82_FR_35125 82 FR 34982 - Closing the Temporary Corporate Credit Union Stabilization Fund and Setting the Share Insurance Fund Normal Operating Level

82 FR 34982 - Closing the Temporary Corporate Credit Union Stabilization Fund and Setting the Share Insurance Fund Normal Operating Level

NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION

Federal Register Volume 82, Issue 143 (July 27, 2017)

Page Range34982-34990
FR Document2017-15686

The NCUA Board (Board) is considering closing the Temporary Corporate Credit Union Stabilization Fund (Stabilization Fund) in 2017, prior to its scheduled closing date in June 2021. Closing the Stabilization Fund and distributing all assets, property, and funds to the National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund (Share Insurance Fund) will increase the Share Insurance Fund's equity ratio and allow for the return to insured credit unions of any equity above the normal operating level. The return of excess equity would be accomplished through a distribution from the Share Insurance Fund in conformance with the Federal Credit Union Act (the Act). However, given the nature of certain assets and liabilities of the Stabilization Fund, the Share Insurance Fund's assumption of these assets and liabilities will introduce additional risk of volatility to the Share Insurance Fund's equity ratio. Therefore, the Share Insurance Fund would need to hold sufficient equity to cover potential changes in the value of its claims on the failed corporate credit union asset management estates. In addition, the Share Insurance Fund needs to have enough equity to cover other risks to the equity ratio, such as losses on insured credit unions, under the same macroeconomic conditions that create volatility in the asset management estate values. To ensure the Share Insurance Fund has sufficient equity to absorb these risks, the Board proposes to raise the normal operating level to 1.39 percent. This notice provides a discussion of the reasons the Board is proposing to close the Stabilization Fund in 2017 and the basis used to determine the normal operating level necessary to account for the additional risk to the Share Insurance Fund. In addition, the notice sets forth a new policy by which the Board would set the normal operating level. The Board solicits comments on each of these proposed actions.

Federal Register, Volume 82 Issue 143 (Thursday, July 27, 2017)
[Federal Register Volume 82, Number 143 (Thursday, July 27, 2017)]
[Notices]
[Pages 34982-34990]
From the Federal Register Online  [www.thefederalregister.org]
[FR Doc No: 2017-15686]


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NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION


Closing the Temporary Corporate Credit Union Stabilization Fund 
and Setting the Share Insurance Fund Normal Operating Level

AGENCY: National Credit Union Administration (NCUA).

ACTION: Notice and request for comment.

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SUMMARY: The NCUA Board (Board) is considering closing the Temporary 
Corporate Credit Union Stabilization Fund (Stabilization Fund) in 2017, 
prior to its scheduled closing date in June 2021. Closing the 
Stabilization Fund and distributing all assets, property, and funds to 
the National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund (Share Insurance Fund) 
will increase the Share Insurance Fund's equity ratio and allow for the 
return to insured credit unions of any equity above the normal 
operating level. The return of excess equity would be accomplished 
through a distribution from the Share Insurance Fund in conformance 
with the Federal Credit Union Act (the Act). However, given the nature 
of certain assets and liabilities of the Stabilization Fund, the Share 
Insurance Fund's assumption of these assets and liabilities will 
introduce additional risk of volatility to the Share Insurance Fund's 
equity ratio. Therefore, the Share Insurance Fund would need to hold 
sufficient equity to cover potential changes in the value of its claims 
on the failed corporate credit union asset management estates. In 
addition, the Share Insurance Fund needs to have enough equity to cover 
other risks to the equity ratio, such as losses on insured credit 
unions, under the same macroeconomic conditions that create volatility 
in the asset management estate values. To ensure the Share Insurance 
Fund has sufficient equity to absorb these risks, the Board proposes to 
raise the normal operating level to 1.39 percent.
    This notice provides a discussion of the reasons the Board is 
proposing to close the Stabilization Fund in 2017 and the basis used to 
determine the normal operating level necessary to account for the 
additional risk to the Share Insurance Fund. In addition, the notice 
sets forth a new policy by which the Board would set the normal 
operating level. The Board solicits comments on each of these proposed 
actions.

DATES: Comments must be received on or before September 5, 2017 to be 
assured of consideration.

ADDRESSES: You may submit comments by any of the following methods 
(Please send comments by one method only):
     NCUA Web site: https://www.ncua.gov/about/pages/board-comments.aspx
     Email: Address to [email protected]. Include ``[Your 
name]--Comments on Stabilization Fund Closure'' in the email subject 
line.
     Fax: (703) 518-6319. Use the subject line described above 
for email.
     Mail: Address to Gerald Poliquin, Secretary of the Board, 
National Credit Union Administration, 1775 Duke Street, Alexandria, VA 
22314-3428.
     Hand Delivery/Courier: Same as mail address.
    Public Inspection: You can view all public comments on NCUA's Web 
site at https://www.ncua.gov/about/pages/board-comments.aspx as 
submitted, except for those we cannot post for technical reasons. NCUA 
will not edit or remove any identifying or contact information from the 
public comments submitted. You may inspect paper copies of comments in 
NCUA's headquarters at 1775 Duke Street, Alexandria, VA 22314, by 
appointment weekdays between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. To make an appointment, 
call (703) 518-6360 or send an email to [email protected].

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Anthony Cappetta, Supervisory 
Financial Analyst, at 1775 Duke Street, Alexandria, VA 22314, or 
telephone: (703) 518-1592.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

I. Stabilization Fund Background
II. Legal Matters
III. Closing the Stabilization Fund
IV. The Normal Operating Level
V. Request for Comment

I. Stabilization Fund Background

    Public Law 111-22, Helping Families Save Their Homes Act of 2009 
(Helping Families Act), signed into law by the President on May 20, 
2009 created the Temporary Corporate Credit Union Stabilization Fund. 
Congress provided NCUA with this temporary fund to accrue the losses of 
the corporate credit union system and assess insured credit unions for 
such losses over time. This prevented insured credit unions from 
bearing a significant burden for losses associated with the failure of 
five corporate credit unions within a short period. Without creation of 
the Stabilization Fund, these corporate credit union losses would have 
been borne by the Share Insurance Fund. The magnitude of losses would 
have exhausted the Share Insurance Fund's retained earnings and 
significantly impaired credit unions' one percent contributed capital 
deposit.\1\ The deposit impairment, along with premiums that would have 
been necessary to restore the Share Insurance Fund's equity ratio, 
would have resulted in a significant, immediate cost to credit unions 
at a time when their earnings and capital were already under stress due 
to the Great Recession.\2\ In June 2009, the Board formally approved 
use of the Stabilization Fund for accounting for the costs of the 
Corporate System Resolution Program.\3\ Since then, all of these costs 
have been accounted for in the financial statements of the 
Stabilization Fund.
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    \1\ Prior to reassignment of these costs to the Stabilization 
Fund, the capitalization deposit impairment would have been 89 basis 
points.
    \2\ Because the contributed capital deposit is reflected as an 
asset on the financial statements of insured credit unions, under 
accounting rules any impairment results in an immediate expense to 
credit unions.
    \3\ For more details on the corporate system resolution program, 
please see the NCUA Corporate System Resolution Costs Web page 
(https://www.ncua.gov/regulation-supervision/Pages/corporate-system-resolution.aspx).
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    The Act specifies that the Stabilization Fund will terminate 90 
days after the seven-year anniversary of its first borrowing from the 
U.S. Treasury.\4\ The first borrowing occurred

[[Page 34983]]

on June 25, 2009, making the original closing date September 27, 2016. 
However, the Act provided the Board, with the concurrence of the 
Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, authority to extend the closing date of 
the Stabilization Fund. In June 2010, the Board voted to extend the 
life of the Stabilization Fund and on September 24, 2010, NCUA received 
concurrence from the Secretary of the U.S. Treasury to extend the 
closing date to June 30, 2021.
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    \4\ 12 U.S.C. 1790e(h).
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    In March 2009, the Board conserved U.S. Central Federal Credit 
Union and Western Corporate Credit Union. In September 2010, the Board 
conserved three additional corporate credit unions and publicly 
announced the Corporate System Resolution Program. The Board placed the 
five corporate credit unions into liquidation in the fourth quarter of 
2010. The Board, as Liquidating Agent, administers the assets and 
liabilities of the five failed corporate credit unions in separate 
legal entities, referred to as asset management estates.
    The Corporate System Resolution Program included providing short-
term and long-term funding to resolve a portfolio of residential 
mortgage-backed securities, commercial mortgage-backed securities, 
other asset-backed securities, and corporate bonds (collectively 
referred to as the Legacy Assets) held by the liquidated corporate 
credit unions. Under the Corporate System Resolution Program, NCUA 
created a re-securitization program where NCUA issued a series of NCUA 
Guaranteed Notes (NGNs). The sale of NGNs to investors has provided 
long-term funding for the Legacy Assets. The NGNs are guaranteed by 
NCUA in its Agency capacity, backed by the full faith and credit of the 
United States. While the accounting for obligations associated with the 
NGNs occurs through the Stabilization Fund, the guaranty is not 
specific to the Stabilization Fund. All NCUA agency funds for which 
payments on the NGN guarantees is a permitted use, including the Share 
Insurance Fund, are potential sources for guaranty obligations prior to 
any recourse to the U.S. Treasury.
    During its life, the Stabilization Fund provides the primary 
funding necessary for NCUA's guarantees on the NGNs and to complete the 
resolution of the corporate credit union asset management estates. The 
majority of this funding has been from two primary sources: Borrowings 
of $5.1 billion (peak outstanding balance) on NCUA's $6 billion line of 
credit with the U.S. Treasury and $4.8 billion in Stabilization Fund 
assessments paid by insured credit unions.
    In 2010, when NCUA announced the Corporate System Resolution 
Program, the outstanding principal balance of the Legacy Assets totaled 
over $40 billion--about four times the size of the Share Insurance 
Fund. The initial outstanding balance of guaranteed notes backed by the 
Legacy Assets and sold to investors through the NGN program in 2010 and 
2011 totaled approximately $28 billion--almost three times the size of 
the Share Insurance Fund at that time. As of March 2017, the 
outstanding principal balance of the Legacy Assets and the outstanding 
balance of the guaranteed notes back by them have declined to $12.7 
billion and $7.5 billion, respectively. Both of these balances are less 
than the current size of the Share Insurance Fund, which is $13.2 
billion in total assets as of March 31, 2017.
    The projected range of lifetime Legacy Asset defaults was $13.2 
billion to $16.4 billion as of December 2011. As of March 2017, the 
projected range of lifetime Legacy Asset defaults has declined to $9.9 
billion to $10.3 billion. In addition, NCUA's pursuit of legal 
recoveries in its capacity as Liquidating Agent against various third 
parties in connection with the Legacy Assets has resulted in net 
recoveries of approximately $3.8 billion after fees and expenses.\5\ 
Improved projected performance of the Legacy Assets and legal 
recoveries are the primary reasons the Stabilization Fund's net 
position has increased from negative $7.5 billion as of December 2010 
to a positive $1.6 billion as of March 2017.
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    \5\ NCUA does not include potential future legal recoveries in 
loss projections, as they are inherently inestimable. For a list of 
legal recoveries to date, see NCUA's Legal Recoveries Web site 
(https://www.ncua.gov/regulation-supervision/Pages/corporate-system-resolution/legal-recoveries.aspx).
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    It is now possible for the remaining obligations of the Corporate 
System Resolution Program to be borne by the Share Insurance Fund 
without inordinate risk, provided additional equity is maintained while 
the exposure to remaining resolution program obligations exist. As a 
result, the Board believes the purpose of the Stabilization Fund has 
been fulfilled.\6\ Therefore, the Board proposes to close the 
Stabilization Fund in 2017. Closing the Stabilization Fund at this time 
would increase the equity ratio of the Share Insurance Fund and require 
NCUA to distribute any resulting equity above the normal operating 
level to insured credit unions.\7\ The Board is simultaneously 
publishing a separate proposal to update Sec.  741.4 of NCUA's Rules 
and Regulations regarding the method for Share Insurance Fund 
distributions to insured credit unions.
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    \6\ Worthy of note, if the Stabilization Fund is closed in 2017, 
it would have been in operation about one year longer than the 
original seven years provided for in the Act.
    \7\ The potential return of excess equity would be in the form 
of a distribution to insured credit unions from the Share Insurance 
Fund as provided for in the Act. Stakeholders should not confuse 
this with potential recoveries on depleted member capital. Until 
senior obligations of each particular estate can be satisfied, there 
will not be distributions for any recoveries on depleted member 
capital.
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II. Legal Matters

    The Act sets forth the purpose, permissible expenditures, borrowing 
and repayment authorities, assessment authority, investment authority, 
and procedures for closing the Stabilization Fund.\8\ The statute 
specifically prescribes the conditions for closing the Stabilization 
Fund and distributing its holdings.\9\ The Board has the authority 
under the Act to close the Stabilization Fund at its discretion at any 
time when it has no deficit, which then requires that all of its assets 
and funds be distributed to the Share Insurance Fund.\10\ The 
Stabilization Fund's financial statements have reflected a positive net 
position since June 30, 2014. Therefore, there are currently no 
statutory barriers for the Board in regards to closing the 
Stabilization Fund in 2017. Once the Stabilization Fund is closed, 
there is no statutory authority that permits NCUA to re-open it for any 
reason.
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    \8\ 12 U.S.C. 1790e.
    \9\ 12 U.S.C. 1790e(h).
    \10\ 12 U.S.C. 1790e(g), (h).
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    The Board is aware of industry opinions that the Act may permit a 
distribution to insured credit unions directly from the Stabilization 
Fund. The Board does not believe this is permissible for the following 
reasons.
    NCUA's authority to use Stabilization Fund money arises from the 
reference to 12 U.S.C. 1783(a) in the legislation that created the 
Stabilization Fund.\11\ Specifically, the legislation provides that 
``[m]oney in the Stabilization Fund shall be available upon requisition 
by the Board . . . for making payments for the purposes described in 
Sec.  1783(a) of this title.'' \12\ Except with respect to 
administrative payments, the legislation limits this authority to the 
context of a ``conservatorship, liquidation, or threatened 
conservatorship or liquidation, of a corporate credit union.'' \13\ 
Under section 1783(a),

