82 FR 26710 - Section 8 Housing Assistance Payments Program-Fiscal Year (FY) 2017 Inflation Factors for Public Housing Agency (PHA) Renewal Funding
DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT Federal Register Volume 82, Issue 109 (June 8, 2017)
Federal Register Volume 82, Issue 109 (June 8, 2017)
| Page Range | 26710-26711 | |
| FR Document | 2017-11936 |
[Federal Register Volume 82, Number 109 (Thursday, June 8, 2017)] [Notices] [Pages 26710-26711] From the Federal Register Online [www.thefederalregister.org] [FR Doc No: 2017-11936] ----------------------------------------------------------------------- DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT [Docket No. FR-6037-N-01] Section 8 Housing Assistance Payments Program-Fiscal Year (FY) 2017 Inflation Factors for Public Housing Agency (PHA) Renewal Funding AGENCY: Office of the Assistant Secretary for Policy Development and Research, HUD. ACTION: Notice. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- SUMMARY: This notice establishes Renewal Funding Inflation Factors (RFIF) to adjust Fiscal Year (FY) 2017 renewal funding for the Tenant- based Rental Assistance (TBRA), or Housing Choice Voucher (HCV), Program of each public housing agency (PHA), as required by the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2017. The notice apportions the expected percent change in national Per Unit Cost (PUC) for the HCV program, 3.97%, to each PHA based on the change in Fair Market Rents (FMR) for their operating area to produce the FY 2017 RFIFs. HUD's FY 2017 methodology differs in part from that used in FY 2016; HUD improved the national PUC forecast by removing the reliance on historical PUC data and independently projecting growth in gross rents and tenant incomes. DATES: Effective Date: June 19, 2017. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Miguel A. Fontanez, Director, Housing Voucher Financial Division, Office of Public Housing and Voucher Programs, Office of Public and Indian Housing, telephone number 202- 402-4212; or Peter B. Kahn, Director, Economic and Market Analysis Division, Office of Policy Development and Research, telephone number 202-402-2409, for technical information regarding the development of the schedules for specific areas or the methods used for calculating the inflation factors, Department of Housing and Urban Development, 451 7th Street SW., Washington, DC 20410. Hearing- or speech-impaired persons may contact the Federal Relay Service at 800-877-8339 (TTY). (Other than the ``800'' TTY number, the above-listed telephone numbers are not toll free.) SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: I. Background Division K, Title II of the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2017 requires that the HUD Secretary, for the calendar year 2017 funding cycle, provide renewal funding for each public housing agency (PHA) based on validated voucher management system (VMS) leasing and cost data for the prior calendar year and by applying an inflation factor as established by the Secretary, by notice published in the Federal Register. This notice provides the FY 2017 inflation factors and describes the methodology for calculating them. Tables in PDF and Microsoft Excel formats showing Renewal Funding Inflation Factors (RFIF) will be available electronically from the HUD data information page at: https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/rfif/rfif.html. II. Methodology RFIFs are used to adjust the allocation of Housing Choice Voucher (HCV) program funds to PHAs for local changes in rents, utility costs, and tenant incomes. To calculate the RFIFs, HUD first forecasts a national inflation factor, which is the annual change in the national average Per Unit Cost (PUC). HUD then calculates individual area inflation factors, which are based on the annual changes in the two- bedroom Fair Market Rent (FMR) for each area. Finally, HUD adjusts the individual area inflation factors to be consistent with the national inflation factor. HUD has refined its methods for predicting inflation factors over time. In FY 2012, HUD changed from using a Consumer Price Index (CPI) historical gross rent index-based factor known as Annual Adjustment Factors to using a forecasting model that was based on historical levels of PUC and incorporated forecasted economic indices as explanatory variables to predict future levels of PUC. HUD continued to use the forecasting model adopted in FY 2012 through FY 2016 to calculate a national PUC inflation factor. Consistent with HUD's statement in the FY 2016 Renewal Funding Inflation Factor Notice that it planned to change its inflation factor methodology in FY 2017, HUD has now implemented a revised methodology to calculate a national PUC inflation factor that does not rely on historical values of PUC. See 81 FR 22296. The objective of the revised methodology is to determine the amount by which baseline funding for HCVs currently under lease needs to increase to maintain the same number and quality of leased vouchers. The prior methodology had the disadvantage of incorporating the lower per-unit costs calculated during economic downturns into future projections, which resulted in a failure to