 and 4 as outlined above.
    In addition to physical metrics of changing risks and potential 
impacts over time under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, 
analysis of costs of adaptation options and potential impacts (or 
avoided impacts) will be included where possible, in part with input 
from recent EPA efforts, such as the report on Climate Change in the 
United States: Benefits of Global Action (https://www.epa.gov/cira).
    Case studies and links to decision-support tools (e.g., the Climate 
Resilience Toolkit, http://toolkit.climate.gov) will also be included 
here.
    Public comments are sought on all of the draft outline sections 
described above for NCA4.

Stacy L. Murphy,
Operations Manager/Acting Security Officer.
[FR Doc. 2016-15807 Filed 7-1-16; 8:45 am]
 BILLING CODE 3270-F6-P