[[Page 34984]]

permissible uses include payments of insurance under section 1787 of 
the title, for providing assistance and making expenditures under 
section 1788 of the title in connection with the liquidation or 
threatened liquidation of insured credit unions, and for such 
administrative and other expenses incurred in carrying out the purposes 
of the subchapter as the Board may determine to be proper.
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    \11\ 12 U.S.C. 1790e(b).
    \12\ 12 U.S.C. 1790e(b)(1).
    \13\ Id.
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    Here, a distribution, such as an assessment rebate, does not 
plainly meet any of those criteria, assuming an appropriate nexus to a 
corporate credit union conservatorship or liquidation could be 
established in each instance. First, a distribution to insured credit 
unions from the Stabilization Fund, by its namesake alone, would not be 
a payment of insurance under section 1787. Further, a distribution 
could not be in the form of assistance under section 1788, since it 
would not go to credit unions for the assistance purposes described in 
section 1788. Finally, a distribution is not an ``administrative 
expense'' or ``other expense'' in the context of the Act.
    While the general definition of an expense can be quite broad,\14\ 
section 1782(c)(3) of the Act expressly governs distributions to 
insured credit unions. Distributions under section 1782(c)(3) are not 
included as an authority that Congress granted for the Stabilization 
Fund, particularly since Congress expressly tied Stabilization Fund 
authority to section 1783(a), to the exclusion of any other section. On 
the contrary, the Stabilization Fund legislation references section 
1782(c)(3) only with respect to distributions flowing into the 
Stabilization Fund, in any circumstances where U.S. Treasury borrowings 
remain outstanding.\15\
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    \14\ Black's Law Dictionary characterizes an expense as ``[a]n 
expenditure of money, time, labor or resources to accomplish a 
result.'' Black's Law Dictionary 617 (8th ed. 2004).
    \15\ 12 U.S.C. 1790e(e).
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    In the only other circumstance where the legislation references a 
distribution in any manner, it is in reference to the Stabilization 
Fund's closing.\16\ In that circumstance, the Act limits a distribution 
of all ``funds, property or other assets remaining in the Stabilization 
Fund'' to one recipient: The Share Insurance Fund.\17\ For these 
reasons, the Board believes the Stabilization Fund must be closed 
before a distribution of excess funds to insured credit unions can 
occur for purposes other than those described in section 1783(a).
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    \16\ 12 U.S.C. 1790e(h).
    \17\ Id. Within 90 days following the seventh anniversary of the 
initial Stabilization Fund advance, or earlier at the Board's 
discretion, the Board shall distribute any funds, property, or other 
assets remaining in the Stabilization Fund to the Insurance Fund and 
shall close the Stabilization Fund.
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III. Closing the Stabilization Fund

A. Accounting and Financial Reporting

    The financial statements of the Stabilization Fund and the Share 
Insurance Fund are presented under standards promulgated by the Federal 
Accounting Standards Advisory Board (FASAB). These financial statements 
are presented and audited by calendar year. With the closing of the 
Stabilization Fund, NCUA intends to prepare final financial statements 
for the Stabilization Fund as of September 30, 2017. These financial 
statements would be audited by NCUA's Office of the Inspector General.
    Per applicable accounting standards, the assets and liabilities of 
the Stabilization Fund will be distributed to the Share Insurance Fund 
at September 30, 2017 values. This transfer will increase the net 
position of the Share Insurance Fund, resulting in an increase to the 
equity ratio. As required by applicable accounting standards, certain 
budgetary accounts will also transfer and be shown in the Statement of 
Budgetary Resources. NCUA determined the applicable accounting 
standards in consultation with an independent accounting firm.
    The post-closure financial statements and note disclosures for the 
Share Insurance Fund will continue to provide the same level of detail 
about the receivables from the corporate asset management estates and 
the related fiduciary activities. That is, the detailed note 
disclosures in the Stabilization Fund's financial statements will now 
be in the note disclosures of the Share Insurance Fund's financial 
statements. NCUA does not envision any changes to the accounting for 
the asset management estates. The accounting for each asset management 
estate has and will remain distinct, which is a requisite in fulfilling 
the Board's responsibility as Liquidating Agent.
    For illustrative purposes, Table 1 depicts the March 31, 2017 Share 
Insurance Fund balance sheet (unaudited), the March 31, 2017 
Stabilization Fund balance sheet (unaudited), and the pro-forma Share 
Insurance Fund balance sheet (unaudited) as if the Stabilization Fund 
were closed on that day.\18\
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    \18\ The impact on the post-closure Share Insurance Fund 
financial statements will be based on actual results at the time the 
Stabilization Fund is closed and the presentation may vary somewhat 
due to the specific application of accounting standards on 
individual line items.

Table 1--Share Insurance Fund and Stabilization Fund Balance Sheets, Pre- and Post-Closure, as of March 31, 2017
                                              [Dollars in millions]
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                                                                       Share                           Share
                                                                     insurance     Stabilization     insurance
                                                                    fund (pre-      fund (pre-      fund (post-
                                                                     closure)        closure)        closure)
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                                                     Assets
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Fund Balance with Treasury & Investments........................       $12,766.2          $700.4       $13,466.6
Notes Receivable, Net...........................................             8.7  ..............             8.7
Capitalization Deposits Receivable..............................           316.5  ..............           316.5
Receivable from Asset Management Estates, Net (NPCU)............            51.3  ..............            51.3
Receivable from Asset Management Estates, Net (CCU).............  ..............           876.3           876.3
Accrued Interest and Other Assets...............................            61.2             2.7            63.9
                                                                 -----------------------------------------------
    Total Assets................................................        13,203.9         1,579.4        14,783.3
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                                          Liabilities and Net Position
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Accounts Payable and Other Liabilities..........................            26.0             1.1            27.1
Borrowings from U.S. Treasury...................................  ..............  ..............  ..............
Insurance and Guarantee Program Liabilities.....................           245.6  ..............           245.6
Net Position--Contributed Capital Deposits......................        10,285.8  ..............        10,258.8

[[Page 34985]]

 
Net Position--Cumulative Results of Operations..................         2,646.5         1,578.3         4,224.8
                                                                 -----------------------------------------------
    Total Liabilities and Net Position..........................        13,203.9         1,579.4        14,783.3
                                                                 -----------------------------------------------
        Total Net Position......................................        12,932.3         1,578.3        14,510.6
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    Subsequent to March 31, 2017, and prior to the end of the year, 
there are several items that have been or are expected to be recognized 
that will ultimately affect the net position of the Share Insurance 
Fund. Table 2 includes these additional items and the effect on the 
projected net position as of December 31, 2017.

 Table 2--Breakdown of Projected Net Position Components by December 31,
                                  2017
                         [Dollars in thousands]
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                                                           Amount  (in
                       Component                            millions)
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March 31, 2017 Pro-Forma Net Position (Post-Closure)--           $14,511
 From Table 1 Above...................................
    Plus: Legal Recoveries that Increase the Value of                310
     the Receivable from the AMEs.....................
    Plus: Estimated Recovery on U.S. Central Capital        \20\ 500-800
     Note \19\........................................
    Plus: Share Insurance Fund Net Income 2017q2-                   (26)
     2017q4 \21\......................................
    Plus: Adjustment to 1% Contributed Capital Deposit               383
     \22\.............................................
                                                       -----------------
Equals: Adjusted Net Position (Post-Closure), as of 12/    15,678-15,978
 31/17................................................
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B. Effect on Share Insurance Fund Equity Ratio and Distributions
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    \19\ The estimated recovery includes U.S. Central's portion of 
the recent legal recoveries.
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    The Share Insurance Fund equity ratio is defined in the Act as the 
ratio of the amount of Fund capitalization, including insured credit 
unions' 1 percent capitalization deposits and the retained earnings 
balance of the Fund (net of direct liabilities of the fund and 
contingent liabilities for which no provision has been made) to the 
aggregate amount of insured shares in all insured credit unions.\23\ It 
serves as a measure of the Share Insurance Fund's overall strength and 
ability to absorb losses. In general, the Act requires the Board to 
manage the Share Insurance Fund's equity ratio within a range of 1.20 
percent to 1.50 percent.
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    \20\ This estimated range only reflects what is projected to be 
recognizable by December 31, 2017 under applicable accounting rules, 
which mainly includes the portion of the U.S. Central capital note 
for which there is cash available for repayment.
    \21\ Assuming current yield on investments, insurance losses 
equal to the five-year average, and operating expenses based on the 
currently approved NCUA budget.
    \22\ Based on share growth of 3.71 percent in the first quarter 
2017 and the historical share of adjusted contributed capital 
deposit adjustments collected in October each year.
    \23\ 12 U.S.C. 1782(h)(2).
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    The closure of the Stabilization Fund would increase the Share 
Insurance Fund's net position. This would result in an increase to the 
Share Insurance Fund's equity ratio. Table 3 shows the estimated equity 
ratio of the Share Insurance Fund as of December 31, 2017 as if the 
Stabilization Fund were closed.

 Table 3--Projected Share Insurance Fund Equity Ratio as of December 31,
                                  2017
                         [Dollars in thousands]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Amount  (in
                       Component                            millions)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Adjusted Net Position Post Closure--From Table 2 Above   $15,678-$15,978
  Less: Gain(Loss) on Investments \24\................             ($66)
                                                       -----------------
Equals: Equity Ratio Numerator........................   $15,744-$16,044
Equity Ratio Denominator: Projected Insured Shares as         $1,089,500
 of December 31, 2017 \25\............................
Projected Calendar Yearend 2017 Equity Ratio \26\.....       1.45%-1.47%
------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The Share Insurance Fund's calendar yearend equity ratio is part of 
the statutory basis to determine whether NCUA must make a distribution 
to insured credit unions.\27\ The Act states ``the Board shall effect a 
pro rata distribution to insured credit unions after each calendar year 
if, as of the end of that calendar year--
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    \24\ Actual gain(loss) on investments as of March 31, 2017 and 
could be materially different as of December 31, 2017.
    \25\ Based on 5.8 percent annual insured share growth, which is 
the three-year average insured share growth for the industry.
    \26\ This does not account for extraordinary losses and/or 
failures in credit unions, abnormally high insured-share growth, or 
a significant downturn in economic conditions, including declining 
interest rates.
    \27\ The equity ratio is also part of the statutory basis for 
determining whether a premium or Share Insurance Fund restoration 
plan is necessary.

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[[Page 34986]]

     Any loans to the Fund from the Federal Government, and any 
interest on those loans, have been repaid;
     The Fund's equity ratio exceeds the normal operating 
level; and
     The Fund's available assets ratio exceeds 1.0 percent.'' 
\28\
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    \28\ 12 U.S.C. 1782(c)(3). This section is also subject to 12 
U.S.C. 1790e(e).
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    As of October 24, 2016, all NCUA borrowings from the Federal 
Government had been repaid. The Share Insurance Fund's available asset 
ratio is 1.21 percent as of March 31, 2017, well above the 1.0 percent 
minimum and is projected to remain above 1.0 percent.\29\
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    \29\ After closure, NCUA estimates the Share Insurance Fund 
would hold $4 billion in surplus funds over the 1.0 percent minimum 
ratio. NCUA currently projects $2.8 billion in guaranty payments on 
the NGNs after 2017. However, the current estimate for the funding 
needs net of related cash flows is approximately $1 billion.
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    To the extent the equity ratio exceeds the normal operating level 
as of calendar yearend 2017, a distribution would be paid to insured 
credit unions in accordance with the Act and Sec.  741.4 of NCUA 
regulations. The distribution in total would equal the dollar amount of 
equity in excess of the normal operating level. For additional 
information on how the pro rata distribution would be made, see the 
July 2017 Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on this subject.

IV. The Normal Operating Level

    Per the Act, the normal operating level is an equity ratio set by 
the Board and may not be less than 1.20 percent and not more than 1.50 
percent.\30\ As noted above, if the calendar yearend equity ratio 
exceeds the normal operating level, NCUA is required to make a pro rata 
distribution to insured credit unions. The Board has historically set 
the normal operating level as the target equity ratio for the Share 
Insurance Fund.
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    \30\ 12 U.S.C. 1782(h)(4).
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    The current normal operating level is 1.30 percent, set by the 
Board in 2007 based on the Board-approved methodology in place at that 
time. When establishing the 1.30 percent normal operating level in 
2007, the Board affirmed that the Share Insurance Fund would maintain a 
counter-cyclical posture. In practice, this means the Share Insurance 
Fund's equity should be built up during periods of economic prosperity 
and allowed to decline during periods of economic adversity. A counter-
cyclical posture allows NCUA to maintain the Share Insurance Fund at a 
level that is sufficient for it to remain viable even during economic 
stress conditions without having to charge a premium when credit unions 
can least afford it.
    With the proposed closing of the Stabilization Fund, the Board 
considered whether the current normal operating level of 1.30 percent 
would be sufficient to cover all of the Share Insurance Fund's 
resulting exposures. To determine this, NCUA modeled the losses that 
would be expected under a moderate and a severe recession.\31\ For the 
two recession scenarios, the agency modeled the:
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    \31\ In estimating the equity ratio under various economic 
stress scenarios, NCUA must make estimates and assumptions that 
affect the model output. Actual results could differ from NCUA's 
estimates; however, the agency evaluates the reasonableness of such 
estimates when analyzing the model output. The base scenario for 
modeling the performance of the Share Insurance Fund is a moderate 
economic expansion through the projection period with Treasury rates 
assumed to rise steadily across the maturity spectrum, the 
unemployment rate remains low and housing prices rise slightly.
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     Impact on the equity ratio of the estimated decline in the 
value of the Share Insurance Fund's claims on the liquidated corporate 
credit unions' asset management estates--which would be driven by a 
reduction in the value of the Legacy Assets.
     Performance of the Share Insurance Fund based on the three 
primary factors that currently affect the Share Insurance Fund's equity 
ratio: Insured share growth, yield on investments, and insurance 
losses.
    The Share Insurance Fund was modeled over a five-year period and 
the Legacy Assets were modeled over their remaining life.\32\ NCUA used 
the applicable variables describing economic developments for the 
Adverse and Severely Adverse economic scenarios from the Federal 
Reserve Board's 2017 annual stress test supervisory scenarios.\33\ In 
the Adverse scenario, the U.S. economy experiences a moderate 
recession, and asset prices decline. This scenario is characterized by 
weakening economic activity, including higher unemployment, falling 
short-term interest rates, long-term interest rates that slowly rise, a 
steadily rising unemployment rate, and sustained declines in housing 
prices. The Severely Adverse scenario is characterized by a severe 
global recession that is accompanied by a period of heightened stress 
in corporate loan markets and commercial real estate markets. In this 
scenario, the unemployment rate spikes, short-term interest rates fall 
to near zero, long-term interest rates fall initially then increase 
slightly, and housing prices decline substantially. Further details on 
how these scenarios were applied to model the value of the claims on 
the corporate asset management estates and the performance of the Share 
Insurance Fund are provided below.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \32\ A five-year horizon (beginning at yearend 2017) was used to 
cover the cycle of an economic downturn and the life of the NGN 
program.
    \33\ Supervisory Scenarios for Annual Stress Test Required under 
the Dodd-Frank Act Stress Testing Rules and the Capital Plan Rule, 
February 10, 2017 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/bcreg20170203a5.pdf).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

A. Determining Equity Needed To Cover Potential Declines in the Value 
of Claims on the Corporate Credit Union Asset Management Estates

    At NCUA's request, BlackRock incorporated the Adverse and Severely 
Adverse macroeconomic scenarios into its proprietary models to project 
cash flows for all of the Legacy Assets.\34\ In both the Adverse and 
Severely Adverse macroeconomic scenarios, the value of the Legacy 
Assets declines.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \34\ The NGNs remaining after yearend 2017 do not mature until 
2020 and 2021. Because these NGNs do not have a call feature (other 
than a clean-up call provision when the Legacy Asset balances are 10 
percent or less or their balances when transferred to the NGNs, 
which NCUA does not expect to be triggered), they cannot be retired 
early.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Credit spreads indicative of Adverse and Severely Adverse market 
conditions are applied to the forward interest rate curve to arrive at 
a discount rate to calculate the present value of the Legacy Asset cash 
flows, as shown in Table 4. For the Adverse scenario, credit spreads 
similar to the period of the U.S. credit rating downgrade in August 
2011 were used. For the Severely Adverse scenario, credit spreads 
similar to the peak of the Great Recession in 2009 were used.