account for higher per-unit costs during economic recoveries. The revised methodology instead calculates a ``notional'' PUC by taking the difference between national gross rent and 30 percent of national average HCV tenant income, as described below. The inflation factor is then calculated as the annual change in notional PUC. The notional PUC is calculated following the same basic formula that is used to calculate the voucher subsidy. The monthly subsidy is the difference between total monthly gross rent (which is the total of the unit's contract rent plus utilities expenses required to make the unit habitable--principally electricity and/or heating fuel) and the monthly tenant rent contribution (which is calculated as 30% of monthly tenant income). However, the change in the notional PUC is calculated using forecasts incorporating economic indicators, in part using the same methodology used to calculate the national FMR trend factor, so that it reflects forward-looking cost projections rather than backward- looking data. The base level of the notional PUC is the two-bedroom national average FMR less 30 percent of the national average tenant [[Page 26711]] income measured using HUD administrative data. Future values of the notional PUC are calculated as the difference between the forecast of monthly gross rent (using a national average) and the forecast of the monthly tenant rent contribution (calculated as 30% of the national average forecast of monthly tenant adjusted gross income). An accurate PUC forecast depends upon the interaction of the three factors mentioned above that determine the voucher subsidy amounts: Rents and utility expenses--together, gross rents--and tenant incomes. Note that if tenant incomes grow more strongly than gross rents, voucher costs will grow more slowly than gross rents. This typically does not occur, as tenant incomes have historically grown more slowly than gross rents. However, modeling the growth in gross rents and tenant incomes independently is an improvement of the prior methodology, which forecasted PUC changes directly, essentially assuming that gross rents and tenant incomes grow at the same rates. In contrast, the new model expressly captures differences in expected growth rates of the three relevant factors: Rent of primary residence, utilities associated with renting a housing unit, and tenant incomes. HUD calculates a gross rent index forecast by combining two indices that HUD independently forecasts using data from the CPI-U: A rent of primary residence index and a housing--fuels and utilities index. The Rent of Primary Residence Index (BLS CPI-U component series ``SEHA'') is weighted at 80 percent, or 0.8 times, and is estimated from quarterly data on residential fixed investment from the National Income and Product Accounts, and civilian employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Housing--Fuels and Utilities Index (BLS CPI-U component series ``SAH2''), a forecast of quarterly utility expense growth, is weighted at 20 percent, or 0.2 times, and is estimated using the quarterly average spot price in dollars per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the quarterly national average price in dollars per short ton of bituminous coal, the quarterly average Henry Hub price of natural gas in dollars per million BTUs, and the overall level of the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) lagged by 2 quarters. The changes predicted by the gross rent index forecast are then applied to a ``base'' gross rent--for this year, the FY 2016 national voucher- weighted average two-bedroom FMR--to ``inflate'' the FY 2016 national average gross rent to its projected FY 2017 amount. HUD forecasts quarterly average tenant household incomes (sourced from HUD administrative data) using a model that includes a seasonal difference and seasonal moving average factor. The other independent variables are BLS's civilian employment and unemployment rate data. As stated above, the notional PUC is the difference between the national average monthly gross rent forecast less 30% of the national average monthly voucher tenant household income forecast. The national inflation factor is the annual change in the national average PUC predicted for the current calendar year (in this case 2017) divided by the national average PUC for the prior year (in this case 2016). The Calendar Year 2017 PHA HCV allocation uses 3.97 percent as the national inflation factor. Forecast components for each economic series used in the model in FY 2017 were taken from the FY 2017 OMB Midsession Review Economic Assumptions. III. The Use of Inflation Factors HUD then calculates individual geographic area inflation factors for each PHA administering the HCV program to account for relative differences in the changes of local rents so that HCV funds can be allocated among PHAs according to local costs. HUD does so by assigning each PHA an inflation factor calculated for its FMR area(s) and then adjusting these individual inflation factors to be consistent with the national forecast. The inflation factor for an individual geographic area is based on the annualized change in the area's FMR between FY 2016 and FY 2017.\1\ These changes in FMRs are then scaled such that the voucher-weighted average of all individual area inflation factors is equal to the national inflation factor, i.e., the expected annual change in national PUC from CY 2016 to CY 2017 (now calculated using the revised ``notional PUC'' methodology described above), and also such that no area has a factor less than one. For PHAs operating in multiple FMR areas, HUD calculates a voucher-weighted average inflation factor based on the count of vouchers in each FMR area administered by the PHA as captured in HUD administrative data as of September 30, 2016. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- \1\ The FY 2017 inflation factors use the one-year change in FMRs measured between FY 2016 and FY 2017. As noted in the FY 2016 ``Section 8 Housing Assistance Payments Program-Fiscal Year (FY) 2016 Inflation Factors for Public Housing Agency (PHA) Renewal Funding'' notice, HUD used the annualized two-year change in FMRs measured between FY 2014 and FY 2016 because the FY15 predicted inflation rate was negative. The notice also stated that HUD intended future inflation factors to be based on the one-year change in FMRs. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- HUD subsequently applies the calculated individual area inflation factors to eligible renewal funding for each PHA based on VMS leasing and cost data for the prior calendar year. IV. Geographic Areas and Area Definitions As explained above, inflation factors based on area FMR changes are produced for all FMR areas and applied to eligible renewal funding for each PHA. The tables showing the RFIFs, available electronically from the HUD data information page, list the inflation factors for each FMR area on a state-by-state basis. The inflation factors use the same OMB metropolitan area definitions, as revised by HUD, that are used in the FY 2017 FMRs. PHAs should refer to the Area Definitions Table on the following Web page to make certain that they are referencing the correct inflation factors: http://www.huduser.org/portal/datasets/rfif/FY2017/FY2017_RFIF_FMR_AREA_REPORT.pdf. The Area Definitions Table lists areas in alphabetical order by state, and the counties associated with each area. In the six New England states, the listings are for counties or parts of counties as defined by towns or cities. HUD is also releasing the data in Microsoft Excel format to assist users who may wish to use these data in other calculations. The Excel file is available at https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/rfif/rfif.html. V. Environmental Impact This notice involves a statutorily required establishment of a rate or cost determination which does not constitute a development decision affecting the physical condition of specific project areas or building sites. Accordingly, under 24 CFR 50.19(c)(6), this notice is categorically excluded from environmental review under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (42 U.S.C. 4321). Dated: June 2, 2017. Matthew Ammon, General Deputy Assistant Secretary for Policy Development and Research. [FR Doc. 2017-11936 Filed 6-7-17; 8:45 am] BILLING CODE 4210-67-P
![26710 Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 109 / Thursday, June 8, 2017 / Notices
(b) is any principal of any entity or Rents (FMR) for their operating area to bedroom Fair Market Rent (FMR) for
individual described in the preceding produce the FY 2017 RFIFs. HUD’s FY each area. Finally, HUD adjusts the
sentence; 2017 methodology differs in part from individual area inflation factors to be
(c) any employee or subcontractor of that used in FY 2016; HUD improved consistent with the national inflation
such entity or individual during that the national PUC forecast by removing factor.
six-month period; or the reliance on historical PUC data and HUD has refined its methods for
(d) any entity or individual that independently projecting growth in predicting inflation factors over time. In
employs or uses the services of any gross rents and tenant incomes. FY 2012, HUD changed from using a
other entity or individual described in DATES: Effective Date: June 19, 2017. Consumer Price Index (CPI) historical
this paragraph in preparing its bid on gross rent index-based factor known as
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
such reverse mortgage loan. Annual Adjustment Factors to using a
Miguel A. Fontanez, Director, Housing
Freedom of Information Act Requests forecasting model that was based on
Voucher Financial Division, Office of
historical levels of PUC and
HUD reserves the right, in its sole and Public Housing and Voucher Programs,
incorporated forecasted economic
absolute discretion, to disclose Office of Public and Indian Housing,
indices as explanatory variables to
information regarding HVLS 2017–2, telephone number 202–402–4212; or
predict future levels of PUC. HUD
including, but not limited to, the Peter B. Kahn, Director, Economic and continued to use the forecasting model
identity of any successful qualified Market Analysis Division, Office of adopted in FY 2012 through FY 2016 to
bidder and its bid price or bid Policy Development and Research, calculate a national PUC inflation factor.