[[Page 34987]]



                                                       Table 4--Discounted Legacy Asset Cash Flows
                                                                  [Dollars in billions]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                          Scenario                            Differences from base
                                                                    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                           Severely                          Severely
                                                                           Base           Adverse          adverse          Adverse          adverse
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total..............................................................           $10.3             $8.3             $7.3           ($2.0)           ($3.0)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The projected Legacy Asset cash flows are aggregated by NGN and run 
through the applicable NGN waterfall to determine their related 
projected cash flows. As shown in Table 5, the NGN-related cash flows 
include guaranty fees paid to NCUA, guaranty payments made by NCUA to 
NGN investors for principal and interest shortfalls, guaranty 
reimbursements made to NCUA for any guaranty payments made, and any 
residual cash flows left after all of these payments have been made. 
The present value of the NGN cash flows is determined by the same 
discounting approach discussed above.

                                       Table 5--Discounted NGN Cash Flows
                                              [Dollars in billions]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     Scenario                          Differences from base
                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Cash flow                                                Severely                        Severely
                                       Base           Adverse         adverse         Adverse         adverse
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Guaranty Fees...................            $0.1            $0.1            $0.1            $0.0            $0.0
Guaranty Payments...............           (3.2)           (4.0)           (4.4)           (0.8)           (1.2)
Guaranty Reimbursements.........             3.0             3.3             3.5             0.3             0.5
Residuals.......................             3.5             2.1             1.3           (1.4)           (2.2)
                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total.......................             3.4             1.5             0.5           (1.9)           (2.9)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NCUA then applied the un-securitized projected Legacy Asset cash 
flows and NGN cash flows to the applicable asset management estates 
based on the payout priorities in NCUA regulations.\35\ This results in 
an estimate of the change in the net receivable from asset management 
estates due to NCUA, as well as changes in NCUA's projected recovery on 
the U.S. Central capital note.\36\ For each asset management estate, 
the impact of the stress scenarios will differ depending on the 
specific circumstances of the estate. While the decreases in Legacy 
Asset and NGN cash flows under the Adverse and Severely Adverse 
scenarios are approximately $2 billion and $3 billion, respectively, 
the net impact on the value of NCUA's claims--and ultimately the equity 
ratio--is different, primarily due to how these funds flow through the 
payout priorities applicable to each asset management estate. This is 
shown in Table 6.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \35\ Payout priorities are outlined in 12 CFR 709.5.
    \36\ For more information on the U.S. Central capital note, see 
NCUA's costs and assessments Q&A (https://www.ncua.gov/Resources/Documents/QA-Corporate-Resolution-Costs-and-Assessments.pdf).
    \37\ These numbers represent both the $0.1 billion of net 
receivable due to NCUA and the $0.8 billion expected to be 
recognized for the U.S. Central capital note. While NCUA believes 
the full $1 billion capital note will be collected, $0.8 billion 
represents NCUA's estimate of the recognizable value under 
accounting rules at yearend 2017.

                     Table 6--Net Receivable to NCUA Plus U.S. Central Capital Note Recovery
                                              [Dollars in billions]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     Scenario                          Differences from base
                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             Estate                                                  Severely                        Severely
                                       Base           Adverse         adverse         Adverse         adverse
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Central \37\...............            $0.9            $0.9            $0.5            $0.0          ($0.4)
WesCorp.........................             0.9             0.5             0.3           (0.4)           (0.6)
Members.........................             0.2             0.2             0.1             0.0           (0.1)
Southwest.......................             0.0             0.0             0.0             0.0             0.0
Constitution....................             0.0             0.0             0.0             0.0             0.0
                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total.......................             2.0             1.6             0.9           (0.4)           (1.1)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Under the Adverse scenario, NCUA projects a decline in value of its 
receivables from asset management estates, net of approximately $400 
million, which would equate to a 4-basis point reduction in the Share 
Insurance Fund's equity ratio. Under the Severely Adverse scenario, the 
potential decline in value is approximately $1.1 billion or 11 basis 
points.\38\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \38\ There are four asset management estates projected to have 
recoveries for investors in depleted capital instruments of the 
failed corporates. Depleted capital recoveries would decrease by 
approximately $1.5 billion and $1.7 billion under the Adverse and 
Severely Adverse scenarios, respectively. This estimate accounts for 
any depleted member capital claims the other four asset management 
estates have against the U.S. Central asset management estate. 
However, all five estates are currently expected to have outstanding 
senior creditor obligations, including to the Stabilization Fund (or 
Share Insurance Fund after closure) via the guaranty provided on the 
NGNs until 2021. Thus, until senior creditor obligations can be 
satisfied with certainty--that is repaid or fully funded, including 
for contingencies--it would be inappropriate for NCUA to make 
payments to the subordinated depleted capital claimants.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[Page 34988]]

B. Determining Equity Needed To Cover Other Risks to the Equity Ratio 
of the Share Insurance Fund 39
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \39\ The performance of the Share Insurance Fund described here 
does not include the losses discussed above related to the claims on 
the corporate credit union asset management estates. The Share 
Insurance Fund performance is modeled here based on the current 
financial position, without factoring in the potential Stabilization 
Fund closure.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NCUA uses the relevant variables from the economic scenarios 
outlined above to project the values of the three primary drivers of 
the Share Insurance Fund: Insured share growth, insurance losses, and 
yield on investments. NCUA developed regression equations that relate 
the historical movements of economic variables to movements in two of 
the primary drivers of the Share Insurance Fund equity ratio: Insurance 
losses and growth in insured shares. The equations translate the 
economic conditions in the Adverse and Severely Adverse scenarios into 
projections of the level of losses and insured share growth. The 
equations are relatively straightforward and translate economic 
developments into Share Insurance Fund drivers in a commonsense way 
using historical data that extends back to the early-to-mid 1990s. For 
example, the equation for share growth relates annual growth in total 
shares (inflation-adjusted) from 1991 to 2016 to the unemployment rate, 
the change in the average annual unemployment rate, the change in the 
average annual three-month Treasury bill, and the year-to-year growth 
in real disposable income. In the equation, a rise in unemployment 
first raises share growth, but continued high unemployment eventually 
leads to lower growth. Faster income growth tends to lead to faster 
share growth, and a rising interest rate tends to reduce share growth.
    For the insurance loss equation, NCUA projects the portion of 
shares accounted for by CAMEL 4 and 5 rated federally insured credit 
unions using data from 1996 to 2016 for the unemployment rate and house 
price growth.\40\ As expected, a higher unemployment rate tends to 
increase insurance losses, as does falling house prices. Then, the 
dollar value of losses is projected as a constant percentage of the 
portion of shares in CAMEL 4 and 5 rated institutions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \40\ See Letter to Credit Unions 07-CU-12 CAMEL Rating System 
for more information on NCUA's CAMEL rating system.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    To determine the yield on the Share Insurance Fund investment 
portfolio, interest rate inputs are taken directly from the Adverse and 
Severely Adverse stress scenarios. These inputs are applied to the 
Share Insurance Fund's investment portfolio assuming a seven-year 
ladder.\41\ Table 7 outlines the resulting inputs used each year of the 
projections for the key drivers to forecast the equity ratio under the 
various stress scenarios.\42\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \41\ The interest rate inputs used were provided by 
Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC (April 2017). These inputs were used for 
two reasons: (1) The Federal Reserve scenarios do not provide the 
yield on the seven-year Treasury note, which NCUA uses in the stress 
scenarios. Macroeconomic Advisers uses its proprietary model to 
extend the Federal Reserve scenarios to a wider array of economic 
variables, including the full yield curve. (2) Macroeconomic 
Advisers advances the beginning of the Federal Reserve scenarios to 
the second quarter of 2017, rather than beginning in the first 
quarter. This was necessary because, when conducing analysis of the 
Share Insurance Fund, first quarter data was already known. 
Macroeconomic Advisers scenarios match the Federal Reserve scenarios 
for variables provided by the Federal Reserve, but the timing is 
advanced on quarter into the future relative to the published 
Federal Reserve scenarios, so that the Adverse and Severely Adverse 
shocks begin in the second quarter of 2017. Using these scenarios 
allows NCUA to implement the full effects of the downturn scenarios 
developed by the Federal Reserve.
    \42\ These are stress scenarios and do not represent forecasts 
of likely outcomes. Federal Reserve stress scenarios provide data 
through the first quarter of 2020. These scenarios are extended 
through 2021 by Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC using a proprietary 
model. NCUA assumes that values for the economic variables in 2022 
are the same as they were in 2021 (for variables that are rates or 
growth rates).

                   Table 7--Projected Inputs for the Primary Drivers of the Equity Ratio \43\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                              Base                     Adverse              Severely  adverse
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Insured Share Growth..............  2017: 5.10%               2017: 6.60%               2017: 6.92%
                                    2018: 5.30%               2018: 6.30%               2018: 6.20%
                                    2019: 5.50%               2019: 4.20%               2019: 2.34%
                                    2020: 5.60%               2020: 3.70%               2020: 1.66%
                                    2021: 6.00%               2021: 3.90%               2021: 2.48%
                                    2022: 5.70%               2022: 4.67%               2022: 3.90%
Insurance Losses (in millions)....  2017: $52.1               2017: $142.0              2017: $216.0
                                    2018: $58.1               2018: $311.2              2018: $532.0
                                    2019: $52.4               2019: $257.8              2019: $425.4
                                    2020: $60.2               2020: $202.8              2020: $292.4
                                    2021: $78.1               2021: $164.2              2021: $230.4
                                    2022: $76.7               2022: $188.6              2022: $269.6
Yield on Investment Portfolio.....  2017: 1.64%               2017: 1.56%               2017: 1.48%
                                    2018: 1.92%               2018: 1.73%               2018: 1.49%
                                    2019: 2.16%               2019: 1.84%               2019: 1.47%
                                    2020: 2.40%               2020: 1.93%               2020: 1.47%
                                    2021: 2.57%               2021: 2.00%               2021: 1.46%
                                    2022: 2.74%               2022: 2.05%               2022: 1.51%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As  shown above, insured share growth rises initially as consumers 
move funds into safer, federally insured savings instruments--a pattern 
that is highly correlated to economic downturns. After an initial 
surge, growth in insured shares slows reflecting worsening economic 
conditions. Toward the end of the stress scenarios, growth begins to 
increase reflecting some rebound in the overall economy. Insurance 
losses peak at the beginning of the economic stress and then decline 
and stabilize over the following years. Overnight rates drop to 10 
basis points for the entire period and the yield on investments drops 
over the first three years, and then increases as the economy begins to 
recover.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \43\ NCUA used the current budget growth of 4.1 percent in each 
scenario as the operating expense input.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The results of each stress scenario, expressed as the calendar 
yearend Share Insurance Fund equity ratio, are included in Table 8 
(based on the current equity ratio of 1.26 percent).\44\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \44\ Using the figures in Table 1 and Table 3 above, the 
calendar yearend equity ratio of the Share Insurance Fund is 
projected to be 1.23 percent, if the Stabilization Fund is not 
closed in 2017.

[[Page 34989]]



                                          Table 8--Projected Equity Ratio Under Various Economic Stresses \45\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                            2017q1 (%)       2017 (%)        2018 (%)        2019 (%)        2020 (%)        2021 (%)        2022 (%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline................................            1.26            1.26            1.24            1.24            1.23            1.23            1.23
Adverse.................................            1.26            1.25            1.21            1.18            1.16            1.15            1.14
Severely Adverse........................            1.26            1.24            1.18            1.13            1.11            1.09            1.06
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Neither the Adverse nor the Severely Adverse scenario causes the 
equity ratio of the Share Insurance Fund to fall below 1.00 percent, 
the level at which credit union's contributed capital deposit would 
begin to be impaired.\46\ However, by yearend 2019, under both the 
Adverse and Severely Adverse scenarios, the equity ratio falls below 
1.20 percent--the statutory trigger for either assessing premiums or 
developing a Share Insurance Fund restoration plan. Under the Adverse 
and Severely Adverse scenarios, for the equity ratio to not fall below 
1.20 percent during the full projection timeframe, the equity ratio at 
yearend 2017 would have to be 1.33 percent and 1.41 percent, 
respectively.\47\ However, the actual results could vary from these 
projections based on a variety of factors, including:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \45\ These scenarios do not account for any substantial increase 
in NCUA's operating budget or increases in the loss rate of CAMEL 4 
and 5 rated credit unions, both of which may increase in times of 
economic stress.
    \46\ Credit unions' one percent contributed capital deposits are 
included in the numerator of the equity ratio and are available to 
absorb losses of the Share Insurance Fund. However, because the 
contributed capital deposits are recorded both as equity to the 
Share Insurance Fund and as assets to credit unions, if NCUA were to 
use any part of this capital to absorb losses, credit unions would 
have to write-down (expense) this asset. At the same time, credit 
unions would be required to deposit additional funds to adjust their 
contributions back to a full one percent of their insured shares.
    \47\ Similar results are obtained if the Share Insurance Fund is 
stressed over two years using the highest observed stress factors 
during the last ten years.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

     Projected declines in the equity ratio, even under no 
economic stress.
     Extraordinary losses and/or failures in credit unions that 
are not market related, such as those from fraud or other asset 
``bubbles''.
     Unusual or abnormally high insured share growth materially 
different from the historical correlation.
     Economic conditions that involve greater volatility in one 
or more market indicators as compared to the stress scenarios modeled.

C. Approach for Setting the Normal Operating Level

    The Board has the responsibility to be prudent in managing the 
Share Insurance Fund. In addition to maintaining public confidence in 
federal share insurance, it is important that NCUA maintain a strong 
Share Insurance Fund for the mutual benefit of the credit union 
community and the taxpayers. The Board believes that the Share 
Insurance Fund should be able to withstand a moderate recession without 
the equity ratio falling below 1.20 percent. This approach is 
consistent with the Act's minimum equity level for the Share Insurance 
Fund set by Congress. Additionally, it allows NCUA to maintain a 
counter-cyclical posture, which helps to ensure that credit unions will 
not need to impair their contributed capital deposit or pay premiums 
when they can least afford it. The Board does not believe it should set 
the normal operating level at a point where mandatory premiums or 
development of a Fund restoration plan would be necessary in a moderate 
recession.\48\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \48\ The Board believes its authority to establish a Fund 
restoration plan in lieu of mandatory premiums should only be used 
for severe, unexpected circumstances. While the Board can develop a 
restoration plan to restore the Share Insurance Fund to 1.20 percent 
within eight years (or longer in extraordinary circumstances), this 
could necessitate one or more relatively large premiums. Further, it 
could erode public confidence in federal share insurance.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The Board also considered the amount of equity necessary for the 
Share Insurance Fund to withstand a severe global recession without 
having the equity ratio fall below 1.20 percent. While the Severely 
Adverse stress scenario is more conservative, the Board believes 
managing to the Adverse scenario provides a good balance between 
maintaining sufficient equity in the Share Insurance Fund and keeping 
money at work in the credit union community.
    Based on the analyses above, Table 9 shows the calculation of what 
the equity ratio needs to be to withstand a moderate and a severe 
recession without falling below 1.20 percent.

  Table 9--Equity Ratio Needed to Withstand an Economic Stress by Risk
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                             Severely
                                          Adverse stress  adverse stress
                                           scenario (%)    scenario (%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Equity for Share Insurance Fund Stress..       \49\ 1.33            1.41
Equity for Claims on AMEs (see Table 6).            0.04            0.11
Projected Equity Ratio Decline in 2018              0.02            0.02
 and 2019 (based on current performance
 trends) \50\...........................
                                         -------------------------------
    Total...............................            1.39       \51\ 1.54
------------------------------------------------------------------------

    To withstand a moderate recession without the equity ratio falling 
below 1.20 percent, the Share Insurance Fund's equity ratio needs to be 
high enough to withstand the following:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \49\ The 2007 Board-approved policy would also result in a 
recommended normal operating level above 1.30 percent. To date, the 
Board has maintained the normal operating level at 1.30 percent, 
which has allowed NCUA to use the excess equity to help repay 
outstanding U.S. Treasury borrowings.
    \50\ The equity ratio has been declining over the last several 
years and is expected to continue to decline because of the low 
yield on Share Insurance Fund investments and strong insured share 
growth. For additional information on the methodology used to 
project the equity ratio using current trends, refer to the 
information provided at the November 2016 Open Board Meeting 
(https://www.ncua.gov/About/Documents/Agenda%20Items/AG20161117Item5a.pdf).
    \51\ This exceeds the statutory maximum normal operating level 
of 1.50 percent.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

     A 13 basis point decline in the equity ratio due to the 
impact on the

[[Page 34990]]

three primary drivers of the Share Insurance Fund's performance.
     A 4 basis point decline in the value of the Share 
Insurance Fund's claim on the corporate credit union asset management 
estates.
     A 2 basis point decline in the equity ratio expected to 
occur prior to when the remaining NGNs begin to mature in 2020 and 
remaining exposure to the Legacy Assets can begin to be reduced. This 
helps ensure the 4 basis points of additional equity to account for the 
potential decline in value of the claims on the asset management 
estates is maintained in the Share Insurance Fund until Legacy Assets 
can be sold.\52\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \52\ The Board must consider retaining this equity now, because 
as the equity ratio declines, the Board would be unable to replenish 
the equity through premium assessments as long as the equity ratio 
remains above 1.30 percent, per the Act. 12 U.S.C. 1782(c)(2)(B).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Therefore, the Board proposes to set the normal operating level at 
1.39 percent. Based on the yearend equity ratio projections of 1.45 
percent to 1.47 percent from Table 3, this would result in an estimated 
initial Share Insurance Fund distribution of 6 to 8 basis points 
(approximately $600 to $800 million) paid in 2018.\53\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \53\ The 4 basis points of equity included for covering losses 
on the Share Insurance Fund's claims against the corporate asset 
management estates, along with any recognition permitted on the 
outstanding balance of the $1 billion U.S. Central capital note (an 
estimated range of 2 to 5 basis points of equity), may be available 
for a future Share Insurance Fund distribution--provided it is not 
consumed by an increase in future legacy asset losses from an 
economic downturn or other losses and factors affecting the equity 
ratio. Future distributions also depend on any subsequent changes 
the Board might make to the normal operating level.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Policy for Setting the Normal Operating Level
    The Board retains the authority to reassess and set the normal 
operating level periodically, in particular when there are changes in 
the risks to the Share Insurance Fund's equity ratio, such as maturity 
of the NGNs. Based on the approach discussed above, the Board proposes 
to replace its current policy for setting the normal operating level 
with the following.\54\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \54\ The current policy was approved at the December 3, 2007 
NCUA Board meeting open to the public.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Periodically, NCUA will review the equity needs of the Share 
Insurance Fund and provide this analysis to stakeholders. Board action 
is only necessary when this review determines that a change in the 
normal operating level is warranted. Any change to the normal operating 
level of more than 1 basis point shall be made only after a public 
announcement of the proposed adjustment and opportunity for comment. In 
soliciting comment, NCUA will issue a report including data supporting 
the proposal.
    The Board's main objectives in setting the normal operating level 
are to:
     Retain public confidence in federal share insurance,
     Prevent impairment of the one percent contributed capital 
deposit, and
     Ensure the Share Insurance Fund can withstand a moderate 
recession without the equity ratio declining below 1.20 percent over a 
five-year period.

V. Request for Comment

    The Board seeks comments on the proposed closure of the 
Stabilization Fund in 2017 and the related approach for setting the 
normal operating level of the Share Insurance Fund. Commenters are also 
encouraged to discuss any other relevant issues they believe the Board 
should consider with respect to this matter. In particular, the Board 
is interested in comments on whether to:
     Close the Stabilization Fund in 2017, close it at some 
future date, or wait until it is currently scheduled to close in 2021.
     Set the normal operating level based on the Share 
Insurance Fund's ability to withstand a moderate recession. Or, should 
the Share Insurance Fund be able to withstand a severe recession.
     Base the approach to setting the normal operating level on 
preventing the equity ratio from declining below 1.20 percent, or some 
other higher minimum level.
    Commenters are encouraged to provide the specific basis for their 
comments and, to the extent feasible, documentation to support any 
recommendations.

    By the National Credit Union Administration Board on July 20, 
2017.
Gerard S. Poliquin,
Secretary of the Board.
[FR Doc. 2017-15686 Filed 7-26-17; 8:45 am]
 BILLING CODE 7535-01-P



                                                  34982                          Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 143 / Thursday, July 27, 2017 / Notices

                                                  collecting the information, including                    Insurance Fund’s assumption of these                  FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
                                                  through information technology; and (e)                  assets and liabilities will introduce                 Anthony Cappetta, Supervisory
                                                  whether the collection affects small                     additional risk of volatility to the Share            Financial Analyst, at 1775 Duke Street,
                                                  businesses. In this notice, we solicit                   Insurance Fund’s equity ratio.                        Alexandria, VA 22314, or telephone:
                                                  comments concerning the following                        Therefore, the Share Insurance Fund                   (703) 518–1592.
                                                  information collection:                                  would need to hold sufficient equity to               SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
                                                     Title: Presidential Library Facilities.               cover potential changes in the value of               I. Stabilization Fund Background
                                                     OMB number: 3095–0036.                                its claims on the failed corporate credit             II. Legal Matters
                                                     Agency form number: None.                             union asset management estates. In                    III. Closing the Stabilization Fund
                                                     Type of review: Regular.                              addition, the Share Insurance Fund                    IV. The Normal Operating Level
                                                     Affected public: Presidential library                 needs to have enough equity to cover                  V. Request for Comment
                                                  foundations or other entities proposing                  other risks to the equity ratio, such as              I. Stabilization Fund Background
                                                  to transfer a Presidential library facility              losses on insured credit unions, under
                                                  to NARA.                                                 the same macroeconomic conditions                        Public Law 111–22, Helping Families
                                                     Estimated number of respondents: 1.                   that create volatility in the asset                   Save Their Homes Act of 2009 (Helping
                                                     Estimated time per response: 40                       management estate values. To ensure                   Families Act), signed into law by the
                                                  hours.                                                   the Share Insurance Fund has sufficient               President on May 20, 2009 created the
                                                     Frequency of response: On occasion.                   equity to absorb these risks, the Board               Temporary Corporate Credit Union
                                                     Estimated total annual burden hours:                  proposes to raise the normal operating                Stabilization Fund. Congress provided
                                                  40 hours.                                                level to 1.39 percent.                                NCUA with this temporary fund to
                                                     Abstract: The information collection                     This notice provides a discussion of               accrue the losses of the corporate credit
                                                  is required for NARA to meet its                         the reasons the Board is proposing to                 union system and assess insured credit
                                                  obligations under 44 U.S.C. 2112(a)(3) to                close the Stabilization Fund in 2017 and              unions for such losses over time. This
                                                  submit a report to Congress before                       the basis used to determine the normal                prevented insured credit unions from
                                                  accepting a new Presidential library                     operating level necessary to account for              bearing a significant burden for losses
                                                  facility. The report contains information                the additional risk to the Share                      associated with the failure of five
                                                  that can be furnished only by the                        Insurance Fund. In addition, the notice               corporate credit unions within a short
                                                  foundation or other entity responsible                   sets forth a new policy by which the                  period. Without creation of the
                                                  for building the facility and establishing               Board would set the normal operating                  Stabilization Fund, these corporate
                                                  the library endowment.                                   level. The Board solicits comments on                 credit union losses would have been
                                                                                                           each of these proposed actions.                       borne by the Share Insurance Fund. The
                                                  Swarnali Haldar,                                                                                               magnitude of losses would have
                                                                                                           DATES: Comments must be received on
                                                  Executive for Information Services/CIO.                                                                        exhausted the Share Insurance Fund’s
                                                                                                           or before September 5, 2017 to be
                                                  [FR Doc. 2017–15792 Filed 7–26–17; 8:45 am]                                                                    retained earnings and significantly
                                                                                                           assured of consideration.
                                                  BILLING CODE 7515–01–P                                                                                         impaired credit unions’ one percent
                                                                                                           ADDRESSES: You may submit comments                    contributed capital deposit.1 The
                                                                                                           by any of the following methods (Please               deposit impairment, along with
                                                                                                           send comments by one method only):                    premiums that would have been
                                                  NATIONAL CREDIT UNION                                       • NCUA Web site: https://
                                                  ADMINISTRATION                                                                                                 necessary to restore the Share Insurance
                                                                                                           www.ncua.gov/about/pages/board-                       Fund’s equity ratio, would have resulted
                                                  Closing the Temporary Corporate                          comments.aspx                                         in a significant, immediate cost to credit
                                                  Credit Union Stabilization Fund and                         • Email: Address to boardcomments@                 unions at a time when their earnings
                                                  Setting the Share Insurance Fund                         ncua.gov. Include ‘‘[Your name]—                      and capital were already under stress
                                                  Normal Operating Level                                   Comments on Stabilization Fund                        due to the Great Recession.2 In June
                                                                                                           Closure’’ in the email subject line.                  2009, the Board formally approved use
                                                  AGENCY: National Credit Union                               • Fax: (703) 518–6319. Use the                     of the Stabilization Fund for accounting
                                                  Administration (NCUA).                                   subject line described above for email.               for the costs of the Corporate System
                                                  ACTION: Notice and request for comment.                     • Mail: Address to Gerald Poliquin,                Resolution Program.3 Since then, all of
                                                                                                           Secretary of the Board, National Credit               these costs have been accounted for in
                                                  SUMMARY:   The NCUA Board (Board) is                     Union Administration, 1775 Duke                       the financial statements of the
                                                  considering closing the Temporary                        Street, Alexandria, VA 22314–3428.                    Stabilization Fund.
                                                  Corporate Credit Union Stabilization                        • Hand Delivery/Courier: Same as                      The Act specifies that the
                                                  Fund (Stabilization Fund) in 2017, prior                 mail address.                                         Stabilization Fund will terminate 90
                                                  to its scheduled closing date in June                       Public Inspection: You can view all                days after the seven-year anniversary of
                                                  2021. Closing the Stabilization Fund                     public comments on NCUA’s Web site                    its first borrowing from the U.S.
                                                  and distributing all assets, property, and               at https://www.ncua.gov/about/pages/                  Treasury.4 The first borrowing occurred
                                                  funds to the National Credit Union                       board-comments.aspx as submitted,
                                                  Share Insurance Fund (Share Insurance                    except for those we cannot post for                     1 Prior to reassignment of these costs to the
                                                  Fund) will increase the Share Insurance                  technical reasons. NCUA will not edit or              Stabilization Fund, the capitalization deposit
                                                  Fund’s equity ratio and allow for the                    remove any identifying or contact                     impairment would have been 89 basis points.
                                                                                                                                                                   2 Because the contributed capital deposit is
                                                  return to insured credit unions of any                   information from the public comments
                                                                                                                                                                 reflected as an asset on the financial statements of
                                                  equity above the normal operating level.                 submitted. You may inspect paper
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                                                                                                                                                                 insured credit unions, under accounting rules any
                                                  The return of excess equity would be                     copies of comments in NCUA’s                          impairment results in an immediate expense to
                                                  accomplished through a distribution                      headquarters at 1775 Duke Street,                     credit unions.
                                                  from the Share Insurance Fund in                         Alexandria, VA 22314, by appointment                    3 For more details on the corporate system

                                                  conformance with the Federal Credit                      weekdays between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. To                 resolution program, please see the NCUA Corporate
                                                                                                                                                                 System Resolution Costs Web page (https://
                                                  Union Act (the Act). However, given the                  make an appointment, call (703) 518–                  www.ncua.gov/regulation-supervision/Pages/
                                                  nature of certain assets and liabilities of              6360 or send an email to EIMail@                      corporate-system-resolution.aspx).
                                                  the Stabilization Fund, the Share                        ncua.gov.                                               4 12 U.S.C. 1790e(h).