percentage for any pool of loans or telephone number 202–402–2409, for Consistent with HUD’s statement in the
individual loan, upon the closing of the technical information regarding the FY 2016 Renewal Funding Inflation
sale of all the Mortgage Loans. Even if development of the schedules for Factor Notice that it planned to change
HUD elects not to publicly disclose any specific areas or the methods used for its inflation factor methodology in FY
information relating to SFLS 2017–2, calculating the inflation factors, 2017, HUD has now implemented a
HUD will disclose any information that Department of Housing and Urban revised methodology to calculate a
HUD is obligated to disclose pursuant to Development, 451 7th Street SW., national PUC inflation factor that does
the Freedom of Information Act and all Washington, DC 20410. Hearing- or not rely on historical values of PUC. See
regulations promulgated thereunder. speech-impaired persons may contact 81 FR 22296.
the Federal Relay Service at 800–877– The objective of the revised
Scope of Notice 8339 (TTY). (Other than the ‘‘800’’ TTY methodology is to determine the amount
This notice applies to HVLS 2017–2 number, the above-listed telephone by which baseline funding for HCVs
and does not establish HUD’s policy for numbers are not toll free.) currently under lease needs to increase
the sale of other mortgage loans. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: to maintain the same number and
Dated: June 2, 2017. quality of leased vouchers. The prior
I. Background
Genger Charles, methodology had the disadvantage of
Division K, Title II of the incorporating the lower per-unit costs
General Deputy Assistant Secretary for
Housing. Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2017 calculated during economic downturns
requires that the HUD Secretary, for the into future projections, which resulted
[FR Doc. 2017–11944 Filed 6–7–17; 8:45 am]
calendar year 2017 funding cycle, in a failure to account for higher per-
BILLING CODE 4210–67–P
provide renewal funding for each public unit costs during economic recoveries.
housing agency (PHA) based on The revised methodology instead
DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND validated voucher management system calculates a ‘‘notional’’ PUC by taking
URBAN DEVELOPMENT (VMS) leasing and cost data for the prior the difference between national gross
calendar year and by applying an rent and 30 percent of national average
[Docket No. FR–6037–N–01] inflation factor as established by the HCV tenant income, as described below.
Secretary, by notice published in the The inflation factor is then calculated as
Section 8 Housing Assistance Federal Register. This notice provides the annual change in notional PUC.
Payments Program-Fiscal Year (FY) the FY 2017 inflation factors and The notional PUC is calculated
2017 Inflation Factors for Public describes the methodology for following the same basic formula that is
Housing Agency (PHA) Renewal calculating them. Tables in PDF and used to calculate the voucher subsidy.
Funding Microsoft Excel formats showing The monthly subsidy is the difference
AGENCY: Office of the Assistant Renewal Funding Inflation Factors between total monthly gross rent (which
Secretary for Policy Development and (RFIF) will be available electronically is the total of the unit’s contract rent
Research, HUD. from the HUD data information page at: plus utilities expenses required to make
ACTION: Notice. https://www.huduser.gov/portal/ the unit habitable—principally
datasets/rfif/rfif.html. electricity and/or heating fuel) and the
SUMMARY: This notice establishes monthly tenant rent contribution (which
Renewal Funding Inflation Factors II. Methodology is calculated as 30% of monthly tenant
(RFIF) to adjust Fiscal Year (FY) 2017 RFIFs are used to adjust the allocation income). However, the change in the
renewal funding for the Tenant-based of Housing Choice Voucher (HCV) notional PUC is calculated using
asabaliauskas on DSKBBXCHB2PROD with NOTICES
Rental Assistance (TBRA), or Housing program funds to PHAs for local forecasts incorporating economic
Choice Voucher (HCV), Program of each changes in rents, utility costs, and indicators, in part using the same
public housing agency (PHA), as tenant incomes. To calculate the RFIFs, methodology used to calculate the
required by the Consolidated HUD first forecasts a national inflation national FMR trend factor, so that it
Appropriations Act, 2017. The notice factor, which is the annual change in reflects forward-looking cost projections
apportions the expected percent change the national average Per Unit Cost rather than backward-looking data. The
in national Per Unit Cost (PUC) for the (PUC). HUD then calculates individual base level of the notional PUC is the
HCV program, 3.97%, to each PHA area inflation factors, which are based two-bedroom national average FMR less
based on the change in Fair Market on the annual changes in the two- 30 percent of the national average tenant
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![Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 109 / Thursday, June 8, 2017 / Notices 26711
income measured using HUD HUD forecasts quarterly average as captured in HUD administrative data
administrative data. Future values of the tenant household incomes (sourced as of September 30, 2016.