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                                                                                 Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 143 / Thursday, July 27, 2017 / Notices                                                         34983

                                                  on June 25, 2009, making the original                       In 2010, when NCUA announced the                        unions.7 The Board is simultaneously
                                                  closing date September 27, 2016.                         Corporate System Resolution Program,                       publishing a separate proposal to update
                                                  However, the Act provided the Board,                     the outstanding principal balance of the                   § 741.4 of NCUA’s Rules and
                                                  with the concurrence of the Secretary of                 Legacy Assets totaled over $40 billion—                    Regulations regarding the method for
                                                  the U.S. Treasury, authority to extend                   about four times the size of the Share                     Share Insurance Fund distributions to
                                                  the closing date of the Stabilization                    Insurance Fund. The initial outstanding                    insured credit unions.
                                                  Fund. In June 2010, the Board voted to                   balance of guaranteed notes backed by                      II. Legal Matters
                                                  extend the life of the Stabilization Fund                the Legacy Assets and sold to investors
                                                  and on September 24, 2010, NCUA                          through the NGN program in 2010 and                           The Act sets forth the purpose,
                                                  received concurrence from the Secretary                  2011 totaled approximately $28                             permissible expenditures, borrowing
                                                  of the U.S. Treasury to extend the                       billion—almost three times the size of                     and repayment authorities, assessment
                                                  closing date to June 30, 2021.                           the Share Insurance Fund at that time.                     authority, investment authority, and
                                                     In March 2009, the Board conserved                    As of March 2017, the outstanding                          procedures for closing the Stabilization
                                                  U.S. Central Federal Credit Union and                    principal balance of the Legacy Assets                     Fund.8 The statute specifically
                                                  Western Corporate Credit Union. In                       and the outstanding balance of the                         prescribes the conditions for closing the
                                                  September 2010, the Board conserved                      guaranteed notes back by them have                         Stabilization Fund and distributing its
                                                  three additional corporate credit unions                 declined to $12.7 billion and $7.5                         holdings.9 The Board has the authority
                                                  and publicly announced the Corporate                     billion, respectively. Both of these                       under the Act to close the Stabilization
                                                  System Resolution Program. The Board                     balances are less than the current size of                 Fund at its discretion at any time when
                                                  placed the five corporate credit unions                  the Share Insurance Fund, which is                         it has no deficit, which then requires
                                                  into liquidation in the fourth quarter of                $13.2 billion in total assets as of March                  that all of its assets and funds be
                                                  2010. The Board, as Liquidating Agent,                   31, 2017.                                                  distributed to the Share Insurance
                                                  administers the assets and liabilities of                   The projected range of lifetime Legacy                  Fund.10 The Stabilization Fund’s
                                                  the five failed corporate credit unions in               Asset defaults was $13.2 billion to $16.4                  financial statements have reflected a
                                                  separate legal entities, referred to as                  billion as of December 2011. As of                         positive net position since June 30,
                                                  asset management estates.                                March 2017, the projected range of                         2014. Therefore, there are currently no
                                                     The Corporate System Resolution                       lifetime Legacy Asset defaults has                         statutory barriers for the Board in
                                                  Program included providing short-term                    declined to $9.9 billion to $10.3 billion.                 regards to closing the Stabilization Fund
                                                  and long-term funding to resolve a                       In addition, NCUA’s pursuit of legal                       in 2017. Once the Stabilization Fund is
                                                  portfolio of residential mortgage-backed                 recoveries in its capacity as Liquidating                  closed, there is no statutory authority
                                                  securities, commercial mortgage-backed                   Agent against various third parties in                     that permits NCUA to re-open it for any
                                                  securities, other asset-backed securities,               connection with the Legacy Assets has                      reason.
                                                  and corporate bonds (collectively                        resulted in net recoveries of                                 The Board is aware of industry
                                                  referred to as the Legacy Assets) held by                approximately $3.8 billion after fees and                  opinions that the Act may permit a
                                                  the liquidated corporate credit unions.                  expenses.5 Improved projected                              distribution to insured credit unions
                                                  Under the Corporate System Resolution                    performance of the Legacy Assets and                       directly from the Stabilization Fund.
                                                  Program, NCUA created a re-                              legal recoveries are the primary reasons                   The Board does not believe this is
                                                  securitization program where NCUA                        the Stabilization Fund’s net position has                  permissible for the following reasons.
                                                  issued a series of NCUA Guaranteed                       increased from negative $7.5 billion as                       NCUA’s authority to use Stabilization
                                                  Notes (NGNs). The sale of NGNs to                        of December 2010 to a positive $1.6                        Fund money arises from the reference to
                                                  investors has provided long-term                         billion as of March 2017.                                  12 U.S.C. 1783(a) in the legislation that
                                                  funding for the Legacy Assets. The                                                                                  created the Stabilization Fund.11
                                                  NGNs are guaranteed by NCUA in its                          It is now possible for the remaining
                                                                                                                                                                      Specifically, the legislation provides
                                                  Agency capacity, backed by the full                      obligations of the Corporate System
                                                                                                                                                                      that ‘‘[m]oney in the Stabilization Fund
                                                  faith and credit of the United States.                   Resolution Program to be borne by the
                                                                                                                                                                      shall be available upon requisition by
                                                  While the accounting for obligations                     Share Insurance Fund without
                                                                                                                                                                      the Board . . . for making payments for
                                                  associated with the NGNs occurs                          inordinate risk, provided additional
                                                                                                                                                                      the purposes described in § 1783(a) of
                                                  through the Stabilization Fund, the                      equity is maintained while the exposure
                                                                                                                                                                      this title.’’ 12 Except with respect to
                                                  guaranty is not specific to the                          to remaining resolution program
                                                                                                                                                                      administrative payments, the legislation
                                                  Stabilization Fund. All NCUA agency                      obligations exist. As a result, the Board
                                                                                                                                                                      limits this authority to the context of a
                                                  funds for which payments on the NGN                      believes the purpose of the Stabilization
                                                                                                                                                                      ‘‘conservatorship, liquidation, or
                                                  guarantees is a permitted use, including                 Fund has been fulfilled.6 Therefore, the
                                                                                                                                                                      threatened conservatorship or
                                                  the Share Insurance Fund, are potential                  Board proposes to close the
                                                                                                                                                                      liquidation, of a corporate credit
                                                  sources for guaranty obligations prior to                Stabilization Fund in 2017. Closing the
                                                                                                                                                                      union.’’ 13 Under section 1783(a),
                                                  any recourse to the U.S. Treasury.                       Stabilization Fund at this time would
                                                     During its life, the Stabilization Fund               increase the equity ratio of the Share                       7 The potential return of excess equity would be

                                                  provides the primary funding necessary                   Insurance Fund and require NCUA to                         in the form of a distribution to insured credit
                                                  for NCUA’s guarantees on the NGNs and                    distribute any resulting equity above the                  unions from the Share Insurance Fund as provided
                                                  to complete the resolution of the                        normal operating level to insured credit                   for in the Act. Stakeholders should not confuse this
                                                                                                                                                                      with potential recoveries on depleted member
                                                  corporate credit union asset                                                                                        capital. Until senior obligations of each particular
                                                                                                             5 NCUA does not include potential future legal
                                                  management estates. The majority of                                                                                 estate can be satisfied, there will not be
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                                                                                                           recoveries in loss projections, as they are inherently     distributions for any recoveries on depleted
                                                  this funding has been from two primary                   inestimable. For a list of legal recoveries to date, see   member capital.
                                                  sources: Borrowings of $5.1 billion                      NCUA’s Legal Recoveries Web site (https://                   8 12 U.S.C. 1790e.
                                                  (peak outstanding balance) on NCUA’s                     www.ncua.gov/regulation-supervision/Pages/                   9 12 U.S.C. 1790e(h).
                                                  $6 billion line of credit with the U.S.                  corporate-system-resolution/legal-recoveries.aspx).
                                                                                                                                                                        10 12 U.S.C. 1790e(g), (h).
                                                                                                             6 Worthy of note, if the Stabilization Fund is
                                                  Treasury and $4.8 billion in                             closed in 2017, it would have been in operation
                                                                                                                                                                        11 12 U.S.C. 1790e(b).

                                                  Stabilization Fund assessments paid by                   about one year longer than the original seven years          12 12 U.S.C. 1790e(b)(1).

                                                  insured credit unions.                                   provided for in the Act.                                     13 Id.




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                                                  34984                                          Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 143 / Thursday, July 27, 2017 / Notices

                                                  permissible uses include payments of                                                 contrary, the Stabilization Fund                                                      Stabilization Fund will be distributed to
                                                  insurance under section 1787 of the                                                  legislation references section 1782(c)(3)                                             the Share Insurance Fund at September
                                                  title, for providing assistance and                                                  only with respect to distributions                                                    30, 2017 values. This transfer will
                                                  making expenditures under section                                                    flowing into the Stabilization Fund, in                                               increase the net position of the Share
                                                  1788 of the title in connection with the                                             any circumstances where U.S. Treasury                                                 Insurance Fund, resulting in an increase
                                                  liquidation or threatened liquidation of                                             borrowings remain outstanding.15                                                      to the equity ratio. As required by
                                                  insured credit unions, and for such                                                     In the only other circumstance where                                               applicable accounting standards, certain
                                                  administrative and other expenses                                                    the legislation references a distribution                                             budgetary accounts will also transfer
                                                  incurred in carrying out the purposes of                                             in any manner, it is in reference to the                                              and be shown in the Statement of
                                                  the subchapter as the Board may                                                      Stabilization Fund’s closing.16 In that                                               Budgetary Resources. NCUA determined
                                                  determine to be proper.                                                              circumstance, the Act limits a                                                        the applicable accounting standards in
                                                     Here, a distribution, such as an                                                  distribution of all ‘‘funds, property or                                              consultation with an independent
                                                  assessment rebate, does not plainly meet                                             other assets remaining in the                                                         accounting firm.
                                                  any of those criteria, assuming an                                                   Stabilization Fund’’ to one recipient:                                                   The post-closure financial statements
                                                  appropriate nexus to a corporate credit                                              The Share Insurance Fund.17 For these                                                 and note disclosures for the Share
                                                  union conservatorship or liquidation                                                 reasons, the Board believes the                                                       Insurance Fund will continue to provide
                                                  could be established in each instance.                                               Stabilization Fund must be closed                                                     the same level of detail about the
                                                  First, a distribution to insured credit                                              before a distribution of excess funds to                                              receivables from the corporate asset
                                                  unions from the Stabilization Fund, by                                               insured credit unions can occur for                                                   management estates and the related
                                                  its namesake alone, would not be a                                                   purposes other than those described in                                                fiduciary activities. That is, the detailed
                                                  payment of insurance under section                                                   section 1783(a).                                                                      note disclosures in the Stabilization
                                                  1787. Further, a distribution could not                                              III. Closing the Stabilization Fund                                                   Fund’s financial statements will now be
                                                  be in the form of assistance under                                                                                                                                         in the note disclosures of the Share
                                                  section 1788, since it would not go to                                               A. Accounting and Financial Reporting                                                 Insurance Fund’s financial statements.
                                                  credit unions for the assistance                                                        The financial statements of the                                                    NCUA does not envision any changes to
                                                  purposes described in section 1788.                                                  Stabilization Fund and the Share                                                      the accounting for the asset management
                                                  Finally, a distribution is not an                                                    Insurance Fund are presented under                                                    estates. The accounting for each asset
                                                  ‘‘administrative expense’’ or ‘‘other                                                standards promulgated by the Federal                                                  management estate has and will remain
                                                  expense’’ in the context of the Act.                                                 Accounting Standards Advisory Board                                                   distinct, which is a requisite in fulfilling
                                                     While the general definition of an                                                (FASAB). These financial statements are                                               the Board’s responsibility as Liquidating
                                                  expense can be quite broad,14 section                                                presented and audited by calendar year.                                               Agent.
                                                  1782(c)(3) of the Act expressly governs                                              With the closing of the Stabilization                                                    For illustrative purposes, Table 1
                                                  distributions to insured credit unions.                                              Fund, NCUA intends to prepare final                                                   depicts the March 31, 2017 Share
                                                  Distributions under section 1782(c)(3)                                               financial statements for the Stabilization                                            Insurance Fund balance sheet
                                                  are not included as an authority that                                                Fund as of September 30, 2017. These                                                  (unaudited), the March 31, 2017
                                                  Congress granted for the Stabilization                                               financial statements would be audited                                                 Stabilization Fund balance sheet
                                                  Fund, particularly since Congress                                                    by NCUA’s Office of the Inspector                                                     (unaudited), and the pro-forma Share
                                                  expressly tied Stabilization Fund                                                    General.                                                                              Insurance Fund balance sheet
                                                  authority to section 1783(a), to the                                                    Per applicable accounting standards,                                               (unaudited) as if the Stabilization Fund
                                                  exclusion of any other section. On the                                               the assets and liabilities of the                                                     were closed on that day.18
                                                         TABLE 1—SHARE INSURANCE FUND AND STABILIZATION FUND BALANCE SHEETS, PRE- AND POST-CLOSURE, AS OF
                                                                                                 MARCH 31, 2017
                                                                                                                                                               [Dollars in millions]

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Share                                                Share
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Stabilization
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      insurance                                            insurance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   fund
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         fund                                                 fund
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               (pre-closure)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    (pre-closure)                                        (post-closure)

                                                                                                                                                                          Assets

                                                  Fund Balance with Treasury & Investments .................................................................................................................                               $12,766.2                       $700.4                $13,466.6
                                                  Notes Receivable, Net ..................................................................................................................................................                            8.7     ........................                 8.7
                                                  Capitalization Deposits Receivable ...............................................................................................................................                              316.5       ........................               316.5
                                                  Receivable from Asset Management Estates, Net (NPCU) .........................................................................................                                                    51.3      ........................                51.3
                                                  Receivable from Asset Management Estates, Net (CCU) ...........................................................................................                                  ........................                  876.3                   876.3
                                                  Accrued Interest and Other Assets ...............................................................................................................................                                 61.2                         2.7                  63.9

                                                        Total Assets ...........................................................................................................................................................             13,203.9                     1,579.4                  14,783.3

                                                                                                                                                          Liabilities and Net Position

                                                  Accounts Payable and Other Liabilities ........................................................................................................................                                   26.0                         1.1                      27.1
                                                  Borrowings from U.S. Treasury ....................................................................................................................................               ........................   ........................   ........................
                                                  Insurance and Guarantee Program Liabilities ..............................................................................................................                                      245.6       ........................                  245.6
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                                                  Net Position—Contributed Capital Deposits .................................................................................................................                                10,285.8         ........................             10,258.8

                                                    14 Black’s Law Dictionary characterizes an                                           17 Id. Within 90 days following the seventh                                           18 The impact on the post-closure Share Insurance

                                                  expense as ‘‘[a]n expenditure of money, time, labor                                  anniversary of the initial Stabilization Fund                                         Fund financial statements will be based on actual
                                                  or resources to accomplish a result.’’ Black’s Law                                   advance, or earlier at the Board’s discretion, the                                    results at the time the Stabilization Fund is closed
                                                  Dictionary 617 (8th ed. 2004).                                                       Board shall distribute any funds, property, or other                                  and the presentation may vary somewhat due to the
                                                    15 12 U.S.C. 1790e(e).
                                                                                                                                       assets remaining in the Stabilization Fund to the                                     specific application of accounting standards on
                                                    16 12 U.S.C. 1790e(h).                                                             Insurance Fund and shall close the Stabilization                                      individual line items.
                                                                                                                                       Fund.


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                                                                                              Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 143 / Thursday, July 27, 2017 / Notices                                                                                               34985

                                                        TABLE 1—SHARE INSURANCE FUND AND STABILIZATION FUND BALANCE SHEETS, PRE- AND POST-CLOSURE, AS OF
                                                                                          MARCH 31, 2017—Continued
                                                                                                                                                            [Dollars in millions]

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Share                             Share
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Stabilization
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                insurance                         insurance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  fund
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   fund                              fund
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              (pre-closure)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              (pre-closure)                     (post-closure)

                                                  Net Position—Cumulative Results of Operations .........................................................................................................                           2,646.5         1,578.3            4,224.8

                                                       Total Liabilities and Net Position ...........................................................................................................................              13,203.9         1,579.4          14,783.3

                                                             Total Net Position ...........................................................................................................................................        12,932.3         1,578.3          14,510.6



                                                    Subsequent to March 31, 2017, and                                               expected to be recognized that will                                                 these additional items and the effect on
                                                  prior to the end of the year, there are                                           ultimately affect the net position of the                                           the projected net position as of
                                                  several items that have been or are                                               Share Insurance Fund. Table 2 includes                                              December 31, 2017.

                                                                            TABLE 2—BREAKDOWN OF PROJECTED NET POSITION COMPONENTS BY DECEMBER 31, 2017
                                                                                                                                                         [Dollars in thousands]

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Amount
                                                                                                                                                 Component
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              (in millions)

                                                  March 31, 2017 Pro-Forma Net Position (Post-Closure)—From Table 1 Above ...........................................................................                                                                $14,511
                                                      Plus: Legal Recoveries that Increase the Value of the Receivable from the AMEs ...............................................................                                                                     310
                                                      Plus: Estimated Recovery on U.S. Central Capital Note 19 .....................................................................................................                                             20 500–800
                                                      Plus: Share Insurance Fund Net Income 2017q2–2017q4 21 ..................................................................................................                                                          (26)
                                                      Plus: Adjustment to 1% Contributed Capital Deposit 22 ...........................................................................................................                                                  383
                                                  Equals: Adjusted Net Position (Post-Closure), as of 12/31/17 .......................................................................................................                                        15,678–15,978



                                                  B. Effect on Share Insurance Fund                                                 contingent liabilities for which no                                                   The closure of the Stabilization Fund
                                                  Equity Ratio and Distributions                                                    provision has been made) to the                                                     would increase the Share Insurance
                                                                                                                                    aggregate amount of insured shares in                                               Fund’s net position. This would result
                                                     TheShare Insurance Fund equity ratio                                           all insured credit unions.23 It serves as                                           in an increase to the Share Insurance
                                                  is defined in the Act as the ratio of the                                         a measure of the Share Insurance Fund’s                                             Fund’s equity ratio. Table 3 shows the
                                                  amount of Fund capitalization,                                                    overall strength and ability to absorb                                              estimated equity ratio of the Share
                                                  including insured credit unions’ 1                                                losses. In general, the Act requires the                                            Insurance Fund as of December 31, 2017
                                                  percent capitalization deposits and the                                           Board to manage the Share Insurance                                                 as if the Stabilization Fund were closed.
                                                  retained earnings balance of the Fund                                             Fund’s equity ratio within a range of
                                                  (net of direct liabilities of the fund and                                        1.20 percent to 1.50 percent.

                                                                              TABLE 3—PROJECTED SHARE INSURANCE FUND EQUITY RATIO AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2017
                                                                                                                                                         [Dollars in thousands]

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Amount
                                                                                                                                                 Component                                                                                                    (in millions)

                                                  Adjusted Net Position Post Closure—From Table 2 Above ...........................................................................................................                                      $15,678–$15,978
                                                    Less: Gain(Loss) on Investments 24 ............................................................................................................................................                                ($66)
                                                  Equals: Equity Ratio Numerator ......................................................................................................................................................                  $15,744–$16,044
                                                  Equity Ratio Denominator: Projected Insured Shares as of December 31, 2017 25 ......................................................................                                                         $1,089,500
                                                  Projected Calendar Yearend 2017 Equity Ratio 26 .........................................................................................................................                                 1.45%–1.47%



                                                    The Share Insurance Fund’s calendar                                             NCUA must make a distribution to                                                    distribution to insured credit unions
                                                  yearend equity ratio is part of the                                               insured credit unions.27 The Act states                                             after each calendar year if, as of the end
                                                  statutory basis to determine whether                                              ‘‘the Board shall effect a pro rata                                                 of that calendar year—

                                                    19 The estimated recovery includes U.S. Central’s                                  22 Based on share growth of 3.71 percent in the                                    26 This does not account for extraordinary losses

                                                  portion of the recent legal recoveries.                                           first quarter 2017 and the historical share of                                      and/or failures in credit unions, abnormally high
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                                                    20 This estimated range only reflects what is                                   adjusted contributed capital deposit adjustments                                    insured-share growth, or a significant downturn in
                                                  projected to be recognizable by December 31, 2017                                 collected in October each year.                                                     economic conditions, including declining interest
                                                  under applicable accounting rules, which mainly                                      23 12 U.S.C. 1782(h)(2).
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        rates.
                                                  includes the portion of the U.S. Central capital note                                24 Actual gain(loss) on investments as of March
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          27 The equity ratio is also part of the statutory
                                                  for which there is cash available for repayment.                                  31, 2017 and could be materially different as of
                                                    21 Assuming current yield on investments,                                       December 31, 2017.                                                                  basis for determining whether a premium or Share
                                                  insurance losses equal to the five-year average, and                                 25 Based on 5.8 percent annual insured share                                     Insurance Fund restoration plan is necessary.
                                                  operating expenses based on the currently approved                                growth, which is the three-year average insured
                                                  NCUA budget.                                                                      share growth for the industry.



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                                                  34986                           Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 143 / Thursday, July 27, 2017 / Notices

                                                    • Any loans to the Fund from the                         be built up during periods of economic                  scenario, the U.S. economy experiences
                                                  Federal Government, and any interest                       prosperity and allowed to decline                       a moderate recession, and asset prices
                                                  on those loans, have been repaid;                          during periods of economic adversity. A                 decline. This scenario is characterized
                                                    • The Fund’s equity ratio exceeds the                    counter-cyclical posture allows NCUA                    by weakening economic activity,
                                                  normal operating level; and                                to maintain the Share Insurance Fund at                 including higher unemployment, falling
                                                    • The Fund’s available assets ratio                      a level that is sufficient for it to remain             short-term interest rates, long-term
                                                  exceeds 1.0 percent.’’ 28                                  viable even during economic stress                      interest rates that slowly rise, a steadily
                                                    As of October 24, 2016, all NCUA                         conditions without having to charge a                   rising unemployment rate, and
                                                  borrowings from the Federal                                premium when credit unions can least                    sustained declines in housing prices.
                                                  Government had been repaid. The Share                      afford it.                                              The Severely Adverse scenario is
                                                  Insurance Fund’s available asset ratio is                     With the proposed closing of the                     characterized by a severe global
                                                  1.21 percent as of March 31, 2017, well                    Stabilization Fund, the Board                           recession that is accompanied by a
                                                  above the 1.0 percent minimum and is                       considered whether the current normal                   period of heightened stress in corporate
                                                  projected to remain above 1.0 percent.29                   operating level of 1.30 percent would be                loan markets and commercial real estate
                                                    To the extent the equity ratio exceeds                   sufficient to cover all of the Share                    markets. In this scenario, the
                                                  the normal operating level as of                           Insurance Fund’s resulting exposures.                   unemployment rate spikes, short-term
                                                  calendar yearend 2017, a distribution                      To determine this, NCUA modeled the                     interest rates fall to near zero, long-term
                                                  would be paid to insured credit unions                     losses that would be expected under a                   interest rates fall initially then increase
                                                  in accordance with the Act and § 741.4                     moderate and a severe recession.31 For                  slightly, and housing prices decline
                                                  of NCUA regulations. The distribution                      the two recession scenarios, the agency                 substantially. Further details on how
                                                  in total would equal the dollar amount                     modeled the:                                            these scenarios were applied to model
                                                  of equity in excess of the normal                             • Impact on the equity ratio of the                  the value of the claims on the corporate
                                                  operating level. For additional                            estimated decline in the value of the                   asset management estates and the
                                                  information on how the pro rata                            Share Insurance Fund’s claims on the                    performance of the Share Insurance
                                                  distribution would be made, see the July                   liquidated corporate credit unions’ asset               Fund are provided below.
                                                  2017 Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on                      management estates—which would be
                                                  this subject.                                                                                                      A. Determining Equity Needed To Cover
                                                                                                             driven by a reduction in the value of the
                                                                                                                                                                     Potential Declines in the Value of
                                                  IV. The Normal Operating Level                             Legacy Assets.
                                                                                                                • Performance of the Share Insurance                 Claims on the Corporate Credit Union
                                                    Per the Act, the normal operating                                                                                Asset Management Estates
                                                  level is an equity ratio set by the Board                  Fund based on the three primary factors
                                                  and may not be less than 1.20 percent                      that currently affect the Share Insurance                  At NCUA’s request, BlackRock
                                                  and not more than 1.50 percent.30 As                       Fund’s equity ratio: Insured share                      incorporated the Adverse and Severely
                                                  noted above, if the calendar yearend                       growth, yield on investments, and                       Adverse macroeconomic scenarios into
                                                  equity ratio exceeds the normal                            insurance losses.                                       its proprietary models to project cash
                                                  operating level, NCUA is required to                          The Share Insurance Fund was                         flows for all of the Legacy Assets.34 In
                                                  make a pro rata distribution to insured                    modeled over a five-year period and the                 both the Adverse and Severely Adverse
                                                  credit unions. The Board has                               Legacy Assets were modeled over their                   macroeconomic scenarios, the value of
                                                  historically set the normal operating                      remaining life.32 NCUA used the                         the Legacy Assets declines.
                                                  level as the target equity ratio for the                   applicable variables describing                            Credit spreads indicative of Adverse
                                                  Share Insurance Fund.                                      economic developments for the Adverse                   and Severely Adverse market conditions
                                                    The current normal operating level is                    and Severely Adverse economic                           are applied to the forward interest rate
                                                  1.30 percent, set by the Board in 2007                     scenarios from the Federal Reserve                      curve to arrive at a discount rate to
                                                  based on the Board-approved                                Board’s 2017 annual stress test                         calculate the present value of the Legacy
                                                  methodology in place at that time.                         supervisory scenarios.33 In the Adverse                 Asset cash flows, as shown in Table 4.
                                                  When establishing the 1.30 percent                            31 In estimating the equity ratio under various
                                                                                                                                                                     For the Adverse scenario, credit spreads
                                                  normal operating level in 2007, the                        economic stress scenarios, NCUA must make
                                                                                                                                                                     similar to the period of the U.S. credit
                                                  Board affirmed that the Share Insurance                    estimates and assumptions that affect the model         rating downgrade in August 2011 were
                                                  Fund would maintain a counter-cyclical                     output. Actual results could differ from NCUA’s         used. For the Severely Adverse scenario,
                                                  posture. In practice, this means the                       estimates; however, the agency evaluates the            credit spreads similar to the peak of the
                                                                                                             reasonableness of such estimates when analyzing
                                                  Share Insurance Fund’s equity should                       the model output. The base scenario for modeling
                                                                                                                                                                     Great Recession in 2009 were used.
                                                                                                             the performance of the Share Insurance Fund is a
                                                     28 12 U.S.C. 1782(c)(3). This section is also subject   moderate economic expansion through the                 Rules and the Capital Plan Rule, February 10, 2017
                                                  to 12 U.S.C. 1790e(e).                                     projection period with Treasury rates assumed to        (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/
                                                     29 After closure, NCUA estimates the Share              rise steadily across the maturity spectrum, the         pressreleases/files/bcreg20170203a5.pdf).
                                                  Insurance Fund would hold $4 billion in surplus            unemployment rate remains low and housing prices           34 The NGNs remaining after yearend 2017 do not
                                                  funds over the 1.0 percent minimum ratio. NCUA             rise slightly.                                          mature until 2020 and 2021. Because these NGNs
                                                  currently projects $2.8 billion in guaranty payments          32 A five-year horizon (beginning at yearend 2017)
                                                                                                                                                                     do not have a call feature (other than a clean-up call
                                                  on the NGNs after 2017. However, the current               was used to cover the cycle of an economic              provision when the Legacy Asset balances are 10
                                                  estimate for the funding needs net of related cash         downturn and the life of the NGN program.               percent or less or their balances when transferred
                                                  flows is approximately $1 billion.                            33 Supervisory Scenarios for Annual Stress Test      to the NGNs, which NCUA does not expect to be
                                                     30 12 U.S.C. 1782(h)(4).                                Required under the Dodd-Frank Act Stress Testing        triggered), they cannot be retired early.
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                                                                                                 Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 143 / Thursday, July 27, 2017 / Notices                                                                                             34987