notional PUC are calculated as the from HUD administrative data) using a HUD subsequently applies the
difference between the forecast of model that includes a seasonal calculated individual area inflation
monthly gross rent (using a national difference and seasonal moving average factors to eligible renewal funding for
average) and the forecast of the monthly factor. The other independent variables
each PHA based on VMS leasing and
tenant rent contribution (calculated as are BLS’s civilian employment and
30% of the national average forecast of cost data for the prior calendar year.
unemployment rate data.
monthly tenant adjusted gross income). As stated above, the notional PUC is IV. Geographic Areas and Area
An accurate PUC forecast depends the difference between the national Definitions
upon the interaction of the three factors average monthly gross rent forecast less
mentioned above that determine the 30% of the national average monthly As explained above, inflation factors
voucher subsidy amounts: Rents and voucher tenant household income based on area FMR changes are
utility expenses—together, gross rents— forecast. The national inflation factor is produced for all FMR areas and applied
and tenant incomes. Note that if tenant the annual change in the national to eligible renewal funding for each
incomes grow more strongly than gross average PUC predicted for the current PHA. The tables showing the RFIFs,
rents, voucher costs will grow more calendar year (in this case 2017) divided available electronically from the HUD
slowly than gross rents. This typically by the national average PUC for the data information page, list the inflation
does not occur, as tenant incomes have prior year (in this case 2016). The factors for each FMR area on a state-by-
historically grown more slowly than Calendar Year 2017 PHA HCV state basis. The inflation factors use the
gross rents. However, modeling the allocation uses 3.97 percent as the same OMB metropolitan area
growth in gross rents and tenant national inflation factor. Forecast
incomes independently is an definitions, as revised by HUD, that are
components for each economic series used in the FY 2017 FMRs. PHAs
improvement of the prior methodology, used in the model in FY 2017 were
which forecasted PUC changes directly, should refer to the Area Definitions
taken from the FY 2017 OMB Table on the following Web page to
essentially assuming that gross rents Midsession Review Economic
and tenant incomes grow at the same make certain that they are referencing
Assumptions. the correct inflation factors: http://
rates. In contrast, the new model
expressly captures differences in III. The Use of Inflation Factors www.huduser.org/portal/datasets/rfif/
expected growth rates of the three FY2017/FY2017_RFIF_FMR_AREA_
HUD then calculates individual
relevant factors: Rent of primary REPORT.pdf. The Area Definitions
geographic area inflation factors for each
residence, utilities associated with PHA administering the HCV program to Table lists areas in alphabetical order by
renting a housing unit, and tenant account for relative differences in the state, and the counties associated with
incomes. changes of local rents so that HCV funds each area. In the six New England states,
HUD calculates a gross rent index the listings are for counties or parts of
can be allocated among PHAs according
forecast by combining two indices that counties as defined by towns or cities.