                                                                                                                          TABLE 4—DISCOUNTED LEGACY ASSET CASH FLOWS
                                                                                                                                                                  [Dollars in billions]

                                                                                                                                                                                           Scenario                                           Differences from base

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Severely                                       Severely
                                                                                                                                                                      Base                    Adverse                                         Adverse
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   adverse                                        adverse

                                                  Total .....................................................................................                         $10.3                     $8.3                    $7.3                   ($2.0)              ($3.0)



                                                     The projected Legacy Asset cash flows                                              paid to NCUA, guaranty payments made                                       payments have been made. The present
                                                  are aggregated by NGN and run through                                                 by NCUA to NGN investors for principal                                     value of the NGN cash flows is
                                                  the applicable NGN waterfall to                                                       and interest shortfalls, guaranty                                          determined by the same discounting
                                                  determine their related projected cash                                                reimbursements made to NCUA for any                                        approach discussed above.
                                                  flows. As shown in Table 5, the NGN-                                                  guaranty payments made, and any
                                                  related cash flows include guaranty fees                                              residual cash flows left after all of these

                                                                                                                                    TABLE 5—DISCOUNTED NGN CASH FLOWS
                                                                                                                                                                  [Dollars in billions]

                                                                                                                                                                                           Scenario                                           Differences from base
                                                                                            Cash flow                                                                                                              Severely                                       Severely
                                                                                                                                                                      Base                    Adverse                                         Adverse
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   adverse                                        adverse

                                                  Guaranty Fees .....................................................................                                           $0.1                   $0.1                    $0.1                     $0.0                $0.0
                                                  Guaranty Payments .............................................................                                               (3.2)                  (4.0)                   (4.4)                    (0.8)               (1.2)
                                                  Guaranty Reimbursements ..................................................                                                      3.0                    3.3                     3.5                      0.3                 0.5
                                                  Residuals .............................................................................                                         3.5                    2.1                     1.3                    (1.4)               (2.2)

                                                         Total ..............................................................................                                    3.4                    1.5                     0.5                     (1.9)               (2.9)



                                                     NCUA then applied the un-                                                          recovery on the U.S. Central capital                                       respectively, the net impact on the value
                                                  securitized projected Legacy Asset cash                                               note.36 For each asset management                                          of NCUA’s claims—and ultimately the
                                                  flows and NGN cash flows to the                                                       estate, the impact of the stress scenarios                                 equity ratio—is different, primarily due
                                                  applicable asset management estates                                                   will differ depending on the specific                                      to how these funds flow through the
                                                  based on the payout priorities in NCUA                                                circumstances of the estate. While the                                     payout priorities applicable to each
                                                  regulations.35 This results in an estimate                                            decreases in Legacy Asset and NGN                                          asset management estate. This is shown
                                                  of the change in the net receivable from                                              cash flows under the Adverse and                                           in Table 6.
                                                  asset management estates due to NCUA,                                                 Severely Adverse scenarios are
                                                  as well as changes in NCUA’s projected                                                approximately $2 billion and $3 billion,
                                                                                      TABLE 6—NET RECEIVABLE TO NCUA PLUS U.S. CENTRAL CAPITAL NOTE RECOVERY
                                                                                                                                                                  [Dollars in billions]

                                                                                                                                                                                                       Scenario                                   Differences from base
                                                                                                          Estate                                                                                                           Severely                                Severely
                                                                                                                                                                                    Base               Adverse                                   Adverse
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           adverse                                 adverse

                                                  U.S. Central 37 .......................................................................................................                  $0.9                $0.9                    $0.5               $0.0          ($0.4)
                                                  WesCorp ...............................................................................................................                   0.9                 0.5                     0.3               (0.4)          (0.6)
                                                  Members ...............................................................................................................                   0.2                 0.2                     0.1                 0.0          (0.1)
                                                  Southwest ..............................................................................................................                  0.0                 0.0                     0.0                 0.0            0.0
                                                  Constitution ...........................................................................................................                  0.0                 0.0                     0.0                 0.0            0.0

                                                        Total ...............................................................................................................                 2.0                 1.6                   0.9               (0.4)             (1.1)



                                                    Under the Adverse scenario, NCUA                                                    million, which would equate to a 4-                                        decline in value is approximately $1.1
                                                  projects a decline in value of its                                                    basis point reduction in the Share                                         billion or 11 basis points.38
                                                  receivables from asset management                                                     Insurance Fund’s equity ratio. Under the
                                                  estates, net of approximately $400                                                    Severely Adverse scenario, the potential
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                                                     35 Payout priorities are outlined in 12 CFR 709.5.                                 expected to be recognized for the U.S. Central                             corporates. Depleted capital recoveries would
                                                     36 Formore information on the U.S. Central                                         capital note. While NCUA believes the full $1                              decrease by approximately $1.5 billion and $1.7
                                                  capital note, see NCUA’s costs and assessments                                        billion capital note will be collected, $0.8 billion                       billion under the Adverse and Severely Adverse
                                                  Q&A (https://www.ncua.gov/Resources/Documents/                                        represents NCUA’s estimate of the recognizable                             scenarios, respectively. This estimate accounts for
                                                  QA-Corporate-Resolution-Costs-and-                                                    value under accounting rules at yearend 2017.                              any depleted member capital claims the other four
                                                  Assessments.pdf).                                                                       38 There are four asset management estates                               asset management estates have against the U.S.
                                                    37 These numbers represent both the $0.1 billion                                    projected to have recoveries for investors in                              Central asset management estate. However, all five
                                                  of net receivable due to NCUA and the $0.8 billion                                    depleted capital instruments of the failed                                 estates are currently expected to have outstanding
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Continued



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                                                  34988                                        Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 143 / Thursday, July 27, 2017 / Notices

                                                  B. Determining Equity Needed To Cover                                             developments into Share Insurance                                               federally insured credit unions using
                                                  Other Risks to the Equity Ratio of the                                            Fund drivers in a commonsense way                                               data from 1996 to 2016 for the
                                                  Share Insurance Fund 39                                                           using historical data that extends back                                         unemployment rate and house price
                                                                                                                                    to the early-to-mid 1990s. For example,                                         growth.40 As expected, a higher
                                                     NCUA uses the relevant variables                                               the equation for share growth relates                                           unemployment rate tends to increase
                                                  from the economic scenarios outlined                                              annual growth in total shares (inflation-                                       insurance losses, as does falling house
                                                  above to project the values of the three                                          adjusted) from 1991 to 2016 to the                                              prices. Then, the dollar value of losses
                                                  primary drivers of the Share Insurance                                            unemployment rate, the change in the                                            is projected as a constant percentage of
                                                  Fund: Insured share growth, insurance                                             average annual unemployment rate, the                                           the portion of shares in CAMEL 4 and
                                                  losses, and yield on investments. NCUA                                            change in the average annual three-                                             5 rated institutions.
                                                  developed regression equations that                                               month Treasury bill, and the year-to-                                              To determine the yield on the Share
                                                  relate the historical movements of                                                year growth in real disposable income.                                          Insurance Fund investment portfolio,
                                                  economic variables to movements in                                                In the equation, a rise in unemployment                                         interest rate inputs are taken directly
                                                  two of the primary drivers of the Share                                           first raises share growth, but continued                                        from the Adverse and Severely Adverse
                                                  Insurance Fund equity ratio: Insurance                                            high unemployment eventually leads to                                           stress scenarios. These inputs are
                                                  losses and growth in insured shares.                                              lower growth. Faster income growth                                              applied to the Share Insurance Fund’s
                                                  The equations translate the economic                                              tends to lead to faster share growth, and                                       investment portfolio assuming a seven-
                                                  conditions in the Adverse and Severely                                            a rising interest rate tends to reduce                                          year ladder.41 Table 7 outlines the
                                                  Adverse scenarios into projections of                                             share growth.                                                                   resulting inputs used each year of the
                                                  the level of losses and insured share                                                For the insurance loss equation,                                             projections for the key drivers to
                                                  growth. The equations are relatively                                              NCUA projects the portion of shares                                             forecast the equity ratio under the
                                                  straightforward and translate economic                                            accounted for by CAMEL 4 and 5 rated                                            various stress scenarios.42
                                                                                        TABLE 7—PROJECTED INPUTS FOR THE PRIMARY DRIVERS OF THE EQUITY RATIO 43
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Severely
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Base            Adverse           adverse

                                                  Insured Share Growth ........................................................................................................................................   2017:   5.10%       2017:   6.60%    2017:   6.92%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2018:   5.30%       2018:   6.30%    2018:   6.20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2019:   5.50%       2019:   4.20%    2019:   2.34%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2020:   5.60%       2020:   3.70%    2020:   1.66%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2021:   6.00%       2021:   3.90%    2021:   2.48%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2022:   5.70%       2022:   4.67%    2022:   3.90%
                                                  Insurance Losses (in millions) ...........................................................................................................................      2017:   $52.1       2017:   $142.0   2017:   $216.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2018:   $58.1       2018:   $311.2   2018:   $532.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2019:   $52.4       2019:   $257.8   2019:   $425.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2020:   $60.2       2020:   $202.8   2020:   $292.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2021:   $78.1       2021:   $164.2   2021:   $230.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2022:   $76.7       2022:   $188.6   2022:   $269.6
                                                  Yield on Investment Portfolio .............................................................................................................................     2017:   1.64%       2017:   1.56%    2017:   1.48%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2018:   1.92%       2018:   1.73%    2018:   1.49%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2019:   2.16%       2019:   1.84%    2019:   1.47%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2020:   2.40%       2020:   1.93%    2020:   1.47%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2021:   2.57%       2021:   2.00%    2021:   1.46%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2022:   2.74%       2022:   2.05%    2022:   1.51%



                                                    As shown above, insured share                                                   conditions. Toward the end of the stress                                        the yield on investments drops over the
                                                  growth rises initially as consumers                                               scenarios, growth begins to increase                                            first three years, and then increases as
                                                  move funds into safer, federally insured                                          reflecting some rebound in the overall                                          the economy begins to recover.
                                                  savings instruments—a pattern that is                                             economy. Insurance losses peak at the                                              The results of each stress scenario,
                                                  highly correlated to economic                                                     beginning of the economic stress and                                            expressed as the calendar yearend Share
                                                  downturns. After an initial surge,                                                then decline and stabilize over the                                             Insurance Fund equity ratio, are
                                                  growth in insured shares slows                                                    following years. Overnight rates drop to                                        included in Table 8 (based on the
                                                  reflecting worsening economic                                                     10 basis points for the entire period and                                       current equity ratio of 1.26 percent).44

                                                  senior creditor obligations, including to the                                        41 The interest rate inputs used were provided by                            Severely Adverse shocks begin in the second
                                                  Stabilization Fund (or Share Insurance Fund after                                 Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC (April 2017). These                                 quarter of 2017. Using these scenarios allows NCUA
                                                  closure) via the guaranty provided on the NGNs                                    inputs were used for two reasons: (1) The Federal                               to implement the full effects of the downturn
                                                  until 2021. Thus, until senior creditor obligations                               Reserve scenarios do not provide the yield on the                               scenarios developed by the Federal Reserve.
                                                  can be satisfied with certainty—that is repaid or                                 seven-year Treasury note, which NCUA uses in the                                   42 These are stress scenarios and do not represent
                                                  fully funded, including for contingencies—it would                                stress scenarios. Macroeconomic Advisers uses its
                                                  be inappropriate for NCUA to make payments to the                                 proprietary model to extend the Federal Reserve                                 forecasts of likely outcomes. Federal Reserve stress
                                                  subordinated depleted capital claimants.                                          scenarios to a wider array of economic variables,                               scenarios provide data through the first quarter of
                                                    39 The performance of the Share Insurance Fund                                  including the full yield curve. (2) Macroeconomic                               2020. These scenarios are extended through 2021 by
                                                  described here does not include the losses                                        Advisers advances the beginning of the Federal                                  Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC using a proprietary
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                                                  discussed above related to the claims on the                                      Reserve scenarios to the second quarter of 2017,                                model. NCUA assumes that values for the economic
                                                  corporate credit union asset management estates.                                  rather than beginning in the first quarter. This was                            variables in 2022 are the same as they were in 2021
                                                  The Share Insurance Fund performance is modeled                                   necessary because, when conducing analysis of the                               (for variables that are rates or growth rates).
                                                  here based on the current financial position,                                     Share Insurance Fund, first quarter data was already                               43 NCUA used the current budget growth of 4.1
                                                  without factoring in the potential Stabilization                                  known. Macroeconomic Advisers scenarios match
                                                  Fund closure.                                                                     the Federal Reserve scenarios for variables provided                            percent in each scenario as the operating expense
                                                    40 See Letter to Credit Unions 07–CU–12 CAMEL                                   by the Federal Reserve, but the timing is advanced                              input.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       44 Using the figures in Table 1 and Table 3 above,
                                                  Rating System for more information on NCUA’s                                      on quarter into the future relative to the published
                                                  CAMEL rating system.                                                              Federal Reserve scenarios, so that the Adverse and                              the calendar yearend equity ratio of the Share



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                                                                                                  Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 143 / Thursday, July 27, 2017 / Notices                                                                                                                 34989

                                                                                              TABLE 8—PROJECTED EQUITY RATIO UNDER VARIOUS ECONOMIC STRESSES 45
                                                                                                                                 2017q1                       2017                        2018                       2019                        2020                   2021              2022
                                                                                                                                   (%)                         (%)                         (%)                        (%)                         (%)                    (%)               (%)

                                                  Baseline .........................................................                        1.26                       1.26                        1.24                       1.24                        1.23                 1.23              1.23
                                                  Adverse .........................................................                         1.26                       1.25                        1.21                       1.18                        1.16                 1.15              1.14
                                                  Severely Adverse ..........................................                               1.26                       1.24                        1.18                       1.13                        1.11                 1.09              1.06