to local costs. HUD does so by assigning
HUD independently forecasts using data HUD is also releasing the data in
each PHA an inflation factor calculated
from the CPI–U: A rent of primary Microsoft Excel format to assist users
residence index and a housing—fuels for its FMR area(s) and then adjusting
these individual inflation factors to be who may wish to use these data in other
and utilities index. The Rent of Primary
consistent with the national forecast. calculations. The Excel file is available
Residence Index (BLS CPI–U
The inflation factor for an individual at https://www.huduser.gov/portal/
component series ‘‘SEHA’’) is weighted
at 80 percent, or 0.8 times, and is geographic area is based on the datasets/rfif/rfif.html.
estimated from quarterly data on annualized change in the area’s FMR
V. Environmental Impact
residential fixed investment from the between FY 2016 and FY 2017.1 These
National Income and Product Accounts, changes in FMRs are then scaled such This notice involves a statutorily
and civilian employment from the that the voucher-weighted average of all required establishment of a rate or cost
Bureau of Labor Statistics. The individual area inflation factors is equal determination which does not constitute
Housing—Fuels and Utilities Index to the national inflation factor, i.e., the a development decision affecting the
(BLS CPI–U component series ‘‘SAH2’’), expected annual change in national PUC physical condition of specific project
a forecast of quarterly utility expense from CY 2016 to CY 2017 (now areas or building sites. Accordingly,
growth, is weighted at 20 percent, or 0.2 calculated using the revised ‘‘notional
under 24 CFR 50.19(c)(6), this notice is
times, and is estimated using the PUC’’ methodology described above),
categorically excluded from
quarterly average spot price in dollars and also such that no area has a factor
less than one. For PHAs operating in environmental review under the
per barrel of West Texas Intermediate National Environmental Policy Act of
crude oil, the quarterly national average multiple FMR areas, HUD calculates a
voucher-weighted average inflation 1969 (42 U.S.C. 4321).
price in dollars per short ton of
bituminous coal, the quarterly average factor based on the count of vouchers in Dated: June 2, 2017.
Henry Hub price of natural gas in each FMR area administered by the PHA Matthew Ammon,
dollars per million BTUs, and the General Deputy Assistant Secretary for Policy
asabaliauskas on DSKBBXCHB2PROD with NOTICES
overall level of the Consumer Price 1 The FY 2017 inflation factors use the one-year
Development and Research.
Index (CPI–U) lagged by 2 quarters. The change in FMRs measured between FY 2016 and FY
2017. As noted in the FY 2016 ‘‘Section 8 Housing [FR Doc. 2017–11936 Filed 6–7–17; 8:45 am]
changes predicted by the gross rent Assistance Payments Program-Fiscal Year (FY) 2016 BILLING CODE 4210–67–P
index forecast are then applied to a Inflation Factors for Public Housing Agency (PHA)
‘‘base’’ gross rent—for this year, the FY Renewal Funding’’ notice, HUD used the
2016 national voucher-weighted average annualized two-year change in FMRs measured
between FY 2014 and FY 2016 because the FY15
two-bedroom FMR—to ‘‘inflate’’ the FY predicted inflation rate was negative. The notice
2016 national average gross rent to its also stated that HUD intended future inflation
projected FY 2017 amount. factors to be based on the one-year change in FMRs.
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Document Created: 2018-11-14 10:07:08
Document Modified: 2018-11-14 10:07:08
| Category | Regulatory Information | |
| Collection | Federal Register | |
| sudoc Class | AE 2.7: GS 4.107: AE 2.106: | |
| Publisher | Office of the Federal Register, National Archives and Records Administration | |
| Section | Notices | |
| Action | Notice. | |
| Dates | Effective Date: June 19, 2017. | |
| Contact | Miguel A. Fontanez, Director, Housing Voucher Financial Division, Office of Public Housing and Voucher Programs, Office of Public and Indian Housing, telephone number 202- 402-4212; or Peter B. Kahn, Director, Economic and Market Analysis Division, Office of Policy Development and Research, telephone number 202-402-2409, for technical information regarding the development of the schedules for specific areas or the methods used for calculating the inflation factors, Department of Housing and Urban Development, 451 7th Street SW., Washington, DC 20410. Hearing- or speech-impaired persons may contact the Federal Relay Service at 800-877-8339 (TTY). (Other than the ``800'' TTY number, the above-listed telephone numbers are not toll free.) | |
| FR Citation | 82 FR 26710 |
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