                                                     Neither the Adverse nor the Severely                                                   • Unusual or abnormally high                                                           will not need to impair their contributed
                                                  Adverse scenario causes the equity ratio                                                insured share growth materially                                                          capital deposit or pay premiums when
                                                  of the Share Insurance Fund to fall                                                     different from the historical correlation.                                               they can least afford it. The Board does
                                                  below 1.00 percent, the level at which                                                    • Economic conditions that involve                                                     not believe it should set the normal
                                                  credit union’s contributed capital                                                      greater volatility in one or more market                                                 operating level at a point where
                                                  deposit would begin to be impaired.46                                                   indicators as compared to the stress                                                     mandatory premiums or development of
                                                  However, by yearend 2019, under both                                                    scenarios modeled.                                                                       a Fund restoration plan would be
                                                  the Adverse and Severely Adverse                                                        C. Approach for Setting the Normal                                                       necessary in a moderate recession.48
                                                  scenarios, the equity ratio falls below                                                 Operating Level
                                                  1.20 percent—the statutory trigger for                                                                                                                                              The Board also considered the
                                                  either assessing premiums or                                                              The Board has the responsibility to be                                                 amount of equity necessary for the
                                                  developing a Share Insurance Fund                                                       prudent in managing the Share                                                            Share Insurance Fund to withstand a
                                                  restoration plan. Under the Adverse and                                                 Insurance Fund. In addition to                                                           severe global recession without having
                                                  Severely Adverse scenarios, for the                                                     maintaining public confidence in                                                         the equity ratio fall below 1.20 percent.
                                                  equity ratio to not fall below 1.20                                                     federal share insurance, it is important                                                 While the Severely Adverse stress
                                                  percent during the full projection                                                      that NCUA maintain a strong Share                                                        scenario is more conservative, the Board
                                                  timeframe, the equity ratio at yearend                                                  Insurance Fund for the mutual benefit of                                                 believes managing to the Adverse
                                                  2017 would have to be 1.33 percent and                                                  the credit union community and the                                                       scenario provides a good balance
                                                  1.41 percent, respectively.47 However,                                                  taxpayers. The Board believes that the                                                   between maintaining sufficient equity in
                                                  the actual results could vary from these                                                Share Insurance Fund should be able to                                                   the Share Insurance Fund and keeping
                                                  projections based on a variety of factors,                                              withstand a moderate recession without                                                   money at work in the credit union
                                                  including:                                                                              the equity ratio falling below 1.20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   community.
                                                     • Projected declines in the equity                                                   percent. This approach is consistent
                                                  ratio, even under no economic stress.                                                   with the Act’s minimum equity level for                                                     Based on the analyses above, Table 9
                                                     • Extraordinary losses and/or failures                                               the Share Insurance Fund set by                                                          shows the calculation of what the equity
                                                  in credit unions that are not market                                                    Congress. Additionally, it allows NCUA                                                   ratio needs to be to withstand a
                                                  related, such as those from fraud or                                                    to maintain a counter-cyclical posture,                                                  moderate and a severe recession without
                                                  other asset ‘‘bubbles’’.                                                                which helps to ensure that credit unions                                                 falling below 1.20 percent.
                                                                                            TABLE 9—EQUITY RATIO NEEDED TO WITHSTAND AN ECONOMIC STRESS BY RISK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Severely
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Adverse stress    adverse stress
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      scenario           scenario
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         (%)               (%)

                                                  Equity for Share Insurance Fund Stress ..................................................................................................................................................                                49 1.33               1.41
                                                  Equity for Claims on AMEs (see Table 6) ................................................................................................................................................                                     0.04              0.11
                                                  Projected Equity Ratio Decline in 2018 and 2019 (based on current performance trends) 50 ................................................................                                                                    0.02              0.02

                                                        Total ...................................................................................................................................................................................................              1.39          51 1.54




                                                    To withstand a moderate recession                                                     Fund’s equity ratio needs to be high                                                       • A 13 basis point decline in the
                                                  without the equity ratio falling below                                                  enough to withstand the following:                                                       equity ratio due to the impact on the
                                                  1.20 percent, the Share Insurance

                                                  Insurance Fund is projected to be 1.23 percent, if                                      funds to adjust their contributions back to a full one                                   above 1.30 percent. To date, the Board has
                                                  the Stabilization Fund is not closed in 2017.                                           percent of their insured shares.                                                         maintained the normal operating level at 1.30
                                                    45 These scenarios do not account for any                                               47 Similar results are obtained if the Share                                           percent, which has allowed NCUA to use the excess
                                                  substantial increase in NCUA’s operating budget or                                      Insurance Fund is stressed over two years using the                                      equity to help repay outstanding U.S. Treasury
                                                  increases in the loss rate of CAMEL 4 and 5 rated                                       highest observed stress factors during the last ten                                      borrowings.
                                                  credit unions, both of which may increase in times                                      years.                                                                                     50 The equity ratio has been declining over the
                                                                                                                                            48 The Board believes its authority to establish a
                                                  of economic stress.                                                                                                                                                              last several years and is expected to continue to
                                                    46 Credit unions’ one percent contributed capital
                                                                                                                                          Fund restoration plan in lieu of mandatory                                               decline because of the low yield on Share Insurance
                                                                                                                                          premiums should only be used for severe,
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                                                  deposits are included in the numerator of the equity                                                                                                                             Fund investments and strong insured share growth.
                                                                                                                                          unexpected circumstances. While the Board can
                                                  ratio and are available to absorb losses of the Share                                   develop a restoration plan to restore the Share                                          For additional information on the methodology
                                                  Insurance Fund. However, because the contributed                                        Insurance Fund to 1.20 percent within eight years                                        used to project the equity ratio using current trends,
                                                  capital deposits are recorded both as equity to the                                     (or longer in extraordinary circumstances), this                                         refer to the information provided at the November
                                                  Share Insurance Fund and as assets to credit                                            could necessitate one or more relatively large                                           2016 Open Board Meeting (https://www.ncua.gov/
                                                  unions, if NCUA were to use any part of this capital                                    premiums. Further, it could erode public                                                 About/Documents/Agenda%20Items/
                                                  to absorb losses, credit unions would have to write-                                    confidence in federal share insurance.                                                   AG20161117Item5a.pdf).
                                                  down (expense) this asset. At the same time, credit                                       49 The 2007 Board-approved policy would also                                             51 This exceeds the statutory maximum normal

                                                  unions would be required to deposit additional                                          result in a recommended normal operating level                                           operating level of 1.50 percent.



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                                                  34990                          Federal Register / Vol. 82, No. 143 / Thursday, July 27, 2017 / Notices

                                                  three primary drivers of the Share                       adjustment and opportunity for                        ACTION: Determination of the successful
                                                  Insurance Fund’s performance.                            comment. In soliciting comment, NCUA                  completion of inspections, tests, and
                                                    • A 4 basis point decline in the value                 will issue a report including data                    analyses.
                                                  of the Share Insurance Fund’s claim on                   supporting the proposal.
                                                  the corporate credit union asset                           The Board’s main objectives in setting              SUMMARY:   The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory
                                                  management estates.                                      the normal operating level are to:                    Commission (NRC) has determined that
                                                    • A 2 basis point decline in the equity                  • Retain public confidence in federal               the inspections, tests, and analyses have
                                                  ratio expected to occur prior to when                    share insurance,                                      been successfully completed, and that
                                                  the remaining NGNs begin to mature in                      • Prevent impairment of the one                     the specified acceptance criteria are met
                                                  2020 and remaining exposure to the                       percent contributed capital deposit, and              for the Virgil C. Summer Nuclear
                                                  Legacy Assets can begin to be reduced.                     • Ensure the Share Insurance Fund                   Station (VCSNS), Units 2 and 3.
                                                  This helps ensure the 4 basis points of                  can withstand a moderate recession                    DATES: The determination of the
                                                  additional equity to account for the                     without the equity ratio declining below              successful completion of inspections,
                                                  potential decline in value of the claims                 1.20 percent over a five-year period.                 tests, and analyses for VCSNS Units 2
                                                  on the asset management estates is                                                                             and 3 is effective July 27, 2017.
                                                  maintained in the Share Insurance Fund                   V. Request for Comment
                                                                                                                                                                 ADDRESSES: Please refer to Docket ID
                                                  until Legacy Assets can be sold.52                         The Board seeks comments on the                     NRC–2008–0441 when contacting the
                                                    Therefore, the Board proposes to set                   proposed closure of the Stabilization                 NRC about the availability of
                                                  the normal operating level at 1.39                       Fund in 2017 and the related approach                 information regarding this document.
                                                  percent. Based on the yearend equity                     for setting the normal operating level of             You may obtain publicly-available
                                                  ratio projections of 1.45 percent to 1.47                the Share Insurance Fund. Commenters                  information related to this document
                                                  percent from Table 3, this would result                  are also encouraged to discuss any other              using any of the following methods:
                                                  in an estimated initial Share Insurance                  relevant issues they believe the Board                   • Federal Rulemaking Web site: Go to
                                                  Fund distribution of 6 to 8 basis points                 should consider with respect to this                  http://www.regulations.gov and search
                                                  (approximately $600 to $800 million)                     matter. In particular, the Board is                   for Docket ID NRC–2008–0441. Address
                                                  paid in 2018.53                                          interested in comments on whether to:                 questions about NRC dockets to Carol
                                                  Policy for Setting the Normal Operating                    • Close the Stabilization Fund in                   Gallagher; telephone: 301–415–3463;
                                                  Level                                                    2017, close it at some future date, or                email: Carol.Gallagher@nrc.gov. For
                                                                                                           wait until it is currently scheduled to               technical questions, contact the
                                                    The Board retains the authority to                     close in 2021.                                        individual listed in the FOR FURTHER
                                                  reassess and set the normal operating                      • Set the normal operating level                    INFORMATION CONTACT section of this
                                                  level periodically, in particular when                   based on the Share Insurance Fund’s                   document.
                                                  there are changes in the risks to the                    ability to withstand a moderate                          • NRC’s Agencywide Documents
                                                  Share Insurance Fund’s equity ratio,                     recession. Or, should the Share                       Access and Management System
                                                  such as maturity of the NGNs. Based on                   Insurance Fund be able to withstand a                 (ADAMS): You may obtain publicly-
                                                  the approach discussed above, the                        severe recession.                                     available documents online in the
                                                  Board proposes to replace its current                      • Base the approach to setting the                  ADAMS Public Documents collection at
                                                  policy for setting the normal operating                  normal operating level on preventing                  http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/
                                                  level with the following.54                              the equity ratio from declining below                 adams.html. To begin the search, select
                                                    Periodically, NCUA will review the                     1.20 percent, or some other higher                    ‘‘ADAMS Public Documents’’ and then
                                                  equity needs of the Share Insurance                      minimum level.                                        select ‘‘Begin Web-based ADAMS
                                                  Fund and provide this analysis to                          Commenters are encouraged to                        Search.’’ For problems with ADAMS,
                                                  stakeholders. Board action is only                       provide the specific basis for their                  please contact the NRC’s Public
                                                  necessary when this review determines                    comments and, to the extent feasible,                 Document Room (PDR) reference staff at
                                                  that a change in the normal operating                    documentation to support any                          1–800–397–4209, 301–415–4737, or by
                                                  level is warranted. Any change to the                    recommendations.                                      email to pdr.resource@nrc.gov. The
                                                  normal operating level of more than 1                                                                          ADAMS accession number for each
                                                  basis point shall be made only after a                     By the National Credit Union
                                                                                                           Administration Board on July 20, 2017.                document referenced (if it is available in
                                                  public announcement of the proposed                                                                            ADAMS) is provided the first time that
                                                                                                           Gerard S. Poliquin,
                                                    52 The Board must consider retaining this equity       Secretary of the Board.                               it is mentioned in this document.
                                                  now, because as the equity ratio declines, the Board
                                                                                                                                                                    • NRC’s PDR: You may examine and
                                                                                                           [FR Doc. 2017–15686 Filed 7–26–17; 8:45 am]
                                                  would be unable to replenish the equity through                                                                purchase copies of public documents at
                                                                                                           BILLING CODE 7535–01–P
                                                  premium assessments as long as the equity ratio                                                                the NRC’s PDR, Room O1–F21, One
                                                  remains above 1.30 percent, per the Act. 12 U.S.C.                                                             White Flint North, 11555 Rockville
                                                  1782(c)(2)(B).
                                                    53 The 4 basis points of equity included for
                                                                                                                                                                 Pike, Rockville, Maryland 20852.
                                                                                                           NUCLEAR REGULATORY
                                                  covering losses on the Share Insurance Fund’s                                                                  FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
                                                                                                           COMMISSION
                                                  claims against the corporate asset management                                                                  Billy Gleaves, Office of New Reactors,
                                                  estates, along with any recognition permitted on the     [Docket Nos. 52–027 and 52–028; NRC–                  U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission,
                                                  outstanding balance of the $1 billion U.S. Central       2008–0441]
                                                  capital note (an estimated range of 2 to 5 basis                                                               Washington, DC 20555–0001; telephone:
                                                  points of equity), may be available for a future                                                               301–415–5848; email: Bill.Gleaves@
                                                  Share Insurance Fund distribution—provided it is         South Carolina Electric & Gas                         nrc.gov.
mstockstill on DSK30JT082PROD with NOTICES




                                                  not consumed by an increase in future legacy asset       Company, South Carolina Public
                                                  losses from an economic downturn or other losses         Service Authority; Virgil C. Summer                   SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
                                                  and factors affecting the equity ratio. Future           Nuclear Station, Units 2 and 3,
                                                  distributions also depend on any subsequent                                                                    I. Licensee Notification of Completion
                                                  changes the Board might make to the normal               Inspections, Tests, Analyses, and                     of ITAAC
                                                  operating level.                                         Acceptance Criteria
                                                    54 The current policy was approved at the                                                                      South Carolina Electric & Gas
                                                  December 3, 2007 NCUA Board meeting open to the          AGENCY:Nuclear Regulatory                             (SCE&G), on behalf of itself and the
                                                  public.                                                  Commission.                                           South Carolina Public Service


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Document Created: 2017-07-27 02:07:36
Document Modified: 2017-07-27 02:07:36
CategoryRegulatory Information
CollectionFederal Register
sudoc ClassAE 2.7:
GS 4.107:
AE 2.106:
PublisherOffice of the Federal Register, National Archives and Records Administration
SectionNotices
ActionNotice and request for comment.
DatesComments must be received on or before September 5, 2017 to be assured of consideration.
ContactAnthony Cappetta, Supervisory Financial Analyst, at 1775 Duke Street, Alexandria, VA 22314, or telephone: (703) 518-1592.
FR Citation82 FR 34982 

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